U.S. Ladies [#19]: Do You Know the Way to San Jose?

[Frida80]

Way too rational... I hope we get videos from the Japan Open quickly!

I came in this thread thinking, "Wow, Karen and Ashley competed this weekend! Cool! Let's talk about it...."

https://i1.wp.com/gifrific.com/wp-c...alks-Into-Fire-With-Pizza-Community.gif?ssl=1

 

[AxelAnnie]

I love how one small competition already has the doom and gloom "they have no chance" crowd out for both skaters, not to mention "FAN WARS!!!! for both sides. Ashley....UUUUUUUUUSE the FORCE and put in some new choreography!!!!!

It's frickin' October, folks. This was basically an exercise for both of them (especially Ashley). A lot can happen in the next few months. Can we keep the hand wringing to at least a reasonable level until the GP starts?

Good grief!

I have never understood this mentality. If you are going to a competition.....best to be prepared to win. Otherwise................ Canadian and Russian girls don't go in with a plan to skate less than their best. Look at Nathan.

This is an OLY year..........for heaven sake.

 

[toddlj]

I have never understood this mentality. If you are going to a competition.....best to be prepared to win. Otherwise................ Canadian and Russian girls don't go in with a plan to skate less than their best. Look at Nathan.

This is an OLY year..........for heaven sake.

Ummm... FYI... Ashley DID win the competition.

 

[AxelAnnie]

Yep. But there was the same talk about it is early in the season and she skated like she always does in Oct. Blah blah blah .

She needs to slam bam thank you ma'am to have enough momentum to carry her. Not two footed landings, yes etc. Those those things could have and should have been addressed. And fixed.

 

[Frida80]

Yep. But there was the same talk about it is early in the season and she skated like she always does in Oct. Blah blah blah .

She needs to slam bam thank you ma'am to have enough momentum to carry her. Not two footed landings, yes etc. Those those things could have and should have been addressed. And fixed.

It's not realistic for skaters to be perfect at the beginning of the season. Yuzuru just bombed his FS a few weeks ago and he's consider the GOAT. It takes multiple competitions for skaters to work the kinks out of their programs. They also can get fatigued early, so they like to start slower and peak at later times. For everyone, it's the OG. So I expect most skaters to have issues in October and some great skates at nationals. Because when that Olympic pressure kicks in, it's going to be brutal.

 

[RockTheTassel]

I see the Karen Chen detractors are out in full force trying to elevate and buildup their own skater by way of talking down another.

I love Karen, but there is nothing wrong with reasonable criticism. Ashley, Gracie, Mirai, ect. have all had their fair share of it in this thread and elsewhere. If anything, it's sort of a good sign. People likely critique Karen more because they consider her one of the big guns now and have higher expectations.

 

[vesperholly]

CoR: Mirai and Mariah - there's Evgenia, Wakaba, Elena R., Carolina - maybe Mirai could get a bronze. I doubt either of them will beat Wakaba and we know Medvedeva's untouchable.

SC: Karen and Ashley - there's Kaetlyn, Maria S., Anna P., Marin - one of the US ladies could get bronze. I'd be surprised to see either beat Kaetlyn, especially at home, and Marin did just beat both of them in the States. Maria didn't look that great at test skates, but that's very early, so we'll see after Finlandia and who knows where Anna's at. Karen and Ashley could also lose to all four of them.

CoC: Gracie Gold - there's Gabby Daleman, Alina Z, Elena, Mai, Marin, Wakaba - even if Gracie does end up competing, that's a super deep field.

NHK: Mirai and Mariah - there's Satoko, Evgenia, Carolina, Polina T. - again bronze is possible, maybe even silver, just because behind Evgenia those ladies have question marks do to injury or lower tech, but again they could all beat Mirai and Mariah.

IdF: Gracie and Polina E. - there's Kaetlyn, Alina, Mai and Maria - we don't know how Polina's going to look after her injury, but even if she's progressing well, that's a strong group.

SA: Karen, Ashley, Bradie - Gabby, Polina T., Satoko, Anna - one of the US ladies could medal - I think Gabby will be on the podium. Satoko or Polina T. have the talent, just injury question marks. If Anna's on I think she'll beat the US girls too, but who knows.

I think Kostner isn't that much of a contender, TBH. She's a big name but TES has surpassed her since 2014. She'll do well in the short with only 3 jumps, but she'll drop in the FS because her TES is a good 20-25 points behind the top ladies. She's not attempting a lutz and only has 6 triples planned.

 

[RoseRed]

I think Kostner isn't that much of a contender, TBH. She's a big name but TES has surpassed her since 2014. She'll do well in the short with only 3 jumps, but she'll drop in the FS because her TES is a good 20-25 points behind the top ladies. She's not attempting a lutz and only has 6 triples planned.

And if Mirai and Mariah skate well and clean, they'll beat her. But she's going to get the PCS scores, so even if Mirai lands the 3A, if she gets several URs Carolina could still beat her.

 

[Jammers]

I have never understood this mentality. If you are going to a competition.....best to be prepared to win. Otherwise................ Canadian and Russian girls don't go in with a plan to skate less than their best. Look at Nathan.

This is an OLY year..........for heaven sake.

I love how suddenly the Canadian girls are so consistent and dominant even though Daleman has never even won a GP medal of any kind and Osmond is prone to struggle in the LP. But i guess they are both Yuna now as competitors.

 

[topaz]

I saw some spins variations and slight changes in the step sequence. I did think she looked slow and didn't see really "plugged" in. I would have preferred her to bring back black swan if she was going to recycle a program.

I had mentioned I was not happy with the lala land choice.

I wonder how people's feelings about Ashley bringing her program back are shaping their perception of the YouTube video that was posted. I did see a few tweaks and the steps are different as well. And hey! At least you finished on the music this time!

As for Karen, I'm disappointed with her program choices over the last two years. Karen is fiesty and has very good musicality. One of my issues with Tammi Gambil is that I believe her skaters use programs that are "dated". It's almost like her programs are "dumbed" down for her. She's a better skater and performer than the programs we've seen from her over the last two years.

 

[Lanie]

Black Swan was such a good vehicle for Ashley. I like it more than MR, and I saw MR live at Boston and I can tell you what struck me there--I think it was the first time seeing Ashley in person--was the energy and fire she brought to her skating like nobody else. If she can tap into that, MR could be wonderful for her again but I just think she's capable of so much more than recycling programs year after year. (I loved her Muse LP last season for example.)

 

[DimaToe]

I love how suddenly the Canadian girls are so consistent and dominant even though Daleman has never even won a GP medal of any kind and Osmond is prone to struggle in the LP. But i guess they are both Yuna now as competitors.

Both Osmond and Daleman, when on have big, beautiful jumps that are fully rotated. Osmond also has really good skating skills and presents her programs quite well. Daleman isn’t on par with skating skills yet but still at the level of Wagner and Chen, But again she rotates those triples. Nobody is claiming that they’re these consistent machines, but as it is now they have more positives to their skating than our U.S. ladies, which while lovely (Wagner is my favorite skater currently competing) their jumps, skating skills, and intricacy of choreography isn’t at the very top of what the sport has to offer.

 

[Jarrett]

I finally went back and watched Ashley's program in comparison to this last comp and the changes that were made feel like changes just to defend reusing the program. They don't actually add anything. In one part she adds a second long spread eagle and then the next she remove a 360 turn that was way more effective with the mood and music and replaces it with a arm wave. I dunno, if she is just going to reuse the music she should just do the same program and do it perfectly with better spins and she will get the marks. All these people says that reusing a programs doesn't work never saw Oksana or Viktor win the Olympics. Yea I am disappointed to not see new programs but MR wasn't some dog.

 

[Coco]

Black Swan was a great program for Ashley at that time in 2012. But watching it now and comparing it, even to last year's program, she's come so far as a skater, she would have to completely gut back Black Swan and rearrange all the elements to come close to equaling the scoring potential hat she's got with Moulin Rouge.

I think everyone just loves the Black Swan program because of the awesome spiral.

I do wish she'd bring back the spread eagle into Triple Loop as well as her split Falling Leaf

 

[Frida80]

Ashley says that her BS program no longer meets Current IJS rules. I assume that means that it would be too much trouble to replace her awesome spiral sequence with a choreographic sequence and change the jumps to max her score. I'm not sure where her 3Lo+1/2Lo+3S could go. With MR it hits the notes perfectly.

I personally fell in love with Ashley because of her BS program. Buy with Kaetlyn doing one as well, it may be too much. Then again she's already taking heat for doing MR for a third time....

 

[Willin]

I also think that Ashley's Black Swan program was much better for where she was in her career then - more the dark horse come back girl who was often overshadowed as opposed to one of the top US ladies. It was one of those programs that made everyone realize that she wasn't going to be one of those "also rans." I remember the huge turnaround in the way the announcers treated her at the beginning of that season and at the end.
Now the Moulin Rouge program (while repetitive) makes her stand out because it shows off her maturity and performance ability beyond what a lot of her much younger competitors are doing. I wish she could've found some other piece to show that off, but if it's what she feels comfortable with, go for it. There's a lot of viewers in the US who only watch figure skating during the Olympics and therefore have never seen the Moulin Rouge program before. I think we're just complaining because we're all skating ubers who have seen it 100 times - those who haven't will probably enjoy it quite a bit.

As for Karen's programs - I think they're feisty and play to her strengths as a competitor. On the other hand, her SP last year was also lovely, so tango is not the only thing she can pull off. My problem is that she's not showing variety between the SP and FP. I love it when I can see two different types of programs. Even if they're both classical, a change in tempo or style of music (ie. a waltz SP and a tango FP) is always nice so we can see more range from a skater. Even Ashley, who like Karen is skating to her strengths with sassy programs, is doing two styles of sassy - latin ballroom and musical soundtrack. There are ways to do it and I wish Karen would have with her programs this year. Maybe in the future if Tammy Gambill gets less set on having her skaters use warhorses?

 

[wouldacoulda]

Personally, I'd prefer a new version of Black Swan to a tweaked MR. I was hoping for more this season.

 

[wouldacoulda]

Thanks for this info, I was wondering why both Karen & Ashley looked slower than usual, maybe that explains it.

This wasn't really a great outing for either of them, but let's see what happens once the GP starts.

I guess that's the risk one runs when skating in a local comp rather than a Challenger Series event. It's unfortunate that we weren't able to compare apples to apples.

 

[wouldacoulda]

Don't forget the glitter!

No sparkles allowed. There must be a deduction for that, right?

 

[chapis]

Considering that two of the olympic medal contenders are skating Black swan, I think it was a good thing that Ashley did not chose it.

 

[jlai]

Both Osmond and Daleman, when on have big, beautiful jumps that are fully rotated. Osmond also has really good skating skills and presents her programs quite well. Daleman isn’t on par with skating skills yet but still at the level of Wagner and Chen, But again she rotates those triples.

I find your assessment of the skating skills rather intriguing. I would never have thought Wagner and Chen are on the same level. In fact I always thought Wagner is one of the weaker US ladies in the ss dept.

 

[artsciboy]

I find your assessment of the skating skills rather intriguing. I would never have thought Wagner and Chen are on the same level. In fact I always thought Wagner is one of the weaker US ladies in the ss dept.

Maybe Wagner circa 2008 had weaker skating skills. Wagner post-John Nicks has skating skills that are more than in line with other top skaters (internationally or nationally).

 

[kwanatic]

I find your assessment of the skating skills rather intriguing. I would never have thought Wagner and Chen are on the same level. In fact I always thought Wagner is one of the weaker US ladies in the ss dept.

I agree with that. IMO Karen has much better skating skills than Ashley. Ashley's skating skills improved somewhat (especially during the 2015-2016 season) but overall, Karen is stronger.

Karen actually uses her edges whereas Ashley doesn't have nearly as much lean on her blade. She gets down into the ice with her stroking; Ashley's is a bit shallow.

Karen has excellent speed and acceleration whereas Ashley can get good speed but it's not with the same ease as Karen and takes many more crossovers.

Karen also has much better control over her blade which is why her step sequences carry across the ice with speed and ease. Again, she uses her edges. At times Ashley's step sequences look a bit slow and careful and she doesn't have the same edge quality Karen has.

I love Ashley to pieces...but in a head-to-head match if Karen were to deliver her jumps, she'd easily outscore Ashley and rightfully so. Ashley is the more engaging performer IMO but Karen isn't a slouch in that area either. Everything else though (speed, skating skills, spins, footwork) goes to Karen. If she can find some consistency Karen would be the most talented skater the U.S. has right now...but that's a big IF...

 

[chapis]

Karen actually uses her edges whereas Ashley doesn't have nearly as much lean on her blade. She gets down into the ice with her stroking; Ashley's is a bit shallow.

I agree, although look at this photo https://www.instagram.com/p/BSKxdQrgktQ/?taken-by=ashwagner2010, but she said it, sometimes.

 

[kwanatic]

Touche.

Of course I was referring more to her inbetweens rather than her sustained moves...but that is a nice spread eagle.

I definitely think Ashley is good in skating skills (a solid 8.00-8.25) but there are quite a few top tier level skaters who can beat her in that mark.

 

[ChiquitaBanana]

I have never understood this mentality. If you are going to a competition.....best to be prepared to win. Otherwise................ Canadian and Russian girls don't go in with a plan to skate less than their best. Look at Nathan.

This is an OLY year..........for heaven sake.

There is a concept called periodization where the focus is not always on best at the top but rather to get there at the right time. Novody can be totally 100% all the time. These little competitions are preparatory competitions which have usually one goal : testing your new stuff, seeing what works and not under pressure. It's all about adjustment, adjustment, adjustment so they find the right balance to peak when the big competitons are there.

 

[leafygreens]

I have never understood this mentality. If you are going to a competition.....best to be prepared to win. Otherwise................ Canadian and Russian girls don't go in with a plan to skate less than their best. Look at Nathan.

This is an OLY year..........for heaven sake.

I understand what you are saying. She should be skating to win against the best of the best at all times leading up to the Olympics. The Oly judges are not going to care that Ashley won a club comp.

I love how suddenly the Canadian girls are so consistent and dominant even though Daleman has never even won a GP medal of any kind and Osmond is prone to struggle in the LP. But i guess they are both Yuna now as competitors.

Years past medals do not equal now. All of Ashley's GP medals don't matter as much as that the Canadians won world medals this year.

There is a concept called periodization where the focus is not always on best at the top but rather to get there at the right time.

Medvedeva and Zagitova must not do periodization because they are on fire right out of the gate. Honestly Mirai seems to already be as well. It seems to be becoming a more dated theory that you must save your best only for the big show.

 

[VGThuy]

Some skaters need to pace themselves to peak for the top competition of the season while others seem to be able to continually hit the events all season long with proper rest periods, of course. I do think age and wear/tear have a lot to do it with it (look at Kwan circa 1995-1996 where she was nearly undefeated all season long doing 3 GP events, Nationals, went on a short tour, Centennial on Ice, GPF, and then Worlds with some pro-ams and then look at Kwan post-2002).

That said, I do agree that I sort of miss the American skaters who one didn't doubt that wanted to hit every competition and dominate. I do understand that pacing, timing, and strategizing is important, but what I don't like is the way some fans dismiss certain competitions as "well, it doesn't matter because she has a strategy" like with what happened to Wagner at Nationals when some fans said how Nationals didn't matter and that Ashley didn't care about it anymore and she's planning on hitting at Worlds. I do think competitions like Nationals matter and I'm sure Wagner did care that she didn't win the title and skated the way she did no matter how much she wants to peak for Worlds.

 

[kwanfan1818]

Medvedeva and Zagitova must not do periodization because they are on fire right out of the gate. Honestly Mirai seems to already be as well. It seems to be becoming a more dated theory that you must save your best only for the big show.

Medvedeva struggled in an early comp, but she and Zagitova, who is trying to strike while the iron is hot, and like the Japanese Ladies, have at least five competitors in their own countries simply to get spots, and their Federations are watching closely. Tutberidze's women are also trained more intensely, and they have the teenaged knees to withstand that training, so that even when they aren't spot on, they have a lot in the tank.

It's not surprising that Nagasu and Zakrajsek are trying to make her appear like a front-runner for Olympic selection by bucking the trend.

 

[Maximillian]

Some skaters need to pace themselves to peak for the top competition of the season while others seem to be able to continually hit the events all season long with proper rest periods, of course. I do think age and wear/tear have a lot to do it with it (look at Kwan circa 1995-1996 where she was nearly undefeated all season long doing 3 GP events, Nationals, went on a short tour, Centennial on Ice, GPF, and then Worlds with some pro-ams and then look at Kwan post-2002).

That said, I do agree that I sort of miss the American skaters who one didn't doubt that wanted to hit every competition and dominate. I do understand that pacing, timing, and strategizing is important, but what I don't like is the way some fans dismiss certain competitions as "well, it doesn't matter because she has a strategy" like with what happened to Wagner at Nationals when some fans said how Nationals didn't matter and that Ashley didn't care about it anymore and she's planning on hitting at Worlds. I do think competitions like Nationals matter and I'm sure Wagner did care that she didn't win the title and skated the way she did no matter how much she wants to peak for Worlds.

ITA with all of this! I was thinking of Kwan (and Lipinski!) who were both so good when they were young at just bopping from one event to the next and hitting it out of the park every time whether it was Nationals or a made-for-tv Pro-Am (and I do realize they had their off events, but for the most part you knew they were going to hit and win), but as Michelle aged she and her team began to explicitly talk about training to 'peak' for Nationals/Worlds and she was always noticeably fitter in Jan-March than she was in Oct-Nov.

It's interesting because the last consistent U.S. ladies contender was Cohen (by that I mean, you could count on her medalling, if not necessarily winning every event she entered) but she was ending as IJS was beginning...