U.S. Women [#4]: How Dare You

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olympic said:
Isabeau - The good and and the bad: Great attitude; love the confidence [paraphrased] - I knew I would win if I skated clean! She is a performer and bendy a la Sasha, but can jump and rotate. How refreshing! OTOH, she has a strange jump technique. She reminds me of an Eteri skater who muscles the jumps (which I criticize) and I have to wonder how long her jumps will last once she grows more. Still, unlike an Eteri skater, she smiles, radiates, and is pleasant to watch for her performative qualities.

Bradie - I love her determination and I get the feeling that she is a US woman who is more likely to hit than miss on the jumps. Her style and choreo is unique and quite watchable IMO. Dependable.

Amber - Best US jumper since Gracie circa 2016. The silly mistakes on the easier jumps though, UGH.

Andrews - I was never a fan, but nice to see what a fighter she is. I like the fact that she went for the 3F, but she needs the full arsenal to be competitive.

Thorngren - I like her and her determination

I like the fact that the women didn't leave everything on the floor here. I think it means that they are likely to have more gas in the tank for Worlds.
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I respect and agree with just about everything you said
 
Frau Muller said:
Eh, no. Lindsay has “blossomed out” since the last year. Very mature physique. Last night was a miracle in eking out content.
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Whether it’s physique or not, I don’t think an international panel will give credit to just about any of her jumps. Her jumps are < by default, q if she’s lucky, and << if she’s off. And her flip deserves a full “e.”

I’m not sure she helps the US’s chances at Junior Worlds.
 
DreamSkates said:
How much do those points matter ?
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They determine the start order at Worlds so they're a big deal.

I'm glad the top 3 are going to 4CC. Levito should definitely go--she's a favorite to win! Tennell needs the world standings points (and perhaps a realistic caller) to help her prepare for Worlds. Glenn needs post-season championship experience.
 
AngieNikodinovLove said:
Well without the points she’ll be in a very early group if not the first group because her points are so low and you know the tendency for judges to not score PCS as how they should be when your in an earlier group
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Welllllllll, yes and no. Sure, her PCS might be on the lower side, but she's a former Worlds Top 6 and not at all unknown to the judges, so she's not going to get lowballed the way the new Hungarian pairs team did in the SP at Euros on Wednesday. She'll be fine, though it might be enough to push her into the penultimate group for the FS, but there's no guarantee she wouldn't wind up in that group even if she skates in the second half of the SP.
 
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AngieNikodinovLove said:
Well without the points she’ll be in a very early group if not the first group because her points are so low and you know the tendency for judges to not score PCS as how they should be when your in an earlier group
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Right now, in terms of the women who will be at 4CC, Bradie ranks 11th, so she'd likely be in the last 12 to skate the SP there.

If she finished at least top 4 at 4CC, she'd rank within the top 24 on the WR list. That might not get her into the final two groups for the Worlds SP, but she wouldn't be far off.
 
AngieNikodinovLove said:
Well without the points she’ll be in a very early group if not the first group because her points are so low and you know the tendency for judges to not score PCS as how they should be when your in an earlier group
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Karen-W said:
Welllllllll, yes and no. Sure, her PCS might be on the lower side, but she's a former Worlds Top 6 and not at all unknown to the judges, so she's not going to get lowballed the way the new Hungarian pairs team did in the SP at Euros on Wednesday. She'll be fine, though it might be enough to push her into the penultimate group for thr FS, but there's no guarantee she wouldn't wind up in that group even if she skates in the second half of the SP.
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I think the bigger problem than rankings is that her recent international skates have not been great. She improved significantly at nationals and appears to be on a good trajectory. IMO, 4CCs is important in the lead up to Worlds so that she can re-set the perceptions of the judges. That seems much more important than her rankings.
 
mtnskater said:
Alysa Liu was in the SAP center this afternoon officially signing autographs. Glad USFS lured her back to make an appearance. The line was consistently long. I would not have recognized her had she just walked by. She has long blondish hair and very dramatic makeup, including dark red lipstick and a hat with cat ears. Looks like she still has her braces on. Fun to see that she hasn’t disappeared completely.
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Well, she retired before she burned out and chose to live a normal life. I think she left on a high note and on her own terms, which wouldn't make it that hard to come back on occasion. I wouldn't be surprised if we see her do occasional shows or appearances -making occasional appearances for autographs or shows doesn't necessarily conflict with having a private life.
 
ETA: I made some calculation changes below to account for Y. Kim, Lee, and Schizas only able to earn incremental championship points.

So, the WS thing for starting orders, based on the current entries for 4C's, where there would be 12 in each of starting earlier and starting later, four groups of six, and assuming no more internationals:

5. Y. Kim
7. Lee
10. Levito
14. Schizas
21. Watanabe (one open slot)
25. Glenn

38. C. Kim (one open slot)
48. Ting
60. Tennell (one open slot)
67. Hong
68. Yoshida (two open slots)
83. Chiba (two open slots)

Draw for first two groups:
86. Frank, 104. Prasad, 112. So, 121. Vasiliev, 127. Miclette, 136. Rakhishova, 139. Cheung, 151. Levkovets, 166. Chow, 187. Farafonova, 197. Garza, 205. Dupuis

I'd forgotten than Yoshida and Chiba were competing for JPN at 4C's, not Sakamoto or Mihara. No one can catch Sakamoto with a win at 4C's. There are only three skaters who could bump Mihara -- Y. Kim and Lee, who will by finishing ETA who need to finish 10th or higher and 8th or higher respectively, and Levito (needs 269 or 11th+) -- down the WS list, but not out of the last group.. (Schizas is within 800 pts total, but she can only earn incremental points since two championship slots are already in that total.) Both Mihara and Sakamoto have an open international slot, but there's no point.

Sakamoto and Mihara not skating should make it easier for at least Glenn and Tennell to earn more WS points before Worlds.

In December RoseRed put together a preliminary list of earned slots with skaters who had the minimums and skated in the Fall. There were 30, but without Pinzarrone, who was a ? at the time, but just placed 5th at Euros, which would make 31. Ting could also earn the missing SP minimum at 4C's; her high is 30.41. There were also two skaters with the minimums who haven't skated recently -- Urushadze since 2020-21, and Yi Zhu, because I don't think we know if CHN is sending anyone to Worlds this year. Since odd numbered fields have the +1 in the later half, I think a safe cut-off for "skating later" is 16.

So, for Worlds,

"Skating later" guaranteed, because they can't be pushed down below 16 regardless of what happens at 4C's:

Guaranteed last group: Hendrickx, Sakamoto, Mihara, Kim
Guaranteed Top 12:
  • Gubanova*, Lee, Kurakova, Levito, with Lee and Levito the most likely to move into the Final group after 4C's.
  • Petrokina* (can be passed by Schizas with 6th 5th or higher, and by Watanabe with 2nd or higher, so no lower than 11th)
  • Schott (can be passed by Schizas with 19th 7th or above, Watanabe with 4th or above, so no lower than 12th)
Guaranteed Top 16:
  • Schizas (can be passed by Watanabe with 8th 16th or above, and by Glenn with a podium finish 7th or above so no lower than 13th)
Fighting for Top 16:
  • Glenn (can be passed by C. Kim, if Kim earns 297+ more WS points, by Ting, if Ting earns 444+ more WS points, by Tennell, if Tennell earns 642+ more WS points, Hong, if Hong earns 706+ more points, ie, Glenn doesn't finish. So in Top 16 if only three or fewer happen, and lowest is 18th if all of them happen.)

*Euros skaters with open international slots:

If they really want Gubanova in the last group, because she is only 11 points ahead of Lee and 222 ahead of Levito, they could sign her up for an international -- she has an open slot -- and see if she could pass one or both with up to 250 points.

Petrokina couldn't make it into the final group with a win at an international, and she is at no risk of falling out of the penultimate group, but you never know.

Pinzarrone is 203 points behind Glenn -- a bronze at an international would tie them if Glenn doesn't earn more, ie, doesn't finish at 4C's (every Woman at 4C's is guaranteed at least 74 for finishing.)
 
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@kwanfan1818 Thanks for the breakdown! There is also the possibility that the ISU lowers the SP TES min for Worlds or that more women qualify at some of the senior Bs in the next 5 weeks. I suppose that's a discussion for another thread, but it would change the 2nd half group size for Worlds. :)
 
kwanfan1818 said:
So, the WS thing for starting orders, based on the current entries for 4C's, where there would be 12 in each of starting earlier and starting later, four groups of six, and assuming no more internationals:

5. Y. Kim
7. Lee
10. Levito
14. Schizas
21. Watanabe (one open slot)
25. Glenn

38. C. Kim (one open slot)
48. Ting
60. Tennell (one open slot)
67. Hong
68. Yoshida (two open slots)
83. Chiba (two open slots)

Draw for first two groups:
86. Frank, 104. Prasad, 112. So, 121. Vasiliev, 127. Miclette, 136. Rakhishova, 139. Cheung, 151. Levkovets, 166. Chow, 187. Farafonova, 197. Garza, 205. Dupuis

I'd forgotten than Yoshida and Chiba were competing for JPN at 4C's, not Sakamoto or Mihara. No one can catch Sakamoto with a win at 4C's. There are only three skaters who could bump Mihara -- Y. Kim and Lee, who will by finishing, and Levito (needs 269 or 11th+) -- down the WS list, but not out of the last group.. (Schizas is within 800 pts total, but she can only earn incremental points since two championship slots are already in that total.) Both Mihara and Sakamoto have an open international slot, but there's no point.

Sakamoto and Mihara not skating should make it easier for at least Glenn and Tennell to earn more WS points before Worlds.

In December RoseRed put together a preliminary list of earned slots with skaters who had the minimums and skated in the Fall. There were 30, but without Pinzarrone, who was a ? at the time, but just placed 5th at Euros, which would make 31. Ting could also earn the missing SP minimum at 4C's; her high is 30.41. There were also two skaters with the minimums who haven't skated recently -- Urushadze since 2020-21, and Yi Zhu, because I don't think we know if CHN is sending anyone to Worlds this year. Since odd numbered fields have the +1 in the later half, I think a safe cut-off for "skating later" is 16.

So, for Worlds,

"Skating later" guaranteed, because they can't be pushed down below 16 regardless of what happens at 4C's:

Guaranteed last group: Hendrickx, Sakamoto, Mihara, Kim
Guaranteed Top 12:
  • Gubanova*, Lee, Kurakova, Levito, with Lee and Levito the most likely to move into the Final group after 4C's.
  • Petrokina* (can be passed by Schizas with 6th or higher, and by Watanabe with 2nd or higher, so no lower than 11th)
  • Schott (can be passed by Schizas with 19th or above, Watanabe with 4th or above, so no lower than 12th)
Guaranteed Top 16:
  • Schizas (can be passed by Watanabe with 8th or above, and by Glenn with a podium finish so no lower than 13th)
Fighting for Top 16:
  • Glenn (can be passed by C. Kim, if Kim earns 297+ more WS points, by Ting, if Ting earns 444+ more WS points, by Tennell, if Tennell earns 642+ more WS points, Hong, if Hong earns 706+ more points, ie, Glenn doesn't finish. So in Top 16 if only three or fewer happen, and lowest is 18th if all of them happen.)

*Euros skaters with open international slots:

If they really want Gubanova in the last group, because she is only 11 points ahead of Lee and 222 ahead of Levito, they could sign her up for an international -- she has an open slot -- and see if she could pass one or both with up to 250 points.

Petrokina couldn't make it into the final group with a win at an international, and she is at no risk of falling out of the penultimate group, but you never know.

Pinzarrone is 203 points behind Glenn -- a bronze at an international would tie them if Glenn doesn't earn more, ie, doesn't finish at 4C's (every Woman at 4C's is guaranteed at least 74 for finishing.)
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composing this possessed a dedication and a math skill that needs to be applauded. And cookies should be sent to your house tomorrow
 
It was so nice to see Ting Cui back competing at Nationals. She has matured so much, both physically and in her skating.

She still has such lovely flow and expert edging, beautiful posture, extension and line, wonderful use of her arms (port de bras), and an innate sensitivity to and expressiveness to her music. Yet, I see a new sense of calm and intention. She no longer seems to rush her timing or get ahead of herself. She's relaxing into everything. It's great to see.
 
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It kinda stinks that while most of these women were eligible to earn points at Euros/4CCS/Worlds/Jr Worlds last year, Amber was an Olympics alternate and couldn't go to 4CCs.

Thanks to kwanfan for doing all the math and recap!

So it looks like...

Group 1 Hendrix, Sakamoto, Mihara, Kim, Lee, Levito
Group 2 (with many variables in play) - Gubanova, Kurakova, Petrokina, Schott, Schizas, Repond (is she going to Jr. Worlds instead?)
Group 3 (with many more variables) - Watanabe, Glenn, Gutmann, Tennell, Kim C., Sauter
 
SidelineSkater said:
So it looks like...

Group 1 Hendrix, Sakamoto, Mihara, Kim, Lee, Levito
Group 2 (with many variables in play) - Gubanova, Kurakova, Petrokina, Schott, Schizas, Repond (is she going to Jr. Worlds instead?)
Group 3 (with many more variables) - Watanabe, Glenn, Gutmann, Tennell, Kim C., Sauter
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Repond was in the top 10 at World Juniors last season, so she could elect to do both. I know she didn't win Nationals, but she surely has the edge to be named to the World team.
 
AngieNikodinovLove said:
Meet me after school, down by the creek
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:P

I understand the USFS support though. Amber (no 3axel yet) and Lindsay (carots all season long) didn't turn out to be more reliable this season, so sending a brand new team of Isabeau, Amber and Lindsay can be a tad risky as far as retaining the 3 spots is concerned if all the Japanese, Koreans, Anastasia and Loena deliver. Supporting a veteran (Bradie) is a safer, more logical choice. Let's just hope this isn't a Rachael 2011 / Alissa 2012 situation, and let's also hope the international judges are going to be as kind to Bradie's jumps as the nationals caller has been this week.
 
DreamSkates said:
I don’t have such a keen eye for UR unless there’s snow or it’s really obvious. Which jumps were suspect?
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I'd have to look at replays, I can't remember at the moment. But I wanted to note that seeing "snow" doesn't mean necessarily URs. Snow happens from scraped landings, which could just be a wobble or slight over-rotation or being too far up on the toepick causing it to scrape on the runout even if the blade is all the way backwards. Likewise lots of URs don't cause visible ice chipping or snow on the landings.
 
bladesofgorey said:
I'd have to look at replays, I can't remember at the moment. But I wanted to note that seeing "snow" doesn't mean necessarily URs. Snow happens from scraped landings, which could just be a wobble or slight over-rotation or being too far up on the toepick causing it to scrape on the runout even if the blade is all the way backwards. Likewise lots of URs don't cause visible ice chipping or snow on the landings.
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Hook on the landing also doesn't necessarily mean UR, for the record.

By the way, could you reply here? I remember you said you were a good spinner. https://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/th...and-goe-guidelines.109669/page-2#post-6383426
 
Per Elyce Lin-Gracey, the Jr Worlds Singles Selection Camp is next week in Las Vegas.

www.instagram.com

Elyce Lin-Gracey on Instagram: "2023 Toyota U.S. Figure Skating Championships 🥉🤍🤍🤍 I’m beyond grateful to have competed in San Jose at the 2023 Toyota US Figure Skating Championships. While I didn’t have the best freeskate, I’m proud of my short pr

462 likes, 34 comments - elyce_on_ice on January 28, 2023: "2023 Toyota U.S. Figure Skating Championships 🥉🤍🤍🤍 I’m beyond grateful to have competed in San Jose at the 2023 Toyota US Figure Skating Championships. While I didn’t have the best freeskate, I’m proud of my short program performance...
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