Alysa is clearly the best bet under extreme pressure. For that same reason I thought USFS should have selected her for the Team event last Olympics instead of Karen Chen. Isabeau is also very good with pressure. Amber to me is the one most susceptible to pressure unfortunately. And her triple axel advantage is negated by shaky skates and others now also doing consistent triple axels. And as pointed out the judges are stingy with GOE for her..which I haven’t figured out why relative to others, except she often projects fear.
Crazy to think that Amber won Japanese Nationals last year and now Alysa won it this year. Alysa just keeps doing her thing, really not improving from last year and it’s working for her. But with lower base value she kind of has to depend on others mistakes. I’m constantly amazed at her head for competition.
Alysa did make one improvement to her SP compared to last season. She moved her combo to the bonus and upgraded it from a 3L-3T to a 3L-3R. On one of his videos, Jackie Wong said that this is a good strategy for Alysa. If she's going to get called on the second jump of her combo, better that it's on a harder combo in the bonus, than on the easier one early on in the program. In fact, she's been getting called on her 3L-3T in her FS too. Imo, she should upgrade that combo as well to a 3L-3R. And if she has the stamina, she should try doing BOTH her Lutz combo, and her Lutz Sequence in the second half of her FS!
I do agree that without an Ultra C jump Alysa's individual medal chances are out of her control, and dependant on others making costly mistakes (especially in the SP). Lightning struck twice for her in the year 2025 but not sure it's going to happen at the 2026 Olympics, the every four years Crown Jewel International Festival of Sports!
Speaking of Ultra C jumps, apart from her 3A, I wonder if Alysa might try to get her Quads back after the Games?
As to Adeliia Petrosian, I think that she absolutely could be a podium threat if the Olympic judges don't bury her in the SP, and especially if she can get her 3A back, as well as her quad. She did land at least one at a recent competition (and cried tears of happiness afterwards!).
I think that Amber doesn't get the PCS that she deserves! Imo, her performance quality is superior to Ami and Mone's! The only drawback I suppose is her long entry into her HUGE 3A. Some are insisting that she's telegraphing the jump but this is a HARD jump and even several men struggle with the 3A!
