What will Dance field look like in 2018-19?

[haribobo]

Top 5- PapCiz, HubDon, Shibs, ChockBates, StepBukin
6-10- Gilles/Poirier?, Guignard/Fabbri, Zahorski/Guerreiro, F-B/Sorensen, Russian Team?

Probably done- Virtue/Moir, Weaver/Poje, Bobrova/Soloviev, Cappellini/LaNotte, Coomes/Buckland, SinKats?

 

[Ananas Astra]

I think Popova/Mozgov have good chances to climb up a bit and become the Russian No. 3 or even 2.

 

[nuge]

I hope W/P stay another year.

 

[skategal]

I hope W/P stay another year.

Yes, I think they will.

Dance is not secure enough in Canada going forward that Skate Canada doesn't need W/P.

I think W/P will be lobbied to stay in to help try (with G/P) to get 3 dance spots for Montreal worlds in 2020.

 

[Anyasnake]

I think this might be Guignard/Fabbri last season though. They're not that young anymore.

Coomes/Buckland might stay for another year, but I don't see them going for another cycle. It will be their 3rd Olympic this year already.

WeaPo might stay another 2 years they are going to worlds almost for sure.

And nobody knows the Shibs prospects. I know H/D and C/B want (so certainly WILL) continue.

I'm interested in how everyone will be placed actually : coach changes, relocation, etc...

 

[GreenGan]

Done almost 100% : Capellini/Lanotte, Virute/Moir. I can see Coomes/Buckland staying a little more as they didn't have great success due to injury, and Guignard/Fabbri have performed under C/L shadow too long not to appreciate few seasons for themselves imo. Bobrova/Soloviev will probably stop too. Sinitsina/Katsalapov, I wouldn't bet on it.

And I've read here and there (nothing official) that Andrew was tired and wanted to stop his amateur career but was convinced to continue until Pyeongchang... It could just be rumors to bash on his twizzles mistake, saying its because he lacks motivation though.

 

[SamuraiK]

And nobody knows the Shibs prospects. I know H/D and C/B want (so certainly WILL) continue.

..

I know everyone has the right to keep competing as long as they want but if the top 3 US teams stay its going to become too crowded for the bubbling under young teams and lots of really great ones will get lost before reaching major comps . Similar to what used to happen to Russian Ice Dance in their glory days.

 

[Anyasnake]

I know everyone has the right to say as long as they want but if the top 3 US teams stay its going to become too crowded for the bubbling under young teams and lots of really great ones will get lost before reaching major comps . Similar to what used to happen to Russian Ice Dance in their glory days.

Parsons/Parsons, Hawayek/Baker, Mcanamara/Carpenter, Pogrebinsky/Benoit, maybe Carreira/Ponomarenko next year, even Aldridge/Eaton (if they can find their junior sucess). That is quite the number.

 

[SamuraiK]

Parsons/Parsons, Hawayek/Baker, Mcanamara/Carpenter, Pogrebinsky/Benoit, maybe Carreira/Ponomarenko next year, even Aldridge/Eaton (if they can find their junior sucess). That is quite the number.

Exactly. Way too many with little room to sneak into the World Team and I dunno how many of those will be willing to keep spending their money to just skate at GPs and nothing else. Hawayek/Baker specially must be frustrated to spend another cycle as the pewter team.

 

[levineismine]

I don't know what the Shibs are planning, but given their multiple world medals and involvements with things outside skating, I don't see them staying in much longer, especially not a whole cycle. They may call it a career if they medal in Korea and have other opportunities outside skating.

 

[chapis]

Maia and Alex have not said anything about retirement, I guess they are not sure yet.

 

[starrynight]

And I've read here and there (nothing official) that Andrew was tired and wanted to stop his amateur career but was convinced to continue until Pyeongchang... It could just be rumors to bash on his twizzles mistake, saying its because he lacks motivation though.

That was literally just TSL and Dave Lease making things up, so I'd take that with an ocean of salt.

Who would have ever in a million years predicted the rise of P/C this time 4 years ago? Maybe there will be a top team that no one now even pays attention to? Maybe a team will be formed out of splits? Maybe a skater is right now planning on switching countries and that will make a big impact? It's always interesting to see how things shake out in the end.

For example I do wonder if the Russian ice dance program will have surprises for us. With the bottleneck of ice dance talent in the US will any of the skaters switch countries? Are there any potential splits simmering behind the surface?

I predict that with the Canadian dance field wide wide open after the retirement of VM and potentially WP that skaters from other countries will be looking to team up with Canadian partners.

With retirements, some teams who haven't gotten further than Nationals could well find themselves in the top 5 at 2019 worlds.

But it will be hard for the teams that experience success in the immediate departure of retirees - as they are never given due credit. (Case in point Weaver/Poje who did win two GPF titles and have had overall very strong results this quad).

 

[twizzletoes76]

Stepanova & Bukin-->they are the future!

Chock & Bates will have a serious decision to make--they have been putting out great material last two seasons but have yet to develop a fan base.

The Shibs, hopefully, will do well this season and then retire. I think they could benefit from a little independence.

 

[twizzletoes76]

I know everyone has the right to keep competing as long as they want but if the top 3 US teams stay its going to become too crowded for the bubbling under young teams and lots of really great ones will get lost before reaching major comps . Similar to what used to happen to Russian Ice Dance in their glory days.

Yes, this is true. And, Parsons/Parsons, McNam/Carp, Carr/Ponamerenko, & Hawayek/Baker are all promising teams who will need opportunities to develop.

 

[MAXSwagg]

The HUGE void that D/W and V/M left after 2014 along with the vast improvements and new style that Papadakis Cizeron has allowed them to shoot to the top. Also with judges help (though not unwarranted) because all the remaining top teams were rather played-out and dated...Weaver/Poje, Cappellini/Lanotte, Ilinykh/Katsalapov mess, Shibs, Chock/Bates. It was time for something fresh. PapCiz are greatly in the judges’ favor so I would be surprised if some relatively unknown young team suddenly shot up and overtook them.

 

[Anyasnake]

Yes, this is true. And, Parsons/Parsons, McNam/Carp, Carr/Ponamerenko, & Hawayek/Baker are all promising teams who will need opportunities to develop.

In a way, you need 4CC and Worlds to develop. That is the big "issue" with the US. It's not just visibility, it's skating in a massive arena with a lot of competition and big pressure.
Also since Ice Dance isn't like single, you can be the best team ever, you still need to go to 4CC and not skip it not to lose momentum, visibility, and a big opportunity to develop your programs which has to peak at Worlds.
I wished H/B switched for UK I would have said France a couple of years ago, but #2 and #3 are progressing so fast, so no point. We need teams to skate for countries like the Virgin Islands, Barbados... Or South Africa. (Off-topic : I wish some nations had a bump in skating culture the way Spain did )

 

[legjumper]

Chock & Bates will have a serious decision to make--they have been putting out great material last two seasons but have yet to develop a fan base.

I think the idea that Chock/Bates have no fan base or aren't that liked is mainly on the boards. Whenever I have seen them skate live, they are always well-received by the audience. They are not embraced by the (American) audience the same way the Shibs are - but no other U.S. team is, and that includes current board darlings Hubbell/Donohue. The team that American audiences seem to love second-most is Hawayek/Baker.

I would be surprised if all three current top American teams stayed for another full four years. That is a long time to have to fend off hungry youngsters, especially ones with already formidable skill sets and plenty of growth left ahead, like McNamara/Carpenter and Carreira/Ponomarenko.

 

[starrynight]

Chock/Bates have a solid online fan base on other platforms such as Tumblr and Instagram. If you're a fan of a team that isn't one of the 2 or 3 currently in-fashion teams on forums, usually it's a lot more enjoyable to move elsewhere.

Chock and Bates have had success with their free dance this year. They have had the top FD score in the two head to heads with the 3 US teams. Nothing to sneeze at.

 

[slipchuk]

I could see the Shibutanis retiring after this season. I wouldnt say it is set in stone but the odds are probably decent.

I could see Chock & Bates possibly too, although they seem more sure about continuing, but they have gradually dropped each year for awhile now. It could depend on their result at the Games which could easily be as low as 6th or 7th if others perform well, and it wont take a disaester like worlds last year either.

Hubbell & Donohue are the only ones of the top 3 U.S teams I am sure will continue, even if all 3 might. I agree with the above poster though that no way all 3 continue right until 2022.

I think Virtue & Moir, Cappellini & Lanotte, Bobrova & Soloviev are for sure done. Weaver & Poje are harder to say. I could see them continuing, especialy as their time as Canadian #1 was wrecked by V&M's completely unexpected return. I also agree with the person who said Skate Canada will lobby them to stay. It could depend too on their Games result and what they think their prospects are going forward.

 

[Dobre]

How kind of everyone to worry about the young teams.

They had good opportunities this season. Teams that scored or placed high enough and wished to do so went to five international events, plus Nationals, and three teams are now attending Four Continents. Those teams are all well-seasoned competitors--via the regular GP and JGP seasons.

It's true that you need experience. It's different competing in front of the larger crowds on the GP and skating in warm-up groups with the likes of Virtue & Moir and Papadakis & Cizeron.

Something these young teams also did this season.

I think perhaps people should not worry so much about them. Watching practice & sitting in the stands during the competition at Nationals, I can tell you these athletes looked good. They looked ready. They fit right in. They don't have the polish & expertise of the top three yet, but they skate fast. They negotiate a crowded rink full of high-level teams with the adeptness of seasoned competitors. (And there were quite a number of teams at U.S. Nationals who didn't). It was so easy to see the difference live during the competition. The crowd around me didn't know most of the dance teams, but you could hear the whispers as we shifted from the less experienced senior teams to the young ones battling for 4CCs. People could see it.

Four years is a long time. If you're good enough, you can climb the ranks, with or without retirements.

 

[Willin]

I think V/M, C/L, Gilles/Poirer and probably C/B are retiring. I wonder if Chris Reed will retire, but maybe his partner will continue? I'd bet Hubbell and Donahue are done if they win the Olympic bronze, but if they don't I think they'll stay in for another year or two to get a medal - they're in their late 20s so I don't think they'll stay the who Olympic cycle. The Shibutanis have talked about retiring quite a bit before this season, so one wonders if they'll do it (especially now that their "trilogy" is done.) Whatever the case is, I expect a lot of retirements.

As for who I think will stay - Papadikis and Cizeron for sure. Hawayek and Baker just had a breakthrough this year and have finally started to find a style that fits them, so I think they'll continue for at least the next four years. I think Weaver and Poje are in the same boat as H/D - older but might stay in it for a World medal or two - especially since it must feel awful to think you're Canada number 1 going into Pyeongchang and then have a combination of your own mistakes and V/M coming back into the picture.

 

[SLIVER]

G/Poirier? Why would they retire now when coast is clear, definitely will be staying on. Same for H/D regardless of a medal at Olys or not.

 

[topaz]

Well I am excited for new cycle. I hope P/C stay I would love to see them develop. Hubbell/Donahue are staying, they've said as much. If all three teams stay in the US, I think it would be fabulously competitive. The 2nd tier teams for US need time to develop - Parsons, M/C, P/B. H/B need to time to work on their SS.

Italy - I like G/F(ITA) a lot. I would like to see them continue to develop.

Russia - If Bobova retires or takes a break I think Dmitri will skate with Victoria S or Elena I. S/B will be in the mix and I want to see P/M develop. I think Pavel D needs to a new partner.

Danes - I hope they stay, I really like this team.

ETA: Canada's Gilles/Poirier HAVE to stay or Canadian ice dance is off the map.

V/M's return completely threw Canada's dance teams in confusion. It effect WeaPo, G/P and other teams. Some teams knew that their chance at an Olympic berth was immediately dashed. Granted V/M decided to come back but I don't think Skate Canada thought or knew how this would effect their future post 2018 Olympics.

 

[starrynight]

I doubt Gilles/Poirier are contemplating retirement. Given that VM are gone and WP will only maybe do another season or two at most (if that) they have a clear shot at a string of Canadian titles unless another team rises up.

 

[Anyasnake]

Dmitri will not skate with Elena I.
That's almost against everything he stands for
With Victoria ? Why ? Maybe qhe could continue with Nikita if his mental allows him too.

 

[caseyedwards]

Since no Russian team seems to be planning a move to Montreal or Detroit area like everyone else in dance Russia is finished for a generation!

 

[Vash01]

I hope Weaver and Poje will continue.

 

[RoseRed]

I think this might be Guignard/Fabbri last season though. They're not that young anymore.

Coomes/Buckland might stay for another year, but I don't see them going for another cycle. It will be their 3rd Olympic this year already.

WeaPo might stay another 2 years they are going to worlds almost for sure.

And nobody knows the Shibs prospects. I know H/D and C/B want (so certainly WILL) continue.

I'm interested in how everyone will be placed actually : coach changes, relocation, etc...

Who ends up in Montreal when Tessa and Scott retire? I'm sure they'll have plenty of teams calling them. Not that Montreal is the solution for every team, but I tend to really like all the Gadbois teams, so I'm looking forward to seeing who ends up there. They currently have teams from Canada, France, Spain, the USA, Denmark, Japan, Great Britain (part time). I wonder if it'll be a new country.

I think V/M, C/L, Gilles/Poirer and probably C/B are retiring. I wonder if Chris Reed will retire, but maybe his partner will continue? I'd bet Hubbell and Donahue are done if they win the Olympic bronze, but if they don't I think they'll stay in for another year or two to get a medal - they're in their late 20s so I don't think they'll stay the who Olympic cycle. The Shibutanis have talked about retiring quite a bit before this season, so one wonders if they'll do it (especially now that their "trilogy" is done.) Whatever the case is, I expect a lot of retirements.

As for who I think will stay - Papadikis and Cizeron for sure. Hawayek and Baker just had a breakthrough this year and have finally started to find a style that fits them, so I think they'll continue for at least the next four years. I think Weaver and Poje are in the same boat as H/D - older but might stay in it for a World medal or two - especially since it must feel awful to think you're Canada number 1 going into Pyeongchang and then have a combination of your own mistakes and V/M coming back into the picture.

They might if they're healthy/relatively injury free. Zach and Maddy are both about 4 years younger than Scott, for example. Anna Cappellini is four years older than H/D and Luca is 6. I'm not saying they will keep going for another cycle, but they could.

 

[Anyasnake]

Who ends up in Montreal when Tessa and Scott retire?

The one million dollar question I vote for an Asian team. If they're clever, Chinese.

 

[Spun Silver]

I don't know what the Shibs are planning, but given their multiple world medals and involvements with things outside skating, I don't see them staying in much longer, especially not a whole cycle. They may call it a career if they medal in Korea and have other opportunities outside skating.

I don't see them retiring. All their "outside skating"opportunities are actually skating-related. I see them continuing to bring new audiences to skating, to grow artistically and technically, and to fight for the top of the podium. At least that's my hope.