Grand Prix 2021-22 Season Potential Assignments

haribobo

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Assuming we go back to original format...

For men and ladies, roughly 36 spots assuming 2 assignments each

MEN
14 spots - Chen, Hanyu, Uno, Brown, Rizzo, Messing, Cha, Moris K., Kagiyama, Aymoz, Grassl, Kolyada, Vasiljevs are all top 20 in World Standings and SB score. Add Semenenko due to 8th place at Worlds.

11 spots - top 24 World standings- Samarin, Aliev, Jin, Nguyen, Danielian, Pulkinen, Tanaka, Brezina, Gumennik, Hiwatashi, Fa

6 spots- top 20 SB score (leaving space to perhaps add 4 more later due to WTT)- Yan Han, Frangipani, Britschgi, Selevko, Milyukov, Majorov

So that is 31 spots. Leaving 5 more to use among US, CAN, RUS, and JPN skaters. Top contendors IMO...

USA- Paniot, Naumov, Zhou, Ma
CAN- Sadovsky, Circelli, Phan, Orzel, Nadeau
RUS- Ignatov, Kondratyuk, Mozalev
JPN- Tomono, Shun Sato

LADIES
15 spots - Kihira, Shcherbakova, Tuktamysheva, Trusova, Tennell, Sakamoto, Miyahara, Ryabova, Yelim, Karen Chen, Kiibus, Haein, Schott. Add Loena and Mikutina for being top 12 @ Worlds.

9 spots - top 24 World Standings- Kostornaia, Eunsoo, Samodurova, Young, Medvedeva, Bell, Paganini, Higuchi, Starr

5 spots - top 20 SB score- Schizas, Taljegard, Zundert, Feigin, Urushadze

That is 29 spots. Top contendors for remaining 7ish spots...although I imagine some of these taking priority over the 5 SB score skaters from above..

USA- Amber Glenn, Alysa Liu, Audrey Shin
CAN- Schumacher, Bausback, Daleman, Ruiter
RUS- Valieva, Usacheva, Khromykh, Nugumanova
JPN- Matsuike, Mihara, Kawabe
CHN- Hongyi Chen
 
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haribobo

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Pairs is always basically whoever is left competing and uninjured...

DANCE- 30 teams for 60 spots

18 teams- top 24 SB and WS- Sinitsina, Hubbell, Gilles, Guignard, Chock, Stepanova, Fear, Wang, Hurtado, Kaliszek, Hawayek, Zagorski, FBS, Lajoie, Reed, Galyavieva, Muller, Nazarova

6 teams- Top 24 WS- Papadakis, Smart, Kazakova, Soucisse, Lauriault, Carreira

2 teams- Top 20 SB- Lopareva, Komatsubara

So that is 26 teams so far.

Leftovers:
USA- Green, Cesanek, McNamara
RUS- Skoptcova, Shevchenko, Khudaiberdieva, Morozov
CAN- Sales, Fabbri
 

Karen-W

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Pairs is always basically whoever is left competing and uninjured...

DANCE- 30 teams for 60 spots

18 teams- top 24 SB and WS- Sinitsina, Hubbell, Gilles, Guignard, Chock, Stepanova, Fear, Wang, Hurtado, Kaliszek, Hawayek, Zagorski, FBS, Lajoie, Reed, Galyavieva, Muller, Nazarova

6 teams- Top 24 WS- Papadakis, Smart, Kazakova, Soucisse, Lauriault, Carreira

2 teams- Top 20 SB- Lopareva, Komatsubara

So that is 26 teams so far.

Leftovers:
USA- Green, Cesanek, McNamara
RUS- Skoptcova, Shevchenko, Khudaiberdieva, Morozov
CAN- Sales, Fabbri
You're forgetting the following teams among the leftovers:
FRA - Demougeot/Le Mercier - I think they're too old for another season in juniors and they're 27 in WS, right behind Shevchenko
CHN - Chen/Sun - they're 29 in WS, sandwiched between Komatsubara & Skoptcova; and Ning/Wang are #43 in WS

I would expect D/LeM and C/S to get assignments ahead of Green 36, Cesanek 74, Morozov 62, Sales 60, Fabbri 57 and most definitely ahead of McNamara and Khudaiberdieva who have formed new partnerships this season.

My gut says - the 8 open assignments left go to:

Shevchenko, Demougeot, Chen, Skoptcova, Green, Ning, Fabbri, & Sales with Morozov, Cesanek, McNamara & Khudaiberdieva on the waiting list along with Turkkila 34, Tascherlova 42, and Min/Eaton 44.
 

Karen-W

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6,138
Assuming we go back to original format...

For men and ladies, roughly 36 spots assuming 2 assignments each

MEN
14 spots - Chen, Hanyu, Uno, Brown, Rizzo, Messing, Cha, Moris K., Kagiyama, Aymoz, Grassl, Kolyada, Vasiljevs are all top 20 in World Standings and SB score. Add Semenenko due to 8th place at Worlds.

11 spots - top 24 World standings- Samarin, Aliev, Jin, Nguyen, Danielian, Pulkinen, Tanaka, Brezina, Gumennik, Hiwatashi, Fa

6 spots- top 20 SB score (leaving space to perhaps add 4 more later due to WTT)- Yan Han, Frangipani, Britschgi, Selevko, Milyukov, Majorov

So that is 31 spots. Leaving 5 more to use among US, CAN, RUS, and JPN skaters. Top contendors IMO...

USA- Paniot, Naumov, Zhou, Ma
CAN- Sadovsky, Circelli, Phan, Orzel, Nadeau
RUS- Ignatov, Kondratyuk, Mozalev
JPN- Tomono, Shun Sato

LADIES
15 spots - Kihira, Shcherbakova, Tuktamysheva, Trusova, Tennell, Sakamoto, Miyahara, Ryabova, Yelim, Karen Chen, Kiibus, Haein, Schott. Add Loena and Mikutina for being top 12 @ Worlds.

9 spots - top 24 World Standings- Kostornaia, Eunsoo, Samodurova, Young, Medvedeva, Bell, Paganini, Higuchi, Starr

5 spots - top 20 SB score- Schizas, Taljegard, Zundert, Feigin, Urushadze

That is 29 spots. Top contendors for remaining 7ish spots...although I imagine some of these taking priority over the 5 SB score skaters from above..

USA- Amber Glenn, Alysa Liu, Audrey Shin
CAN- Schumacher, Bausback, Daleman, Ruiter
RUS- Valieva, Usacheva, Khromykh, Nugumanova
JPN- Matsuike, Mihara, Kawabe
CHN- Hongyi Chen
Men
Hmmmm - I wonder how badly injured Zhou is. Sadovsky is rumored to be heading to WTT so he'll surely jump onto the top 20 SB list. The USFS could do the same with Zhou if he is able to recover in time.

Also - you left off Torgashev, presuming he is still skating and uninjured; and Krasnozhon who is still around and ranked ahead of Ma & Naumov.

Best guess - Zhou, Sadovsky, Kondratyuk, and Sato all get 2 assignments; coin toss for the last 2 spots - maybe 1 home assignment each for a 3rd Chinese man and a 3rd French man.

Ladies
Tursy is 23 in the WS - I know all signs point to her not coming back but...

It's VAN Zundert

FRA - Meite will surely get two assignments to begin with on the assumption she will be healthy by the GP; and both Serna & Mazzara are in the top 75 so they'll likely snag at least a host pick for IdF.

Best guess - Liu, Ruiter, Valieva, Matsuike, Chen, Meite all get 2 to begin with, and the last two assignments will go to Serna & Mazzara.
 

Frau Muller

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Assuming we go back to original format...

For men and ladies, roughly 36 spots assuming 2 assignments each

MEN
14 spots - Chen, Hanyu, Uno, Brown, Rizzo, Messing, Cha, Moris K., Kagiyama, Aymoz, Grassl, Kolyada, Vasiljevs are all top 20 in World Standings and SB score. Add Semenenko due to 8th place at Worlds.

11 spots - top 24 World standings- Samarin, Aliev, Jin, Nguyen, Danielian, Pulkinen, Tanaka, Brezina, Gumennik, Hiwatashi, Fa

6 spots- top 20 SB score (leaving space to perhaps add 4 more later due to WTT)- Yan Han, Frangipani, Britschgi, Selevko, Milyukov, Majorov

So that is 31 spots. Leaving 5 more to use among US, CAN, RUS, and JPN skaters. Top contendors IMO...

USA- Paniot, Naumov, Zhou, Ma
CAN- Sadovsky, Circelli, Phan, Orzel, Nadeau
RUS- Ignatov, Kondratyuk, Mozalev
JPN- Tomono, Shun Sato

LADIES
15 spots - Kihira, Shcherbakova, Tuktamysheva, Trusova, Tennell, Sakamoto, Miyahara, Ryabova, Yelim, Karen Chen, Kiibus, Haein, Schott. Add Loena and Mikutina for being top 12 @ Worlds.

9 spots - top 24 World Standings- Kostornaia, Eunsoo, Samodurova, Young, Medvedeva, Bell, Paganini, Higuchi, Starr

5 spots - top 20 SB score- Schizas, Taljegard, Zundert, Feigin, Urushadze

That is 29 spots. Top contendors for remaining 7ish spots...although I imagine some of these taking priority over the 5 SB score skaters from above..

USA- Amber Glenn, Alysa Liu, Audrey Shin
CAN- Schumacher, Bausback, Daleman, Ruiter
RUS- Valieva, Usacheva, Khromykh, Nugumanova
JPN- Matsuike, Mihara, Kawabe
CHN- Hongyi Chen
Starr Andrews for Skate America! Doesn’t the host federation have the chance of naming a competitor? Surely Bradie (US reigning champ) & Alysa (too hope for Olys & Toyota sponsored) will be the first two.
 

taz'smum

as @Jesche says - мама knows best
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IMO the ISU needs to think very carefully about the ranking points going into the next season.
All those who didn't compete in worlds will have no points for the 2020/21 season which will impact them for the next 2 seasons to come.
This will create unfairness, especially for juniors moving up to Seniors.
 
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Colonel Green

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Some of the Grand Prix seeding is going to be a bit wild this year — mainly thinking of ladies, where the second tier of the seeding has a lot of skaters who are improbable medal contenders. Add to that the next wave of Russian juniors graduating to senior (though with no JGP or Junior Worlds this season some of them may to struggle to get assignments).
 

Vagabond

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Assuming we go back to original format...
IIRC, host federations are still allowed three entries per discipline at their home event. I'm not sure whether the TES minimums apply to the host's skaters, but even if they do, there are skaters not on your lists who can be expected to receive invitations.
 

SamuraiK

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Are those WS top 24 spots considering the dropping of the 2018-19 season points ?
 

her grace

standing with Mariah
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IMO the ISU needs to think very carefully about the ranking points going into the next season.
All those who didn't compete in worlds will have no points for the 2020/21 season which will impact them for the next 2 seasons to come.
This will create unfairness, especially for juniors moving up to Seniors.

This is a very important point. One way the ISU could accommodate juniors and non-world participants would be to co-mingle the 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 SB lists for the purpose of determining the top 75 list of who is eligible for selection. It's always hard for juniors to be in the top 24 in WS anyway since their championship events are worth so much less.
 

screech

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So that is 31 spots. Leaving 5 more to use among US, CAN, RUS, and JPN skaters. Top contendors IMO...

USA- Paniot, Naumov, Zhou, Ma
CAN- Sadovsky, Circelli, Phan, Orzel, Nadeau
RUS- Ignatov, Kondratyuk, Mozalev
JPN- Tomono, Shun Sato
Don't forget Stephen Gogolev. I think Skate Canada would choose to give him a spot over everyone except Sadovsky. I also wouldn't be surprised if Roman gets 2 events, especially since he won a bronze in the last 'real' GP season.
 

haribobo

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Ladies World Standings after 2018-19 is dropped. Very rough calculations, rounded a bit. I did not reduce 2019-20 to 70%

1-5
Shcherbakova 3370
Trusova 3000
Kihira 2970
Tennell 2360
Kostornaia 2340
----------
6-10
Sakamoto 2120
Karen Chen 1950
Young 1890
Tuktamysheva 1700
Yelim 1630
----------
11-15
Ryabova 1610
Eunsoo 1430
Kiibus 1400
Satoko 1370
Haein 1290
------
16-20
Higuchi 1230
Tornaghi 1180
Kurakova 1170
Schott 1130
Mikutina 1120
----------
21-24
Valieva 1100
Starr 1080
Glenn 1050
Urushadze 1050

Others:
Samodurova 1030
Paganini 1010
Liu 970
Peltonen 960
Usacheva 960
Bell 960
Medvedeva 900
Feigin 880
Zagitova 830
Loena 790
Yokoi 400

Tursynbaeva will lose all her points and fall completely out of the rankings....

So Bell, Paganini, Samodurova, Medvedeva, Zagitova and Tursy are expected to fall out of the top 24, and be replaced by Valieva, Glenn, Urushadze, Tornaghi, Kurakova, and Mikutina
 
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haribobo

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Men World Standings after 2018-19 is dropped. Very rough calculations, rounded a bit. I did not reduce 2019-20 to 70%

1-5
Hanyu 3230
Chen 2400
Brown 2320
Kagiyama 2260
Aliev 2250
----------
6-10
Rizzo 2060
Grassl 2050
Moris 2020
Jin 1970
Messing 1930
-----------
11-15
Uno 1910
Aymoz 1790
Samarin 1780
Cha 1660
Vasiljevs 1440
----------
16-20
Danielian 1430
Mozalev 1370
Nam 1340
Selevko 1190
Gumennik 1170
---------
21-24
Camden 1160
Shun Sato 1140
Tanaka 1120
Ignatov 1080
---------
Others
Bychenko 1040
Litvintsev 1020
Fa 990
Tomono 940
Torgashev 870
Shmuratko 840
Tomoki 820
Kolyada 790
Sadovsky 740
Frangipani 700
Brezina 630
Zhou 240

Fell out of top 24: Kolyada, Brezina, Tomoki, Fa
Added to top 24: Sato, Mozalev, Selevko, Ignatov
 
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haribobo

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yea its only because Worlds 2020 was cancelled so Nathan (who skipped 4cc) got no championship points whereas Hanyu did 4CC
 

euterpe

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Nathan was at Yale and didn't do Challengers because traveling was too disruptive to his studies. He didn't do 4CC 2001 because it conflicted with his exams. When he took a break from school to prepare for the Olympics, C****** struck and most challenger events were cancelled and the ones that remained required travel, which was too dangerous at that time.

BTW, Hanyu never did Challengers either. The GP is more likely to be held this coming fall, and both men will likely compete there.
 

Sylvia

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BTW, Hanyu never did Challengers either.
When Hanyu was training in Canada he competed at Autumn Classic International (2015-2019).
I think it's hilarious that Nathan somehow isn't at the top of the standings for the Men despite not losing a competition in over 3 years. World rankings are such nonsense.
FWIW, Nathan is ranked #1 right now (though I doubt he really cares what his ranking is :D): http://www.isuresults.com/ws/ws/wsmen.htm
 

Colonel Green

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Nathan was at Yale and didn't do Challengers because traveling was too disruptive to his studies. He didn't do 4CC 2001 because it conflicted with his exams. When he took a break from school to prepare for the Olympics, C****** struck and most challenger events were cancelled and the ones that remained required travel, which was too dangerous at that time.
I know. And? I'm simply stating why his point totals are relatively low when he's so dominant at big events.
BTW, Hanyu never did Challengers either.
I'm not sure where you got that impression. Hanyu's attendance at the Autumn Classic is a ritual at this point.
 

Dobre

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IMO the ISU needs to think very carefully about the ranking points going into the next season.
All those who didn't compete in worlds will have no points for the 2020/21 season which will impact them for the next 2 seasons to come.
This will create unfairness, especially for juniors moving up to Seniors.
Why not just add this year's Worlds in to last season's World Standings & proceed from there? (We'll call it the 2019-21 Season. So you have the 2018-19 Season and the 19-21 Season.
 

Karen-W

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Why not just add this year's Worlds in to last season's World Standings & proceed from there? (We'll call it the 2019-21 Season. So you have the 2018-19 Season and the 19-21 Season.
Which is essentially what we are looking at right now, if you look at the standings. None of the skaters have anything in the 20-21 Season column except their WC points - no GP/JGP or Challenger points are listed.
 

Dobre

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Which is essentially what we are looking at right now, if you look at the standings. None of the skaters have anything in the 20-21 Season column except their WC points - no GP/JGP or Challenger points are listed.
And the only thing missing from last year's season was Worlds--hence leading to some wonky world standings there for athletes who had skipped or missed Euros/4CCs but were anticipating an entry at Worlds.
 

haribobo

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Men Top 24 SB score now includes Fa and Sadovsky (from WTT), and also Zandron and Demirboga (were already in top 24 but I left them off above to leave space for WTT)

Dance Top 24 SB score confirmed now, includes Taschlerova/Taschler, Soucisse/Firus, Fear/Waddell, and Popova/Byelikov

Ladies Top 24 Score likely to include Paganini, Lang, Saarinen, and H. Chen (score 168 to 162), but we shall see if any of ITA or CAN ladies from WTT tonight can challenge that.

ETA- Gutmann, Negrello, Schumacher all made it into top 24 SB along with Paganini.

Lang, Daleman, Saarinen, and H. Chen ended up in 25-28 place.
 
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AngieNikodinovLove

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Starr Andrews for Skate America! Doesn’t the host federation have the chance of naming a competitor? Surely Bradie (US reigning champ) & Alysa (too hope for Olys & Toyota sponsored) will be the first two.

I hope USFSA throws Amber the love and gives her skate America again since they passed her over for worlds

I think Amber gets two spots, hopefully skate America is one of them
 

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