U.S. Women [#6]: The More the Merrier!

[haribobo]

Ahh, thank you! This list actually provides some great info for comparing skaters, although I absolutely hate the idea of fabricating lower scores as a way of somehow negging the skaters who have not had as many competition opportunities. I mean I get that some score is better than a 0, but this is truly a bizarre way to compare skaters.

 

[Joubabe]

I don’t think Levito is a shoo-in if she finishes fourth or lower at Nationals, and the top three are Glenn, Liu, and Everhardt. Or possibly Lin-Gracey.

If that happens, I think the USFS will look at the point totals. If it’s one or two points difference v. third, Levito may get the benefit of the doubt. If it’s ten, I think the skaters I mentioned have done enough. Something in between would be very tough especially if it’s versus Everhardt, who has barely put a foot wrong this season.

I have to think Andrews and Thorngren have taken themselves out of contention entirely with their fall skates.

I respectfully disagree as to Isabeau. If she’s healthy she goes to Worlds. USFA would be idiots to send untried newbies like Sarah and Elyse over someone with the proven track record of Isabeau.

Sarah did great in the Grand Prix with 2 fourths but she didn’t medal. Elyce had a highly respectable 6th and 7th place finish. As promising as they are, do you really believe either one of them would finish top ten at Worlds? I don’t.

Isabeau had one fall at Skate America and won bronze. Better than any US lady than Amber.

 

[layman]

I respectfully disagree as to Isabeau. If she’s healthy she goes to Worlds. USFA would be idiots to send untried newbies like Sarah and Elyse over someone with the proven track record of Isabeau.

Sarah did great in the Grand Prix with 2 fourths but she didn’t medal. Elyce had a highly respectable 6th and 7th place finish. As promising as they are, do you really believe either one of them would finish top ten at Worlds? I don’t.

Isabeau had one fall at Skate America and won bronze. Better than any US lady than Amber.

...but Sarah, Elyce and Amber (for the most part) make their jumps look easy and effortless (even though they are not) while Isabeau's jumps look like a struggle. That's the difference good technique can make. I would go with technique (when making decisions about who to send to Worlds).

 

[Karen-W]

Ahh, thank you! This list actually provides some great info for comparing skaters, although I absolutely hate the idea of fabricating lower scores as a way of somehow negging the skaters who have not had as many competition opportunities. I mean I get that some score is better than a 0, but this is truly a bizarre way to compare skaters.

Yeah, I'm not a huge fan of it either - it punishes skaters who are injured and only wind up doing 1 event in the category because it lowers not only their likely score but also their average score. I'm not sure what would be a better way of comparing the skaters though - plus, this isn't necessarily for comparison purposes so much as it is to establish who is in the USFS Selection Pool.

Going into Nats, we're looking at the following skaters in the Selection Pool for ISU Championships -

Worlds & 4CCs -
Top 5 based on the tables above - Glenn, Levito, Tennell, Everhardt, Lin-Gracey
Top 5 at Nats - TBD
Top 10 at 2024 Worlds - Levito, Glenn
2022 Olympian - Liu
Top 24 current Sr WS - Levito, Glenn, Lin-Gracey, Ziegler, Thorngren

Jr Worlds -
Top 5 based on the tables above (excluding jr-age eligible seniors who do not have Jr Worlds CTES mins) - Higase-Chen, von Felten, Everhardt, Lin-Gracey, J Lee
Top 3 age-eligible Sr Nats - TBD
Top 3 age-eligible Jr Nats - TBD
Top 10 at 2024 Jr Worlds - Zhang
Top 24 current Jr WS - J Lee, Zhang

I respectfully disagree as to Isabeau. If she’s healthy she goes to Worlds. USFA would be idiots to send untried newbies like Sarah and Elyse over someone with the proven track record of Isabeau.

Sarah did great in the Grand Prix with 2 fourths but she didn’t medal. Elyce had a highly respectable 6th and 7th place finish. As promising as they are, do you really believe either one of them would finish top ten at Worlds? I don’t.

Isabeau had one fall at Skate America and won bronze. Better than any US lady than Amber.

Isabeau's score at SkAm was also lower than Sarah's score at GPdF, so there is that to consider. Additionally, Sarah's SB is easily something that would place her around 8th or 9th at Worlds compared to the other women likely to be at Worlds. Elyce's SB is even better. Do I think Elyce would replicate her SB at Worlds? Her performances on the GP were nervy and make me think it isn't likely. Sarah's scores are much more consistent and even her lowest GP score would have placed her 9th at Worlds last year.

Yes, a healthy Isabeau is a safer bet than an untested Sarah or Elyce, but I wouldn't send Isabeau to Worlds without seeing how she looks at 4CCs if she doesn't skate clean at Nats.

 

[MacMadame]

Yeah, I'm not a huge fan of it either - it punishes skaters who are injured and only wind up doing 1 event in the category because it lowers not only their likely score but also their average score. I'm not sure what would be a better way of comparing the skaters though - plus, this isn't necessarily for comparison purposes so much as it is to establish who is in the USFS Selection Pool.

I think the better way is to do things like use top 1 or 2 scores and throw the rest out or, better yet, the average of all scores in that category.

That way if someone does 5 and someone does 1, they each get 1 score either their top score or their average score.

 

[Private Citizen]

@layman, rightly or wrongly, good technique isn't among the criteria for selection to the World team.

Levito has a world silver medal in her favor, and that's a big element in her favor.

But there are lots of smaller elements not in her favor: she only competed in one Grand Prix event, with mixed performances. She struggled in her Challenger events, losing to both Everhardt and Lin-Gracey. She struggled at last year's Nationals and last year's GPF and didn't compete at Four Continents.

I'd modify @Joubabe's statement to say "if she's healthy and she skates a strong performance at Nationals, she goes to Worlds. She needs a good Nationals performance to solidify her case.

She's a shoo-in if she medals at Nationals. If she's a close fourth to age-eligible skaters, I think she'll still get the nod. But if she has uneven programs and finishes fourth or lower with a large point gap v. the third best age-eligible skater, the World silver is going to start to look like an outlier among her past two season performances.

Overall, I'd say she has very good odds, but there is a 10-20% chance of her being left off the team even if healthy.

 

[layman]

@layman, rightly or wrongly, good technique isn't among the criteria for selection to the World team.

Levito has a world silver medal in her favor, and that's a big element in her favor.

But there are lots of smaller elements not in her favor: she only competed in one Grand Prix event, with mixed performances. She struggled in her Challenger events, losing to both Everhardt and Lin-Gracey. She struggled at last year's Nationals and last year's GPF and didn't compete at Four Continents.

I'd modify @Joubabe's statement to say "if she's healthy and she skates a strong performance at Nationals, she goes to Worlds. She needs a good Nationals performance to solidify her case.

She's a shoo-in if she medals at Nationals. If she's a close fourth to age-eligible skaters, I think she'll still get the nod. But if she has uneven programs and finishes fourth or lower with a large point gap v. the third best age-eligible skater, the World silver is going to start to look like an outlier among her past two season performances.

Overall, I'd say she has very good odds, but there is a 10-20% chance of her being left off the team even if healthy.

When Alysa Liu started to struggle technically (at around the age of 15), she sought out and received the technical help that she needed. It made all the difference. It's why she is still skating today.

I am heartened that Mia Kalin has now made the same decision. I hope that Isabeau will too. After all, she already has a World Medal. The bigger picture (goal) would be an Olympic medal next season. She needs (outside) help to achieve that (goal).

 

[Joubabe]

@layman, rightly or wrongly, good technique isn't among the criteria for selection to the World team.

Levito has a world silver medal in her favor, and that's a big element in her favor.

But there are lots of smaller elements not in her favor: she only competed in one Grand Prix event, with mixed performances. She struggled in her Challenger events, losing to both Everhardt and Lin-Gracey. She struggled at last year's Nationals and last year's GPF and didn't compete at Four Continents.

I'd modify @Joubabe's statement to say "if she's healthy and she skates a strong performance at Nationals, she goes to Worlds. She needs a good Nationals performance to solidify her case.

She's a shoo-in if she medals at Nationals. If she's a close fourth to age-eligible skaters, I think she'll still get the nod. But if she has uneven programs and finishes fourth or lower with a large point gap v. the third best age-eligible skater, the World silver is going to start to look like an outlier among her past two season performances.

Overall, I'd say she has very good odds, but there is a 10-20% chance of her being left off the team even if healthy.

I can’t argue with the points you’ve made but we haven’t talked about PCS.

At SA Isabeau’s PCS we’re:

34.01
67.82

Elyce: SA 30.40
60.75

SC 29.94
59.22

Sarah: Fr 30.69
61.98

Finlanda 29.65
59.62

So Isabeau has around an 11 point advantage in PCS. I’d say that’s significant.

 

[Karen-W]

I can’t argue with the points you’ve made but we haven’t talked about PCS.

At SA Isabeau’s PCS we’re:

34.01
67.82

Elyce: SA 30.40
60.75

SC 29.94
59.22

Sarah: Fr 30.69
61.98

Finlanda 29.65
59.62

So Isabeau has around an 11 point advantage in PCS. I’d say that’s significant.

And, yet, she's giving that PCS advantage away with her TES issues...

 

[Joubabe]

And, yet, she's giving that PCS advantage away with her TES issues...

She won a GP medal while Sarah, Elyce, Bradie, and Alisa did not. Others may be ready to throw Isabeau under the bus but I am not.
I don’t believe that she is washed up at the ripe old age of 17. We shall see.

 

[skatinggold]

She won a GP medal while Sarah, Elyce, Bradie, and Alisa did not. Others may be ready to throw Isabeau under the bus but I am not.
I don’t believe that she is washed up at the ripe old age of 17. We shall see.

It's her jump technique that is washing her up at 17. Without the support of USFS since they are supporting Amber now, do you think she will still be getting those inflated PCS scores.

 

[kwanfan1818]

I don't know about her speed or glide or what she deserves for SS, because I've never seen her live, but Levito is a very expressive and stylish skater in general, and I don't see where her other PCS are inflated. Top skaters don't have that much variation in PCS, even when they have technical difficulty, unless they struggle for a long time. It's the way Jason Brown has kept his career going. When she skates "poorly", Levito is still averaging mid-80's. Maybe if Lin-Gracey or Everhardt is named to the World team and skates blinders at 4C's she'd have a chance of 8's at Worlds, but probably not without doing that.

Levito has only been off the podium twice in her senior international career: at her first Worlds and at last year's GPF, where she had a very weak SP. And that includes all three competitions she was in this season.

Her Skate America score this year was 14 points under last year's SA score, with most of that drop in the SP, where she hasn't broken 70 yet in 2024-5. She has been 3/3 with total scores in the mid-high 190's, which is around what Higuchi and Yoshida scored at GPF. There are only six Women who averaged over 200 points in their two GP events: Sakamoto, Glenn, Higuchi, Chiba, Kim, and Sumiyoshi. Yoshida averaged 195, barely above Levito's 194+.

At this point in the season, Levito is second in WS points. If she doesn't compete at 4C's, only Yoshida and Kim can pass her with 4C's points, and Hendrickx with a combination of Euros podium and points from one or two internationals. (She has two open slots.) Neither Glenn nor Chiba can catch her with a combination of a win at 4C's and at an open slot international. The worst she can start is first in the last group in Boston. Her 68 SP score from Skate America would have put her in the final group in Montreal, and that's without Championships inflation. Her 61+ at Nebelhorn would have put her in the third-to-last group with Kurakova, Mikutina, Chiba, Schizas, and Taljegard, again, without Championship last group inflation. And, yes, different judging panels, etc., and scores tend to rise at championships, but as general benchmarks, I don't see how she skated so badly this season, especially since no one but Glenn has shown any consistency.

It's plausible that she's injured. It's plausible that she's in the middle of a growth spurt and has lost confidence in where her center of gravity is. We just don't know where she is now. But if she's skating decently by Nationals, I don't see her being off the team. We keep waiting for Liu to hit her stride, and we knows she's a competitor, but she's not there yet either.

 

[Evgeniafan]

I don't know about her speed or glide or what she deserves for SS, because I've never seen her live, but Levito is a very expressive and stylish skater in general, and I don't see where her other PCS are inflated. Top skaters don't have that much variation in PCS, even when they have technical difficulty, unless they struggle for a long time. It's the way Jason Brown has kept his career going. When she skates "poorly", Levito is still averaging mid-80's. Maybe if Lin-Gracey or Everhardt is named to the World team and skates blinders at 4C's she'd have a chance of 8's at Worlds, but probably not without doing that.

Levito has only been off the podium twice in her senior international career: at her first Worlds and at last year's GPF, where she had a very weak SP. And that includes all three competitions she was in this season.

Her Skate America score this year was 14 points under last year's SA score, with most of that drop in the SP, where she hasn't broken 70 yet in 2024-5. She has been 3/3 with total scores in the mid-high 190's, which is around what Higuchi and Yoshida scored at GPF. There are only six Women who averaged over 200 points in their two GP events: Sakamoto, Glenn, Higuchi, Chiba, Kim, and Sumiyoshi. Yoshida averaged 195, barely above Levito's 194+.

At this point in the season, Levito is second in WS points. If she doesn't compete at 4C's, only Yoshida and Kim can pass her with 4C's points, and Hendrickx with a combination of Euros podium and points from one or two internationals. (She has two open slots.) Neither Glenn nor Chiba can catch her with a combination of a win at 4C's and at an open slot international. The worst she can start is first in the last group in Boston. Her 68 SP score from Skate America would have put her in the final group in Montreal, and that's without Championships inflation. Her 61+ at Nebelhorn would have put her in the third-to-last group with Kurakova, Mikutina, Chiba, Schizas, and Taljegard, again, without Championship last group inflation. And, yes, different judging panels, etc., and scores tend to rise at championships, but as general benchmarks, I don't see how she skated so badly this season, especially since no one but Glenn has shown any consistency.

It's plausible that she's injured. It's plausible that she's in the middle of a growth spurt and has lost confidence in where her center of gravity is. We just don't know where she is now. But if she's skating decently by Nationals, I don't see her being off the team. We keep waiting for Liu to hit her stride, and we knows she's a competitor, but she's not there yet either.

I have seen her live. She is a beautiful skater, she has 2 wonky jumps, the rest are fine. Her spins are gorgeous.

 

[pointbleu]

Well, just a moment ago my very best friend here privately texted me this information

Alissa’s score total was 180.

Rachel Flatt in 6th with a 127 total!!!

Things have changed a lot in the last decade or so

Sure things have changed a lot but on the other hand you are comparing almost two different notation systems… The base marks have changed, the levels, the weigh of of the first versus the second…

 

[haribobo]

I created averages of the 3 highest scores (or 2 scores if only 2 competitions) for Senior Women

INTERNATIONAL
Amber Glenn 213
Sarah Everhardt 197
Elyce Lin-Gracey 196
Isabeau Levito 195
Alysa Liu 193
Bradie Tennell 193
Lindsay Thorngren 172
Logan Higase-Chen 168 (jr comps)
Josephine Lee 165 (jr comps)
Starr Andrews 161
Sonja Hilmer 154
Clare Seo 147

NATIONAL SCORES
Starr Andrews 184
Logan Higase-Chen 181
Elyce Lin-Gracey 176
Josephine Lee 174
Mia Kalin 172
Sherry Zhang 171
Sonja Hilmer 171
Alina Bonillo 166
Ting Cui 159
Alexa Gasparotto 156 (1st alt for nats)
Alex Evans 150

Interestingly, Starr and Sonja were about 20 pts lower internationally, but Elyce was 20 points higher! Logan 13 pts higher nationally but she only did Jr events internationally. Josephine about 10 pts higher nationally but also only did jr internationals.

 

[BittyBug]

I have seen her live. She is a beautiful skater, she has 2 wonky jumps, the rest are fine. Her spins are gorgeous.

I've seen her live several times, and even without her jump issues I am conflicted about her skating. She has many exquisite qualities - carriage, extension, precision, and a delicate presence - but my impression of her skating is that she skates like someone who did ballet first and skating second. She has an emphasis on hyper extension that creates lovely positions (as it would at the barre), but by accenting every move with extreme stretch she creates a staccato quality to her skating. So she hits gorgeous positions but to my eye her movement does not flow seamlessly.

She also has deep sweeping edges, but to me she always looks like she's thinking through her skating - "and now I'll point my toe" - as opposed to someone like Rino Matsuike - admittedly a rare talent - whose movements just melt from one to the next. Levito is like rain drops, while Matsuike is like a river flowing.

 

[kwanfan1818]

Lin-Gracey hit one Glenn-like score that raised her average; otherwise she’s been a scores low-mid 180’s skater. Everhardt, Liu, and Tennell have shown consistency like Levito.

Lin-Gracey is currently WS 20, or at least 18 net, because there are five Japanese women above her. There’s an off-chance she could climb to the penultimate SP if she makes the podium at 4C’s and a bunch of women above her get low Euros points, but she’d more likely start in the third-from-last group. Tennell (30) and Everhardt (35) would likely be in the fourth- or fifth-from-last after all of the extra Japanese, US, and Korean and/or non-age-eligible Women are removed, with Tennell having experience in getting 8’s in PCS while not being completely back to form. Liu is buried in WS, but she is the least likely to have that affect her.

Starting earlier doesn’t pre-ordain a first-timer’s 10-14: while there are only five groups at the Olympics with different pressure, Edmunds started in 12/30 at Sochi and finished 7th in the SP. But then she started 11/33 at 2014 Worlds, and placed 12th in the SP the next month.

 

[jlai]

regardless, Levito doesn't seem to have the world silver medalist bump internationally that other medalists sometimes get. So nationals is where she will prove her case, like most others.

 

[haribobo]

JUNIOR WOMEN NATIONAL SCORES AVERAGE (of top 3 scores or top 2 if only 2)

Cleo Park 180
Sophie Joline Von Felten 173
Annika Chao 170
Jessica Jurka 169
Emilia Nemirovsky 167
Sofia Bezkorovainaya 165
Alayna Coats 163
Skylar Lautowa-Peguero 163
Ela Cui 156
Jiaying Ellyse Johnson 156
Angela Shao 156 ***
Teryn Kim 153
Kaya Tiernan 149 ***
Annabelle Wilkins 144 ***
Mia Iwase 142***
Hannah Kim 141 ***
Maria Platonova 128
Carina Tanabe 114 ***


***= NOVICE SCORES

 

[kwanfan1818]

Levito has kept her silver international medalist PCS, even when she’s struggled technically and has been hit harder by the technical panel. If it’s hard to rely on the technical panel to call edges and rotations, why would you trust the judges to do it if the impression of her skating is what the judges are marking? I might prefer the way Everhardt jumps to Levito every moment of every day, but I can’t deny Levito’s charisma, attention to detail, and engagement, while Everhardt’s PCS are dependent on delivering technically because she’s still pretty stony as a performer.

 

[Private Citizen]

I think we’re all saying essentially the same thing re: Levito and (like good skating fans ) getting caught up with splitting hairs.

But if anyone thinks she should go to Worlds even if she bombs Nationals, do speak up. All of the rest of us keep saying the same thing in immaterially different ways — i.e., she’s a near lock if she shows up at Nationals and skates decently.

 

[kwanfan1818]

I don’t think that’s what everyone is saying. I think there are arguments for a Glenn-Lin-Gracey-Everhardt team if they skate really well at US Nats, and Levito is only decent in a top 4-5. And I don’t mean if she’s 5th, but with a three-point spread between 2nd or 3rd and 5th.

The question is what is “decent”? And what is an acceptable gap between 1-3 and her placement, if she’s pewter or below?

 

[Rukia]

I don't think anything Lin-Gracey has done this fall is going to warrant her a place over say Liu or Tennell even if she places higher at us nats. She's had 1 good comp and the rest have been not what you want to see from a world team member.

On the other hand I saw someone on a different site say Amber was going to have to earn a place on the worlds team which is honestly hilarious. She won both her grand prix competitions and the grand prix final. How is this even a discussion?

 

[Private Citizen]

I don’t think that’s what everyone is saying. I think there are arguments for a Glenn-Lin-Gracey-Everhardt team if they skate really well at US Nats, and Levito is only decent in a top 4-5. And I don’t mean if she’s 5th, but with a three-point spread between 2nd or 3rd and 5th.

Well what you wrote is what I’m saying and I’d include Liu, too.

I think it’s also what other people are saying, but maybe I’m wrong. I don’t think anyone is saying Levito should go if she’s 6th or 7th or even if she’s 4th and 10 points behind the third eligible skater of the above.

Maybe there are edge case scenarios where people might disagree - Levito finishes fourth, five points behind Lin-Gracey - but I think most people are aligned that Levito needs to show up at Nationals and skate well. And that she’d get some benefit over Lin-Gracey and (to a lesser extent) Everhardt or Liu on body of work.

The question is what is “decent”? And what is an acceptable gap between 1-3 and her placement, if she’s pewter or below?

I’d say similar to any of her fall performances, and maximum five points.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Right now, my Worlds team is Amber, Alysa, and Sarah whereas my Junior Worlds team is Sophie and Elyce.

As I was thinking about this yesterday, this was pretty much my selection for both of the teams. But I need to think about it a little bit more, because I do think Isabeau will be on the team but these were the exact people I have for the teams.

I really wish Ava was competing and doing good.

 

[Allskate]

Well what you wrote is what I’m saying and I’d include Liu, too.

I think it’s also what other people are saying, but maybe I’m wrong.

I think that's what most people believe. But, there are one or two people whose posting history makes it clear would still trash Isabeau if she medaled at the Olympics and would be very unhappy with her selection to any World or Olympic team no matter what.

We don't know what Isabeau's injury situation is or how much training she may or may not be missing. And we don't know how she and the other skaters will perform under the pressure of Nationals. (Isabeau was incredibly stressed out when she was trying to defend her title last season.)

Personally, I hope Isabeau earns a spot on the Worlds team. I won't pretend that I love her lutz, but I do love watching her skate. I'm so glad Amber is doing well this season and I'm so happy to see her improving the mental side of her game (even though I liked her music and programs from last season more). I actually prefer Alysa's skating now over her pre-retirement skating. Most of the others don't hold much interest for me this season even though it's nice to see more depth and improvement among the Americans. (It's really unfortunate that Ava has not been able to compete.) As of now, I'm hoping that Isabeau, Amber, and Alysa earn the spots for Worlds.

 

[Aceon6]

I don’t think Levito is done, but she needs to show two complete skates at Nationals… jumps rotated and no biffed spins. If she’s not physically and mentally there, we’re better off with Glenn, Liu and Everhardt.

 

[Coco]

I wouldn't give up on Bradie just yet and I'm not sure I trust Alyssa's rotations yet, either.

I wish I could go to Nationals this year as it is going to be a fascinating competition.

Just hoping for good, consistent calling and judging.

 

[Maximillian]

Yeah, this all seems a little silly, outside of the fact that Levito will probably not replace another skater who finished ahead of her at Nationals on the World team. The only skater who has that luxury is Glenn, otherwise everything must be done on the ice at Nats.

 

[Allskate]

I don’t think Levito is done, but she needs to show two complete skates at Nationals… jumps rotated and no biffed spins.

Like all the women at the GP Final? I think all of them had pops or falls or under-rotations or step-outs, including the winner. Some people really do hold Isabeau to a different standard.