So, the WS thing for starting orders, based on the current entries for 4C's, where there would be 12 in each of starting earlier and starting later, four groups of six, and assuming no more internationals:
5. Y. Kim
7. Lee
10. Levito
14. Schizas
21. Watanabe (one open slot)
25. Glenn
38. C. Kim (one open slot)
48. Ting
60. Tennell (one open slot)
67. Hong
68. Yoshida (two open slots)
83. Chiba (two open slots)
Draw for first two groups:
86. Frank, 104. Prasad, 112. So, 121. Vasiliev, 127. Miclette, 136. Rakhishova, 139. Cheung, 151. Levkovets, 166. Chow, 187. Farafonova, 197. Garza, 205. Dupuis
I'd forgotten than Yoshida and Chiba were competing for JPN at 4C's, not Sakamoto or Mihara. No one can catch Sakamoto with a win at 4C's. There are only three skaters who could bump Mihara -- Y. Kim and Lee, who will by finishing, and Levito (needs 269 or 11th+) -- down the WS list, but not out of the last group.. (Schizas is within 800 pts total, but she can only earn incremental points since two championship slots are already in that total.) Both Mihara and Sakamoto have an open international slot, but there's no point.
Sakamoto and Mihara not skating should make it easier for at least Glenn and Tennell to earn more WS points before Worlds.
In December RoseRed put together
a preliminary list of earned slots with skaters who had the minimums and skated in the Fall. There were 30, but without Pinzarrone, who was a ? at the time, but just placed 5th at Euros, which would make 31. Ting could also earn the missing SP minimum at 4C's; her high is 30.41. There were also two skaters with the minimums who haven't skated recently -- Urushadze since 2020-21, and Yi Zhu, because I don't think we know if CHN is sending anyone to Worlds this year. Since odd numbered fields have the +1 in the later half, I think a safe cut-off for "skating later" is 16.
So, for Worlds,
"Skating later" guaranteed, because they can't be pushed down below 16 regardless of what happens at 4C's:
Guaranteed last group: Hendrickx, Sakamoto, Mihara, Kim
Guaranteed Top 12:
- Gubanova*, Lee, Kurakova, Levito, with Lee and Levito the most likely to move into the Final group after 4C's.
- Petrokina* (can be passed by Schizas with 6th or higher, and by Watanabe with 2nd or higher, so no lower than 11th)
- Schott (can be passed by Schizas with 19th or above, Watanabe with 4th or above, so no lower than 12th)
Guaranteed Top 16:
- Schizas (can be passed by Watanabe with 8th or above, and by Glenn with a podium finish so no lower than 13th)
Fighting for Top 16:
- Glenn (can be passed by C. Kim, if Kim earns 297+ more WS points, by Ting, if Ting earns 444+ more WS points, by Tennell, if Tennell earns 642+ more WS points, Hong, if Hong earns 706+ more points, ie, Glenn doesn't finish. So in Top 16 if only three or fewer happen, and lowest is 18th if all of them happen.)
*Euros skaters with open international slots:
If they really want Gubanova in the last group, because she is only 11 points ahead of Lee and 222 ahead of Levito, they could sign her up for an international -- she has an open slot -- and see if she could pass one or both with up to 250 points.
Petrokina couldn't make it into the final group with a win at an international, and she is at no risk of falling out of the penultimate group, but you never know.
Pinzarrone is 203 points behind Glenn -- a bronze at an international would tie them if Glenn doesn't earn more, ie, doesn't finish at 4C's (every Woman at 4C's is guaranteed at least 74 for finishing.)