Can anyone challenge Papadakis & Cizeron and Chen at any point this quad?

angi

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My general feeling concerning V&M vs P&C heading into the Olympics is not only that V&M's initial version of Moulin Rouge completely did them in, but they also had very lackluster outings with it. The pre Canadians version had a cheesy , campy downtrodden ending and the overall effect was that the entire program seemed overwrought (even if the tango section was fantastic).
They also had very weak (for them) performances of it all season long. There were issues with their footwork both at NHK and Skate Canada. Then when they finally faced P&C at GPF, they stumbled yet again. P&C OTOH not only had a well received program ,but they had been skating extremely well all season long. Add that to the fact that V&M's aura of invincibility from the previous season went out the window with Scott's stumble in the FD at Worlds , and it seemed pretty clear to me why the pendulum was swinging in P&C's favor heading into Pyeongchang .
This is fairly accurate, but I will say that the tide started shifting after V/M had a very successful performance of their new-and-improved FD during Canadian Nationals and shifted even more substantially after they performed (both the SD and the FD) at the team event. I've read several interesting takes on how P/C avoiding the team event really hurt their chances and I have to agree, they did themselves no favors by staying away from it.
 

vanillashake

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This is fairly accurate, but I will say that the tide started shifting after V/M had a very successful performance of their new-and-improved FD during Canadian Nationals and shifted even more substantially after they performed (both the SD and the FD) at the team event. I've read several interesting takes on how P/C avoiding the team event really hurt their chances and I have to agree, they did themselves no favors by staying away from it.

I think P&C did not skate the Team Event since they knew France had no chance of a medal. It was more that than avoiding meeting V&M. France was not a contender so they just didnt care.
 

angi

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I think P&C did not skate the Team Event since they knew France had no chance of a medal. It was more that than avoiding meeting V&M. France was not a contender so they just didnt care.
The simple reasoning behind it is clear and obvious, yet it doesn't necessarily make it a smart decision (maybe it was and maybe it wasn't). There are also many reasons why doing the team event would have been a good idea for them.
 

Peepsquick

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This is fairly accurate, but I will say that the tide started shifting after V/M had a very successful performance of their new-and-improved FD during Canadian Nationals and shifted even more substantially after they performed (both the SD and the FD) at the team event. I've read several interesting takes on how P/C avoiding the team event really hurt their chances and I have to agree, they did themselves no favors by staying away from it.

Don't forget ... it was their very first OG and France like many smaller skating countries doesn't have the same incentive as the bigger skating nations to compete. Besides, I am not a fan of the Team event... should it even exist? It's all a bit unfair.
 

angi

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Don't forget ... it was their very first OG and France like many smaller skating countries doesn't have the same incentive as the bigger skating nations to compete. Besides, I am not a fan of the Team event... should it even exist? It's all a bit unfair.
Yeah I agree, but I think for many skaters the team event has proven to be an advantage, even those from smaller federations (Israel and Italy are the first to come to mind) and of course several of those from bigger federations. I think it was obvious that the federations learned many lessons from the Sochi team event and implemented them in Korea. I expect it to be even more obvious in Beijing.
 

VGThuy

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Yeah I agree, but I think for many skaters the team event has proven to be an advantage, even those from smaller federations (Israel and Italy are the first to come to mind) and of course several of those from bigger federations. I think it was obvious that the federations learned many lessons from the Sochi team event and implemented them in Korea. I expect it to be even more obvious in Beijing.

Just in terms of ice dancing, I do think the team event did a lot for V/M and the Shibs with regard to public exposure as well. Once the individual ice dance event started, they already had a sort of sizable audience rooting for them. Obviously, V/M were famous before Pyeongchang, but I think the team event helped them gain even more fans or reminded people why they were so great. Of course, their actual skating in the team event had to garner those fans for them. Some people thought before the team event, that doing it may have hurt V/M and the Shibs since they both scored lower than expected there, but it turned out the team event scoring was just harsher and lower than it was for the individual.
 

puglover

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It seems to me that the Olympic year is so much about creating a buzz. The majority of the audience is not turned off by overused, done before and maybe better, too similar in style, etc. Moulin Rouge was a risk for V&M with true skating fans but dramatic and familiar with sensual overtones for the average viewer. They were able to create that buzz in the team event and it followed them into the dance event.
 

vanillashake

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The simple reasoning behind it is clear and obvious, yet it doesn't necessarily make it a smart decision (maybe it was and maybe it wasn't). There are also many reasons why doing the team event would have been a good idea for them.

It is too bad France did not have a decent mens skater like they had always until recently. If they had with P&C, James & Cipres, and a decent man, they would have an outside shot of a bronze medal atleast. Even with being awful in the ladies. Amodio should have made a comeback maybe, or even Joubert. P&C probably do the Team Event then, which I agree they should have anyway, but I dont think they saw the disadvantage/drawback to not doing it.
 

DimaToe

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The closest right now is Hubbell/Dohoue but they seem too “comfortable” so I don’t see them pushing anything to truly challenge the French. Politik wise I think one of the Russian teams might beat P/C at a competition before 2022 when P/C make a mistake and they will be marketed as their “rivals” for the next Olympics. Of the current top crop I think Chock and Bates might have the best shot. Form there Carreira/Ponomarenko but they are too young, by the time they hit their prime I don’t think P/C will be competing anymore.
 

Jammers

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I don't see C/B being a threat to P/C considering they aren't even the US # 1 ice dance team and results wise are on a downward trend in the last few years. Plus they are getting older and 2022 would make it 3 Olympics that they had competed in and judges start getting tired of seeing the same team year after year. It will have to be a younger team already established that will threaten P/C.
 
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vanillashake

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I find Chock & Bates improved a lot last season, but I also dont see it happening for them. Hubbell & Donohue are clearly the USFSA favorites, and I dont see that changing. They have not won a world medal since 2016, and while they used to be judges pets and ridiculously held up, they are now the opposite ironically enough. They have only even made top 5 in 1 of the last 4 Worlds/Olympics and that was at the typically watered down post Olympic Worlds where they managed 5th. I was optimistic for them as possible medalists at Worlds after their big Four Continents win, but the judges were lukewarm on them at Worlds despite skating well, even placing a subpar W&P (in the FD anyway) over them. While Hubbell & Donohue rebounded from the big Four Continents loss to medal even with their blah Romeo & Juliet, and firmly solidy themselves as still U.S #1. It is hard to imagine H&D to come up with worse vehicles and programs for themselves than last season, and C&B with the best work I ever saw from them still could not turn the tables on them. I think despite the great improvements they made in Montreal, Chock & Bates have a HUGE challenge to win another world medal before their probable retirement in 2022, never mind challenging P&C.

Of course who knows, if Hubbell & Donohue have another dissapointing season and C&B can continue the improvement they made last year in Montreal the USFSA might rethink things. And there is still the question if the Shibutanis return (I dont think they will, but it isnt impossible until we are less than a year from the Olympics and there is no talk of it). Regardless one thing is for sure, only the clear U.S #1 can even think of challenging Papadakis & Cizeron, and it will take amazing programs and improvement from any of them to do so. The same is probably true of the top Russian teams, only the Russian #1 (right now Sinitsina & Katsalapov having the clear edge there over Stepanova & Bukin) can even think of challenging P&C.
 
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nuge

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Th Form there Carreira/Ponomarenko but they are too young, by the time they hit their prime I don’t think P/C will be competing anymore.
Well C/P USA should be great by 2026 but I really think P/C could be there they are still so young.If P/C win in 22 they may like to win in 26 too to rival G/P AND V/M golds ;)
 

aftershocks

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Of course these champions will be challenged. It's why we watch. If it wasn't the case, why would P/C and Nathan even have to show up?
 

skateboy

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P/C look to be unbeatable, from where I sit, although S/K are making rapid improvements.

Nathan is for sure the guy to beat although, as others have mentioned, he can be beaten if he makes mistakes. (Let's face it, in singles, anything can happen.) I suppose Hanyu might give him a run for his money although, competitive as Yuzuru is, I really don't see him achieving a quad axel and flip (which he claims to want), along with all the other quads. Hanyu is almost always injured and, at this point, we don't even know if he will continue through 2022.

I think the ones that may just give Nathan a legitimate challenge are Vincent and Boyang. They are both very driven and work really hard to improve their skating. And they both have all those quads...

Shoma is a wonderful skater, but I think, in his case, time will tell. He certainly has the talent.
 

aftershocks

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S/K have improved but they are not improved enough to beat P/C without political help and/or rare mistakes by P/C. Seriously, while they improved significantly last season with the impetus of knowing B/S, V/M, the Shibs and Cappellini/Lanotte were not competing, to me S/K were pushed up and overrated quite often last season, largely because Rusfed is on a campaign to ensure their ice dancers are back in the medals. This after pushing up a subpar team in B/S for so many seasons, who were never good enough to truly challenge for the top spots at the majors. While S/K may be better than they were when they first partnered, it was I/K who were the real deal. But that's water under the bridge.

It's all perception, politics, and how good have you been lately, with politics a huge factor. I do not see S/K as better than either Hubbell/Donahue or Chock/Bates. And why the top two Russian teams catapulted over Gilles/Poirier is also a political/ perception question, along with a numbers game in terms of fed position for G/P behind compatriot teams, holding them back.
 

aftershocks

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Well, I do think that P/C and Nathan would love to have an Olympic gold medal. ;)

Of course. You miss my point. Figure skating is a competition, so of course these champions will be challenged at each and every competition, no matter how close the scoring, nor how large a margin they might win by at some events.

The thread question in and of itself is moot, because Chen and P/C wouldn't need to show up if they are victors by default because they are so good. They have to show up and they have to perform their best in order to prevail. They know what it takes to be the best, and that's a big reason why they are proven winners. But as someone mentioned, and it's common sense: If they actually believed they are too good to be beaten, that's when the winning is over. For champions like they are though, I think their biggest challengers are themselves. They focus on what they need to do to improve, always.
 

nuge

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S/K have improved but they are not improved enough to beat P/C without political help and/or rare mistakes by P/C. Seriously, while they improved significantly last season with the impetus of knowing B/S, V/M, the Shibs and Cappellini/Lanotte were not competing, to me S/K were pushed up and overrated quite often last season, largely because Rusfed is on a campaign to ensure their ice dancers are back in the medals..
I also think S/K were pushed up .They aren't any better than H/D IMO.Also S/Bukin were not so far behind .I think they will still have a national battle with them for the Russian top spot.I think it may all depend on the programmes and that includes P/C RD and Nikita's twizzles ;)
 

vanillashake

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I dont agree S&K were pushed up last year. Hubbell & Donohue if anything were the team overscored and lucky last year. Their Romeo and Juliet was a gigantic bore and the worst thing I ever saw them come up with and yet they won the GPF and medaled again at Worlds with it just by their names and USFSA #1 backing I guess. Weaver & Poje look tired and old at this point, they certainly did not deserve to beat S&K at worlds. The rest are barely even worth noting, although I do think Chock & Bates were undervalued to be 6th at worlds with the improvement they showed in their skating since moving to Montreal. It is clear who USFSA pets still are.
 

michalle

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I think S&K should have been closer to P&C in the RD, which was just spectacular. I liked their FD but their RD was the stand-out for me of their two programs. It may be a struggle for them to match it this year with this theme, but I could see them closing the gap in the free dance if P&C do something similar to last year and they do something new. Realistically, I don't think they have too great of a chance at defeating P&C but that doesn't mean they shouldn't try. We've seen "invincible" skaters lose before.
 

Judy

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This is fairly accurate, but I will say that the tide started shifting after V/M had a very successful performance of their new-and-improved FD during Canadian Nationals and shifted even more substantially after they performed (both the SD and the FD) at the team event. I've read several interesting takes on how P/C avoiding the team event really hurt their chances and I have to agree, they did themselves no favors by staying away from it.

I am not that huge on the team event although I found this one pretty good. I am sure each team or single skaters had their strategy.
 

Peepsquick

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I loved S/K's RD this past season. It was a great tango. I was not crazy about the FD ... it looked messy at times, certainly compared to P/C's performance. They have a way to go, imo.
I did enjoy both S/B's RD and FD for their energy and originality. Her skating still looks a bit labored but then you get lost admiring those gorgeous legs ... they sure know how to put them front and center!
 

arakwafan2006

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if the Russian's get the scores they got this time again, i'll... i don't know but it will be bullshit. Pap/Ciz have no competition.
 

aftershocks

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I dont agree S&K were pushed up last year. Hubbell & Donohue if anything were the team overscored and lucky last year. Their Romeo and Juliet was a gigantic bore and the worst thing I ever saw them come up with and yet they won the GPF and medaled again at Worlds with it just by their names and USFSA #1 backing I guess. Weaver & Poje look tired and old at this point, they certainly did not deserve to beat S&K at worlds. The rest are barely even worth noting, although I do think Chock & Bates were undervalued to be 6th at worlds with the improvement they showed in their skating since moving to Montreal. It is clear who USFSA pets still are.

Pardon me, but :rofl: We all have our likes, dislikes and our faves and also-rans, no matter if we are ISU judges or not, with politicking conflicts and a judging panel position. :D

As fans, we can only bray and opine from the sidelines. It's the skaters who do the hard work of training and of battling in the arena. We should just feel fortunate to be able to watch.
 

CaliSteve

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I'm hoping Madison and Evan have super programmes.They did very well after coming back from injury. They have new dances new coaches and a new training environment.Would love them to get back to US number one!

I think they can pass H&D.
 

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