Russia in 2019-20 Grand Prix

[haribobo]

I am looking at top 15 as safe for 2 spots since anything below that is susceptible to falling down the list after Euros/4CC/Worlds occurs.

Men- Kolyada, Kovtun, Samarin, Voronov, Lazukin, and Aliev are all SB in top 15 and should get 2 spots. Shulepov (23) and Dmitriev (30) may get 1 each. Maybe a CoR spot for Milyukov who has no SB. Gumennik (SB 36) could stay junior or move up and maybe get a spot.

Erokhov (originally 2 spots this season) is in a no man's land right now.

Ladies- Zagitova Medvedeva Tuktamysheva Samodurova Kostornaia Trusova Scherbakova Sakhanovich all in top 15 - that is 8 skaters who should get 2 each. That leaves 2 total spots assuming nobody takes a break or is injured.

Then there is-
19 Tarusina
20 Gubanova
22 Konstantinova
25 Leonova

Don't know how all this will break down by the time next season rolls around.
Panenkova, Sotskova, Tsurskaya, and Radionova from this season's assignments, will not get anything next season. And Pogorilaya if she continues has no SB...

Pairs
Tarasova, Zabijako, Boikova, Mishina, Pavliuchenko, Kostiukovich, Panfilova all in top 15 and should get 2. That is 7 teams. Kolesov (SB 16) are young enough to stay junior another year if they want, or could move up and get a spot or 2, and Efimova (SB17) should get at least 1 spot also. Maybe Spiridonov could get a host spot.

Dance
Sinitsina, Stepanova, Zagorski, Skoptcova all in top 15. 2 each.
Popova (SB 22), Bazin (23, but maybe higher if they get Euros), and Smirnov (25) should at least get one each.
Shevchenko/Eremenko are SB 21 and he was born 8/97 so I think they have to move up now? Will get 1 or 2 spots.
Ushakova/Nekrasov (SB 19) were born in 6/02 and 9/00- could spend another year or 2 in juniors if they wanted or could move up.

 

[her grace]

Ladies- Zagitova Medvedeva Tuktamysheva Samodurova Kostornaia Trusova Scherbakova Sakhanovich all in top 15 - that is 8 skaters who should get 2 each. That leaves 2 total spots assuming nobody takes a break or is injured.

Then there is-
19 Tarusina
20 Gubanova
22 Konstantinova
25 Leonova

Don't know how all this will break down by the time next season rolls around.
Panenkova, Sotskova, Tsurskaya, and Radionova from this season's assignments, will not get anything next season. And Pogorilaya if she continues has no SB...

In addition to being in the top 24 SB, Konstantinova is also in the top 24 WS and her WS rank will only rise after she gets WS points from Euros. She's pretty safely guaranteed one GP. Heck, if she's sent to worlds, she might guarantee herself 2 by finishing in the top 12.

Sotskova should also stay in the top 24 WS so she's also guaranteed one if she wants it/fed submits her name. But watching her cry at Russian nationals--she's too much of a competitor to continue in this way. I think she'll either take a leave of absence from school or call it a career and focus on school. Probably the latter.

So currently guaranteed 1 spot based on WS/SB
Zagitova, Trusova, Tuktamysheva, Kostornaia, Shcherbakova, Medvedeva, Samodurova, Sakhanovich, Tarusina, Gubanova, Konstantinova, Sotskova. If everyone guaranteed one got one, then only 6 ladies would get 2 spots. So this may be the first year we see Russia not submitting athletes names who earned guaranteed spots.

 

[haribobo]

Tarusina and Gubanova could fall out of top 24 by the time 4cc Euros and Worlds completes....

 

[her grace]

Tarusina [SB19] and Gubanova [SB20] could fall out of top 24 by the time 4cc Euros and Worlds completes....

True. Six skaters have to pass Tarusina to knock her out. Five have to pass Gubanova. Konstantinova [SB22], Eunsoo Lim [SB23], Yelim Kim [SB24] are right below them on the SB list and could certainly pass them at Euros or 4CC. Then two-three more of skaters like the following would have to score above 198: Euros/Worlds: Lindfors, Paganini, Meite; 4CC/Jr. Worlds Yi Christy Leung; Jr. Worlds: Young You, Yokoi, Shiraiwa. So they're definitely not secure yet, but it's possible that they could hold on.

 

[rfisher]

It's ironic that Sakhanovich managed to get to the SB ranking to qualify for the GP, yet didn't even make it to Russian nationals. She may well be one the Fed opts not to submit her name if it comes to that.

 

[haribobo]

That would be incredibly ratchet. Just let a bunch of them start out with 1 spot and then let the chips fall...often times someone is injured and replacements get the nod.

 

[wickedwitch]

That would be incredibly ratchet. Just let a bunch of them start out with 1 spot and then let the chips fall...often times someone is injured and replacements get the nod.

But which of Zagitova, Medvedeva, Tuktamysheva, Samodurova, Kostornaia, Trusova, or Scherbakova do you give 1 spot to? Not to mention that Konstantinova may earn 2 spots on her own.

 

[haribobo]

zagitova

 

[Sylvia]

The way previous Grand Prix Announcements have been worded, only the top 12 finishers at Worlds (singles skaters) are guaranteed 2 GP spots. If a skater is in the top 24 SB and/or WS lists at the time of the GP selection meeting, he/she is guaranteed one GP (but usually end up with 2).

 

[DobrinFan]

But which of Zagitova, Medvedeva, Tuktamysheva, Samodurova, Kostornaia, Trusova, or Scherbakova do you give 1 spot to? Not to mention that Konstantinova may earn 2 spots on her own.

I say give Eteri kids 2 spots because at the end of the day, they consistently bring home medals. So 2 for Zagitova (via Worlds top 12 finish), Trusova, Shcherbakova and Kostornaia. That's 8 spots gone.

Then two of Tuktamysheva, Samodurova and Konstantinova get sent to Worlds and can earn 2 GP by finishing in the top 12. Let say they finish in the top 12. So 4 more spots gone. The lady who didn't make the World team gets 1 spot. So in total we have 13 spots gone.

Which means 1 spot for Medvedeva, Sakhanovich, Tarusina, Gubanova, and Sotskova. There, all 18 spots gone and everyone is happy or not

Honestly I say submit them all and let the chips fall where they may

 

[gkelly]

That would be incredibly ratchet.

wretched?

Just let a bunch of them start out with 1 spot and then let the chips fall...often times someone is injured and replacements get the nod.

But the replacements might not be Russian.

 

[haribobo]

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=ratchet

 

[Vagabond]

But the replacements might not be Russian.

Them's the breaks.

Besides, Ekaterina Ryabova might get an entry (or two, if one one the other Federations is feeling particularly }

 

[hanca]

Pairs
Tarasova, Zabijako, Boikova, Mishina, Pavliuchenko, Kostiukovich, Panfilova all in top 15 and should get 2. That is 7 teams. Kolesov (SB 16) are young enough to stay junior another year if they want, or could move up and get a spot or 2, and Efimova (SB17) should get at least 1 spot also. Maybe Spiridonov could get a host spot.

I don’t see why Panfilova/Rylov would move to the seniors next season if they don’t do triples yet. They still have full three seasons of junior eligibility, so it would be more sensible to remain in juniors, work on getting their triples and keep going to international competitions and getting decent results, rather than moving to seniors and not having JGPF and junior worlds.

 

[her grace]

Status of Russian ladies post-Euros

-Konstantinova moves to 10th in WS, but did not raise her SB (still 22). Probably not getting Worlds so won't be able to guarantee herself 2 GP spots next season. Her WS will guarantee her 1 GP.
-Tarusina and Gubanova held strong at SB19 and SB20. No one passed them at Euros. We'll see if Lim or Kim can at 4CC. The U.S. and JPN 4CC teams are already above Tarusina and Gubanova.

 

[rfisher]

I. Just. Need. Gubanova. To. Have. A. Senior. GP. One is better than none. Or, I need her to move and skate for any other country.

 

[mjb52]

I was wondering about Kostiukovich/Ialin too - she seems pretty young, why not do another season in juniors? How old is he?

 

[kalamalka]

I was wondering about Kostiukovich/Ialin too - she seems pretty young, why not do another season in juniors? How old is he?

He turned 20 in August, so one more year of eligibility. (she'll be 16 in March)

 

[Vash01]

I want Gubanova in at least one GP. She is too talented to miss the GP entirely.

 

[hanca]

I want Sakhanovich to get a GP. But the problem with too many Russian ladies having a GP is that there will be no one who will have two, with only 18 spots in total per country. Not sure if the federation would like that they can’t get to GPF.

 

[her grace]

Post-4CC update

Tarusina and Gubanova hold strong at #19 and #20. Of the possible challengers to knock them down: Yelim Kim is done for the season. Eunsoo Lim and Viveca Lindfors will have another shot at worlds. Shiraiwa, Yokoi, and You at junior worlds. If miracles happen, Paganini and France's entry at worlds also have a chance.

It's starting to really look like they're going to stay in the top 24. Please Russia submit them next season.

 

[rfisher]

Post-4CC update

Tarusina and Gubanova hold strong at #19 and #20. Of the possible challengers to knock them down: Yelim Kim is done for the season. Eunsoo Lim and Viveca Lindfors will have another shot at worlds. Shiraiwa, Yokoi, and You at junior worlds. If miracles happen, Paganini and France's entry at worlds also have a chance.

It's starting to really look like they're going to stay in the top 24. Please Russia submit them next season.

Don't get my hopes up about Gubanova. I can't take the disappointment again.

 

[skatingguy]

So there will be somewhere between 9 & 15 Russian Ladies on the Grand Prix next season, and then the question becomes which strategy is best to get as many of them to the Grand Prix Final as possible.
1. Put up the best 9 skaters to get 2 spots each and hope the best six will make the Grand Prix Final.
2. Pick the best six to get 2 spots, and throw in six more with one spot each to play spoiler.
Of course, this also depends on getting the other federations to cooperate when it comes to selecting skaters for events.

 

[Vagabond]

So there will be somewhere between 9 & 15 Russian Ladies on the Grand Prix next season, and then the question becomes which strategy is best to get as many of them to the Grand Prix Final as possible.
1. Put up the best 9 skaters to get 2 spots each and hope the best six will make the Grand Prix Final.
2. Pick the best six to get 2 spots, and throw in six more with one spot each to play spoiler.
Of course, this also depends on getting the other federations to cooperate when it comes to selecting skaters for events.

As if the Japanese Federation would ever cooperate on that!

 

[her grace]

Post-worlds update

Top 12 world finishers (guaranteed 2 GP spots)
-Zagitova, Medvedeva, and Samodurova: 6 total spots

Top 24 SB list (guaranteed 1 GP if submitted by federation)
-Trusova (SB5), Scherbakova (SB7), Tuktamysheva (SB9), Kostornaia (SB10), Sakhanovich (SB18), Tarusina (SB20), Gubanova (SB21), Konstantinova (SB23): 8 total spots

Top 24 WS (only listing names not already included above; guaranteed 1 GP if submitted by RUS fed)
-Sotskova (WS9 and projected to be WS19 once 16/17 data purged): 1 total

=15 spots "guaranteed"


If Russia submits everyone who earned a spot, then only 3 additional Russian skaters will join Zag, Med, and Samo with 2 spots. I don't see how Russia can submit all the names who earned one because four more Russian athletes {Trusova, Scherbakova, Tuktamysheva, and Kostornaia} definitely deserve two. So who gets cut? Sakhanovich because she didn't qualify to nationals? Sotskova because she's not in the top 24 SB list at all? Gubanova because she has no fed support? Of course, if the fed wants to give even more people two spots, then we may see multiple skaters with earned spots cut.

Not a chance of getting a GP (unless major federation intervention/unfairness):
Leonova, Tsurksaya, Panenkova, Tarakanova, Guliakova, Vasiliova

 

[Vagabond]

Grand Prix entries

Kazakhstan can offer two entries to Four Continents and two to Worlds this season to worthy defectors.

 

[Marco]

Post-worlds update

Top 12 world finishers (guaranteed 2 GP spots)
-Zagitova, Medvedeva, and Samodurova: 6 total spots

Top 24 SB list (guaranteed 1 GP if submitted by federation)
-Trusova (SB5), Scherbakova (SB7), Tuktamysheva (SB9), Kostornaia (SB10), Sakhanovich (SB18), Tarusina (SB20), Gubanova (SB21), Konstantinova (SB23): 8 total spots

Top 24 WS (only listing names not already included above; guaranteed 1 GP if submitted by RUS fed)
-Sotskova (WS9 and projected to be WS19 once 16/17 data purged): 1 total

=15 spots "guaranteed"


If Russia submits everyone who earned a spot, then only 3 additional Russian skaters will join Zag, Med, and Samo with 2 spots. I don't see how Russia can submit all the names who earned one because four more Russian athletes {Trusova, Scherbakova, Tuktamysheva, and Kostornaia} definitely deserve two. So who gets cut? Sakhanovich because she didn't qualify to nationals? Sotskova because she's not in the top 24 SB list at all? Gubanova because she has no fed support? Of course, if the fed wants to give even more people two spots, then we may see multiple skaters with earned spots cut.

Not a chance of getting a GP (unless major federation intervention/unfairness):
Leonova, Tsurksaya, Panenkova, Tarakanova, Guliakova, Vasiliova

Working backwards, my guess is Rus Fed will want to ensure Trusova, Scherbakova, Tuktamysheva, Kostornaia, Konstantinova end up with 2 events each. That's 16 spots for them and for the 2019 World team.

Domestic events in summer and the fall will likely determine how the final 2 spots get allocated. Given that there are already a couple of seasoned veterans on the list, I hope these final 2 spots (or more, if my guess above was off) would go to newbies. No offence, but skaters like Sotskova, Leonova and Tsurskaya had their chances.

I wish everyone can stay healthy so that there aren't more spots because of injuries or sickness. What happened to Kostornaia before Jr Worlds was quite unfortunate.