Karen-W
YMCA is such a catchy tune!
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Dare you to do this for the other disciplines!
Visualizing the trend of scores for eight of the US senior teams this season.
U.S. Ice Dance 2021-22 season news & updates
- Thread starter Sylvia
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Head-to-head results between potentially proximate teams:
(I think I am missing the season opener event. There was something before Lake Placid this year, and I don't remember what that event was for ice dance).
-Hubbell & Donohue over Chock & Bates at Skate America (both RD & FD)
-Hawayek & Baker (no data)
-Green & Parsons over Carreira & Ponomarenko at Skate Canada (both RD & FD)
-Bratti & Somerville over Wolfkostin & Chen at Austria Ice Challenge (split results between RD & FD)
-Bratti & Somerville over Cesanek & Yehorov at Golden Spin (RD & FD)
-Bratti & Somerville over Pate & Bye at Blaine, Minnesota Championship Series event (RD & FD).
-Wolfkostin & Chen over McNamara & Spiridinov at Austria Ice Challenge (split results between RD & FD)
-Cesanek & Yehorov over Pate & Bye at Lake Placid International (split results between RD & FD)
-Pate & Bye over McNamara & Spiridinov at U.S. Classic (RD & FD)
Thoughts:
-The results between Bratti & Somerville and Wolfkostin & Chen at the Austria CS, combined with Bratti & Somerville's win over Cesanek & Yehorov at Golden Spin strike me as the most interesting results with regard to the lower teams trying to nab the likely third berth at 4CCs. It gives B&S a good argument. Chen had a trip--I think on the steps though I can't find the protocols--during the RD in Austria and W&C defeated B&S in the free there. Hence, W&C also have a good argument. That said, if W&C were likely to have a weak portion of the event, it would have been the RD as they had been competing the junior pattern previously. Hence, I think this battle could be an interesting one.
-Nguyen & Smirnov have no international minimum to earn a berth at 4CCs. (I assume he has/had to sit out international events for a while anyway).
-Pate & Bye counted a fall in the FD at Lake Placid.
(I think I am missing the season opener event. There was something before Lake Placid this year, and I don't remember what that event was for ice dance).
-Hubbell & Donohue over Chock & Bates at Skate America (both RD & FD)
-Hawayek & Baker (no data)
-Green & Parsons over Carreira & Ponomarenko at Skate Canada (both RD & FD)
-Bratti & Somerville over Wolfkostin & Chen at Austria Ice Challenge (split results between RD & FD)
-Bratti & Somerville over Cesanek & Yehorov at Golden Spin (RD & FD)
-Bratti & Somerville over Pate & Bye at Blaine, Minnesota Championship Series event (RD & FD).
-Wolfkostin & Chen over McNamara & Spiridinov at Austria Ice Challenge (split results between RD & FD)
-Cesanek & Yehorov over Pate & Bye at Lake Placid International (split results between RD & FD)
-Pate & Bye over McNamara & Spiridinov at U.S. Classic (RD & FD)
Thoughts:
-The results between Bratti & Somerville and Wolfkostin & Chen at the Austria CS, combined with Bratti & Somerville's win over Cesanek & Yehorov at Golden Spin strike me as the most interesting results with regard to the lower teams trying to nab the likely third berth at 4CCs. It gives B&S a good argument. Chen had a trip--I think on the steps though I can't find the protocols--during the RD in Austria and W&C defeated B&S in the free there. Hence, W&C also have a good argument. That said, if W&C were likely to have a weak portion of the event, it would have been the RD as they had been competing the junior pattern previously. Hence, I think this battle could be an interesting one.
-Nguyen & Smirnov have no international minimum to earn a berth at 4CCs. (I assume he has/had to sit out international events for a while anyway).
-Pate & Bye counted a fall in the FD at Lake Placid.
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Karen-W
YMCA is such a catchy tune!
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Wasn't there a dance comp in late June/early July in Dallas? Cannon?
Bratti/Somerville, Wolfkostin/Chen and McNamara/Spiridonov were at Cup of Austria. Pate/Bye were at Warsaw Cup with Green/Parsons (and GrePar handily beat P/B, even with the fall in the RD).
Seems like the 3rd spot for 4CCs is going to be between Bratti/Somerville, Pate/Bye and Wolfkostin/Chen. If not for that trip in the RD from Chen, I suspect that W/C would have beat B/S overall. I feel like P/B might be a bit behind the other two but, like you said, W/C have been competing the jr RD most of the season so they might not be quite as strong on the sr RD yet - but the JGPF being postponed certainly gives them some additional time to work on their senior programs that they wouldn't have had otherwise.
Seems like the current hierarchy is:
1/2 - Hubbell/Donohue and Chock/Bates in some order
3 - Hawayek/Baker
4 - Green/Parsons - but they're close enough to challenging H/B that Kait & J-L can't afford any mistakes
5 - Carreira/Ponomarenko
6/7/8 - Wolfkostin/Chen, Bratti/Somerville, Pate/Bye - in some order, probably most dependent on not making mistakes
9/10 - McNamara/Spiridonov and Cesanek/Yehorov - again, in some order, not clear at all which team will prevail
And then there's Nguyen/Smirnov - who knows where they will fit into the bigger picture - somewhere between 6th & 11th, lol.
dancing_on_ice
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N/S scored 161.88 at their US Championship Series competition. That's very comparable to McNamara/Spiridonov's season's best at US Classic, which was 161.82. Of course, domestic scores can't be compared to international scores, but M/S have the lowest season PB of all the teams who have competed internationally, so N/S would probably slot in behind them?
It's so hard to say though since Nguyen/Smirnov made some obvious mistakes at the US Championship Series competition, and as a new team, they're probably going to look totally different by the time US Nationals come around. My tentative prediction would look something like this
1/2) Hubbell/Donohue and Chock/Bates (not making predictions on this yet lol)
3) Hawayek/Baker
4) Green/Parsons
5) Carreira/Ponomarenko
6) Bratti/Somerville
7) Wolfkostin/Chen
8) Cesanek/Yehorov
9) Pate/Bye
10) Nguyen/Smirnov
11) McNamara/Spiridonov
I just feel like M/S haven't shown a ton of progress since teaming up, and N/S have more potential in the long run than M/S. Also, even though Pate/Bye scored well early in the season, for some reason, they've always felt slightly behind the rest of the other US teams who compete internationally. C/Y still have fed support, they were chosen for the host spot at Skate America after all.
Karen-W
YMCA is such a catchy tune!
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I don't agree about C/Y over P/B - aren't P/B a newer team than C/Y? Plus, as @Dobre noted, P/B had a fall at LPIDI which is what decided the SkAm host spot. If the USFS had waited until US Classic, they might have given the spot to P/B instead. As it is, C/Y scored 166.12 at LPIDI and 166.71 at Golden Spin, whereas P/B scored 171.70 at US Classic and 171.00 at Warsaw Cup. That makes me feel like P/B are scoring, at least internationally, a bit better than C/Y.
Yes, that sounds right. I just looked it up. I only found international senior teams on the icedance.com page. Not sure if there was a separate domestic event or if none of the senior teams debuted there. Also, I don't have a link to any senior domestic event results from Lake Placid.
I think McNamara & Spiridinov had a really random big problem in one portion of the U.S. Classic? Like he stopped skating completely for some reason.
I think Pate & Bye conveniently didn't go up against any close competition at their CS, while the three other teams had to fight it out. (And the judges in Austria--where I would trust the judging a lot more--basically said, you-figure-it-out-at-home-and-until-then-we'll-leave-them-all-here-back-to-back-to-back
).
).
Karen-W
YMCA is such a catchy tune!
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I think there were some US juniors that competed. IIRC the big talk coming out of it was that the Browns beat W/C.
Boot or lace issue! You just spurred my memory of that! It was a very bizarre stop in their program.
Yes, the juniors were at the Dallas Cannon Open, trying to position themselves for the JGP.
. (That must have been a really rough skate).
Pate & Bye finished less than a point above Lanaghan & Razgulajevs in Warsaw. All three U.S. teams--McNamara & Spiridinov, Wolfkostin & Chen, and Bratti & Somerville--finished 5 to 12 points above Lanaghan & Razgulajevs in Austria. (Again, I can't find the Austria protocols). Meanwhile Luft & Pfisterer, who finished 4 points below L&R in Austria finished about 37 points below them in Warsaw
. (That must have been a really rough skate).
Karen-W
YMCA is such a catchy tune!
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Cup of Austria results page:Yes, the juniors were at the Dallas Cannon Open, trying to position themselves for the JGP.
Pate & Bye finished less than a point above Lanaghan & Razgulajevs in Warsaw. All three U.S. teams--McNamara & Spiridinov, Wolfkostin & Chen, and Bratti & Somerville--finished 5 to 12 points above Lanaghan & Razgulajevs in Austria. (Again, I can't find the Austria protocols). Meanwhile Luft & Pfisterer, who finished 4 points below L&R in Austria finished about 37 points below them in Warsaw
Lanaghan/Razgulajevs had a big error on her twizzles in the FD in Austria.
Thanks. Pate & Bye also finished behind Lanaghan & Razgulajevs in the RD in Warsaw.
~tapdancer~
Knees won't let me tap dance anymore
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At least since CoP, ice dance moved away from "waiting your turn" to "who knows what will happen in each competition".
Now you can win or lose by hundredths of a point. Of course there is still politicking going on but losing the ordinal system gained us much in ice dance, imo.
For me it's more about how an ice dance team makes me feel, maybe kinda shallow but that's just how I see it.
Anyway, my faves are Hubbell/Donahue, Hawayak/Baker, Pate/Bye. As far as US teams. There are many more teams I enjoy watching both national and international. It's all pretty wonderful.
Now you can win or lose by hundredths of a point. Of course there is still politicking going on but losing the ordinal system gained us much in ice dance, imo.
For me it's more about how an ice dance team makes me feel, maybe kinda shallow but that's just how I see it.
Anyway, my faves are Hubbell/Donahue, Hawayak/Baker, Pate/Bye. As far as US teams. There are many more teams I enjoy watching both national and international. It's all pretty wonderful.
skateguy776
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It says on the 2022 U.S. Championships Wikipedia page that Junior Ice Dance team of Larson/Appel (N1- 2021) have withdrawn from Nationals. It says the reason was a partnership split.
Sylvia
Flight #5342: I Will Remember You
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I haven't come across public confirmation re. Anabelle Larson/Lucas Appel's split but the were noted as WD in USFS' Dec. 9th entries update and have been replaced by alternates Madeline Freeman, Atlanta FSC/Christian Bennett, Ion FSC (102.87 MN-12).
ETA:
ETA:
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Sylvia
Flight #5342: I Will Remember You
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Sylvia
Flight #5342: I Will Remember You
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From Hubbell/Donohue's pre-Nationals media call today: https://twitter.com/LynnRutherford/status/1473078066926788615
ETA another transcription - "Madison Hubbell on program changes before U.S. Nationals next month": https://twitter.com/S_V_Knight/status/1473078064942833669
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clairecloutier
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Phil Hersh brought up an interesting piece of news tonight during the Hubbell/Donohue media call.
IIRC, Phil said that Halina Gordon-Poltorek, chair of the ISU Ice Dance committee, has suggested that the ISU could go back to +3/-3 (instead of +5/-5) for GOE in the future. (Perhaps after the ISU Congress next spring?)
IIRC, Phil said that Halina Gordon-Poltorek, chair of the ISU Ice Dance committee, has suggested that the ISU could go back to +3/-3 (instead of +5/-5) for GOE in the future. (Perhaps after the ISU Congress next spring?)
I think the dance should go back to +3/-3 and the men should keep +5/-5.
Why should it have to be one size fits all, when clearly the disciplines are different beasts?
clairecloutier
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According to what Phil said, I think the proposed change would apply to all disciplines. That is, if it happens!
This is how organizations typically think. They need to have the flexibility to solve real problems without creating new ones.
dancing_on_ice
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Sounds like dance will probably be split in the team event this year. At least, if Chock/Bates win Nationals, they'll request dance to be split. I hope Hubbell/Donohue feel the same because this could get quite awkward if Hubbell/Donohue win Nationals and then don't split the team event when C/B have gone on record that they would split it if they won Natonals.
dancing_on_ice
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This is true, I would say that C/B are more likely to end up second than H/D, but it's not a done deal the way it was in 2018-19 or 2019-20. If I were to put odds on it, I'd say 60% chance of H/D winning Nationals and 40% chance of C/B winning Nationals. It'll come down to whichever team makes fewer errors.
VGThuy
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Interesting to note that at U.S. Nationals, from 2015-2021 (7 nationals) - Chock/Bates won the FD four times and Hubbell/Donohue won it twice with the Shibs winning in 2016.
dancing_on_ice
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Which is interesting because so far this season at least, C/B have the higher RD season's best than H/D and H/D have the higher FD season's best. I still think, though, that it would still make more sense for H/D to skate the rhythm dance and C/B to do the free dance (historical precedent, plus the fact that I've suddenly developed an extreme fear of H/D's slightly illegal lift being invalidated in the team event, and I detest the ah-ah-ahs in H/D's free dance and I would hate for that to be performed twice at the Olympics). Just looking at their averages this season, it's a total coin flip between C/B and H/D for the rhythm dance while C/B have about a point on H/D in the free dance.
C/B rhythm dance average: 84.1
C/B free dance average: 125.01
H/D rhythm dance average: 84.14
H/D free dance average: 124.10
dancing_on_ice
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It looks like both teams would like to split the team event. A different journalist reports from the same teleconference that C/B said they have discussed the team event with H/D, and both teams want to split, though it is ultimately not their call.
They have the higher scores this season even with a fall.
Yes, but they have a head-to-head loss with this year's programs without a fall.
Thus, until Chock & Bates defeat Hubbell & Donohue head-to-head, H&D are the favorites.
(Defeating Sinitisina & Katsalapov would have been a solid argument, but a score alone, not so much).
Thus, until Chock & Bates defeat Hubbell & Donohue head-to-head, H&D are the favorites.
(Defeating Sinitisina & Katsalapov would have been a solid argument, but a score alone, not so much).
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Sure. I would say they are neck and neck
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