This is fairly accurate, but I will say that the tide started shifting after V/M had a very successful performance of their new-and-improved FD during Canadian Nationals and shifted even more substantially after they performed (both the SD and the FD) at the team event. I've read several interesting takes on how P/C avoiding the team event really hurt their chances and I have to agree, they did themselves no favors by staying away from it.My general feeling concerning V&M vs P&C heading into the Olympics is not only that V&M's initial version of Moulin Rouge completely did them in, but they also had very lackluster outings with it. The pre Canadians version had a cheesy , campy downtrodden ending and the overall effect was that the entire program seemed overwrought (even if the tango section was fantastic).
They also had very weak (for them) performances of it all season long. There were issues with their footwork both at NHK and Skate Canada. Then when they finally faced P&C at GPF, they stumbled yet again. P&C OTOH not only had a well received program ,but they had been skating extremely well all season long. Add that to the fact that V&M's aura of invincibility from the previous season went out the window with Scott's stumble in the FD at Worlds , and it seemed pretty clear to me why the pendulum was swinging in P&C's favor heading into Pyeongchang .