2018-19 GP Potential Rosters (my guesses)

[Dobre]

Yes. If the Shibs come back (I don't think they will, but you never know) they'll get 2 GPs, but they won't be seeded. USFS could give them a host spot at SA if they choose. That wouldn't prevent H/D (or C/B) from competing there, but I would assume USFS wouldn't want to have 2 top teams at the same GP.

USFSA is unpredictable here, IMO. They kept the top three separate this season, and it worked. In fact, the top three competed in separate events throughout the entire GP this season. But this isn't the norm. Usually, at least two of the top three go head-to-head somewhere. (The Shibs and Hubbell & Donohue both went to NHK in 2015-16 and SA in 2016-17). It's quite common for USFSA to put #1 and #3 at Skate America. But in 2014 following the Olympics, they put their top 2 teams at Skate America. Both Chock & Bates and the Shibs. (I thought it was a lousy idea and didn't pay off, but they did it). USFSA has a lot of dance teams with one guaranteed spot that could use the SA dance berths.

 

[Dobre]

We won't know the seeding until after worlds. But here is the dancers in the top 20 that should get a GP or 2. Top 3 from worlds get 1st choice, than 4-6, then 6-12. I think Jr GPF and world champs get at least 1 if they are moving up.

No. That hasn't been true for several years. You have to be top 24 on the SB list or top 24 on the World Standings list to be guaranteed a GP as a junior skater. None of the junior dancers are going to make the SB list this year. (The junior FD base value is too low this season for any of the junior teams to earn a comparable score to the senior teams, no matter how high the juniors' levels are). None of the junior teams are currently top 24 on the World Standings list either, though Carreira & Ponomarenko and Skoptcova & Aleshin are not too far off. C&P would need three teams to drop below them after scores from two years ago are dropped. S&A would need three teams to drop.

That said, Skoptcova & Aleshin, who are both the Junior GPF and Junior World Champs, do have a good shot at being selected for a GP, as there are likely to be a lot of current teams declining to compete the GP next season. S&A's Season's Best score will climb substantially after that turnover, and there is probably room for them among the Russian teams. (Though they may have to fight out a priority placement with Shpilevaya & Smirnov and/or a few other teams if counting on a berth at Rostelecom).

 

[missing]

I'm bringing this thread back to life because there's been plenty of news about retirements/coaching changes since the last post and I love reading speculation and I'll be going to Skate Canada so I'm especially interested in people's speculations about who might be there.

 

[screech]

I'm bringing this thread back to life because there's been plenty of news about retirements/coaching changes since the last post and I love reading speculation and I'll be going to Skate Canada so I'm especially interested in people's speculations about who might be there.

For men, I think Keegan will be there (as the top Canadian man), and think Nic Nadeau too. Cha Jun-hwan was there last year, and since he trains in Toronto, makes sense. Shoma did Skate Canada last year, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him as the world top 3 there. But if he gets Skate Canada, I don't think Hanyu will be there.

Pairs, Canada will probably send Moore-Towers/Marinaro. Not sure about Seguin/Bilodeau. James/Cipres were at Skate Canada last year, so maybe they'll be the top 3 team that comes to Canada.

Not sure what Canada will do for dance. They usually send their top pair from Canadians (which would be Gilles/Poirier), but WeaPo are their overall top team, so I hope they get Skate Canada (if they're still competing). If not WeaPo then I predict Hubbell/Donohue as the top 3 team from worlds, since they were there last year.

Again, Skate Canada usually goes with Canadian champion, but I completely expect them to choose Kaetlyn over Gabby. I don't think both will be there, since there aren't enough top ladies to spread around. Kaetlyn is at Skate Canada basically every year, would represent the worlds top 3, and is overall Canada's top lady. I also kind of think Medvedeva will be there, since she's done Skate Canada before, and she'll be living in Toronto.

 

[Dobre]

Last year they had the Shibs with H&D because they were 9th at worlds. Shibs were seeded. They knew both teams would beat the 4-6 seed.

No, H&D competed at SA with the Shibs in 2016-17. H&D were the 6th seed heading into that season. (And there was no guarantee H&D would finish second at SA. Bobrova & Soloviev were there--unseeded having missed out on Worlds--and H&D split dances with them for 2nd place. They had split dances twice the season before as well).

H&D were the 9th seed heading into the 2017-18 seasons and all three U.S. teams attended different events. Again, it wasn't guaranteed that H&D would make the final. They bested Cappellini & Lanotte by a point and a half at NHK, which got H&D in. (And Weaver & Poje forfeited their 2nd place advantage at SC by blowing the twizzles and taking 4th at TDF).

 

[missing]

If Chock and Bates are truly moving to Montreal, I guess they'd be likely to be picked for Skate Canada.

 

[Debbie S]

If Chock and Bates are truly moving to Montreal, I guess they'd be likely to be picked for Skate Canada.

It likely depends on what the skaters (and their coaches) choose. I believe the feds are allowed to choose their home country skaters regardless of seeding, so if G/P make it clear they want to go to SC, the fed will presumably pick them and therefore no others from seeding group 4-6. I suspect C/B will choose later GPs, but we'll see.

 

[RoseRed]

Going over the list from the first post with my predictions, since we know a few more retirements now and have the updated WS lists:

MEN

Guaranteed two from Worlds: Chen, Uno, Kolyada, Bychenko (thinking of retiring), Tomono, Vasiljevs, Aliev, Messing, Brezina

Guaranteed one from SB: Hanyu, Jin, Zhou, Voronov, Brown, Tanaka, Yan (retiring?), Samarin, Hendrickx, Samohin, Kvitelashvili

Guaranteed one from WS: Matteo Rizzo, Roman Savosin, Alexei Krasnozhon

Not included in above lists because of retirements, etc: Ge (W-retired?), Aaron (W), Majorov (W-retiring?), Fernandez (sounds like he's not doing the GP anymore), Rippon (assuming from his interviews), Chan

Overall guesses

USA- 2 spots- Chen, Zhou, Brown, Krasnozhon (high SB+WS spot), Miner (if he continues). 1 spot- Johnson, Dolensky? (at least one of them maybe as the host pick?)
RUS- 2 spots- Aliev, Kolyada, Samarin, Voronov, Erokhov. 1 spot- Savosin, Dmitriev, Lazukin, Petrov
CAN- 2 spots- Messing, Nguyen, Nadeau. 1 spot- Sadovsky
JPN- 2 spots- Hanyu (assuming he's healthy), Uno, Tanaka, Tomono, 1 spot- Murakami?, Sumoto? (one as host pick)
CHN- 2 spots- Jin, Han?. 1 spot to whoever they give a host pick to
FRA- 1 spot- Chafik (if he's continuing), Ponsart, Aymoz
OTHER- 2 spots- Moris K, Vasiljevs, Hendrickx, Samohin, Kerry, Rizzo, Paniot, Cha
OTHER- 1 spot- Lee, Righini, Fentz, Yee

That leaves a couple of spots, so maybe Ponsart or Fentz will get a second spot.

Top 24 SB always seem to end up with two, so I started there. With that I have 43 spots used (with Bychenko and Han staying and the others retiring - I figure most of the unconfirmed will, but a couple won't, whether it's these two or others). So the guys just below top 24 SB have a good shot at two, especially since a bunch down there are retiring. Anyways, I just guessed at who'll get two vs just one (mostly went with the picks in the OP). I assumed that Savosin will go senior, but I don't actually know.

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LADIES

Guaranteed from Worlds: Osmond, Higuchi, Miyahara, Kostner (retiring?), Zagitova, Tennell, Daleman, Sotskova, Hendrickx, Nagasu (if she continues), Tursynbaeva, Bell

Guaranteed from SB: Medvedeva, Sakamoto, Mihara, Tsurskaya, Radionova, Konstantinova, Choi, Honda, Tuktamysheva, Panenkova, Matsuda, Yamashita

Guaranteed from WS: Chen, Hongo, Schott, Lecavelier, Rajicova

USA- 2 spots- Nagasu, Tennell, Chen, Bell, Wagner, Wang. 1 spot- Hicks, Zhang (if she's continuing), Andrews (as the host pick)
RUS- 2 spots- Medvedeva, Sotskova, Zagitova, Konstantinova, Tuktamysheva, Tsurskaya, Radionova, Panenkova. 1 spot- host pick (Gubanova, Samodurova)
CAN- 2 spots- Osmond, Daleman. 1 spot- Chartrand, host pick (best summer series results, maybe Austman)
JPN- 2 spots- Miyahara, Sakamoto, Higuchi, Mihara, Honda, Matsuda, Kihira, Yamashita. 1 spot- Hongo
CHN- 1 spot- X Li, Zhao, third host spot
FRA- 1 spot- Meite, Lecavelier
OTHER- 2 spots- Eunsoo Lim, Tursynbaeva, Choi, Hendrickx
OTHER- 1 spot- Hanul Kim, Craine, Schott, Rajicova

Here you have to consider the max spots per country for Japan and Russia. I have them both one spot under the max. I included Ashley because apparently Raf said in a interview that she hasn't decided for sure, but she's probably doing one more season. Not what I would have guessed, but if she isn't deciding for sure until August, then she'll be in the initial assignments. And distributing the last few spots is pure guessing.