The Dance Hall 6: We're All Off Our Rockers 2018-2019

[Spun Silver]

I can't remember who, and I can't remember if this was the thread, but someone was looking for English language commentary for European's. This channel popped up a few days ago and has been posting British Eurosport videos.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCq9DYbp00bdT2eGtj7UlAOw/videos

Thanks! You may have been thinking of me - I'm dying to see the BESP version of the Poles' FD but so far this channel only has a Slovak version. I'll keep checking back.

 

[topaz]

All this speculation.lol.

It will come down to levels, speed and edge quality. I know several on this thread want to place H/D in 3rd or lower because they do not like their programs. The judges have shown they differ and skating skills shine in both programs. Their confidence continues to grow and they're performance at Nationals had "swag". I don't think I've seen them look so confident before.

I like WeaPo and G/P programs alot but we'll have to see if they hit the levels, have the speed and edge quality of H/D.


Its going to be interesting and fun.

 

[VGThuy]

Honestly, H/D can't be easily beat unless someone (other than P/C) can match their skating skills, sheer power, and edges. Whatever one thinks of their programs, that much is true. They've worked really hard at Gadbois for the past 3+ seasons there to get to this level.

 

[Dobre]

Honestly, H/D can't be easily beat unless someone (other than P/C) can match their skating skills, sheer power, and edges. Whatever one thinks of their programs, that much is true. They've worked really hard at Gadbois for the past 3+ seasons there to get to this level.

Skating skills wise, I think Weaver & Poje are right there. Many of the judges at last year's worlds gave them the same marks as Hubbell & Donohue for that particular aspect of PCS. Power-wise, it can really depend on the day with these two teams. If a team tightens up, there could be a real difference. If they both skate clean or both skate tight, not so much. As far as cleanliness on the footwork/edges, H&D have had the advantage late in the season the last couple years. (And we're approaching that point in the season). As far as this season goes, we haven't really seen that from them yet in international competition, and we've seen even less from W&P. I'd think confidence-wise, just based on the number of competition run-throughs and recent head-to-head results, H&D would have the advantage. But W&P have done a lot of run-throughs in their show performances, which does give athletes a different kind of comfort-level in front of an audience.

Predictability-wise, I'd just go with last year's Worlds order: H&D, W&P, Chock & Bates, Gilles & Poirier. But I think it's likely not to play out that way because going 100% clean isn't that common in dance these days. And some of these teams' results have been really close. (W&P and C&B are still about 50/50 in @their last 12 or so competitions). I'm excited to watch. Think there is room for unpredictability, and room for performances to determine the outcome.

If I was going to predict a particular upset, though, it would probably be Fournier-Beaudry & Sorensen over Hawayek & Baker. But who knows if that's an educated prediction when F-B&S have only been competing at home? Just know that H&B have been leaving a lot of levels on the table in international events thus far; and while I expect them to bump that up a couple levels, there's likely some room there if another team can lay down their own. (Whether F-B&S can be that team, I don't know; but they weren't too far off H&B internationally over the last few seasons).

Note: Of course, I am currently functioning on a crazy Disney/fabulous-mint-Ghiradelli-chocolate-concoction high which may be coloring my judgment. But, yeah, I think this competition could be fun.

 

[skatingguy]

Honestly, H/D can't be easily beat unless someone (other than P/C) can match their skating skills, sheer power, and edges. Whatever one thinks of their programs, that much is true. They've worked really hard at Gadbois for the past 3+ seasons there to get to this level.

I think this season Hubbell/Donohue will stay in 2nd place, but it's next season that they might slip in the ice dance rankings. It seems to me that this season they are getting marks higher than what they received last season when arguably their material was better but their competitors are getting better buzz this season. I wonder if the buzz this season, which Hubbell/Donohue have had the past two years, will translate to higher marks, and placements for their competitors next season.

 

[Ka3sha]

Has anyone seen any confirmation that Hurtado/Khalyavin will get the spot at Worlds?

Spanish Fed confirmed that Hurtado/Khaliavin are going to Worlds
http://www.fedhielo.com/sara-hurtado-kirill-jalyavin-representaran-a-espana-en-el-mundial/

 

[lauravvv]

Predictability-wise, I'd just go with last year's Worlds order: H&D, W&P, Chock & Bates, Gilles & Poirier. But I think it's likely not to play out that way because going 100% clean isn't that common in dance these days. And some of these teams' results have been really close. (W&P and C&B are still about 50/50 in @their last 12 or so competitions). I'm excited to watch. Think there is room for unpredictability, and room for performances to determine the outcome.

Where would you put the two Russians - S/K and S/B? And G/F? Below all of those teams, including G/P? G/P tend to do better at Worlds than during the rest of the season, still, I personally don't think that they are guaranteed to finish higher than both Russians and even G/F.

Edit: Sorry, I finally got (thanks to RoseRed) that you were talking about 4CC, not Worlds.

 

[sharsk8s]

What do you guys think will happen to the russian junior teams that are aging out to senior next season. The top two are good in my opinion. Does anyone think they can shake up the top 3 russian teams and world standings next season?

 

[DORISPULASKI]

Unfortunately. the FD links on that channel are to SLO2

 

[Lara111]

What do you guys think will happen to the russian junior teams that are aging out to senior next season. The top two are good in my opinion. Does anyone think they can shake up the top 3 russian teams and world standings next season?

I do not think it is possible in the next year but there is a chance in the next 3-4 years especially for S/E.

 

[mollymgr]

I think this season is going to be the most unpredictable one, thanks to the Tango Romantica RD and the pileup of mistakes that can occur for this tough pattern. Team MFD does have the right approach of focusing on PCS more for the RD based on the new scoring this season. It is bound to be exciting.

 

[RoseRed]

Where would you put the two Russians - S/K and S/B? And G/F? Below all of those teams, including G/P? G/P tend to do better at Worlds than during the rest of the season, still, I personally don't think that they are guaranteed to finish higher than both Russians and even G/F.

This post was about 4CCs, I believe.

 

[lauravvv]

RoseRed - Yes, of course, you are right. Sometimes it's easy to get confused in those threads if one doesn't have time to read everything.

 

[yurokis40]

I just checked the scores at worlds last year the pcs for W&P and Hubbell and Donahue were virtually identical, that was after Weapo became Canada's number one team again, it was also with a 2011 program je suis malade, and Hubbell and Donahue had arguably the best free dance of their career last year. I'm not saying W&P will beat since they haven't competed on the grand prix this year but I think It will be very close, W&P I think have a clear edge in the rd the fact that H&D are using the same music as Weapo from 2014 which was arguably one of their best programs the comparison is not flattering to H&D. the fd I think however gets the levels and the higher Goe's will win.

 

[Dobre]

Hey, @Jeschke I hope you'll forgive me for answering your post about Russian Junior Nationals from the Team Trainwreck thread over here; but it's full of good junior dance discussion points. And I don't think my answers are at all Team Trainwreck worthy.

Are S/E still junior eligible next season?

Shevchenko & Eremenko only just made the age eligible cut this season. So as with every other junior Russian or U.S. team that has headed into seniors over the past several seasons, the question is really can they get onto the Senior GP? Shevchenko & Eremenko did themselves a solid at the JGPF by putting themselves ahead of Popova & Mozgov on the SB list, which means S&E are the 7th highest Russian team, and with Ushakova & Nekrasov young enough to stay in juniors, that likely means S&E will be the 6th highest senior Russian team on the SB list heading into next season. Currently, S&E are 22 on the overall SB list, which is in the danger zone as far as guaranteed berths are concerned but should leave them pretty high up if they get passed. (Chock & Bates and Fournier-Beaudry & Sorensen will be very likely to knock them down to at least 24th). Via World Standings, S&E are currently ranked 35th, which isn't as bad as it appears as they could make up a lot of ground with a strong finish at Junior Worlds, plus some teams above them will drop as those teams haven't competed at all this season. Anyway, S&E will get one more crack at an even higher SB score and a good crack at adding a decent tally to their world standing. My guess, based on what we've seen, is that they can get themselves onto the GP. With their current ranking, I wouldn't anticipate two spots; but it's not impossible with a top 6 berth among the Russian teams.

Khudaiberdieva/Nazarov - Uh yes. They are so good as well. They are my discovery of the season. Are they still junior eligible next year? He looked so devastated in the knc Did he seriously believe he could move up?

For these two, OTOH, I think making the GP would be very tough based on their current results. They could finish quite close to the other two Russian junior teams at Junior Worlds; but K&N don't have as many seasons on the JGP to bolster their World Standings, and K&N are currently behind both Popova & Mozgov and Shpilevaya & Smirnov on the SB list along with the six/seven higher ranked Russian teams. K&N would probably need to pass at least P&M and S&S with their score at Junior Worlds. Most likely Challengers for K&N next season, though you never know who will stick around or how Junior Worlds might go. Last year, K&N split results with the medalists at Junior Nationals so it was not impossible they could do so with S&E or U&N.

Shanaeva/Naryzhnyy - I love that google translate translates him with david extreme How come I missed them at jgp? Very very good.

They looked good & won silver in the first event of the season. Had a rough go in their second event and lost out on a shot at the JGPF there. S&N are a young team, though. It was a nice JGP debut for them.

Ushakova/Nekrasov - Disappointment of the season; they were light and fun last season, this year all looks staged and fake.

I wouldn't count them out. The scores from Russian Nationals aren't very indicative of how close U&N were to knocking S&E off the top spot at the JGPF after U&N won the free. One hundredth of a point. That is how close these two teams finished there.

Katashinskaya/Vaskovich - Discovery of the event. So good @alchemy void might approve the dedication of the russian juniors to ABBA music
(linked Mentor Torun FD as no uploads of nationals so far)

These two I haven't seen yet. Will look them up later if their programs are in the videos link in the K&C.

Edit: Sorry, I finally got (thanks to RoseRed) that you were talking about 4CC, not Worlds.

No problem. Just wanted to add that--as I mentioned a while ago--I personally don't think I could pick favorites for the world podium until after 4CCs. Even then it will be hard, but this event right here will tell us a lot about where W&P and C&B stand--which we really don't have much data on yet as neither has been up against anyone close internationally this season.

 

[MsZem]

Has anyone seen any confirmation that Hurtado/Khalyavin will get the spot at Worlds?

Yes

 

[sharsk8s]

I just found out that S/E also have the sit twizzles which it would be cool to see them use. They remind me of S/B so much, especially with the fact that the girl has weaker SS but a really nice presence on the ice.

 

[alain06fr]

Skating skills wise, I think Weaver & Poje are right there. Many of the judges at last year's worlds gave them the same marks as Hubbell & Donohue for that particular aspect of PCS. Power-wise, it can really depend on the day with these two teams. If a team tightens up, there could be a real difference. If they both skate clean or both skate tight, not so much. As far as cleanliness on the footwork/edges, H&D have had the advantage late in the season the last couple years. (And we're approaching that point in the season). As far as this season goes, we haven't really seen that from them yet in international competition, and we've seen even less from W&P. I'd think confidence-wise, just based on the number of competition run-throughs and recent head-to-head results, H&D would have the advantage. But W&P have done a lot of run-throughs in their show performances, which does give athletes a different kind of comfort-level in front of an audience.

Predictability-wise, I'd just go with last year's Worlds order: H&D, W&P, Chock & Bates, Gilles & Poirier. But I think it's likely not to play out that way because going 100% clean isn't that common in dance these days. And some of these teams' results have been really close. (W&P and C&B are still about 50/50 in @their last 12 or so competitions). I'm excited to watch. Think there is room for unpredictability, and room for performances to determine the outcome.

If I was going to predict a particular upset, though, it would probably be Fournier-Beaudry & Sorensen over Hawayek & Baker. But who knows if that's an educated prediction when F-B&S have only been competing at home? Just know that H&B have been leaving a lot of levels on the table in international events thus far; and while I expect them to bump that up a couple levels, there's likely some room there if another team can lay down their own. (Whether F-B&S can be that team, I don't know; but they weren't too far off H&B internationally over the last few seasons).

Note: Of course, I am currently functioning on a crazy Disney/fabulous-mint-Ghiradelli-chocolate-concoction high which may be coloring my judgment. But, yeah, I think this competition could be fun.

Well, as mentioned, it sounds like people forgot the russian fed targets a medal at Worlds... The battle for the podium will be quite tough!
As a reminder, there won’t be any US nor CAN judges in Saitama...

 

[RoseRed]

I just found out that S/E also have the sit twizzles which it would be cool to see them use. They remind me of S/B so much, especially with the fact that the girl has weaker SS but a really nice presence on the ice.

They have the same coaches as S/B, so it's not surprising.

 

[yurokis40]

Well, as mentioned, it sounds like people forgot the russian fed targets a medal at Worlds... The battle for the podium will be quite tough!
As a reminder, there won’t be any US nor CAN judges in Saitama...

True the Russian teams have improved I don't know that they are at the level of H&D or W&P yet, W&P have been a very consistent team at worlds not always rewarded, the best chance is S&K.

 

[caseyedwards]

Well, as mentioned, it sounds like people forgot the russian fed targets a medal at Worlds... The battle for the podium will be quite tough!
As a reminder, there won’t be any US nor CAN judges in Saitama...

Poor Russia! Still trying to win a medal in ice dance! None in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018

What do you guys think will happen to the russian junior teams that are aging out to senior next season. The top two are good in my opinion. Does anyone think they can shake up the top 3 russian teams and world standings next season?

They are Russian! So doubt any success in ice dance anymore

The desperate struggle of Russian teams to stay ahead of g/f says it all

 

[sharsk8s]

Where are the judges from at worlds? Is this another pro-russia/eastern euro panel? I am not for seeing that polish team beating teams far better than them again

 

[yurokis40]

Poor Russia! Still trying to win a medal in ice dance! None in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018

Ha ha they are getting desperate that's why they stacked the judging panel in their favor this year.

 

[caseyedwards]

Ha ha they are getting desperate that's why they stacked the judging panel in their favor this year.

Russia couldn’t win a medal with this judging panel! I’m not sure if it’s possible anymore. It had an American but there was no reason for b/s not to win with this panel!
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1617/wc2017/SEG008OF.HTM

 

[alain06fr]

Where are the judges from at worlds? Is this another pro-russia/eastern euro panel? I am not for seeing that polish team beating teams far better than them again

Scoring Judges at Worlds: Aus, Bul, Chn, Fra, Ger, Hun, Isr, Jpn, Pol, Kor, Rus, Tur, Ukr

 

[sharsk8s]

Russia couldn’t win a medal with this judging panel! I’m not sure if it’s possible anymore. It had an American but there was no reason for b/s not to win with this panel!
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1617/wc2017/SEG008OF.HTM

Dostani he was the controversial one at Euros. What about this years panel?

 

[sharsk8s]

Scoring Judges at Worlds: Aus, Bul, Chn, Fra, Ger, Hun, Isr, Jpn, Pol, Kor, Rus, Tur, Ukr

It seems russia might finally get that medal. Not the best panel for US/Can. Is China going to be pro-gadbois because I know that their ice dance program is based in Gadbois

 

[caseyedwards]

It seems russia might finally get that medal. Not the best panel for US/Can. Is China going to be pro-gadbois because I know that their ice dance program is based in Gadbois

One has to assume that. China is all in with Dubreuil and is working with her every day. Does China surpass Russia?

 

[sharsk8s]

One has to assume that. China is all in with Dubreuil and is working with her every day. Does China surpass Russia?

I am just trying to figure out which way the judges will generally sway. There will be a TON of gadbois teams at worlds so I wonder how they will hold out. I think russia has a very good chance at medaling this year especially with this panel.

 

[mollymgr]

I don't think the countries apply to referee, tech controller or tech specialist. Those could still be from US and Canada.