U.S. Pairs 2021-22 season - News & Updates, Part X

[Willin]

I agree they had 1 bad competition I mean it happens. Some people are like really ridiculous over 1 competition they scored under 200. I get it, this was another opportunity for them to be at the top of there game. However they had a rough long program and They have had strong ones through out the season. Nationals is a few weeks away so it certainly will be an exciting event.

I found all the tracking of the groups hysterical. Because in truth is US figure skating is going to send who they want. Alexa could not show up at nationals and she gets to go to the Olympics. End of discussion


Sadly I think for Ashley and Tim that presents a problem. They could win nationals and easily be told no we don’t really like you


The judging doesn’t necessarily reflect what they put on the ice, the judging includes “we like you and we don’t like you” especially when it comes to US figure skating in pairs. ( Of course with dance the judges know the scores today. LOL.)

This is exactly how I feel. In other disciplines USFS inflates scores at Nationals, but they at least make sure the ranking reflects the results and often that reflects the order international judges see the skaters. But in pair's it feels like a club of who they like and dislike. The pairs are definitely not kept in the same pecking order by US judges as they are by international judges. The only example in any other discipline I can think of that happening is Ashley Wagner at 2018 Nationals.

Now, knowing who judges nationals, I know most of the judges aren't involved in national politics and can't be swayed to judge someone by force. But I could see the better connected judges gossiping in a way that influences a less connected judge's opinion or more soft pressure to mark someone down. For instance, judges at Nationals have performance reviews/debriefings after each segment and can have a USFS senior judge tell them a GOE or PCS mark is wrong - which could potentially be used to influence judging for the next segment.

 

[dancing_on_ice]

Score trajectories for the top 4 US pairs teams this season. Very interesting for Knierim/Frazier, who have been trending downward. Cain/LeDuc have had a pretty sharp upward trend.

 

[Karen-W]

Score trajectories for the top 4 US pairs teams this season. Very interesting for Knierim/Frazier, who have been trending downward. Cain/LeDuc have had a pretty sharp upward trend.

I wish C-G/L had another event later than NHK because it's been a good 4 weeks since they last competed. And their upward trend is sharpened by coming back from that awful ACI score where Ash was still on the mend from C19.

I think K/F look particularly bad because they had that really great score at John Nicks and then failed to deliver similar performances at their GPs.

All this really says is what we all know - US pairs is a hot mess of no clear leader, lol.

 

[VGThuy]

I think the chart actually makes K/F look much better than words do. One bad competition shows their score isn’t nearly that bad in the grand scheme of things. For the most part they’ve been hovering above every other team. Only C-G/L matched K/F‘s over 200 score one time. They may have been on an upward trajectory but they’re being sort of rewarded by fans for competing less like Mariah Bell is being in the ladies chart. Except for their one score, C/J tend to outscore C-G/L but C/J’s inability to hit 200 when they had ample opportunity given how the judges have scored them with major errors shows they’re a team who wastes opportunities and the judges won’t be so generous if they keep making mistakes as we kind of saw at Golden Spin.

 

[Karen-W]

I think the chart actually makes K/F look much better than words do. One bad competition shows their score isn’t nearly that bad in the grand scheme of things. For the most part they’ve been hovering above every other team.

True enough. They have definitely, like Alysa on the Women's chart, been above the rest of the field for the entire season.

Only C-G/L matched K/F‘s over 200 score one time. They may have been on an upward trajectory but they’re being sort of rewarded by fans for competing less like Mariah Bell is being in the ladies chart.

Well, in their defense, they were supposed to compete at Cranberry, but C19... Things were also muddled up for the USFS with their late fall Challenger assignments when it became apparent that they wouldn't be able to get any of our pairs teams to Asian Open. C-G/L made the most of the 4 assignments they received though, and finished on a high note at NHK. Fair or not, it does leave a positive impression in people's minds, which isn't the case for either K/F or C/J - and I think with both teams, Golden Spin leaves a particularly negative impression because their scores were a good 15 points off of their scores from 3 weeks ago at IdF & Warsaw Cup respectively. If K/F and C/J had dropped 6-7 points and lost by a few fractions of a point to LuMit and MetPark for gold & bronze respectively, people would be more willing to write this off.

Except for their one score, C/J tend to outscore C-G/L but C/J’s inability to hit 200 when they had ample opportunity given how the judges have scored them with major errors shows they’re a team who wastes opportunities and the judges won’t be so generous if they keep making mistakes as we kind of saw at Golden Spin.

I think that's the bigger issue for C/J - their inability to hit 200 and continuing to squander opportunities is going to, at some point, cause most judges to be less generous with their GOE and stop propping them up. I just don't even know what to think about C/J's chances of even hitting 1 of their SBS jumping passes in the SP & FS are at this point. To bring my comments from the US Selection Criteria thread over here:

Over the course of 3 Challengers & 1 GP, they've missed the 3S (either doubled, fall or UR) in 6 out of 8 programs. The 3t-2t combo in their FS has been flubbed in some way 4 out of 4 times. They were looking really strong at Cranberry and John Nicks, but whatever started going wrong at Finlandia, they've not been able to shake it since.

10 out of 12 jumping passes missed or flubbed in some way, with the 3S having a major error 75% of the time... Ehhhh... At least C-G/L manage to stand up on their SBS jumps, even if they're often called Q or UR. Maybe the tech panel will be as generous with overlooking URs from Ashley as they will be with the Women's event.

 

[chachacha]

^^^This. As disappointed as I am with K/F overall this season - their programs aren't memorable or particularly compelling, they haven't managed to skate cleanly in any competition and their twist seems to be worse than last season - they have still man, aged to put up scores that are equal to Top 5 at Worlds in all but one competition (this most recent one). I don't have a problem with them being in Group 2 and essentially guaranteed one of the Olympic spots already going into Nationals - the chance of them finishing 5th or lower is about 1%, IMO. The highest score any other US Pairs team outside the top 4 is Chan/Howe's 182.44 from Cranberry and that's still 4 points lower than K/F's Golden Spin score. Next closest are Liu/O'Shea with 177.45 at John Nicks and 175.40 at SkAm and, right now, they aren't even back on the ice so I'm not holding my breath that they'll be at Nationals.

No, the Group placements are absolutely a commitment. From the Selection Criteria document:



Mind, the Group placements are not fully and finally complete until after Nationals because skaters/teams in Groups 1 & 2 must finish Top 3/Top 5 respectively, and skaters who are not qualified into Groups based on their International scores can still qualify into Groups 3 & 4 with Top 3/Top 5 finishes respectively. But, like I said above, with regard to K/F, for all intents and purposes, they are in Group 2 because the likelihood of them finishing 6th or lower is next to nil.

Honestly, I don't really get the angst over K/F (and Vincent in the Men) being solidly in Group 2. There's less criticism of Liu being in the same Group on the Women's side even though her season's scores would put her in Group 3 if Lombardia was discounted as a massive outlier. K/F and Vincent have both demonstrated, over the course of the season, like H/D and C/B in Dance, a scoring level that is consistent with Top 5 in the World. They've earned that placement and we should be happy they are, for the most part, skating at that level.

I found all the tracking of the groups hysterical. Because in truth is US figure skating is going to send who they want. Alexa could not show up at nationals and she gets to go to the Olympics. End of discussion


Sadly I think for Ashley and Tim that presents a problem. They could win nationals and easily be told no we don’t really like you


The judging doesn’t necessarily reflect what they put on the ice, the judging includes “we like you and we don’t like you” especially when it comes to US figure skating in pairs. ( Of course with dance the judges know the scores today. LOL.

I think the chart actually makes K/F look much better than words do. One bad competition shows their score isn’t nearly that bad in the grand scheme of things. For the most part they’ve been hovering above every other team. Only C-G/L matched K/F‘s over 200 score one time. They may have been on an upward trajectory but they’re being sort of rewarded by fans for competing less like Mariah Bell is being in the ladies chart. Except for their one score, C/J tend to outscore C-G/L but C/J’s inability to hit 200 when they had ample opportunity given how the judges have scored them with major errors shows they’re a team who wastes opportunities and the judges won’t be so generous if they keep making mistakes as we kind of saw at Golden Spin.

Knierim/Frazier based on that chart have clearly broken 200 more then once! The only team to consistently break 200. Ashley and Tim have broken 200 once. I think Nationals will keep things interesting, but Alexa and Brandon, Ashley and Tim are the two teams that I anticipate will be on the USA Olympic Team. I know everyone has their Fan favorites but regardless if Alexa and Brandon had a rough Golden Spin, they have been strong at their other Competitions all season, maybe not perfect but broke 200 even with some not so perfect skates. Ashley and Tim have not been solid all season but clearly Covid played a part and although not perfect outings they broke 200.

 

[yeslek]

I have never agreed with anything more in my life. These pairs have done absolutely nothing to justify deviating from the Nats rankings this season. I mean perhaps some tinkering would happen if the Mokhov siblings won Nationals with Cooke/Bearinger winning silver. But otherwise, yea. All of our top 4 have been scoring in the 180-205 range with no real consistent "top team" here. The 2 teams we send will be duking it out with James/Radford for 7th place. Would be interesting to average them though...

ETA- counting only GP and challenger events. Left out Autumn Classic for CG/L since it was early season and they already had 3 better scores afterwards.

Knierim/Frazier= 186, 201, 202 = 589/3
196 average

Cain-Gribble/LeDuc= 193, 189, 202= 584/3
194 average

Calalang/Johnson= 196, 197, 180= 573/3
191 average

Lu/Mitrofanov = 195, 190, 186 = 571/3
190 average

Lol leaving out the worst for some teams but not others??

 

[haribobo]

Lol leaving out the worst for some teams but not others??

Haha no, I left out Autumn Classic in all 4 disciplines because it was still early days and not really indicative of where the skaters were at, anyway

 

[yeslek]

I agree they had 1 bad competition I mean it happens. Some people are like really ridiculous over 1 competition they scored under 200. I get it, this was another opportunity for them to be at the top of there game. However they had a rough long program and They have had strong ones through out the season. Nationals is a few weeks away so it certainly will be an exciting event.

Yes the criticism of them is insane. And honestly - it wasn’t that bad compared to what all the other us teams have put out. Also I was surprised by their under rotation in the short and felt like they were kind of low balled in both programs.

 

[yeslek]

I found all the tracking of the groups hysterical. Because in truth is US figure skating is going to send who they want. Alexa could not show up at nationals and she gets to go to the Olympics. End of discussion


Sadly I think for Ashley and Tim that presents a problem. They could win nationals and easily be told no we don’t really like you


The judging doesn’t necessarily reflect what they put on the ice, the judging includes “we like you and we don’t like you” especially when it comes to US figure skating in pairs. ( Of course with dance the judges know the scores today. LOL.)

No if Ashley and Timothy won they would get to go. Basically the other three teams are entering nationals tied in their race since they are all in group three. I would actually give them the edge out of group three.

 

[yeslek]

Haha no, I left out Autumn Classic in all 4 disciplines because it was still early days and not really indicative of where the skaters were at, anyway

USFS said they were including it though along with John nicks and cranberry.

 

[yeslek]

Score trajectories for the top 4 US pairs teams this season. Very interesting for Knierim/Frazier, who have been trending downward. Cain/LeDuc have had a pretty sharp upward trend.

To me this shows k/f and L/m being pretty consistent…

 

[haribobo]

As they should, absent any other data. Just in case the "clovind viruse" cut the season out halfway through. I think in the grand scheme, those early events will hold very little weight though. In the end, they all did about the same, with Lu/Mitrofanov being perhaps the strongest most recently. They should just go with the top 2 from Nationals since nobody has looked all that dominant

 

[Frau Muller]

Haha no, I left out Autumn Classic in all 4 disciplines because it was still early days and not really indicative of where the skaters were at, anyway

That’s absurd logic. So Lombardía Trophy the previous week, or US Classic that very week, do not count in your calculations? What exactly is the magical date when the season begins? The season is the season.

 

[Karen-W]

Including or excluding Cranberry, John Nicks and ACI does NOT change the groups into which ANY team has qualified. LuMit and C-G/L having one score that is below the Worlds Top 10 score just means that their MEDIAN score is one lower than it would have been but it's still well above the Worlds Top 10 threshold that qualifies both teams into Group 3. Same is true of K/F for Group 2 and the Worlds Top 5 score threshold - the one really bad score is an outlier and doesn't move their MEDIAN score below Worlds Top 5.

What including or excluding those scores does is provide one or two more or less data points for all of the teams regarding their scoring trends. In that regard, it can be considered relevant, if the USFS wants to use those scores.

 

[Karen-W]

That’s absurd logic. So Lombardía Trophy the previous week, or US Classic that very week, do not count in your calculations? What exactly is the magical date when the season begins? The season is the season.

Well, the Selection Criteria doesn't explicitly include any events except GPs, Challengers and JGPs from the fall international season. Word from the likes of Phil Hersh, at the end of September/early October, was that Cranberry, LPIDI, John Nicks and US Classic would also be included, even though the first three are NOT listed as events on the USFS International Assignments page. The problem with ACI, for Pairs specifically, is that it was not originally designated as a Challenger and was only elevated to Challenger status the week of the event when the Men's event at ACI became a domestic Canadian men only event so Canada needed to have a 3rd discipline with enough international teams - they already had Pfund/Santillan SUI, Miura/Kihara JON entered and their own teams, so the USFS said they'd send a couple teams also to help Canada out.

 

[Carolla5501]

No if Ashley and Timothy won they would get to go. Basically the other three teams are entering nationals tied in their race since they are all in group three. I would actually give them the edge out of group three.

Don’t count on it. USFS Will do what they want

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

I am a huge Alexa fan and always have been. But I’m not enjoying their programs this year. They seem very standard and I guess what Johnny Weir would say paint by numbers or skating by numbers. I think Ashley and Timothy have much more intricacy and Audrey and Mischa have consistency and strong jumps. Those are the two teams I am loving right now.

I know other people are saying why is Alexa smiling through fix you but at least she’s able to emote and have presence on the ice.

 

[olympic]

I am gutted over C/J. They are my faves and IMO have the best SS of all the US pairs right now. They really needed to stand out at Golden Spin and were given the opportunity to do so. I really wish I knew what the problem was ...

As for the others K/F have hit a plateau and I'm not a fan of their music or the way they use it. They also make inopportune mistakes on the jumps and would be in a much different place if they had landed a couple of them this past Fall, probably a GPF spot.

CG/L and L/M are at or above (L/M - way above) where I expected them to be. CG/L know choreo and use it to their advantage and can do all the big tricks on a good day. I think right now CG/L are the biggest locks for the Olympic team

 

[Willin]

I wish there were 3 spots. I firmly believe they are the best US pair's team, but they just need consistency. CG/L Aren't as good at skating skills, but their packaging suits them very well. K-F deserve to go based on their scores. It sucks only 2 teams can go.

L/M I've always seen as a team of the next cycle, so I wouldn't be too heartbroken if they don't make the team.

 

[chachacha]

I am gutted over C/J. They are my faves and IMO have the best SS of all the US pairs right now. They really needed to stand out at Golden Spin and were given the opportunity to do so. I really wish I knew what the problem was ...

As for the others K/F have hit a plateau and I'm not a fan of their music or the way they use it. They also make inopportune mistakes on the jumps and would be in a much different place if they had landed a couple of them this past Fall, probably a GPF spot.

CG/L and L/M are at or above (L/M - way above) where I expected them to be. CG/L know choreo and use it to their advantage and can do all the big tricks on a good day. I think right now CG/L are the biggest locks for the Olympic team

I think Cain/Leduc have not had a great season thus far either and barely broke 200 once and struggled with programs. You can’t blame COVID because teams not in competition form should not compete. Knierim/Frazier only scored once below 200 and although they too may have not had a stellar season they have had strong results even with some mistakes and managed to be the strongest US team last season and this season. I think Cain/Leduc and Knierim/Frazier will be the best bet for the USA Olympic Team and Knierim/Frazier assigned to the team event. Cain/Leduc have not demonstrated consistent short program scores and even with a clean long program has not scored above 131 this season. Jessica and Brian are my fave team who in my opinion have explosive pair skills but are hot and cold and as much as I want them to go, I think it would be risky for the US to assign them. I actually enjoy Knierim/Frazier’s programs but everyone has music they prefer and teams they prefer and we all have an opinion.

 

[Willin]

@chachacha It says something that CG/L haven't had a strong start to the season and are still getting scores as high as they are - I was shocked at how high their GP scores were. It was obvious they left out a lot of difficulty in their lifts and had stamina issues during their first couple outings, but each time they added something back. I think they could be back to full strength and difficulty by Nationals. ITA that even though C/J are the better team overall, they're a much riskier choice, especially if CG/L manage to get back to full difficulty and stamina.

 

[Sylvia]

Fan Zone article on Lu/Mitrofanov (Dec. 16):

With Humor and Grit, Audrey Lu and Misha Mitrofanov Strive for the Olympic Winter Games - U.S. Figure Skating Fan Zone

Like many teams, Audrey Lu and Misha Mitrofanov attribute their building success to shared skating techniques.

usfigureskatingfanzone.com

Excerpt:

"We're total opposites," Lu, 19, said with a laugh. "He helps me go with the flow, so I'm calmer at competitions."
"She is very organized, especially when it comes to schedules and travel details," Mitrofanov, 24, said. "My friends always ask me, 'When are you leaving for your competition?' And I say, 'Hang on, I have to call Audrey.'"
When the two met in 2016, both athletes were training in Dallas with the same coach, and Mitrofanov was excited that their technical timing matched almost instantly — but Lu had just switched from freestyle to pairs. It took time to adjust to throws and rely on another person to perform jumps, spins and eventually lifts.
"It was bumpy in the beginning," she said. "I was so shy and barely spoke at practices."

ETA from October 2021, ICYMI :

... I also wanted to share ... a pretty in-depth interview with Audrey Lu and Misha Mitrofanov. (As I say in my preview, don't count these two out for the Olympic team--I consider them to be very much in the mix!)

Audrey Lu and Misha Mitrofanov: Rising stars in U.S. pairs skating - Figure Skaters Online

A lot has changed for U.S. pairs skaters Audrey Lu and Misha Mitrofanov since they first teamed up in May 2016.

figureskatersonline.com

 

[Mayra]

From the article Sylvia posted...

For instance, Mitrofanov usually wears a feathered black shirt to match their free skate music to "Ancient Lands" by Ronan Hardiman. At NHK Trophy, they had just completed warm-up when Mitrofanov took off his jacket — and Lu's face immediately dropped.

"Everyone's nervous before competition, and when I got dressed, I guess I didn't look in the mirror," he said. "When I unzipped my jacket after warm-up, I realized I wore my gala costume for our free skate.

Audrey is now going to have to be in charge of making sure he is wearing the right costumes as well.

 

[Karen-W]

From the holiday shows thread:

A few videos from the US Nationals Send Off at Great Park Ice in Irvine earlier today. Everyone performed their short programs.

Knierim/Frazier - https://youtu.be/GCkbKsHulpI
Calalang/Johnson - https://youtu.be/KZrdn_WCtlU

Alexa two-footed her 3t and Jessica doubled the Salchow. C/J just looked a little off throughout the program - footwork wasn't that crisp and there was a bit of a hitch as she entered the lift and it looked like they shortened it as a result. K/F looked great apart from the minor jumping error to start - their death spiral was much improved over what we've seen in competition this fall.

Liu/O'Shea weren't listed on the program and didn't skate, per @marysy's response to my question about them in the thread. I don't suppose we'll hear for sure until either the week after Christmas or even the week of Nats whether or not they'll be able to compete.

 

[Sylvia]

KXAN News (Austin, TX) story today:

Trust, dedication and grit: Texas figure skating pair glides toward Winter Olympics dream

If two people were ever in sync, physically, emotionally and spiritually, it’d be Ashley Cain-Gribble and Timothy LeDuc of Euless, Texas.

www.kxan.com

 

[Sylvia]

Chinese state media article on Audrey Lu (Dec. 2):

American-born Chinese skater looks to Olympic debut in Beijing - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn

"Audrey has been dreaming to compete in an Olympic Games since she was a little girl," Lu's mother told Xinhua via an online interview.
"She decorated a wall of her room with the Olympic rings with ropes she made and wrote under it - 'Chase your dream.'"
...
Born to Chinese parents in Dallas, Audrey Lu, known as Lu Yao in China, started figure skating at the age of 4 on the rink of a shopping mall in her neighborhood and didn't switch to pairs skating until May 2016.

"My last time in Beijing was when I was 5 years old, and the Great Wall impressed me the most," recalled Lu, whose idol is Michelle Kwan, the most successful American-born Chinese figure skater in history.

 

[Sylvia]

Here's a NBC Sports "get to know Knierim/Frazier" fluff piece (posted by various media outlets - this is NBC Chicago):

How the Pandemic Brought These Olympic Figure Skaters Together

Alexa Knierim and Brandon Frazier are a product of the pandemic shutdown. This figure skating pair were each in search of a new partner back in the middle of March 2020. Luckily, they found instant chemistry, because they had no time to look any further, once the world shut down.

tinyurl.com

I'm glad Brandon cleared up the (my) confusion re. how & why his puppy's name changed.

 

[clairecloutier]

Chinese state media article on Audrey Lu (Dec. 2):

American-born Chinese skater looks to Olympic debut in Beijing - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn

LOL. The whole middle of that article is from my FSO interview with Audrey and Misha. (They do credit another source, just not by name.)

 

[Sylvia]

@clairecloutier's Twitter thread recapping Knierim/Frazier's pre-Nationals media call today: https://twitter.com/ClaireCloutier/status/1473353752979644423

An excerpt:

"I learned [at Golden Spin] that I needed to better prepared for all situations," Knierim said. "I've been trying to do more jump drills." She has also been practicing jumps & elements with less warmup time beforehand.
After Golden Spin, Knierim/Frazier worked on their triple twist with Chris Knierim, particularly on getting the arm feature.
"As soon as we came back from Croatia, we kind of mended our timing [on the twist], and it's been very light and a little bit effortless. I feel like it's coming together at the right time," said Knierim.