U.S. Pairs 2019-20 season - News & Updates, Part X

[casken]

Is there going to be an official explanation for the withdrawal, or is it just going to be one of those unspoken "respect their privacy" situations?

 

[Bosha]

I wonder if the family illness came about after they got to Korea. That might explain Chris’ lack of focus in the short. Maybe they thought they could compete and determined they couldn’t. Or maybe the situation was bad enough that they needed to leave quickly. I’m a huge fan of the Kneirims and hope everything is okay.
Full disclosure: when I saw the withdrawal, my first thought was, “I wonder if C/J will go to worlds in their place.“ Now I can’t remember if they were first alternates.

Sometimes illnesses can be difficult but stable and then flare up unexpectedly. That was certainly the case with my late father. It is not out of the question that the condition of a family member took a real and unexpected turn for the worse while the Ks were in Korea. It's really tough to be far away and stuck when you really, really want to be where an ill family member is hanging on.

 

[Wyliefan]

It's such a shame that the Knierims went from that euphoric result at Nationals to such a disappointing short and then a withdrawal at 4CCs. Par for the course for them, I know, but what an exhausting and demoralizing roller coaster ride (pardon my mixed metaphors).

 

[stjeaskategym]

Their whole pairs selection since the BOW argument entered the conversation is all based on "most potential" and what's "on paper" and not actually what's on ice. They cling to the flash in a pan moments and hope that somehow it becomes a norm even though time and time again it proves a disappointment. That's why the overall appearance of the US pairs program remains stagnant for so long. It's the same group of teams over and over and only includes new teams when an old team is no longer available.

Actually one of the points of looking at a skater's full body of work is to prevent the exact thing you're complaining about-- making team selections based on "flash in the pan" moments and "skate of their lives" at Nationals. The idea is to select skaters who can generate the most points internationally and not just one time at a domestic event.

In pair skating, you aim for your strong pairs to have longevity. The top pair countries send the same teams to Worlds over and over again. They aren't putting newbies in every year, and there's no turnover every 2 years like Ladies singles. Some of the top pair skaters go to the Olympics 3+ times, and you see the same teams at Worlds every season. A talented team like Peng/Jin has flourished because they keep getting sent to Worlds/Olympics repeatedly and aren't dismissed if they get a poor result like when they didn't qualify to the LP at the 2018 Olympics. Cheng Peng has missed countless jumps in competition and China never gives up on her, which ultimately makes her better. This isn't to say that selecting C/J over C/L would have been a wrong choice, but we should definitely not see longevity as a negative thing. If you don't aim for that in pairs, you're at a major disadvantage.

C/J could have scored a little higher at 4CC with what they did but didn't because they didn't have the reputation. Part of that is because they are still new but also because the USFSA have been slow to embrace them. Just look at how fast the Russian fed. embraced B/K and the difference it's made on their scores this season. C/J have been rising all season long while the Knierims remained as inconsistent as ever and C-G/L consistently underperformed. Yet the the USFSA instead of jumping on what's currently hot (and they should since as you said with everything in the dumps there is more to gain then lose by taking a chance) they still cling. Cling to the hope that the Knierims can repeat their nationals SP again and cling to the scoring potential that C-G/L have even though both have only been living up to it on ice once in a blue moon while C/J are held down simply because they are new.

It's definitely a valid argument that C/J should have been picked over C/L. But there are a lot of inaccuracies in what you wrote. I found C/J's scores at 4CC to be fair. One of the issues with inflated Nationals scores is that some people will then be confused when the skater isn't scoring nearly the same thing at an international event.

What exactly was USFS supposed to do to "embrace" C/J more and how would that affect anything? These teams create their own reputations. C/J were given 2 GP assignments after posting low international scores last season, and then didn't score very well at either of them. Boikova/Kozlovskii aren't scoring high because the Russian fed embraced them (whatever you mean by that), they're scoring high because of the quality of skating they put out on the ice. If you believe C/J have been rising all season long with consistent performances, then you haven't been following the full season. Their relatively low international scores before Nationals are likely a reason C/L were chosen instead.

You make it sound like C/J were scoring so well all season when in actuality they were 4th or 5th among US pairs in terms of scoring production. Say what you will about the Knierims' consistency, but they're a high-scoring pair for the US on a consistent basis and show a lot of scoring potential (ie. they can score over 200 points with multiple errors). Next to no top pairs in the world skate a bunch of clean programs, so that's not a fair way to gauge the merit of US pairs either. It's about who scores the most points. C/J's recent momentum over C/L across multiple events is noteworthy, but in examining it closer, neither team scored well at Skate America so it was kind of a wash. It would have been nice to see them head-to-head gain at 4CC, but unless the US uses that as part of the selection, it's a moot point. I could see both positives and negatives in having Skate Offs for the 2nd spots at 4CC. The US might want to avoid constantly putting these skaters in a pressure cooker. There should be downtime after Nationals.

This season is the best season to take the risk on a newer pair like C/J because it's a not as important as others. They can't take risks next year because that's the pre-Olympic season that decides the number of spots for the Olympics. They lost a chance to give the new team, that showed great potential all season long, valuable experience in a year where much wasn't at stake for teams that have been tested over and over with little results (yes C-G/L did excellent last season but the key word there is last. What have they done this year?). The USFSA only have themselves to blame if US pairs keep going nowhere.

Every Worlds is important and you aim for as high a result as possible. Getting a 3rd spot is extremely difficult in pairs, and you always give it your best shot, because holding on to 3 spots is easier than gaining a 3rd spot. I agree it's a good season to take a risk, and maybe that is indeed what they're doing, even if it's not the risk most people prefer. They are sending the 4th place pair who has struggled, but was one of the 2 top-scoring US pairs internationally this season (the other was K/K), which potentially gets the US in the conversation for 3 spots. Even if C/L were to do poorly there, I understand the logic in choosing them, and we're not in danger of losing the 2nd spot. Jessica/Brian can gain experience at any event, it doesn't have to be Worlds. Let them get a decent GP under their belts first. I feel like some people are overreacting a bit emotionally to their Nationals skate. They might be a stronger team than C/L and I probably would have picked them, but acting like they were seriously wronged based mostly on one Nationals skate feels off to me.

 

[stjeaskategym]

Bravo to Calalang & Johnson. Consistency is so rare for US pairs. What a mistake for USFS to have not named them for Worlds. All other teams have been so inconsistent for years. It was probably smarter to leave naming of the team til after 4CCs. With the Knierims and C&L, the second spot might be at stake again...

Having said that, I hope Knierims aren't experiencing anything super serious. I for some reason kept thinking she might have gotten pregnant.

Um, likely not. But yeah, hopefully it's not serious. It's interesting how all you have to do is skate one clean program at Nationals and suddenly you're labeled as consistent after being highly inconsistent throughout the duration of your partnership so far. C/J were not clean in either program at 4CC. I'm glad they're getting praise instead of fixating on mistakes, but we have two pairs who have outscored C/J's 4CC score multiple times this season. The US isn't going to lose the 2nd spot. They are actually more likely to gain 3 spots than lose 2. The most realistic prediction is that we could have 2 pairs in the top 10 for the first time since 2012.

Is there going to be an official explanation for the withdrawal, or is it just going to be one of those unspoken "respect their privacy" situations?

The official explanation was family illness. They don't owe the public any explanation, although of course we are all curious and some of us genuinely care about their well-being and hope it's nothing serious. I can't think of many instances of withdrawals where we heard a lot of details afterward. There are constant injuries and things that come up in elite skating, most of which we never hear about. Withdrawals from 4CC are common. I remember Duhamel/Radford withdrawing after the SP one year due to illness. The skaters just do what they have to do to be ready for Worlds.

 

[Willin]

I think the thing with the Knirems is their foot-in-mouth disease. For any other skater we accept "family illness" as a valid and believable reason both for the poor SP and the WD; for the Knirems it's hard to believe or not read into anything they say. So while they don't owe us an explanation, it easy to want one from them.

 

[casken]

I thought the family illness tweet was deleted? That's why I was asking if an official explanation has been put forward since then.

They don't owe the public any explanation

What about the USFSA? Are they owed one?

 

[Lacey]

I thought the family illness tweet was deleted? That's why I was asking if an official explanation has been put forward since then.

What about the USFSA? Are they owed one?

Yes, but I think any withdrawal is between USFS and the skater/s, and it's really none of our business.

 

[AxelAnnie]

What about the USFSA? Are they owed one?

I would certainly hope so.

 

[Wyliefan]

I think the thing with the Knirems is their foot-in-mouth disease. For any other skater we accept "family illness" as a valid and believable reason both for the poor SP and the WD

Do we? I think this is a much more cynical board than that. I can't recall the last time we accepted anything at face value.

 

[AxelAnnie]

Is there going to be an official explanation for the withdrawal, or is it just going to be one of those unspoken "respect their privacy" situations?

I bet it is going to be a "respect their privacy" situations. K/K have a lot of unexplained changes.

It is like with Meghan & Harry. The more one say's "and I am not telling you" the more interest they get.

 

[stjeaskategym]

I thought the family illness tweet was deleted? That's why I was asking if an official explanation has been put forward since then.

Maybe USFS didn't find it necessary to get specific in a tweet, but that was the reason given for withdrawing. The ISU mentions family illness in an article. There was also a Chinese pair, Tang/Yang, who withdrew before the SP but I didn't see a reason given. We don't usually hear many details on withdrawals.

What about the USFSA? Are they owed one?

I'm sure USFS is aware of why they withdrew, especially as they are the ones flying their skaters home early if they find it necessary. When I said "the public", I was referring to the internet, fans, etc, who don't need to be told why a skater is withdrawing. I don't expect skaters to tell me their medical histories, update me on dying family members, tell me about their post-Nationals hangovers/fatigue, or anything else that goes on with skaters behind the scenes. 4CCs in Asia immediately after Nationals are known for issues like this. Given the nature of the internet, I understand why skaters are reluctant to talk about what should be private matters between them and USFS.

 

[aftershocks]

I think the thing with the Knirems is their foot-in-mouth disease. For any other skater we accept "family illness" as a valid and believable reason both for the poor SP and the WD; for the Knirems it's hard to believe or not read into anything they say.

It is like with Meghan & Harry. The more one say's "and I am not telling you" the more interest they get.

Wowza the OTT, out-of-left-field, ridiculous comments in this thread keep getting weirder and weirder.

A heads up for you Axe-A and Willin, the Knierims owe us no explanations. In fact, they don't owe us anything at all.

If you're actually a U.S. pairs fan, then it's us fans who owe all the skaters our support. If you can't give any support to the Knierims, and you have no compassion or common sense to muster, please stop with the OTT snark and clueless haranguing.

 

[Marco]

C/J were not clean in either program at 4CC. I'm glad they're getting praise instead of fixating on mistakes, but we have two pairs who have outscored C/J's 4CC score multiple times this season.

C&J's 4CCs seasons best total ranks 4th amongst US pairs.

Then again, the pair with the GP medals and the pair with the highest SB didn't deliver at Nationals. The only pair who consistently delivered across Nationals and 4CCs was C&J. I wish the USFS would wait til now to make up their minds for Worlds when all top pairs were as inconsistent as they can be.

 

[aftershocks]

Castelli/Tran and Stellato/Barthalomay. Those teams heard the "retire already" message loud and clear.
I also agree that USFSA has sent messages to teams to go away (and I'm still irate about C/T).

I completely disagree. Castelli/Tran had problems from the outset in thinking they could train part-time in the U.S. and part-time in Canada. Mervin had to wait to be released which might have been problematic for them competitively at the start of their partnership. The technical miscues with their jumps became a huge problem which only grew worse as their difficulties seemingly began to get into their heads and fester. While they were a fast, stylish team with charisma, they were unable to overcome inherent problems. U.S. fed willingly supported them, and likely would have accommodated them even more had they been more reliable technically, which they clearly were not.

It was a U.S. fed official who brought Deanna & Nate together in the first place. No one sent them a 'retire already' message! Deanna is fiercely competitive, and she was clearly disappointed in her & Nate's placement in their last Nationals competition. But the reality is: Nate apparently was dealing with injury. As well, D&N over the course of a couple of seasons experienced a lot of up-and-down results and problems with pushing for more difficulty and then having to scale back after adding more difficulty led to inconsistent performances. Fans (as some fans seem to do) often negatively critiqued D&N's relationship dynamic in the kiss 'n cry after their spotty performances.

Please look past the rose-colored glasses view. Deanna & Nate were a good team and they learned a lot from each other. Their partnership apparently ended largely because of Nate's injury. Deanna's tenure with Nate was crucial in preparing her for her new promising partnership with Maxime Deschamps. I don't see any reason to blame U.S. fed, nor to lament the D&N split. U.S. officials being faced with having an embarrassment of riches in the pairs discipline leads to tough choices, but it's better than lacking strong teams who push each other.

I also agree that USFSA has sent messages to teams to go away (and I'm still irate about C/T)... The reasons they had for not supporting C/T or S/B, however stupid, don't apply with C/J.

See my above response. I'm not sure what 'stupid reasons' you are speaking of. Neither team lacked U.S. fed support.

 

[aftershocks]

I too am very excited about Calalang and Johnson and not happy about USFS decision to take Cain-Gribble and LeDuc to Worlds. To my eyes Calalang and Johnson have a superior twist, far better lifts, more reliable throws and overall more power. I too think we will see Calalang and Johnson as the US leading team going into the next Olympics. The talent is clearly there and rising rapidly...

I too am excited about Jessica & Brian. I was excited the moment I laid eyes on them at U.S. Nationals in 2019. The decision to send C-G/L to worlds has been exhaustively discussed already.

Your breakdown assessment regarding C/J vs C-G/L skills doesn't take into account the fact that both teams have unique strengths and potential. Both teams came together fairly quickly and showed tremendous progress within a short time. C-G/L are a bit more solid on their jumps and have more base value difficulty and transitions at the moment than C/J. C-G/L also have excellent lines, stretch and performance skills. In the first season of their partnership C-G/L performed gorgeous sbs layback spins, which I'd love to see them do again. Maybe it doesn't offer huge points because they've appeared to scrap that move.

In an interview, C/J noted that they have different technique on their throws, so that's an area where they've had to make adjustments, and they've been decently effective so far. However, their strongest elements are not their throws and obviously not their jumps, it's their lifts, 3-twist, death spirals, speed, SS, and chemistry.

...I hope USFS is investing just as much in them with resources like RAF and Szolkowy as they are in Cain/LeDuc. I’m sad 4CC is the last time we’ll see C & J this season. They’ve got some good momentum going...

Why wouldn't C/J be receiving investment? Of course they are receiving investment, encouragement and support. How do you think Robin Szolkowy ended up moving to California to work with Meno/Sand's crew in their new state-of-the-art rink? Szolkowy was approached by U.S. fed after a series of summer camps he and Nina Mozer held for U.S. pairs teams in the U.S. After being given a couple of job options, Szolkowy chose Meno/Sand's group in California. While Szolkowy is seemingly not part of C/J's direct coaching team, he's surely offered them tips and assistance. I don't know if Raf has been asked to work with C/J, but he's obviously a resource in that training camp.

The fact that Mozer and Szolkowy have worked with a number of U.S. pairs teams in summer camps over several off-seasons demonstrates that U.S. fed has been investing in their pairs discipline individually and collectively. It's about time, and I hope the investment continues.

 

[MacMadame]

I wish the USFS would wait til now to make up their minds for Worlds when all top pairs were as inconsistent as they can be.

I wish they'd just go with Nationals results unless there was some compelling reason not to.

 

[olympic]

I wish they'd just go with Nationals results unless there was some compelling reason not to.

I like the BOW concept, but it should be modified. The 'Nationals is everything' concept is great for once in a lifetime performances, but it far from guarantees the best US team goes to Worlds / Olympics.

 

[flyushka]

I like the BOW concept, but it should be modified. The 'Nationals is everything' concept is great for once in a lifetime performances, but it far from guarantees the best US team goes to Worlds / Olympics.

Yeah I don't know, I think the whole BOW thing is often just giving USFS the room to overthink and outsmart themselves on this. Skaters/teams that do well at Nationals are often skating well in general and just might carry that over to the next competition (see C/J at 4CC). No, we can't know that for sure because ice is slippery and I'm sure there are occasionally disasters at Worlds from "skate of their life at Nationals" skaters, but that's going to be true of skaters selected on BOW too. Imagine if BOW was used to justify someone like Galindo being left off the team (not likely, I know since he won the title, but say if someone like him with no real previous results was 2nd at Nats I guess). The guy skated great and won a medal at Worlds. Personally as someone who doesn't follow the sport that closely these days but still likes to watch Nats/Worlds, it's kind of weird and alienating as a viewer to have a skater/team selected that doesn't look as Worlds ready, it feels political rightly or wrongly and makes me feel less invested. Yeah it's a dumb argument to make that people like me who lack a ton of context about the whole season should matter, but skating is a sport that needs new viewers and people interested. It's already perceived as extremely political, how about let's make it more so. I would think the uncertainty would be rough on the skaters too. Some years they go by Nationals results, some years by something else (yes I know there's a system with "tiers" but sorry it's as clear as mud). It's also gotta be rough on a skater that does poorly at Nationals because they are going through a rough patch in training, gets sent to Worlds over a younger skater based on what they did a whole year ago, and does poorly there too. That's a lot of pressure.

But a bigger issue I see is how self-perpetuating this BOW thing is. I just don't think there's enough competitions in a season, and certainly not enough head-to-head to be able to do this. Tier 1 has this year's Nationals and last year's Worlds. Which is more important? It seems to vary year by year? How well do you have to do at Worlds for it to count? Does a first year senior skater/team have a chance? Only 2 or 3 get to go to worlds - so those selected last year have an automatic edge this year. Next year are we going to select a 2020 World team member over C/J again, since they still lack Worlds experience? You could theoretically justify holding a skater out indefinitely this way and claim the older skaters are more likely to get that 2nd/3rd spot because of their reputation/experience or where they'll skate in the SP or whatever. There was talk of doing this to Zhou in 2018 because he didn't have experience on the world stage as he was passed over for the World team when he was 2nd at Nats in 2017. That didn't happen but I'm sure Zhou could have used the 2017 Worlds experience and reputation builder for his Olympics. May as well send young skaters and let them start building their resumes if they're beating the older skaters in basically the only head to head event of the year. Otherwise when/if we find that they're still beating the older skaters next year and would like to finally send them to Worlds, we're in worse shape than if we had invested last year.

 

[Carolla5501]

My problem with the BOW is what are we getting for it. if your Nathan Chen your body of work pretty much tells me that you’re going to finish near the top and help guarantee three spots. if you’re an American pairs team the body of work pretty much tells me you could finish anywhere from 5th to 25th So I don’t see that rewarding you for your past experience is actually going to get the United States anything. So maybe we should just reward you for the way your skating at the event closest to worlds and quit caring about a year ago or 18 months ago or even six months ago until we get a team that’s consistently knocking it out of the park (see Nathan). . But if you just have a bunch of teams who are going to finish in the middle of the pack, just let the best team at the time go to Worlds. Going with the hot hand might be our best bet

 

[clairecloutier]

I think what makes the selection committee's decisions difficult is that there continues to be a lot of parity among the top U.S. pairs teams.

-- In the past 6 years, we have had 4 different U.S. champions (all of whom are still competing and in the top 5 this season).

-- On the ISU season's-best total list for pairs, our teams are currently #8, 9, 10, 12, 14, on the list. All relatively close to each other.

-- It's even closer on the season's-best free skate list, where we occupy spots #8, 9, 10, 11, 12. There are only 3.49 points total separating those 5 best free skates, indicating that our teams are pretty evenly matched in free skate potential.

-- There is a more of a difference in the short program, where CG/LD and K/K have a more clear lead over the other 3 teams.

-- In terms of average scores this season, SkatingScores.com has our teams at #8, 9, 10, 13, 15 for overall mean score. Quite close to what we see on the season's-best list.

Basically, each of our pairs has their own strengths and weaknesses. They all have had some pretty great moments and some pretty low ones too in the last few years. None has been able to consistently move ahead of the others. So that makes the selection committee's job pretty challenging (and often controversial).

The good news is that, among pairs currently slated to compete at Worlds, we are #7 and #8 according to the season's-best total list. That is actually very close to where we ideally would love to be for the purposes of getting a third slot (#6 + #7 = 13). I am not really holding out hope that we can attain 6/7--as there are other teams that will mix in there, especially Della Monica/Guarise, and others--and we do not know if the U.S. teams will perform to their season's-best. Still .... a girl can dream.

 

[Pastilage]

My problem with the BOW is what are we getting for it. if your Nathan Chen your body of work pretty much tells me that you’re going to finish near the top and help guarantee three spots. if you’re an American pairs team the body of work pretty much tells me you could finish anywhere from 5th to 25th So I don’t see that rewarding you for your past experience is actually going to get the United States anything. So maybe we should just reward you for the way your skating at the event closest to worlds and quit caring about a year ago or 18 months ago or even six months ago until we get a team that’s consistently knocking it out of the park (see Nathan). . But if you just have a bunch of teams who are going to finish in the middle of the pack, just let the best team at the time go to Worlds. Going with the hot hand might be our best bet

This is really well stated and highlights the bottom line. Quite simply they should have waited until after 4CC. USFSA should have made it easy for themselves. Now, C/J were third in FS at 4CC which makes their decision appear somewhat tenuous.
I totally get that the argument can be made to send Ashley and Tim. It’s just that as C/J are a new team the argument can also be made that maybe now they are finally hitting their stride as a team. Making that decision when they did created a real mess and, in light of recent results, reinforced for some fans that the circumstances are unfair. I suppose the bright side for C/J is that they can work in their programs early. Look what that did for S/K and S/B in ice dance!

 

[hoptoad]

I agree with Claire that the parity among the top five or so teams makes these decisions more difficult. You want to give them all a chance and yet also to have the chance to build a rep over the years with multiple appearances at Worlds.

I do think USFS has done some things well. They are putting more money and attention into pairs (though they'll never have the resources that Russia and China do).

They send out all the capable teams to multiple assignments. The teams are inconsistent, but they all get many chances to prove themselves in competition.

They don't use 4CC as a tiebreaker. Yeah, sometimes it seems like it would be good to have more data, but it's too close to Nationals and would mess with the minds and preparations of all the teams. I do like that they sometimes spread the wealth to give another team a shot at improving their their world standing championship points and getting more experience with high level events.

 

[stjeaskategym]

I wish they'd just go with Nationals results unless there was some compelling reason not to.

The situation was at least somewhat compelling. A pair had a "skate of their life" FS at Nationals after having a rougher SP. They came into the event with a career best score of 191 (which was posted at some event called Warsaw Cup in a field of Junior/unknown pairs). Their next highest total score ever was 181. They had scored as low as 166 this season. Scores like this wouldn't normally get you on a World team.

We can't predict the future and hindsight is always 20/20. If the US chose C/J over C/L, and C/J went to Worlds and put up another low score, people would say "what was the US thinking sending a pair with no good international scores to the biggest event of the year?". It wasn't an easy choice. Just because C/J ended up posting a fine 4CC score doesn't negate the fact that there was a legitimate dilemma regarding who to select.

C&J's 4CCs seasons best total ranks 4th amongst US pairs.

Then again, the pair with the GP medals and the pair with the highest SB didn't deliver at Nationals. The only pair who consistently delivered across Nationals and 4CCs was C&J. I wish the USFS would wait til now to make up their minds for Worlds when all top pairs were as inconsistent as they can be.

The US probably doesn't want to have pressure-packed Skate Offs at 4CC on the other side of the world a week after Nationals, which is understandable. Not only is it possible that those Skate Offs could be a mess, but they could also wear skaters out, which is not exactly good preparation for Worlds.

Just look at the pair event at this 4CC-- you had two teams withdraw after arriving at the event, MT/M may have been fatigued from their recent Nationals win, Lubov/Charlie were doing throw doubles... It was kind of a mess. C/J placed 4th ahead of another US pair Kayne/O'Shea with a nice score, but a beatable one. A good accomplishment for them to beat K/O again, but not much of a confirmation that we've made a bad choice picking C/L for Worlds instead.

Maybe it wouldn't have hurt to wait until after 4CC to officially name that spot. That would also help drive home the fact that World team selections aren't just based on Nationals results. When you select the team in the hours after Nationals, it's harder for people (especially casual fans who don't follow the entire season) to grasp the concept of selecting the 4th place team over 2nd place.

Perhaps C/J could have been penciled in for Worlds provisionally. Send them to 4CC, and if they scored poorly, select C/L instead, but if they post a respectable score (like they ended up doing), you could then make the spot official. Or something like that. There's no perfect solution to this. C/J may have skated worse at 4CC if there had been something on the line. We could play the 'what if' game forever.

I think what makes the selection committee's decisions difficult is that there continues to be a lot of parity among the top U.S. pairs teams.

-- In the past 6 years, we have had 4 different U.S. champions (all of whom are still competing and in the top 5 this season).

-- On the ISU season's-best total list for pairs, our teams are currently #8, 9, 10, 12, 14, on the list. All relatively close to each other.

-- It's even closer on the season's-best free skate list, where we occupy spots #8, 9, 10, 11, 12. There are only 3.49 points total separating those 5 best free skates, indicating that our teams are pretty evenly matched in free skate potential.

-- There is a more of a difference in the short program, where CG/LD and K/K have a more clear lead over the other 3 teams.

Thanks for posting actual numbers. I'm sure there are plenty of people who get so furious over team selections without even knowing what these skaters score all year.

You're right there is parity among US pairs that can make choices more difficult. I think some of the numbers make it look closer than it really is though. Our teams are so close in the rankings in part because there are so few decent pairs worldwide. Also, in pair skating, even tiny point differences can be crucial. I think of 2017 Worlds when just 4 points separated 5th-10th place. There isn't that same type of depth in the pair event nowadays, but still. I would say the US pairs definitely have different scoring potential. D/F, for example, pretty much had to be at their best to get that SB score. Certain pairs can score higher than others with bigger mistakes.

The 'Nationals is everything' concept is great for once in a lifetime performances, but it far from guarantees the best US team goes to Worlds / Olympics.

Yes, not to mention that if 'Nationals is everything', you strongly encourage your skaters to peak at Nationals and put most of their focus/energy into that one event. Ideally, you want Nationals to be a stepping stone on the road to Worlds. Most countries' Nationals are low key. China doesn't have its top pairs fighting in a heated Nationals battle every year; they can skip it and rest for 4CC. A domestic event in January isn't supposed to be the most important event of the season.

My problem with the BOW is what are we getting for it. if your Nathan Chen your body of work pretty much tells me that you’re going to finish near the top and help guarantee three spots. if you’re an American pairs team the body of work pretty much tells me you could finish anywhere from 5th to 25th So I don’t see that rewarding you for your past experience is actually going to get the United States anything. So maybe we should just reward you for the way your skating at the event closest to worlds and quit caring about a year ago or 18 months ago or even six months ago until we get a team that’s consistently knocking it out of the park (see Nathan). . But if you just have a bunch of teams who are going to finish in the middle of the pack, just let the best team at the time go to Worlds. Going with the hot hand might be our best bet.

I think US pairs should be compared to US pairs, not Nathan Chen. Based on where US pairs is at right now, if they earned 3 spots at Worlds, that would be like the equivalent of Nathan winning the world title in a runaway. Just because US pairs (or anyone else for that matter) isn't Nathan, doesn't mean you throw up your hands and say "who cares what we score, where we place, and who we send". You always try your best to select the best team you can. It was a complex choice, I can understand it from both sides.

No one sent [Stellato & Batholomay] a 'retire already' message!

I agree. They weren't sending a message, they were just looking at scores. Stellato/Batholomay likely got skipped over that year because their international scores were quite low, and Kayne/O'Shea had somewhat higher scores. K/O also failed to get a lift up at those Nationals, which could have been seen as a somewhat flukey thing.

During the prior season when S/B went to Worlds, they had yet to post one SP score in their career that would have been enough to qualify for the Worlds FS. And sure enough, they didn't qualify to the FS even with a Personal Best. I guess the point is, if you don't post good international scores, you won't get major assignments. It has nothing to do with sending skaters messages and telling them to go away.

Skaters/teams that do well at Nationals are often skating well in general and just might carry that over to the next competition (see C/J at 4CC).

We don't know what pairs are going to do from the SP to the LP, never mind at an event almost 2 months after Nationals. C/J had a rough SP and their best ever LP. When a pair skates their best at US Nationals, there's a tendency for people to think they will skate that way from now on, but that's usually not the case. The future is difficult to predict, the only thing we know for certain is what everyone has scored in the past.

Yeah I don't know, I think the whole BOW thing is often just giving USFS the room to overthink and outsmart themselves on this.

I guess the 'Body of Work' thing could cause federations to overthink team selections on occasion. But to me that's still better than not doing any thinking at all and blindly following Nationals results all of the time. Maybe in the olden days that worked when there was such limited technical content, but it's different these days.

 

[LeafOnTheWind]

I can't remember who first asked but I am begging with her for everyone to use more than 1st initials when referring to pairs and dance teams. It makes your posts unreadable for several reasons.

I've been watching skating for a long time now and first initials only can already be associated with a different team in my mind. Also I frequently read tired and sometimes I just can't remember who you are even talking about unless I have something like Cal/Joh to fall back on.

 

[aftershocks]

I agree with Claire that the parity among the top five or so teams makes these decisions more difficult.

That's also what I have been saying for pages and pages...

Plus, it should be fairly obvious that there are a number of U.S. pairs teams who have held the national championship over the past five years or so. Since 2015, the Knierims (3 times), and once each for Denney/Frazier, Kayne/O'Shea, and Cain/LeDuc. That seems to be a fair measure of these teams' talents and overall results so far.

Frankly, if Calalang/Johnson keep going as well as they have been going and as well as their talent dictates, they might well win the U.S. pairs championship next year, just as they strongly contended for the title this year! It was mainly anticipated that C/J might move onto the podium from their fifth place showing in their debut together last year, not that they would strongly contend for first place and end up winning the fp.

The below Wiki page has been updated to include U.S. pewter medalists, which is cool:

U.S. Figure Skating Championships - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[aftershocks]

Quite simply they should have waited until after 4CC.

It ain't that simple. U.S. fed has not decided that a 4CCs showdown is one of the measures by which they desire to base their assignment selection decisions, particularly with such a short turnaround to 4CCs from U.S. Nationals competition.

Plus, please note the parity among U.S. pairs teams that is obvious, and that has been pointed out a number of times in this thread, which makes selection committee decisions difficult and controversial.

ETA:

The US probably doesn't want to have pressure-packed Skate Offs at 4CC on the other side of the world a week after Nationals, which is understandable. Not only is it possible that those Skate Offs could be a mess, but they could also wear skaters out, which is not exactly good preparation for Worlds.

Thank you.

 

[Brenda_Bottems]

^^ And you're always one of the undisciplined tit-for-tat provocateurs, no surprise.

Rest assured,I provide maximum tit and minimal tat.

A heads up for you Axe-A and Willin, the Knierims owe us no explanations. In fact, they don't owe us anything at all.

Call me old-fashioned,but the US pair Champions,who haven't delivered a substantial performance on the international stage in over two years,certainly owe their public some sort of explanation.

I wish they'd just go with Nationals results unless there was some compelling reason not to.

Agreed. Why the US Figure Skating Association is pushing Cain+Leduc is beyond any comprehension. It's not like they have the natural charisma of a Shelby Lyons+Bryan Wells,for instance.

-BB

 

[aftershocks]

Call me old-fashioned,but the U.S. Pairs champions, who haven't delivered a substantial performance on the international stage in over two years...

... It's not like Cain+LeDuc have the natural charisma of a Shelby Lyons+Bryan Wells,for instance.

You're not only old-fashioned, you're blind and grouchy, albeit just for the thrill-seeking fun of "providing maximum tit."

 

[haribobo]

Brenda is amazing, the end. Great post