U.S. Women [#8]: Meet Me in St. Louis

That sounds like usfs pr to me!
Elizaveta also interviewed Ilia. There's a short clip of it on X. I haven't gone on there in forever but someone posted it on GoldSk8 (iirc).

Not sure why you would think that Tuktamysheva would be conspiring with USFS, promoting fake PR on Alysa's behalf. Since her return both Liu and her coaches have said that she's been training a 3A. And there's footage of her attempting them at some practices.

Jeezus, the Doubting Thomases in this thread when it comes to Alysa's costumes, Gaga FS and now her (elusive) 3A have me SMH. 🤦🏼‍♀️
 
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The whole idea of never doing a jump a whole season and just doing at Olympics is USFS PR. Thy have been doing that for decades now. Saying that skaters can just do something like a quad or 3A at the Olympics. it’s just not true. Even if Liu is practicing it it’s never going to be done. It just doesn’t work that way
 
The whole idea of never doing a jump a whole season and just doing at Olympics is USFS PR. Thy have been doing that for decades now. Saying that skaters can just do something like a quad or 3A at the Olympics. it’s just not true. Even if Liu is practicing it it’s never going to be done. It just doesn’t work that way
Isn't that exactly what she did the last time she was at the Olympics though? She went for the triple axel kind of out of no where. Hopefully she will have more sucess this time.
 
Isn't that exactly what she did the last time she was at the Olympics though? She went for the triple axel kind of out of no where. Hopefully she will have more sucess this time.
That shows why it’s silly! You can’t just pull a quad or triple axel out of nowhere. It must be done all season. And now that’s she’s winning without one it will certainly never be tried
 
That shows why it’s silly! You can’t just pull a quad or triple axel out of nowhere. It must be done all season. And now that’s she’s winning without one it will certainly never be tried
To be honest she needs a 3axel though otherwise she's at the mercy of the other skaters making mistakes and that won't always happen. Someone is bound to finally be clean. As for the new FS that ship has sailed now debuting a new program in front of international judges for the first time at the Olympics is asking a lot.
 
The whole idea of never doing a jump a whole season and just doing at Olympics is USFS PR. Thy have been doing that for decades now. Saying that skaters can just do something like a quad or 3A at the Olympics. it’s just not true. Even if Liu is practicing it it’s never going to be done. It just doesn’t work that way

IIRC Sarah Hughes had never done the 3T+3Lo successfully before the Olympics, and she hadn't even attempted it in two seasons.

By not doing it she is guaranteed gold.

What are you smoking today? :lol:
 
To be honest she needs a 3axel though otherwise she's at the mercy of the other skaters making mistakes and that won't always happen. Someone is bound to finally be clean.

IIRC Sarah Hughes had never done the 3T+3Lo successfully before the Olympics, and she hadn't even attempted it in two seasons.

Sarah wasn't considered a favorite to win, so why not go for it if she was doing it well in practice and they thought she needed it to medal?

Alysa obviously can win major competitions without the triple axel, and she is a favorite for an Olympic win/podium. Yes, she needed other people to make mistakes at Worlds and at the GPF, but it's not at all uncommon for the top women to have a mistake in major competitions these days. Kaori often makes a mistake. Mone, who has been so consistent, was off in her GPF long program. (I can't imagine the pressure the Japanese women are feeling right now.) Last year's GPF was a mess overall.

I can see why Ami and Rinka go for the triple axel even though they are not consistent, because they probably feel like they need it in order to make the Olympic team.

It makes perfect sense for Amber to include the triple axel because she's quite consistent with it and it is what has helped her win and medal.

But, we have no idea how often Alysa lands a triple axel in her runthroughs. She says she's practicing it almost every day but doesn't feel comfortable including it yet, so it makes sense for her not to include it, esepcailly if she is jeopardizing a win/medal. If she is landing it consistently in runthroughs by Nationals and she feels comfortable including it, then it would be great to see her do it.
 
To be honest she needs a 3axel though otherwise she's at the mercy of the other skaters making mistakes and that won't always happen. Someone is bound to finally be clean. As for the new FS that ship has sailed now debuting a new program in front of international judges for the first time at the Olympics is asking a lot.
As Peggy Fleming likes to say, skaters don't usually win the Olympic Gold Medal by skating their best. They win by skating better than their competition. She uses herself as an example.

Liu might not win in Milan, but she seems to rise to the occasion better than her nearest rivals.
 
I think if Alysa wants to, she can get the Gaga program ready for nationals. A month is not oodles of time, but it could be done especially since she’s supposedly already been working on it. But at this point I’d question if she sees it as necessary. She’s scoring well as is. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Interesting conversation about Sarah Hughes. She ended up only changing about the last third of the program between nationals and the Olympics. Originally that was the part that changed to Rach 2 from Daphnis and Chloe inexplicably, and also ended on a bit of a wimper. I think Robin was absolutely correct to change that. The music was far more cohesive in SLC and also built to a finish. But in its entirety, not really that much of the program changed.

Interestingly though, she was toying with going back to Turandot pretty late in that season. She did it instead of Don Q as her second LP at the GPF in December and she also did it at whatever the December 2001 cheesefest was (Marshall’s or Campbell’s?). I think pretty much everyone else did show programs, but she did a that competitive program and Peggy mentioned she was thinking of going back to it. The other night I happened to see this in my YouTube feed and I’d totally forgotten she was openly saying they might ditch the original LP that season.
 
I think if Alysa wants to, she can get the Gaga program ready for nationals. A month is not oodles of time, but it could be done especially since she’s supposedly already been working on it. But at this point I’d question if she sees it as necessary. She’s scoring well as is. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Interesting conversation about Sarah Hughes. She ended up only changing about the last third of the program between nationals and the Olympics. Originally that was the part that changed to Rach 2 from Daphnis and Chloe inexplicably, and also ended on a bit of a wimper. I think Robin was absolutely correct to change that. The music was far more cohesive in SLC and also built to a finish. But in its entirety, not really that much of the program changed.

Interestingly though, she was toying with going back to Turandot pretty late in that season. She did it instead of Don Q as her second LP at the GPF in December and she also did it at whatever the December 2001 cheesefest was (Marshall’s or Campbell’s?). I think pretty much everyone else did show programs, but she did a that competitive program and Peggy mentioned she was thinking of going back to it. The other night I happened to see this in my YouTube feed and I’d totally forgotten she was openly saying they might ditch the original LP that season.
I could see Alysa changing to Gaga for artistic, rather than competitive reasons. As we've seen with the 3lz/3lp, it's sometimes more about the challenge than the points.
 
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The whole idea of never doing a jump a whole season and just doing at Olympics is USFS PR. Thy have been doing that for decades now. Saying that skaters can just do something like a quad or 3A at the Olympics. it’s just not true. Even if Liu is practicing it it’s never going to be done. It just doesn’t work that way

Where on Earth did USFS say or do anything at all, in relation to this particular Russian interview, as to promoting the idea of a possible 3A for Alysa??? Liu was responding to a direct question from Liza Tuktamysheva for Russian television! How do you get from there to the notion that this is a sinister plot from USFS, they're lying and promoting fake PR on Alysa's behalf over a 3A??? 🤔

And BTW - if any skater is crazy enough to go for a 3A at the 2026 Olympics, after not even competing one since 2022 - my bet would be entirely on Alysa Liu! Coming from her, NOTHING would surprise me anymore!
 
Alysa is a good strategist. She threads the needle when it comes to competing with the JPN women. IOW, her consistency allows her to slip past skaters like Kaori (x2 now) and Ami when they have a mistake. But my big question is what happens when the top JPN women are clean? Someone is bound to be at the Olympics, and then Adelya Petrosyan will be there ....

ETA - My spidey senses tell me that the battle for gold in Milano will be between Kaori and Adelya (how is she these days?) based on nothing but my gut. I think Alysa would be a solid bronze bet. In my mind, I wonder if she's at some sort of ceiling scoring-wise, so I think for team USA, the one shot at gold would be if Amber had back-to-back skates of her life, because she has the highest scoring potential, but what are the chances? Anyway, let's hope for great skates from all.

BTW - Bradie just scored 132 points in her LP at Golden Spin. Go Bradie!
 
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ETA - My spidey senses tell me that the battle for gold in Milano will be between Kaori and Adelya (how is she these days?) based on nothing but my gut. I think Alysa would be a solid bronze bet. In my mind, I wonder if she's at some sort of ceiling scoring-wise, so I think for team USA, the one shot at gold would be if Amber had back-to-back skates of her life, because she has the highest scoring potential, but what are the chances? Anyway, let's hope for great skates from all.
Adeliia isn't going to be a factor in Milano-Cortina. She's still injured and attempting quads at the Russian GP events without much success. I don't think she even makes the final flight of women for the Olympics FS - she only scored 68.72 at the Skate to Milano qualifier with a 2A. The top Japanese & US women will surpass that easily if they're clean - and even if they're not, there are plenty of other women who will knock her into the lower half of the top 10 after the SP, IMO.

I actually agree with those who think gold will come down to Alysa & Kaori. That previous Olympic experience is going to be a huge factor that will hold them in good stead.
 
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BTW - Bradie just scored 132 points in her LP at Golden Spin. Go Bradie!
Thanks for reminding me to re-post the results from the Kiss & Cry competition thread...

GOLD Bradie TENNELL USA 194.97 1 [62.80] 1 [132.17 is her new ISU SB]
5 Elyce LIN-GRACEY USA 175.80 5 [59.84] 5 [115.96] - ISU SBs in FS & total
11 Ava Marie ZIEGLER USA 150.98 12 [51.83] 13

FS scores:
1 Bradie TENNELL USA 132.17 69.82 62.35 7.80 7.75 7.80 0.00 #30 - 3Lz+3Tq, 3Lo+2A, 3F, 2A / 3Lz+2T+2Lo, 3S, 3Lo; all L4 spins & L3 steps - fan cam: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJRPtkMJxdk
5 Elyce LIN-GRACEY USA 115.96 60.02 55.94 6.95 6.85 7.15 0.00 #26
13 Ava Marie ZIEGLER USA 99.15 48.82 52.33 6.55 6.35 6.70 2.00 #19

Photos & Quotes after the FS via Golden Skate:

Bradie: https://x.com/goldenskate/status/1997301477488906423
“I think it was an improvement from Finland in a lot of ways. I just felt much more relaxed here. Honestly, I’ve been really sick since Finland — this was my first full run-through of the free skate since I competed there — so I’m really pleased with how it went. I really just enjoyed performing, so I’m very happy.”
On potentially withdrawing because of her illness: “Well, I started to feel a bit better. I mean, I’m still sick, I’m still coughing and everything, but I think it was important for me to push through and prove to myself that I can do a free skate like that even if I don’t feel well and haven’t trained as much as I wanted to. It’s a good experience.”
On the strange practice schedule at this event: “There was no practice before either program — just a five-minute warm-up. I had competitions like this before, but never ahead of the free skate. So I was just like, okay, we will see how it goes, just like everything else.”
On her plans for the next weeks: “I’m just going to go home and train. My mom is going to come visit me over Christmas because Nationals is too close to Christmas this year, so I can’t go home and see them. So my mom’s going to come visit me. I’m really excited for that — to see her.”

Ava: https://x.com/goldenskate/status/1997273455419424952
“I’m very happy and fortunate to be back on the international stage. I mean, obviously this season isn’t what I wanted it to be, but after two years not competing, I really had to go back and relearn everything, even the small things. So every competition and every practice is just another stepping stone, figuring out how to be not exactly how I was, but to be ten times better.
Because in my mind, originally, I was kind of trying to recreate what I was, and that wasn’t working. So now I’m recreating my whole being to not be what it was, but what it can be, and make it even better. It’s a matter of mindset. I try not to put pressure on myself. I just go into every day being thankful that my doctors and my team were able to save my hip and make me stronger, because there was a very high chance that I wouldn’t have been able to recover and my career would have been over. So just the outlook on everything, every day I try to be super grateful.
On what helped her through the difficult period: “I mean, my whole support system. I work with Caroline Silby— she’s been a huge piece of this. My parents and my coaches have been such a huge support. All my friends back home… everything. They are all part of the bigger picture.”
She fully started training in September.
“I ran my first run-throughs in September with doubles, and then I was closer to triples by the end of September. So it’s been a very long but also very short time.”
On her free skate: “There are so many different meanings. At the end there’s a ticking clock. My outlook on it is just like… not everything is forever, so make it beautiful while it lasts before it dies. Like a flower is beautiful, but then when it dies it gets all wilted. So it’s just about finding the beauty in things and not taking it for granted before it’s gone.”
:respec:
 
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I think Alysa would be a solid bronze bet. In my mind, I wonder if she's at some sort of ceiling scoring-wise, so I think for team USA, the one shot at gold would be if Amber had back-to-back skates of her life, because she has the highest scoring potential, but what are the chances? Anyway, let's hope for great skates from all.

Glenn has the highest base value, but I don't think she has the highest scoring potential of the Americans. She doesn't get the same GOE or PCS as Liu or even Levito.

While she is getting the jumps done, the judges are not rating the quality of her elements or (especially) the program as highly as others. With one called jump each, Liu had a 2 point advantage on GOEs and 3.5 point advantage on PCS. She closed the triple axel gap right there.

I don't think Glenn will get the marks to win even with two clean programs. Ami Nakai is beating her on PCS, and she is six points behind Sakamoto in PCS. Sakamoto can also usually rack up 15 points in GOE, 4-5 more than Glenn at her best.
 
Glenn has the highest base value, but I don't think she has the highest scoring potential of the Americans. She doesn't get the same GOE or PCS as Liu or even Levito.

While she is getting the jumps done, the judges are not rating the quality of her elements or (especially) the program as highly as others. With one called jump each, Liu had a 2 point advantage on GOEs and 3.5 point advantage on PCS. She closed the triple axel gap right there.

I don't think Glenn will get the marks to win even with two clean programs. Ami Nakai is beating her on PCS, and she is six points behind Sakamoto in PCS. Sakamoto can also usually rack up 15 points in GOE, 4-5 more than Glenn at her best.
Fair points.Thanks for quanitifying them but after I posted, I pondered the emotional impact of Amber having the skates of her life and what that would do to the judges re GOE and PCS. Crowds love her and her story, it seems. Another thought I had was Amber's SP PB is at 78+ points and LP is nearly 149 points, which is around 227 points, but I guess you could argue that Alysa w/o any q calls would be around that number, too. The thing though is Alysa more subject to a q or carrot then Amber? It seemed that way. Amber had an issue with a q or carrot on the 3-3 recently but that is resolved, hopefully. Which US woman can 'get there' most easily; the marks that would be competitive with Kaori.

It will be fascinating to see what condition Adelya is in and how the judges evaluate her as a neutral athlete on her own, no dark shadow of the Russian presence to preside over the judges (could that realistically be a situation?)

BTW, the top 6 international mean scores are Kaori, Mone, Ami, Amber, Alysa and Isabeau right now, with their being a gap of 8 points to Gubanove a #7, then Louna, who is not doing well right now, and Lari Naki Gutmann, then a few points to Sofia Samodelkina, but she is on the rise
 
Gubanova and Gutmann are competing for a TE medal, and it will be neck and neck based on recent scores. I think Alysa will win the short program based on her track record with it, USFS would be idiots not to give her the SP.

I expect at least one big surprise with women at Nats and Olys.
 
Alysa is clearly the best bet under extreme pressure. For that same reason I thought USFS should have selected her for the Team event last Olympics instead of Karen Chen. Isabeau is also very good with pressure. Amber to me is the one most susceptible to pressure unfortunately. And her triple axel advantage is negated by shaky skates and others now also doing consistent triple axels. And as pointed out the judges are stingy with GOE for her..which I haven’t figured out why relative to others, except she often projects fear.

Crazy to think that Amber won Japanese Nationals last year and now Alysa won it this year. Alysa just keeps doing her thing, really not improving from last year and it’s working for her. But with lower base value she kind of has to depend on others mistakes. I’m constantly amazed at her head for competition.
 
Amber to me is the one most susceptible to pressure unfortunately. And her triple axel advantage is negated by shaky skates and others now also doing consistent triple axels. And as pointed out the judges are stingy with GOE for her..which I haven’t figured out why relative to others, except she often projects fear.
She’s very fast but at the same time to me she always looks like she’s rushing. She might do better to take out some of the transitions and hold and edge from time to time. JMO
 
I thought this had to do with the threats against Liu in China specifically.
We've never been given a lot of insight into how the USFS selects the TE members and, on paper, Alysa would have been the choice of a lot of fans in 2022. After the news about her dad & the Beijing concerns, some people assumed that was the reason she wasn't used for the TE, but there's equal evidence to support the choice of Chen based on the 2021 Worlds result and WS at that point in the 2022 season.
 

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