U.S. Pairs 2021-22 season - News & Updates, Part X

[Sylvia]

Daniel shared this clip in early August from the beginning of their Glacier Falls FS (high 3twist & sbs 2A): https://www.instagram.com/p/CSD8dA5r3jQ/
He also posted a montage showing the progress of their triple twist under Chris Knierim's guidance from the summer: https://www.instagram.com/p/CQrsMCOFmfG/

Baram/Tioumentsev had a very impressive showing in the first pairs qualifying competition in Henderson, NV (on demand video available for Peacock Premium subscribers) with all new PB scores of 62.79 / 112.16 / 174.95 (and are not even attempting throw triples in competition yet!) - Junior Pairs final results/protocols are here: https://ijs.usfigureskating.org/leaderboard/results/2021/30105/CAT012SEG020.html
They are both accomplished singles skaters (she won the Novice silver in her group in Henderson & has all her triples through Lutz & he previously qualified for 2019 Novice Nationals) and are coming together nicely as a promising young pair -- I'm looking forward to watching their progress!

Fan Zone article on Sonia Baram/Daniel Tioumentsev who are the favorites to win Junior Pairs at Nationals (Dec. 21):

Sonia Baram and Daniel Tioumentsev Gel in First Season Together - U.S. Figure Skating Fan Zone

Concentrating on just one discipline of figure skating plus schoolwork is all-consuming. Now, imagine taking on two disciplines of skating at an elite level. That

usfigureskatingfanzone.com

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

I’m really really rooting for Audrey and Misha. I would not even mind if they became US champions now and not later

 

[Sylvia]

Withdrawn from Nationals on 12/27 - Chelsea Liu/Danny O'Shea in Senior Pairs (not surprising ) and Ashley Fletcher/Aidan Brown in Junior Pairs, replaced by Lilianna Murray/Jordan Gillette: https://twitter.com/SylviaUnseen/status/1476254035455975424

 

[Sylvia]

Polina Edmunds recently chatted with Nate Bartholomay on her podcast (Dec. 21st episode):

The Iron Butterfly: Pairs Skating and Injury (ft. Nate Bartholomay)

I chat with 2014 Olympian Nathan Bartholomay about pair skating and injuries! We discuss what a pair skater looks for in a potential partner, his injuries and surgery in his career, the mentality of going through and recovering from injuries, what motivates him to continue, and how he wants to...

bleav.com

I chat with 2014 Olympian Nathan Bartholomay about pair skating and injuries! We discuss what a pair skater looks for in a potential partner, his injuries and surgery in his career, the mentality of going through and recovering from injuries, what motivates him to continue, and how he wants to stay involved with skating and pair development in the future.

 

[Karen-W]

Withdrawn from Nationals on 12/27 - Chelsea Liu/Danny O'Shea in Senior Pairs (not surprising ) and Ashley Fletcher/Aidan Brown in Junior Pairs, replaced by Lilianna Murray/Jordan Gillette: https://twitter.com/SylviaUnseen/status/1476254035455975424

No surprise about Liu/O'Shea, sadly.

 

[shan]

It looks like Smirnova/Siianytsia have withdrawn from Nationals due to both having Covid.

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[stjeaskategym]

Knierim/Frazier are the clear front-runners. I feel strongly they already deserve a spot based on their history, their consistent scores, their great scoring potential, and USFS's Selection Procedures (K/F are the only pair in a higher Priority Grouping). Some people expect too much from a pair that has skated together only 18 months (we need to put less pressure on them), but overall they've done really well, having scored 200+ points nearly every time (it's been difficult for other US pairs to reach this number even once). On occasion they've gotten lowballed a bit for being "new", but generally have been very well received and have been the top US finisher everywhere except for one event when they kind of beat themselves. I'm really hoping they do the Team Event; it would give us our best chance. If they have issues at Nationals, they could be ironed out with a full month before the Olympics (a long time for a new pair). They have so much upside.

I think I'd give Cain/LeDuc the 2nd spot, but they competed the least of the US pairs this fall and their scores were inconsistent, so I'm still wondering about them vs Calalang/Johnson. C/J still rank higher than C/L in several areas, despite the latter having a big error on almost every jump they've ever done in international competition. When Cain/LeDuc struggled in Fall 2019 and placed 4th at '20 Nationals, they still made the 2-man World team. I don't see them having that advantage over C/J this time, but with C/J having missed several bigger competitions and the fact that it's honestly a shock when they land a jump, I lean towards C/L who aren't as strong on some of the pair elements and have jump issues of their own, but still feel like a safer choice.

I hope we don't overrate Lu/Mitrofanov, who have improved after a poor showing at Cranberry, but are the least competitive of the 4 pairs whether or not they skate clean. If you skate clean and still score lower than others can with mistakes, then the cleanliness doesn't matter as much. For instance, K/F could fall in a SP and still outscore L/M's clean program. I'm always concerned for Nationals because the GOE/PCS gets so inflated for everyone. I know US fans love a clean program, but L/M has historically done some of their best skating at Nationals and it didn't get them too far. If IJS scoring was only based on cleanliness, they could win, but you have to take into account everything else.

L/M were clean on the GP aside from one fall and still scored lower at their most recent GP than K/F did for that off-skate at Golden Spin. They're not going to get good PCS in a full field, not just because of their lack of rep, but because their LP, especially, is basic and they don't have expression. Their throws are very small (which could help their consistency but not their GOE). They're the only pair at this level not maxing out on lift base value, and their lift quality is weaker than Cain/LeDuc's. The required SP death spiral, BODS, is another built-in weakness. They don't get big GOE anywhere, even on the jumps. I wouldn't select them unless the other pairs really seem that lost.


US Pairs International Scores High to Low

Knierim/Frazier- 212.55, 205.87, 202.97, 201.69, 186.69
Cain/LeDuc- 202.79, 193.00, 189.90, 170.64
Calalang/Johnson- 197.42, 196.85, 196.69, 195.28, 191.89, 180.49
Lu/Mitrofanov- 195.32, 195.20, 190.03, 186.16, 158.81

Average international score this season

Knierim/Frazier 201.95
Calalang/Johnson 193.10
Cain/LeDuc 189.08
Lu/Mitrofanov 185.10

Median international score this season

Knierim/Frazier 202.97
Calalang/Johnson 195.98
Cain/Leduc 191.45
Lu/Mitrofanov 190.03

Median international score this year (including 2021 Worlds which is listed in the Selection Criteria)

Knierim/Frazier 202.33 (7th at Worlds)
Calalang/Johnson 195.98 (never been to a Worlds)
Lu/Mitrofanov 190.03 (never made a Worlds or 4 Continents team)
Cain/LeDuc 189.90 (9th at Worlds)

Average international score (with lowest score dropped)

Knierim/Frazier 205.77 (186.69 was dropped)
Calalang/Johnson 195.63 (180.49 was dropped)
Cain/LeDuc 195.23 (170.64 was dropped)
Lu/Mitrofanov 191.68 (158.81 was dropped)

Average international score (with highest score dropped)

Knierim/Frazier 199.31 (212.55 was dropped)
Calalang/Johnson 192.24 (197.42 was dropped)
Cain/LeDuc 184.51 (202.79 was dropped)
Lu/Mitrofanov 182.55 (195.32 dropped)

Average international score (with highest and lowest score dropped)

Knierim/Frazier 203.51
Calalang/Johnson 195.18
Cain/LeDuc 191.45
Lu/Mitrofanov 190.46

Average Grand Prix score

Knierim/Frazier 202.33
Cain/LeDuc 196.34
Lu/Mitrofanov 188.09

*Calalang/Johnson 197.42 (only competed in one GP)

Best Total Score for each US pair this season

Knierim/Frazier 212.55
Cain/LeDuc 202.79
Calalang/Johnson 197.42
Lu/Mitrofanov 195.32

LOWEST Total Score for each US pair this season

Knierim/Frazier 186.69
Calalang/Johnson 180.49
Cain/LeDuc 170.64
Lu/Mitrofanov 158.81

Best Total Scores among all US pairs

Knierim/Frazier 212.55
Knierim/Frazier 205.87
Knierim/Frazier 202.97

Best LP Scores among all US pairs

Knierim/Frazier 136.60
Knierim/Frazier 136.46
Knierim/Frazier 136.04

Best SP Scores among all US pairs

Knierim/Frazier 76.09
Cain/LeDuc 70.75
Knierim/Frazier 70.15

LOWEST SP Score for each US pair this season

Knierim/Frazier 66.37
Calalang/Johnson 61.69 (also scored a 61.74)
Lu/Mitrofanov 60.75
Cain/LeDuc 59.58 (also scored a 61.68)

LOWEST LP Score for each US pair

Knierim/Frazier 120.25
Calalang/Johnson 118.75
Cain/LeDuc 111.06
Lu/Mitrofanov 98.06

3 Best Total Scores for each US pair

Knierim/Frazier 202.97, 205.87, 212.55 = 207.13 average
Calalang/Johnson 196.69, 196.85, 197.42 = 196.99 average
Cain/LeDuc 189.90, 193.00, 202.79 = 195.23 average
Lu/Mitrofanov 190.03 195.20, 195.32 = 193.51 average

3 Most Recent Total Scores for each US pair

Knierim/Frazier 202.97, 201.69, 186.69 = 197.12 average
Cain/LeDuc 193.00, 189.90, 202.79 = 195.23 average
Calalang/Johnson 197.42, 196.85, 180.49 = 191.59 average
Lu/Mitrofanov 190.03, 186.16, 195.32 = 190.50 average

Average score from GPs & Challengers only (even though they're essentially the same thing as Sr Bs)

Knierim/Frazier 197.12
Calalang/Johnson 191.66
Lu/Mitofanov 190.50
Cain/LeDuc 189.08
___

Knierim/Frazier would give us a fighting chance at a top 6 finish (which will be challenging given how strong the field is at the top). They're also our safest choice, in that they'd likely still do well with several mistakes. Cain/LeDuc don't have the same scoring potential, but they have enough international experience where they have an edge over Calalang/Johnson and Lu/Mitrofanov right now.

 

[Karen-W]

Well, sure, any set of numbers can be skewed to make one team look less competitive than another when their first competition was 5 weeks after one of the skaters was in the hospital (briefly) due to C19.

Fact is that C/J haven't managed to skate even relatively clean (meaning at least landing their side by sides) in both phases of the competition. I'm not counting them out only because they seem to over-perform at Nationals every year comparative to their international results.

 

[yeslek]

Well, sure, any set of numbers can be skewed to make one team look less competitive than another when their first competition was 5 weeks after one of the skaters was in the hospital (briefly) due to C19.

Fact is that C/J haven't managed to skate even relatively clean (meaning at least landing their side by sides) in both phases of the competition. I'm not counting them out only because they seem to over-perform at Nationals every year comparative to their international results.

Lol those numbers weren’t skewed. They literally laid it away in a bunch of ways…

 

[olympic]

Knierim/Frazier are the clear front-runners. I feel strongly they already deserve a spot based on their history, their consistent scores, their great scoring potential, and USFS's Selection Procedures (K/F are the only pair in a higher Priority Grouping). Some people expect too much from a pair that has skated together only 18 months (we need to put less pressure on them), but overall they've done really well, having scored 200+ points nearly every time (it's been difficult for other US pairs to reach this number even once). On occasion they've gotten lowballed a bit for being "new", but generally have been very well received and have been the top US finisher everywhere except for one event when they kind of beat themselves. I'm really hoping they do the Team Event; it would give us our best chance. If they have issues at Nationals, they could be ironed out with a full month before the Olympics (a long time for a new pair). They have so much upside.

I think I'd give Cain/LeDuc the 2nd spot, but they competed the least of the US pairs this fall and their scores were inconsistent, so I'm still wondering about them vs Calalang/Johnson. C/J still rank higher than C/L in several areas, despite the latter having a big error on almost every jump they've ever done in international competition. When Cain/LeDuc struggled in Fall 2019 and placed 4th at '20 Nationals, they still made the 2-man World team. I don't see them having that advantage over C/J this time, but with C/J having missed several bigger competitions and the fact that it's honestly a shock when they land a jump, I lean towards C/L who aren't as strong on some of the pair elements and have jump issues of their own, but still feel like a safer choice.

I hope we don't overrate Lu/Mitrofanov, who have improved after a poor showing at Cranberry, but are the least competitive of the 4 pairs whether or not they skate clean. If you skate clean and still score lower than others can with mistakes, then the cleanliness doesn't matter as much. For instance, K/F could fall in a SP and still outscore L/M's clean program. I'm always concerned for Nationals because the GOE/PCS gets so inflated for everyone. I know US fans love a clean program, but L/M has historically done some of their best skating at Nationals and it didn't get them too far. If IJS scoring was only based on cleanliness, they could win, but you have to take into account everything else.

L/M were clean on the GP aside from one fall and still scored lower at their most recent GP than K/F did for that off-skate at Golden Spin. They're not going to get good PCS in a full field, not just because of their lack of rep, but because their LP, especially, is basic and they don't have expression. Their throws are very small (which could help their consistency but not their GOE). They're the only pair at this level not maxing out on lift base value, and their lift quality is weaker than Cain/LeDuc's. The required SP death spiral, BODS, is another built-in weakness. They don't get big GOE anywhere, even on the jumps. I wouldn't select them unless the other pairs really seem that lost.


US Pairs International Scores High to Low

Knierim/Frazier- 212.55, 205.87, 202.97, 201.69, 186.69
Cain/LeDuc- 202.79, 193.00, 189.90, 170.64
Calalang/Johnson- 197.42, 196.85, 196.69, 195.28, 191.89, 180.49
Lu/Mitrofanov- 195.32, 195.20, 190.03, 186.16, 158.81

Average international score this season

Knierim/Frazier 201.95
Calalang/Johnson 193.10
Cain/LeDuc 189.08
Lu/Mitrofanov 185.10

Median international score this season

Knierim/Frazier 202.97
Calalang/Johnson 195.98
Cain/Leduc 191.45
Lu/Mitrofanov 190.03

Median international score this year (including 2021 Worlds which is listed in the Selection Criteria)

Knierim/Frazier 202.33 (7th at Worlds)
Calalang/Johnson 195.98 (never been to a Worlds)
Lu/Mitrofanov 190.03 (never made a Worlds or 4 Continents team)
Cain/LeDuc 189.90 (9th at Worlds)

Average international score (with lowest score dropped)

Knierim/Frazier 205.77 (186.69 was dropped)
Calalang/Johnson 195.63 (180.49 was dropped)
Cain/LeDuc 195.23 (170.64 was dropped)
Lu/Mitrofanov 191.68 (158.81 was dropped)

Average international score (with highest score dropped)

Knierim/Frazier 199.31 (212.55 was dropped)
Calalang/Johnson 192.24 (197.42 was dropped)
Cain/LeDuc 184.51 (202.79 was dropped)
Lu/Mitrofanov 182.55 (195.32 dropped)

Average international score (with highest and lowest score dropped)

Knierim/Frazier 203.51
Calalang/Johnson 195.18
Cain/LeDuc 191.45
Lu/Mitrofanov 190.46

Average Grand Prix score

Knierim/Frazier 202.33
Cain/LeDuc 196.34
Lu/Mitrofanov 188.09

*Calalang/Johnson 197.42 (only competed in one GP)

Best Total Score for each US pair this season

Knierim/Frazier 212.55
Cain/LeDuc 202.79
Calalang/Johnson 197.42
Lu/Mitrofanov 195.32

LOWEST Total Score for each US pair this season

Knierim/Frazier 186.69
Calalang/Johnson 180.49
Cain/LeDuc 170.64
Lu/Mitrofanov 158.81

Best Total Scores among all US pairs

Knierim/Frazier 212.55
Knierim/Frazier 205.87
Knierim/Frazier 202.97

Best LP Scores among all US pairs

Knierim/Frazier 136.60
Knierim/Frazier 136.46
Knierim/Frazier 136.04

Best SP Scores among all US pairs

Knierim/Frazier 76.09
Cain/LeDuc 70.75
Knierim/Frazier 70.15

LOWEST SP Score for each US pair this season

Knierim/Frazier 66.37
Calalang/Johnson 61.69 (also scored a 61.74)
Lu/Mitrofanov 60.75
Cain/LeDuc 59.58 (also scored a 61.68)

LOWEST LP Score for each US pair

Knierim/Frazier 120.25
Calalang/Johnson 118.75
Cain/LeDuc 111.06
Lu/Mitrofanov 98.06

3 Best Total Scores for each US pair

Knierim/Frazier 202.97, 205.87, 212.55 = 207.13 average
Calalang/Johnson 196.69, 196.85, 197.42 = 196.99 average
Cain/LeDuc 189.90, 193.00, 202.79 = 195.23 average
Lu/Mitrofanov 190.03 195.20, 195.32 = 193.51 average

3 Most Recent Total Scores for each US pair

Knierim/Frazier 202.97, 201.69, 186.69 = 197.12 average
Cain/LeDuc 193.00, 189.90, 202.79 = 195.23 average
Calalang/Johnson 197.42, 196.85, 180.49 = 191.59 average
Lu/Mitrofanov 190.03, 186.16, 195.32 = 190.50 average

Average score from GPs & Challengers only (even though they're essentially the same thing as Sr Bs)

Knierim/Frazier 197.12
Calalang/Johnson 191.66
Lu/Mitofanov 190.50
Cain/LeDuc 189.08
___

Knierim/Frazier would give us a fighting chance at a top 6 finish (which will be challenging given how strong the field is at the top). They're also our safest choice, in that they'd likely still do well with several mistakes. Cain/LeDuc don't have the same scoring potential, but they have enough international experience where they have an edge over Calalang/Johnson and Lu/Mitrofanov right now.

Thanks for the breakdown. It made things easy for me to understand

 

[clairecloutier]

An update on Calalang/Johnson, heading into Nationals:

Jessica Calalang and Brian Johnson look for a bright end to a challenging season – Figure Skaters Online

 

[sk9tingfan]

Alexa Knierim got safely on her flight. Chris will follow later this week.

 

[Karen-W]

Alexa Knierim got safely on her flight. Chris will follow later this week.

??? I thought Chris left yesterday. She had an IG story of him with his luggage.

 

[Karen-W]

Mokhova/Mokhov are also listed as withdrawn on today's entry list. At this rate of attrition we might wind up with only 2 warm up groups by Thursday.

 

[sk9tingfan]

??? I thought Chris left yesterday. She had an IG story of him with his luggage.

On Twitter a couple of hours ago, she told Chris she would miss him. He responded that he would see her soon.


@alexa_knierim
·
2h

Very elderly couple on flight holding hands for take off. It’s so endearing. I love love.
@ChrisKnierim
miss you!

@SouthwestAir



@ChrisKnierim
·
2h

Love you honey!! See you soon

 

[Karen-W]

On Twitter a couple of hours ago, she told Chris she would miss him. He responded that he would see her soon.


@alexa_knierim
·
2h

Very elderly couple on flight holding hands for take off. It’s so endearing. I love love.
@ChrisKnierim
miss you!

@SouthwestAir



@ChrisKnierim
·
2h

Love you honey!! See you soon

Yeah, he is already there since he is part of the coaching team for the GPI junior pairs teams who start competing tomorrow.

 

[sk9tingfan]

Yeah, he is already there since he is part of the coaching team for the GPI junior pairs teams who start competing tomorrow.

Forgot about that.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

USA Pairs preview

U.S. Figure Skating Championships pairs' preview: bunched battle for Olympic spots

The U.S. Figure Skating Championships marks the last competition to determine the U.S. Olympic team. Two pairs' teams will be chosen to compete in Beijing.

olympics.nbcsports.com

 

[stjeaskategym]

Well, sure, any set of numbers can be skewed to make one team look less competitive than another when their first competition was 5 weeks after one of the skaters was in the hospital (briefly) due to C19.

I definitely didn't skew the numbers. I calculated and laid them out so many different ways (including dropping the lowest score). It's obviously unfortunate that Ashley had been sick, but all these skaters deal with ailments behind the scenes we sometimes never hear about. If you drop the low score for C/L, then you have to do the same for every pair. C/L felt ready and trained enough to enter Autumn Classic (they could have begun their season later if they were feeling that unprepared), so their score counts toward Olympic selection. And while their LP score there was far below their other LP scores this season, their SP score was similar to what they scored over a month later at Skate Canada.

The reason why Calalang/Johnson still had a slight advantage over Cain/LeDuc when dropping their lowest score (or looking at the Median) is because 3 of C/L's 4 scores this season are below 195, with 2 of those scores below 190. They have one 200 score that's really pulling their average up. They had some of their better skates at NHK, but also lucked out there; they were given a much higher score with mistakes than they usually get, a score that C/J have never reached, and it could end up being the deciding factor between them.

It also says they will look at "trending scores", but that would favor skaters who start the season with low scores, which isn't helpful.

Fact is that C/J haven't managed to skate even relatively clean (meaning at least landing their side by sides) in both phases of the competition. I'm not counting them out only because they seem to over-perform at Nationals every year comparative to their international results.

This is true, C/J have missed an exorbitant amount of jumps. But I mean, Olympic gold contenders like Sui/Han and Tarasova/Morozov often don't land all their SBS jumps in one competition either. And then you have pairs like Lu/Mitrofanov who land all the jumps on the GP and still lose to the 9th ranked Russian pair who fell twice. So it's not a jump contest by any means. The difference with C/J though is how extremely likely it's been for them to have big errors on all 3 jumps, or 2 of 3 jumps, in intl competition. They could land all the jumps at this Nationals, and it still wouldn't tell us anything different about what they'd do internationally. The fact that they've missed bigger competitions also doesn't help. I don't think either team has a great throw 3Lz either. But I'm leaning toward C/L over C/J.

 

[acraven]

Does anyone know whether they are actually having the FOFS breakfast? There's a problem with the USFS mailing list(s), and many people are not reciving messages.

 

[TanithandBenFan]

Does anyone know whether they are actually having the FOFS breakfast? There's a problem with the USFS mailing list(s), and many people are not reciving messages.

I haven't received any communication that it won't be held. I got an email from Brent about the live kiss and cry so I think I'm receiving all his messages.

 

[shuilee]

BREAKING NEWS!!! Knerim and Frazer have withdrawn. Positive case or injury? Not sure yet. Saw info from Jackie Wong.

 

[Mayra]

Between the Michelle Kwan baby news and this, I have skating whiplash.

 

[Wyliefan]

This season really is cursed.

 

[topaz]

Apparently, it was known earlier today. Per The Skating Lesson - Jackie Wong knew. Christine posted a lot of folks were in the club lounge at the hotel w/o masks.

 

[Karen-W]

Apparently, it was known earlier today. Per The Skating Lesson - Jackie Wong knew. Christine posted a lot of folks were in the club lounge at the hotel w/o masks.

Are you implying that it is a case of the crud? Because I'm not seeing that these two things are necessarily linked. K/F had to fly to Nashville and would have needed a negative PCR test to fly from LA.

 

[Rukia]

Are you implying that it is a case of the crud? Because I'm not seeing that these two things are necessarily linked. K/F had to fly to Nashville and would have needed a negative PCR test to fly from LA.

I think that's what DL is implying very heavily right now. Idk if he has actual sources or is just making drama.

I am hard pressed for another reason though. They looked great on practice yesterday, then didn't show up today for practice. I suppose they could have some other illness. Injury doesn't seem likely unless someone tripped over their luggage or something (not that I have injured myself that way or anything...).

 

[Wyliefan]

Apparently, it was known earlier today. Per The Skating Lesson - Jackie Wong knew. Christine posted a lot of folks were in the club lounge at the hotel w/o masks.

No, they said Jackie SHOULD have known. Why they think that, or mentioned him at all, I don't know. But who knows why that crew think anything that they think.

 

[Rukia]

Let's all focus on the fact that the Gribbles can dramatically emote their way to the top of the podium now.

 

[museksk8r]

This explains why K/F were not at the official practice today. At this rate, will there only be 1 group of pairs competing? As usual, Nationals certainly brings the drama.