Bringing this conversation over here from the U.S. pairs history thread, since it's more generally about current international pairs teams' outlook:
Russia is weakened in pairs relative to what they were for a long time. Their current #1 team is Tarasova & Morozov. A team of their level who cant even win a single major title, would never have been #1 Russian team in the past.
As for China I mean they dont seem to have anyone coming up after Sui & Han retire probably after 2022, and possibly Peng & Jin.
Mmmm, no I disagree with you regarding your observation of Russian pairs. Much of the history of Russian pairs is tied to politics, and to how the Russian federation capitalized on Belousova/Protopopov's ground-breaking pioneering of new moves and new approaches to pairs figure skating in the 1960s. B/P were not hugely favored by the Russian fed because it was felt the pair were too old. However, what B/P did for pairs evolution and for Russian pairs dominance, cannot be underestimated.
There are some Russian pairs who were not better overall e.g., than Tai & Randy, nor aesthetically better than Meno/Sand, but the politics, combined with the strong Russian classical ballet tradition, pioneeringly leveraged by the Protopopovs, kept Russian pairs teams on top for years, to the point where Russians seem to feel they belong on top of the podium all the time. Russian pairs and Russian pairs aesthetic deserve a lot of credit, but their skaters don't deserve credit and points that are politically-motivated. Case in point: No way that T/M should have won 2017 Internationaux de France in front of France's James/Cipres, who skated better than the Russians, in slam dunk fashion too!
I previously acknowledged that Russia's death grip dominance on the pairs podium has lessened in recent years, but that does not mean their fed's political influence, nor their skaters' talent has weakened. It's just that there's increasingly more depth internationally in pairs, as well as in the other disciplines. It's a fact that many pairs teams today have been largely influenced by the innovation and chutzpah of Savchenko/Szolkowy, by the athleticism and fierce competitiveness of Duhamel/Radford, and in recent years by the charisma, synergy and excitement of James/Cipres, especially with the smooth flow and creativity garnered in collaboration with ice dance choreographers.
And yet, seemingly in the minds of many judges, T/M are considered aesthetically and technically the state-of-the-art.
I would agree that T/M are state-of-the-art in pairs when they are at their best technically. But I disagree that they are or should be the face of pairs skating. That mantle was owned by Savchenko/Szolkowy, Savchenko/Massot, and briefly by Volosozhar/Trankov and Duhamel/Radford, and in recent years, it's been owned by the amazing Sui/Han, and by France's James/Cipres through the sheer excitement and synergy of their on-ice connection, combined with their costumes, music, and the exciting improvements they've made to their skating.
Still, the old guard and the politics favor T/M, even when they aren't at their best. Plus, Boikova/Koslovskii, the exciting young Russian pair co-coached by the legendary Tamara Moskvina, have great potential. And there are other up-and-coming Russian pairs with talent. I think it's a good thing though that the international pairs playing field has been leveled in recent years. But whenever the Olympics rolls around, the Russian fed goes into politicking overdrive. They have already made improvements and political maneuverings in ice dance. And you can bet they are fiercely preparing to position T/M for 2022 Beijing. However, if Sui/Han are healthy and in competitive shape, they surely would be favored to win.
The fact T/M hasn't won Worlds or Olympic gold does not mean Russian pairs are weakened. T/M have won a slew of medals on the GP, they won GPF in 2016-17 season, and they have two silver medals and a bronze medal at Worlds. T/M's biggest failing has been their inability to project to the audience and to connect with each other. As well, the competition is stiffer. It's actually China, North America, France, and previously Germany with S/S and Steuer who breathed fresh life and creativity into pairs competition, especially with collaborators like Shae Lynn Bourne, John Kerr, Charlie White, et al, lending choreographic input.
Your thoughts about Chinese pairs may be true. That's why Chinese fed felt the necessity to obtain Chelsea Liu from the U.S. Still, I would not presume to characterize the Chinese pairs program as being currently down for the count. China will be fielding three pairs teams at Worlds this season. We'll see what happens this season. I would certainly be happy to see some groundbreaking changes in the balance of power among the pairs division.
Of course there is always politics, but as you said politics favors T&M at times too and yet they still fail to win even one major title with that. So it seems clear they are weaker than past Russian #1s and the depth are pool of talent overall in Russia is weaker. If you arent convinced just compare them mentally to the Protoppopovs, Rodnina & Ulanov or Rodnina & Zaitsev, Gordeeva & Grinkov, Miskutienok & Dmitriev, Berezhnaya & Sikharulidze, Volosozhar & Trankov, or probably even Valova & Vasiliev or Totmianina & Marinin. And it pretty easy to see they are inferior to all of those teams. A team like them never would have been Russian #1 in the past as they arent strong enough.
As for competition yes China is much stronger now than they once were, but that is thinking long term history, since they have been really strong for 20 years now, and many times even stronger overall than they are now. There was a long period they had 3 major medal contenders in Shen & Zhao, Pang & Tong, Zhangs all at once, which they dont have now. I would say overall Canada is weaker than it used to be. We still have some great pairs at times like Duhamel & Radford, but on the whole we used to be a bigger force than we are now. The U.S is definitely weaker than they have been in the past. Germany used to be a lot stronger in competition, it looks like Savchenko is retired again, but outside of her and her partners and Woetzer & Stuer in the 90s they have had nobody else the last 3 and a half decades, when they used to regularly be a huge force in pairs. France have James & Cipres who are their best pair in a long while, and Massot comes from France, so yeah I would say France is stronger today. I wouldnt say overall the competition is stronger now than in the past.
Politics always favors T/M, as it has many Russian teams, regardless of poor performances. Once again, a blatant case in point: T/M winning 2017 IDF with mistake-ridden
Candyman over a spectacular showing by J/C in their home country, no less!
The fact T/M have often failed with political support is due to the increasing depth of talent in pairs, and as well to the fact that T/M have so far been unable to fully project their personalities or to show any real emotional connection with each other. The other startingly fact is how they have consistently picked terrible vehicles that don't jibe with their abilities -- forget about enhancing what they are good at. Some of their classical selections have worked well, but still without them projecting any charisma or connection whatsoever. I once saw them do an exhibition number where amazingly they touched the edges of projecting a bit of personality. But they need a lot of work in that aspect of their skating. Winning GPF is major whether you think so or not.
As far as T/M never winning Worlds or Olympics, that's because of the stiff competition and because they haven't deserved to yet, not because they can't or won't. If they don't ever land on top in a major, it will probably be because of the competition and because of the problematic areas of their skating, i.e., inability to connect with each other and project more to the audience.
IMO, T/M are not weaker than Russian pairs teams of the past. There were some teams in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s who won mostly because of superior technique and the dominant love the skating community has for Russian aesthetic tradition, not because these teams projected much personality. Most of them didn't. But politics, Russian rep, and their generally consistent tech expertise kept them on top. So T/M are as good and in some cases better than those teams re technical brilliance. It's just that unfortunately for T/M they are facing more depth of competition and they have thus far been unable to find any charismatic mojo. They obviously have been trying, as have many teams, to copy the je ne sais quoi and pièce de résistance that James/Cipres magically possess.
It is possibly true that Rusfed has a somewhat weaker pool of skaters in pairs comparative to their past. If this is somewhat true, I think it's largely because of Rusfed's dedicated focus on improving their singles disciplines over the past 25 years or so, which probably took some talent away from pairs. At least that's a possible factor. Nothing happens in a vacuum regarding developments in the sport of figure skating.