It's downward when you compare Lombardia to the later events, where underrotations became a bigger issue (in other words, when they really started to be called). After all, people even on FSU were raving in September about how she was going to challenge the Russians by the time Beijing came around.
Bell did have the stronger final Grand Prix showing (which was higher than Liu's score here) and then the Nationals win, and Chen had her history of aiding in the US getting three spots for two consecutive Olympics. I don't think Liu was a clear choice by any means and people would've been mad regardless of who got chosen.