U.S. Ladies [#28]: Achieving 2020 Vision

[DimaToe]

You are the one who hasn't replied with anything substantive. You suggest that USFS shouldn't use the spots even though it has quite a few age-eligible skaters with the TES minimums, and I do not understand your thinking on this.

@Vagabond i never said that. Again, I said that the U.S.does not have the talent currently to make use of those 3 Junior spots. I didn’t say they should not use them. I said they don’t have (aside from Liu) any actual contenders.

 

[Vagabond]

@Vagabond i never said that. Again, I said that the U.S.does not have the talent currently to make use of those 3 Junior spots. I didn’t say they should not use them. I said they don’t have (aside from Liu) any actual contenders.

What you said was that it "seems like the U.S. has more entries than needed."

I thought you actually meant what you said. My mistake.

 

[Debbie S]

Medaling isn't the only reason to send skaters to int'l events. JW is essentially a developmental event anyway. Competing at a top Junior event, regardless of placement, will prepare skaters for top Senior events in the future. And even looking at it just in the context of JW, just b/c a skater doesn't medal this year, doesn't mean they won't medal at a future JW - getting experience helps skaters prepare for the next big event.

As for Amber, I'm not sure how "strong" USFS would consider her GP placements. 6/7 out of 12 at a GP isn't that significant for a U.S. lady. She didn't beat anyone who could realistically be top 10 at Worlds. Yes, she was 3rd in the SP at CoC, and then bombed the FS, landing only 2 clean triples (3 were <). A skate like that at Worlds might not even put her in the top 15, much less top 10. I wouldn't expect her to make the World team but 4CC is a realistic goal. But she will absolutely need to be the 3rd age-eligible lady at Nats - USFS isn't going to pass over anyone to put her on the team.

 

[Dobre]

I think the other 2 US skaters will be capable of top 10 but its not assured by any means. Using the SB scores of likely competitors (with admittedy some being senior events), you end up with a top ten of Valieva, Sinitsyna, Alysa, Haein, Kurakova, Usacheva, Seoyeong Wi, Starr, Tomoe, and Tornaghi (SB 175). The next highest SB after Starr (excluding Ting) is Izzo at 169. Other factors include Kawabe (163), Ruiter (159), Urushadze (158), Kiibus (166), Levushkina (161).

As Korea only has two spot at Senior Worlds, I think Korea's berths for Junior Worlds could be very hard fought. If either Yelim or Young do not qualify top 2 for seniors, I think there are good odds either might return to Junior Worlds. Which is not to say that the top two qualifiers couldn't be Haein & Wi. It will come down to Nationals.

 

[Dobre]

Again, I said that the U.S.does not have the talent currently to make use of those 3 Junior spots.

Of course they will make use of them. There are plenty of U.S. athletes who will be able to use the berths and gain experience.

Now, if by "make use" you mean, three U.S. junior ladies with the potential to finish top 10, I guess I would answer that it is not impossible. It is very hard to make that top ten. But at their best, I do think Alysa, Hanna, and Starr could all potentially do so. (I haven't seen Emily so I will plead ignorance there). I realize that Starr has already moved up, but I always thought it would have been good for her to attend a second Junior Worlds and it could definitely help with her ability to make the GP next season so I think it is pretty wise of both her & USFS to be open to the possibility.

In any case, I will say this. 1. There are flaws in using last season's results in order to qualify athletes for the following season. 2. It is very clear to me that Korea has three age-eligible junior athletes that could fight for top ten berths this season and it really stinks that they don't have them. 3. It is not at all clear to me that Japan had more need for the JGP spots they earned than Korea did, but those are the breaks.

This is the system, and we all wait to see what really happens at Nationals & the big event at the end of the junior season.

 

[kalle]

This really would be a good time for Courtney Hicks to skate well at nationals. Shake things up.

This is exactly what I hope will happen!
Hicks was always pretty well scored when skating semi cleanish on an international level so I think she could be a dark horse for a 3-4 finish IF she manage to skate well.
I really wish the outcome with Hicks will be different from another talented but retired skater Angela Wang. I thought both these ladies had the talent to be Senior National champions one day and I am still not over that Angela retired
It would be wonderful if an injury free Hicks manage to skate up to her potential

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Courtney shaking things up is about as likely as me putting this bag of peanut butter cups down

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

I mean outside of Bradie and Mariah it’s not like there’s that much to choose from at the moment. I just stick with Amber.

Karen is no longer inconsistent. she’s just consistent for poor performances. And she looks majorly unhappy. Don’t know if it’s true or not, it’s just the feelings she gives me when she skates.

Ting injured. Hannah i’m assuming the same. Both are MIA all season

Starr not much or any improvement in technique

Alysa superstar not eligible.

Gracie, not there yet

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Is there a prediction thread yet?

Mine...

1 Alysa
2 Bradie
3 Mariah
4 Amber
5 crickets. maybe we can get Tonia Kwiatkowski in?

 

[Dobre]

Hannah i’m assuming the same. Both are MIA all season

Hanna (no second "h") competed the summer club season and her first JGP. She has been injured since then, but she is assigned to the Youth Olympics in January. Fingers crossed this means she is back healthy.

Karen is no longer inconsistent. she’s just consistent for poor performances.

Karen has had many lovely SP performances this season. She is struggling with her LP, but this is still miles from where she was when we saw her skate injured last season. I'm really proud of her for coming back from that difficulty.

Starr not much or any improvement in technique

Starr's SB is @ 5 points behind Amber's. She has a 5th & an 8th on the GP, two 5ths on the CS, and a 2nd in junior ladies at Golden Spin.

Amber has a 6th & 7th on the GP and one 3rd on the CS. Amber is having a better season than she had last year. I think we can be happy for her improvement without dismissing her very real competition.

 

[Wyliefan]

Hanna was injured but is said to be better now. I'm just happy she's able to be at Nationals at all. I'd love another high placement for her, but I have to admit it's not likely after having been out all season.

ETA: Sorry, @Dobre, looks like we simulposted.

 

[Coco]

If injuries are an issue for Hanna, I wonder how advisable it is to do both Youth Olympic Games and then U.S. Nationals just a short time later.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Hanna (no second "h") competed the summer club season and her first JGP. She has been injured since then, but she is assigned to the Youth Olympics in January. Fingers crossed this means she is back healthy.

I know Toots, I’m using voice texting on my cell phone which I normally don’t do. Just trying to multitask here my love.

And I am aware of her performance back in the summertime but when I say MIA I mean Since any major competitions have started. Me being aware of the youth Olympics is like me being aware of the South Bend, Indiana championships.

Yes I’m well aware of Starr being right behind Amber as far as comparable scores this season but I still stick with Amber. Amber has tons more power and interprets her music more.

And don’t put words in my mouth. I’m not dismissing her competition I’m just saying I think Amber is going to fare better than Starr. I saw more improvements in the last year in Amber than I did in her. Just because I say I liked an apple more than an orange does not mean I’m dismissive of the orange.

As far as Karen she always looks like she wants to complain about something I just can’t get into her skating anymore because she does not radiate any joy. Sure she has some stunning positions but she always looks unhappy. For too long she’s looked unhappy and disappointed so I’ve checked out as well now.

 

[Tinami Amori]

If injuries are an issue for Hanna, I wonder how advisable it is to do both Youth Olympic Games and then U.S. Nationals just a short time later.

Hanna is only 16.... I am sure it will be a snap for her to do YOG, USN and 2 more events... life is short. do it all.

 

[Theoreticalgirl]

Karen Crouse filed an update to her Jan 2019 story on Gracie:

Gracie Gold Embraces a Rugged Comeback Path (Published 2019)

To rebuild her figure skating career after a reckoning with mental health struggles, the Olympian has focused on redefining what success means.

www.nytimes.com

Original article:

Gracie Gold’s Battle for Olympic Glory Ended in a Fight to Save Herself (Published 2019)

Gold appeared to be a gold medal favorite in figure skating for the 2018 Winter Games. Then her mental health unraveled, and a cry for help became her boldest move.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Jayar]

I never do the math stuff, but hypothetically if Gracie make the following improvements:

SP
Hits 3lz-3t
Upgrades spins to L4
Upgrades PCS to 8.0
New SP score (based on Sectionals): 69.76 (5th place from last year's nationals)

FS
Hits 3lz-3t
Does 3f instead of 3l-2t
Does 2A-3t instead of 2F
Updates spins to L4
Upgrades PCS to 8.0
New FS score (based on Sectionals): 128.58

She could earn 198.34 in Greensboro

Realistically I think that we can count on her PCS going up, her spins getting their levels, and perhaps 3lz-2t in both programs. That would put her at about 190 points, which was 6th last season. I am not advocating that we should expect a resurgence so quickly, but with this field, she really could place in the top 6. I think top 10 is going to be achievable, which would get her some assignments in the fall.

 

[Jarrett]

I don't see Gracie's PCS going up unless her actual skating drastically improves. Her sectionals performance was very labored. I think Gracie in top 6 this year is near impossible. Nevermind everyone seems injured.

 

[alchemy void]

Courtney shaking things up is about as likely as me putting this bag of peanut butter cups down

I still believe!

 

[DimaToe]

I don't see Gracie's PCS going up unless her actual skating drastically improves. Her sectionals performance was very labored. I think Gracie in top 6 this year is near impossible. Nevermind everyone seems injured.

I agree, being top 10 would be an accomplishment and a very good one at that

 

[olympic]

I still believe!

Courtney was one of those skaters with a huge window of opportunity for many years that never seized on it. The power and size of her jumps [3F-3L] and certain moments of choreography put her in positions to medal on the GP and come close to the US team, but she was really unfocused at times, and I'm not sure why or what she could have done to learn to check her landings. But, it seems like it should have been priority #1. Her jumps were Ito / Harding-esque.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

^^ Agreed Olympic... and it didnt / doesn't matter whom she goes to for coaching her nemesis (uncontrolled jumps) has never been fixed. There has never been an overhaul or a new beginning to her skating.

 

[Sylvia]

Some clips from Courtney Hick's IG:

3F with Yaroslav Paniot:

Login • Instagram

Welcome back to Instagram. Sign in to check out what your friends, family & interests have been capturing & sharing around the world.

www.instagram.com

3F+3Lo:

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Welcome back to Instagram. Sign in to check out what your friends, family & interests have been capturing & sharing around the world.

www.instagram.com

"It's been almost a year since I tried to do a triple toe loop because my knee wasn't stable, but I finally got it again today!" (Nov. 20, 2019):

Login • Instagram

Welcome back to Instagram. Sign in to check out what your friends, family & interests have been capturing & sharing around the world.

www.instagram.com

 

[Jayar]

I don't see Gracie's PCS going up unless her actual skating drastically improves. Her sectionals performance was very labored. I think Gracie in top 6 this year is near impossible. Nevermind everyone seems injured.

PCS always go up at the US Championships-- unless the skater underperforms. 8s are definitely within the realm of possibility for Gracie.

 

[AxelAnnie]

PCS always go up at the US Championships-- unless the skater underperforms. 8s are definitely within the realm of possibility for Gracie.

True. However with Gracie it could get tricky. Everyone will want to be mega supportive of her and her struggle. We shall see if that translates to abnormal inflation of her PCS. I would think the judges would want to be super careful with their judging and PCS. Too high........could be seen as rewarding her courage. To low could be seen as not giving her credit for what she has been through.

The judging is picked apart all the time for ulterior motives and agendas.

 

[Sylvia]

(I originally posted this is the 2020 U.S. Nationals forum; cross-posting here now for @A.H.Black & others who might be interested but don't have access.)

The Olympic Channel did a feature on Noelle Rosa, now 16, who skates in Salt Lake City:

Figure skater Noelle Rosa hopes to go right to the top

The Utah youngster has a different life to most 15-year-olds. But she's happy to make sacrifices as she dreams of competing at the Winter Olympics.

www.olympicchannel.com

Also can be watched on Twitter:

Lausanne 2020 ❄️ Winter Youth Olympic Games 🥇🥈🥉 on Twitter

“The road to become an Olympian means a lot of sacrifices but also an incredible feeling of adrenaline and pride to represent one's nation. Discover the life of young figure skater Noelle Rosa 🇺🇸⛸️💃 @OlympicChannel @TeamUSA @ISU_Figure @USFigureSkating https://t.co/zSJeaFqstO”

twitter.com

She won't be competing at Youth Olympics, but she did qualify (by placing 3rd at the Pacific Coast Sectional Singles Final) to compete in Junior Ladies in Greensboro. This will be her 4th consecutive trip to Nationals: Intermediate in 2017, Novice in 2018 & Junior last year.

 

[Sylvia]

Just noticed on USFS' International Assignments page that Hanna Harrell has WD from the Youth Olympics; Kate Wang, age 14, has replaced her: https://www.usfsa.org/story.aspx?id=84032&menu=TeamUSA

 

[kwanfan1818]

Courtney was one of those skaters with a huge window of opportunity for many years that never seized on it.

The few times I've seen her live, she had sustained speed and excellent knee action and glide, as good or better than many championship medallists. I thought she was woefully underscored in SS.

 

[Karen-W]

Just noticed on USFS' International Assignments page that Hanna Harrell has WD from the Youth Olympics; Kate Wang, age 14, has replaced her: https://www.usfsa.org/story.aspx?id=84032&menu=TeamUSA

Great opportunity for Wang but disappointing for Harrel. My guess is we won't see her at Nationals in a few weeks.

 

[Jammers]

Without two of the girls who finished in the top 5 last year the field is looking real weak now. Guess this means another year in Juniors for Hanna. I figured she would be moving up next season but who knows now.

 

[Wyliefan]

Could it be that Hanna just wanted to get ready for Nationals without distractions? I hope that's all it is.