2023-24 Pairs General Discussion - Join the SBS Double Salchow Club!

Karen-W

How long do we have to wait for GP assignments?
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EDIT
Teams on both top 24 season's best and top 24 world standings (can be assumed to get 2 spots if staying together):
  1. Stellato/Deschamps
  2. Hase/Volodin
  3. Conti/Macii
  4. Metelkina/Berulava
  5. Beccari/Guarise
  6. Ghilardi/Ambrosini
  7. Perreira/Michaud
  8. Pavlova/Sviatchenko
  9. Hocke/Kunkel
  10. Miura/Kihara
  11. Kam/O'Shea
  12. Golubeva/Gioutopoulus Moore
  13. Danilova/Tsiba
  14. Laurin/Ethier
  15. Kovalev/Kovalev
  16. Plazas/Fernandez
Just top 24 season's best (higher placed teams will probably be guaranteed 2 spots)
  1. Peng/Wang (12th)
  2. Liu/Nagy (14th)
  3. Vaananen/Clerici (18th)
  4. Holichenko/Darenskyi (24th)
Just top 24 world standings
  1. Chan/Howe (9th)
  2. Vaipan-Law/Digby (19th)
  3. Valesi/Piazza (20th)
  4. Caldara/Maglio (24th)
I would count 19 teams who are pretty much guaranteed 2 spots (the 16 teams on both lists along with Peng/Wang, Liu/Nagy, and Chan/Howe). With the other teams who will get 1 spot, that would be 43 assignments total, with 5 spots left over.
We need to see how Worlds plays out - that is also going to affect the WS and SB lists. The Top 10 there are guaranteed 2 spots. And some of those teams (VLDigs, ValPiaz, CalMag and HolDar) probably won't get one at all because the host feds will hold onto TBD spots for teams not guaranteed spots.

I'd bet on at least 8 host TBD spots - 2 SkAm (EfiMit & McBPark), 1 SCI (new team of Bombarider/Mimar or Derenisky/Eberl or one of their jr teams moving up), 2 GPdF (Piegad/Strekalin & 1 other team), 2 CoC (plenty of Chinese teams), 1 NHK (Nagaoka/Moriguchi).

Williams/Lewer are highly unlikely to get a GP assignment. I don't even think Martins/Bedard will get one and they have a higher SB.
 

Samurina

Active Member
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We need to see how Worlds plays out - that is also going to affect the WS and SB lists. The Top 10 there are guaranteed 2 spots. And some of those teams (VLDigs, ValPiaz, CalMag and HolDar) probably won't get one at all because the host feds will hold onto TBD spots for teams not guaranteed spots.

I'd bet on at least 8 host TBD spots - 2 SkAm (EfiMit & McBPark), 1 SCI (new team of Bombarider/Mimar or Derenisky/Eberl or one of their jr teams moving up), 2 GPdF (Piegad/Strekalin & 1 other team), 2 CoC (plenty of Chinese teams), 1 NHK (Nagaoka/Moriguchi).

Williams/Lewer are highly unlikely to get a GP assignment. I don't even think Martins/Bedard will get one and they have a higher SB.
wait if those teams stay on SB list, then they have to be on the GP. Martins/Bedard prolly won't get GP spot (outside of top 30). Depending on ISU decision Williams/Lewer might get another crack at the JGP, but if not, they prolly won't as well. also not all teams on both list are guaranteed two spots. maybe p/f only one or danilova/tsiba (who i actually hope get two bc they are so underrated imo)
 

Karen-W

How long do we have to wait for GP assignments?
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wait if those teams stay on SB list, then they have to be on the GP. Martins/Bedard prolly won't get GP spot (outside of top 30). Depending on ISU decision Williams/Lewer might get another crack at the JGP, but if not, they prolly won't as well.
We need to wait to see how the SB and WS top 24 look once Worlds is done. Last season, just for reference, there were 3 teams on both the SB & WS Top 24 who only received 1 GP assignment on the initial list. And there were 2 other teams who were only on the WS Top 24 who got 1 GP when the initial list came out. And of the teams outside the SB Top 24 - 2 more were host picks (29 & 40), and the other 2 (28 & 35) wound up as replacement picks. The 2 remaining eligible teams on the SB Top 75 who had a qualifying tootal score (38 & 45) were not assigned at all.

And that was with 2 teams who were guaranteed assignments retiring/splitting. The teams that DID pick up assignments as the season progressed were lucky that 3 teams initially given 2 were injured/split and that one of those SB/WS Top 24 teams with 1 assignment split, otherwise Liu/Nagy and Hase/Volodin would have only had 1 assignment each.

The field is even deeper next season and there are going to be quite a few promising/young teams who don't get even one GP.
 

ice coverage

Well-Known Member
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New to me: I think almost all of the pair men at 2024 Junior Worlds posed for a big group photo at the banquet. :)
Sorry that I do not recognize every face, but the idea must have been for as many of the pair guys as possible to gather together?
I had not come across this photo elsewhere.
It's the fourth photo posted today by Nikita Kovalenko.


ETA:

Corrections welcome, but my best attempt to match up faces and names:

Front row -- Edoardo Comi ITA, Luka Berulava GEO
Middle row -- Robert Loewenherz GER, Lucas Coulon FRA, Lukas Vochozka CZE, Andy Deng USA, Nikita Kovalenko ISR, Luke Wang USA, Lucas Tsuyoshi Honda JPN
Back row -- Lachlan Lewer USA, Ivan Khobta UKR, Tobija Harms GER, Mozes Jozsef Berei HUN, Noah Quesada ESP, Matthis Pellegris FRA, Oliver Kubacak SVK

I do not see Yohnatan Elizarov CAN, Charly Laliberte Laurent CAN, Kyle McLeod GBR?​
 
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Sylvia

TBD
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Riku Miura/Ryuichi Kihara debuted a new SP at 4CC ("Dare You to Move" from The String Quartet tribute to Switchfoot by Jon Foreman) and have gone back to ther 2020-22 FS music ("Woman" by Shawn Phillips) for Montreal Worlds, according to their updated ISU bio: http://www.isuresults.com/bios/isufs00108196.htm
There are 2 other songs by Phillips listed (new or not?) -- "She Was Waiting for Her Mother At the Station In Torino" & "You Know I Love You Baby."
 

Sylvia

TBD
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Deanna & Maxime had their pre-Worlds media call yesterday (March 13) - thread of 11 posts by @clairecloutier: https://twitter.com/ClaireCloutier/status/1767998989750751274

Lots of interesting info so I've copied everything out below:

In a video conference today, Deanna Stellato-Dudek and Maxime Deschamps said their first experience skating at Bell Centre last week went well. "We would be thrilled to do that [same] program next Wednesday," said Stellato-Dudek. /thread

The duo want to improve their jumps at Worlds. Stellato: "I'm so sick of missing things I land every day, like 100 times in practice. I just need to chill out and not over-try. That's what I'm going to try to do this time. I find I do best when I'm not over-trying."

SD/D have recently added neurofeedback training to their regimen. Neurofeedback is intended to help athletes train for greater consistency and focus. They started neurofeedback with a practitioner in-office and also do sessions at home using a TV (i.e., screen).

Deschamps: "As you're watching the [neurofeedback session on] TV, if you're not concentrating the right way or [have] the right electricity in your brain, the TV is closing. You're conditioning your brain to concentrate."

Stellato-Dudek first heard about the neurofeedback approach while watching a sports documentary and thought it would be worth trying. "It's really helping me with my ADHD," said Deschamps.

The couple mentioned that there are a number of possible rules changes being proposed now for pairs and the other disciplines. From what they've heard, it's possible some changes could even take effect next season. So they're trying to prepare.

Among the possible changes they've heard are 1) short program: alternating between pairs spin/SBS spin, 2) free skate: addition of stationary spin lift, replacing 1 leveled lift w/choreo lift, eliminating choreo seq, removal of 3-jump SBS combos

SD: "I think every change in figure skating should be with the thought of how can we make our sport more popular? How can we make more people want to watch our sport? And particularly to watch the pairs discipline, if I'm just talking about ourselves."

SD: "I think doing [rules changes] this close to the Olympics could be risky. Or it could pay off. But it would be a gamble either way ... These are really big changes and it could yield really big profit, or do the opposite."

Potential rules changes would be voted on at the ISU Congress in June. In the past, changes of this magnitude were usually implemented in the next Olympic cycle, not the current one. But who knows? 🤔

Stellato-Dudek noted that most skaters will already have next season's programs by June. "I'm thinking of a lot of ideas, because if this happens, I want to be on the ball and have a list of ideas ready to go and not be panicking," she said.


ETA link to Beverley Smith's S-D/D article today:
 
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Karen-W

How long do we have to wait for GP assignments?
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So, who wants to make some predictions about Worlds?

Gold - Stellato-Dudek/Deschamps
Silver - Conti/Macii
Bronze - Hase/Volodin
4th - Miura/Kihara
5th - Beccari/Guarise
6th - Metelkina/Berulava
7th - Chan/Howe
8th - Hocke/Kunkel
9th - Pereira/Michaud
10th - Pavlova/Sviatchenko
11th - Peng/Wang
12th - Kam/O'Shea
13th - Golubeva/Giotopoulos Moore

14th-16th -
Laurin/Ethier
Vaananen/Clerici
Danilova/Tsiba

And rounding out the top 20 -
Vaipan-Law/Digby
Chtchetinina/Wozniak
Holichenko/Darenskiy
Plazas/Fernandez

Missing the FS cut will be -
Schaller/Mayr
Simioli/Zarbo
Gamez/Korovin
Crafoord/Crafoord

I'm really torn about where I've placed ConMac, MiuKih and ChanHowe.

Theoretically, if ConMac can put together two solid skates then they're easily top 3 - their GPF FS is #2 on the SB and their GPF SP is #4 on the SB. Skate as well as they did there and they could beat SDDes for the title should SDDes crack under hometown pressure. I don't think that will happen and ConMac haven't really had the kind of season that makes me think they'll be able to step up to the top of the podium next week, but they are seasoned competitors and that will hold them in good stead against the newer teams coming up from behind.

HaseVol are my dark-horse surprise bronze pick. I'm rather lukewarm about their programs but Minerva is a fierce competitor and they have already proven at the GPF that they're podium contenders.

MiuKih did NOT look good at 4CCs but my expectation is they'll get WC level PCS and that will hold them up even if they're outskated by BecGuar and/or MetBeru. I think nerves and heightened expectations will play a factor for both BecGuar and MetBeru so I really think their ceiling here is 5th/6th in some order.

ChanHowe are one of the more experienced teams in the field and while we've only seen them in the SP at US Nats, they're still, IMO, the #1 US team and better than the 6 teams I have behind them. HocKun - their programs aren't great this season and she's no more reliable than Emily on the jumping elements, so ChanHowe get the edge with PCS. PerMich have had some struggles in their sophomore season and I have a feeling they're not going to be able to put it together next week any better than they did at the GPF or 4CCs. PavSvia - mid-tier Russians without the 'Skating While Russian' PCS bump. We're going to get another series of quotes from them complaining about their low scores like they did at Euros and we'll all roll our eyes (if we can keep them open after their deadly dull programs, lol). PengWang and KamOShea - flip a coin because they have similar jump issues and they're battling it out for 11th & 12th. They could both easily be beaten by GoluGM if the Aussies can sort out their FS issues and skate up to their potential. Heck, GoluGM could repeat their top 10 finish from last year if they go clean since they're a far more exciting and talented team than the Hungarians.

Then there is a sizable gap and I expect LaurEth, VaanCler and DanTsi to round out the top 16. PlaFern might beat one of those three teams but... Well, this is PlaFern we're talking about and we'll all drop dead from the shock if they can skate clean in the SP. There is a smaller gap with VLDigs, HolDar and ChtWoz - and any of those three could also make it to the top 16 but they're really going to merely be happy to have made the FS.

No doubt exists in my mind about which 4 teams will fail to make the cut - their SP SBs are all well behind the others.
 
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skateboy

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8,111
So, who wants to make some predictions about Worlds?
I'll bite! (At least for the podium.)

Gold - Stellato-Dudek/Deschamps
Silver - Miura/Kihara (I think they will fight hard, as the defending champs.)
Bronze - Conti/Macii
 

Amy L

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9,659
I've seen so many predictions with SD-D in first that I'm nervous that it won't happen. Conti/Macii have been rather meh this season, I think the defending World medalist title is getting to them, we'll see if they'll skate up to it when it really matters. Hase/Volodin have the potential to medal, but if the Euroes pressure made them tank their LP, what is Worlds going to do to them? MetBer are generally disliked so they'll probably medal :lol: I have no idea how MiuKih are doing with their injuries but I think they'll skate up to the occasion. So I don't know how to predict the placements but I'll take the coward's way and just say that the above teams with be in the top 5 in some order.
 

Karen-W

How long do we have to wait for GP assignments?
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I've seen so many predictions with SD-D in first that I'm nervous that it won't happen. Conti/Macii have been rather meh this season, I think the defending World medalist title is getting to them, we'll see if they'll skate up to it when it really matters. Hase/Volodin have the potential to medal, but if the Euroes pressure made them tank their LP, what is Worlds going to do to them? MetBer are generally disliked so they'll probably medal :lol: I have no idea how MiuKih are doing with their injuries but I think they'll skate up to the occasion. So I don't know how to predict the placements but I'll take the coward's way and just say that the above teams with be in the top 5 in some order.
I'm nervous about putting them in 1st (I also hate their FS and don't want to see it win Worlds, lol) but I think the rest of the field is just too volatile to beat them.
 

AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)

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So, who wants to make some predictions about Worlds?

Gold - Stellato-Dudek/Deschamps
Silver - Conti/Macii
Bronze - Hase/Volodin
4th - Miura/Kihara
5th - Beccari/Guarise
6th - Metelkina/Berulava
7th - Chan/Howe
8th - Hocke/Kunkel
9th - Pereira/Michaud
10th - Pavlova/Sviatchenko
11th - Peng/Wang
12th - Kam/O'Shea
13th - Golubeva/Giotopoulos Moore

14th-16th -
Laurin/Ethier
Vaananen/Clerici
Danilova/Tsiba

And rounding out the top 20 -
Vaipan-Law/Digby
Chtchetinina/Wozniak
Holichenko/Darenskiy
Plazas/Fernandez

Missing the FS cut will be -
Schaller/Mayr
Simioli/Zarbo
Gamez/Korovin
Crafoord/Crafoord

I'm really torn about where I've placed ConMac, MiuKih and ChanHowe.

Theoretically, if ConMac can put together two solid skates then they're easily top 3 - their GPF FS is #2 on the SB and their GPF SP is #4 on the SB. Skate as well as they did there and they could beat SDDes for the title should SDDes crack under hometown pressure. I don't think that will happen and ConMac haven't really had the kind of season that makes me think they'll be able to step up to the top of the podium next week, but they are seasoned competitors and that will hold them in good stead against the newer teams coming up from behind.

HaseVol are my dark-horse surprise bronze pick. I'm rather lukewarm about their programs but Minerva is a fierce competitor and they have already proven at the GPF that they're podium contenders.

MiuKih did NOT look good at 4CCs but my expectation is they'll get WC level PCS and that will hold them up even if they're outskated by BecGuar and/or MetBeru. I think nerves and heightened expectations will play a factor for both BecGuar and MetBeru so I really think their ceiling here is 5th/6th in some order.

ChanHowe are one of the more experienced teams in the field and while we've only seen them in the SP at US Nats, they're still, IMO, the #1 US team and better than the 6 teams I have behind them. HocKun - their programs aren't great this season and she's no more reliable than Emily on the jumping elements, so ChanHowe get the edge with PCS. PerMich have had some struggles in their sophomore season and I have a feeling they're not going to be able to put it together next week any better than they did at the GPF or 4CCs. PavSvia - mid-tier Russians without the 'Skating While Russian' PCS bump. We're going to get another series of quotes from them complaining about their low scores like they did at Euros and we'll all roll our eyes (if we can keep them open after their deadly dull programs, lol). PengWang and KamOShea - flip a coin because they have similar jump issues and they're battling it out for 11th & 12th. They could both easily be beaten by GoluGM if the Aussies can sort out their FS issues and skate up to their potential. Heck, GoluGM could repeat their top 10 finish from last year if they go clean since they're a far more exciting and talented team than the Hungarians.

Then there is a sizable gap and I expect LaurEth, VaanCler and DanTsi to round out the top 16. PlaFern might beat one of those three teams but... Well, this is PlaFern we're talking about and we'll all drop dead from the shock if they can skate clean in the SP. There is a smaller gap with VLDigs, HolDar and ChtWoz - and any of those three could also make it to the top 16 but they're really going to merely be happy to have made the FS.

No doubt exists in my mind about which 4 teams will fail to make the cut - their SP SBs are all well behind the others.

Oh my gosh me and @SidelineSkater are touching up our top 12 list every single night at the moment. It’s our ladies that keep changing the most, I’m so excited.

I’m so glad he and I are realistic about pairs and on the same page with that mostly. We’re both putting in some minor surprises for dance.
 
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AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)

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Gold - Stellato-Dudek/Deschamps
Silver - Hase/Volodin
Bronze - Beccari/Guarise
4th - Conti/Macci
5th - Miura/Kihara
6th - Metelkina/Berulava
7th - Pavlova/Sviatchenko
8th - Golubeva/Giotopoulos Moore
9th - Pereira/Michaud
10th- Peng/Wang
11th - Hocke/Kunkel
12th - Kam/O'Shea
13th - Danilova/Tsiba
14th - Chan/Howe
15th- Vaipan-Law/Digby
16th- Laurin/Ethier

Those are my top 16. I thought only the top 16 advance to the free.

Part of me wants to put Hase/ Volodin in for gold

Dark horse- Martins/Bedard tee-hee
 
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Sylvia

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Jonas

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My gut is telling me that cleanliness among the big ticket items will win the title this year. I'm calling for Metelkina & Berulava and Hase & Volodin to go gold, silver in either order.

As much as I'd love to see Stellato-Dudek & Deschamps win the whole thing at home in Quebec, I'm really nervous for them. I think the the splattering of mistakes they've had seasonwide will really catch up to and cost them at worlds. I'm calling bronze.

I don't have any confidence of seeing any US teams in the top 10 this year. Keeping 2 pairs' spots for Boston should be considered a win.

Your thoughts...
 

AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)

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My gut is telling me that cleanliness among the big ticket items will win the title this year. I'm calling for Metelkina & Berulava and Hase & Volodin to go gold, silver in either order.

As much as I'd love to see Stellato-Dudek & Deschamps win the whole thing at home in Quebec, I'm really nervous for them. I think the the splattering of mistakes they've had seasonwide will really catch up to and cost them at worlds. I'm calling bronze.

I don't have any confidence of seeing any US teams in the top 10 this year. Keeping 2 pairs' spots for Boston should be considered a win.

Your thoughts...

I don’t see M and B be on the podium

I do think H and V could strike back and get gold
 

SidelineSkater

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edited to change V/C with higher scores to lower scores overall...

I'll bite. I think some teams are trending down - Metelkina/Berulava couldn't clinch the Euros title and had a pretty shaky FS at Junior Worlds - definitely not clean skates. I just don't know where to slot Chan/Howe. Had we seen their FS at Nats, it would be easier to know. Their lifts are usually solid and big points for them, and that's the big question mark. There's truly a lot of grouping with the top 6-7, then the next tier of 8-14, and then 15-20. Despite Vaananen/Clerici winning Golden Spin over Plazas/Fernandez, V/C have lower scores overall throughout the season. I also think G/GM and H/K have higher placement potential over the American teams and P/M, so who knows??? It's fun to guess.

Gold SD/Deschamps
Silver Hase/Volodin
Bronze Conti/Macci
4th Becarri/Guarise
5th Miura/Kihara
6th Metelkina/Berulava
7th Pavlova/Sviatchenko
8th Kam/O’Shea
9th Pereira/Michaud
10th Chan/Howe
11th Golubeva/Giotopolous Moore
12th Hocke/Kunkel
13th Peng/Wang
14th Danilova/Tsiba
15th Laurin/Ethier
16th Plazas/Fernandez
17th Vaananen/Clerici
18th Vaipan-Law/Digby
19th Chtchetinina/Wozniak
20th Holichenkco/Darnski
 
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AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)

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I'll bite. I think some teams are trending down - Metelkina/Berulava couldn't clinch the Euros title and had a pretty shaky FS at Junior Worlds - definitely not clean skates. I just don't know where to slot Chan/Howe. Had we seen their FS at Nats, it would be easier to know. Their lifts are usually solid and big points for them, and that's the big question mark. There's truly a lot of grouping with the top 6-7, then the next tier of 8-14, and then 15-20. Despite Vaananen/Clerici winning Golden Spin over Plazas/Fernandez, V/C have higher scores overall throughout the season. I also think G/GM and H/K have higher placement potential over the American teams and P/M, so who knows??? It's fun to guess.

Gold SD/Deschamps
Silver Hase/Volodin
Bronze Conti/Macci
4th Becarri/Guarise
5th Miura/Kihara
6th Metelkina/Berulava
7th Pavlova/Sviatchenko
8th Kam/O’Shea
9th Pereira/Michaud
10th Chan/Howe
11th Golubeva/Giotopolous Moore
12th Hocke/Kunkel
13th Peng/Wang
14th Danilova/Tsiba
15th Laurin/Ethier
16th Plazas/Fernandez
17th Vaananen/Clerici
18th Vaipan-Law/Digby
19th Chtchetinina/Wozniak
20th Holichenkco/Darnski
Twinsies. Tee-hee

Although, my American placements are much lower
 

AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)

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Team 🇦🇺 better get the scores They deserve if they have the skates they’ve been doing recently. They are fast, have the best jumps of the field if you ask me, and they don’t seem Junior to me anymore. So enough with these judges lowballing countries that don’t have strong federations behind them.
 

Karen-W

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During the Anything GOES Worlds preview yesterday Anna (their US-based team member) reported that last September during Champs Camp the only thing Emily & Spencer weren't really able to do because of his shoulder were the lifts - which was fairly obvious during the SP at Nats. Assuming his shoulder has healed enough in the last 2 months that they have their lifts back in order, I think they'll place no worse than 8th - possibly higher. We just don't know and won't know until we start getting some practice reports from folks in Montreal today.
 

almiranara

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During the Anything GOES Worlds preview yesterday Anna (their US-based team member) reported that last September during Champs Camp the only thing Emily & Spencer weren't really able to do because of his shoulder were the lifts - which was fairly obvious during the SP at Nats. Assuming his shoulder has healed enough in the last 2 months that they have their lifts back in order, I think they'll place no worse than 8th - possibly higher. We just don't know and won't know until we start getting some practice reports from folks in Montreal today.
Someone who attended the main rink practice reported it seems like he's still having some issues with his shoulder https://twitter.com/abbylckharts/status/1769746183931502903?t=QsuCSXpqxPCe37dDT76U0Q&s=19
 

Karen-W

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marBed. Just saying.
LOL - I mean, which other US team are you saying should have been replaced? MarBed are the #2 alternate - and they were at Challenge Cup when the skate-off between Chan/Howe and Liu/Nagy (the #1 alternate) was held in Vegas during Synchro Nats. Just sayin'...
 

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