... too many ladies with stronger all around skills.
While I agree with much of what you said, I totally do not believe Mirai doesn't have very strong all-around skills comparable with the top ladies in the world. Mirai is extremely talented as a figure skater. What has held her back IMO, is not having been able so far to put it altogether big time in competition, and therefore being saddled with some negative rep that has had her fed being tepid re full and unwavering support. Mirai was an amazing up-and-comer with so much talent and potential. But if you have personal issues off the ice, if things don't come together for you with the right coach to guide you early in your career, and if your maturity as a person lags behind, you will face difficult challenges in building rep and capitalizing on momentum.
Personally, I thought it was premature to reward Mirai the U.S. National championship in 2008 because she was too young to attend Worlds and psychologically it ended up being huge pressure for her to carry that championship mantle. However, looking back, Mirai did compete that year better than everyone else, so in that sense she deserved the win. It's incredible that she hasn't won another U.S. gold medal, especially when I think of her great showing at 2010 Olympics. But apparently Mirai was unfortunate during that time in not having the right mindset nor the right coach (for her) to get the job done immediately post-2010 Olympics. As a result (and due to other complicated factors), Mirai began to wear out USFS' belief in her, which has taken a long time to repair and rebuild. Everything has not been all Mirai's fault, of course, but the best way to show TPTB you will not be denied, is to do just that!
The table was set for Mirai at 2017 U.S. Nationals, and she came very close, but no cigar. Did she learn from that experience, or is she content to grab medals at secondary competitions? Mirai definitely has more than the 3-axel under her belt. With Tom Z's support, Mirai has come into her own. It's just that apparently there are still many doubters and naysayers among USFS. For her part, Mirai definitely needs to show more confidence and self-belief in competition and signal that she has more of a killer instinct. She needs to be more fully engaged and committed to her choreo (and that aspect of her skating is improving). She does need to work on managing her speed, but she's seemed to have conquered her under-rotations, and frankly there has been way too much inaccurate nitpicking re 'presumed' URs. I think sometimes judges overuse downgrading on close calls in order to manipulate placements. And when you get labeled with UR rep, it's often a struggle to change people's minds, even when you've skated completely clean.
Mirai is not in the position of Kaetlyn Osmond (positive rep despite nerves and some inconsistencies partly due to coming back from injury in 2015-16). Osmond has an edge in speed and power over Mirai, but Mirai has some very high class abilities, particularly as a spinner. As others have pointed out too, Mirai does have good speed, but it's a matter of her managing it effectively and maintaining it consistently throughout her performances. Plus, Mirai's jumping skills are nothing to sneeze at, especially with the improvements she's made under Tom Z. What Osmond has more-so over Mirai is a strong federation politically, that is 110% behind her with full hype & promo, and ISU judges very willing to get on board. OTOH, Mirai has grown more and more each year she's been with Tom Z, and she does have some opportunities this season along with the ability to shine and to
. But she's got to be steady and purposeful in trying to build rep and make a
statement if she wants to be seen as a major medal contender. Most of all, she's got to know what she wants and go after it all the way. Not being given enough support and cred by your fed can be an issue, but it can be overcome by strong motivation, a confident sense of purpose, and strength of will.
At this point, I think Karen as U.S. National champ, is more fully backed politically. But then Karen did show up with a sense of purpose and strong programs at 2017 Nationals. Also, Karen is seeming to thrive and prosper after the hurdles she faced at 4CCs in February. But no U.S. lady has built up so much cred yet as to be seen as the definitive front-runner at Nationals. I think skaters are taking the fall GP campaign very seriously in regard to #DestinationPyeongchang!
. . . Too bad it was the wrong answer 
