Can anyone challenge Papadakis & Cizeron and Chen at any point this quad?

vanillashake

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Yuzu would have to have equivalent technical content to Chen. Is that even possible? Does he have a 4Lz?

And is Yuzu competing this upcoming season?

Yuzu would need more technical content, not just equal. Chen gets way higher GOE if both are clean, and they get about equal PCS. So a much higher base value is required to have a chance with both going clean, or even know Chen down to a 1 fall margin of error.
 

VGThuy

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I just saw it happening. Some times you get a feeling when the judges would close in the gap on GOE and PCS when a skater hits their superior TES. I didn't think it was guaranteed but by the time Pyeongchang hit, I wasn't surprised at what was going on.
 

moebius

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Yuzu would need more technical content, not just equal. Chen gets way higher GOE if both are clean, and they get about equal PCS. So a much higher base value is required to have a chance with both going clean, or even know Chen down to a 1 fall margin of error.
How did Chen's PCS catch up with Hanyu's so fast? I don't think Chen should receive the same PCS as Hanyu if both skate clean.
 

starrynight

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I personally never thought Zagitova was winning the 2018 Olympics anytime before maybe Europeans that year. Definitely not around the time of 2017 Junior Worlds. Her TES was already competitive with Medvedeva but her PCS were miles behind and I did not see that changing in just a year. And I still believe Zagitova is super lucky since if Medvedeva is not injured and misses the Grand Prix final (where Zagitova in no way skated well enough to win over a halfway decent Medvedeva), Zagitova's PCS and even GOE never climb to the same level they did. Not starting a debate who should have won the Olympics which is another topic altogether, but politically it never would have happened. Zagitova got so lucky and Medvedeva was so unlucky to be injured and miss the Grand Prix final and a period of time, and Zagitova's Olympic win never happens otherwise. Medvedeva probably even wins Europeans even falling on the double axel in the short now for that matter.

I agree it is all about numbers and momentum though.

Yes and this is textbook shenanigans that resulted in someone like Medvedeva, who everyone thought would steam roll into the Olympics, being beaten.

And it's a textbook illustration of how someone can be beaten. And it happens all the time in figure skating.

On this point, I'm just so interested to see how the judges award PCS and GOE to the new Russian ladies and how they figure out how they will chop and change this as the young ones age up to seniors.
 

vanillashake

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I just saw it happening. Some times you get a feeling when the judges would close in the gap on GOE and PCS when a skater hits their superior TES. I didn't think it was guaranteed but by the time Pyeongchang hit, I wasn't surprised at what was going on.

Do you think it still happens if Medvedeva does not have the injury that causes her to miss Nationals, the Grand Prix final, and a big chunk of the season though? I sure don't. Her scoring arc even on the Grand Prix that fall before Medvedeva's injury was well below Medvedeva, she struggled to win her events with only marginal competition. And Zagitova did not skate well enough to win the Grand Prix final even if Medvedeva made mistakes, let alone if she skated cleanly as she usually did. She was even behind Osmond in the short program there, and probably loses if Osmond skates as well as the Olympics. This would have just cemented Medvedeva as still dominant going into the rest of the season. She probably wins Europeans even with her double axel miss in the short there too now. She probably does not even miss a double axel in the short if she had been competing all season. And even if she loses there the Europeans is not enough to make Zagitova the favorite for the Games with Medvedeva easily winning the Grand Prix final and probably Nationals. Medvedeva still wins the Olympics with both having the same skates, unless Medvedeva bombs the Grand Prix final to lose there too.

I don't care about either Medvedeva or Zagitova one way or the other too much. Just pretty sure this switch never happens this way without the timing of Medvedeva's injury.

As another poster noted though it is correct sometimes it just takes one injury or one little thing to change everything or something that was potentially bubbling under the surface. Like if Chock & Bates don't skate a subpar FD and win 2016 Nationals the remainder of the quad could be totally different for both them and the Shibutanis. This could apply to Chen too, he seems unbeatable now, but it is all about one moment sometimes. Much less likely for P&C since they seem so far ahead in a non mistake, non injury event, but even in there case you never know I guess.
 

vanillashake

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How did Chen's PCS catch up with Hanyu's so fast? I don't think Chen should receive the same PCS as Hanyu if both skate clean.

Not sure, but it is similar to how Hanyu caught Chan's PCS fast out of nowhere in 2013-2014 which many remarked on at the time. Like VGThuy pointed out with Medvedeva and Zagitova, I think the judges want the skater with the higher TES to eventually win out in a rivalry it seems, and will manipulate GOE and to a greater extent PCS to make that happen.

Chen is also American and I am pretty sure Americans still invest more money than anyone in the sport, although Japan is catching up there, while Russia who used to be close has lost lots of ground. Not saying they don't deserve most of their success but when there is a worthy top American in singles like Yamaguchi, Kwan, Chen, Lipinski, Boitano, they are most happy if they are the person on top, lets put it that way. Similar to how Russia had that situation in pairs and dance for years before their quality in dance declined a huge amount to the point they can't be on top anymore without causing a riot, and they stopped investing as much money into the sport and the ISU. ISU is a business and are struggling for maybe the first time ever to raise enough money to even survive these days, that is just the hard truth.
 
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chantilly

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I’ll give you transitions. Not sure I’d agree on skating skills. And IMO no way on musical interpretation.

I think Nathan was incredible last year with his programs. I couldn’t believe his progress from the last two seasons.
 

MAXSwagg

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It took Nathan twice as many quads to match/beat Hanyu's - or even Fernandez's - top scores that he got with only 3, and then with the scoring change he still didn't match Hanyu's best with more quads. He's also never come close to Hanyu's or Fernandez's top short program scores, even with the judges trying to pump up his PCS. Chen has never beaten Hanyu's top total score even though he has this technical ability that is apparently so much greater (certainly not in quality).

Also people forget Hanyu was injured in 2018 Olympics. Chen won the free but the scores add together; his event was a disaster when Hanyu was basically giving him the gold on a silver platter (aka his busted up ankle).

PapCiz won't be challenged - and they shouldn't be - until the judges decide to let someone challenge them.
 

giselle23

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It took Nathan twice as many quads to match/beat Hanyu's - or even Fernandez's - top scores that he got with only 3, and then with the scoring change he still didn't match Hanyu's best with more quads. He's also never come close to Hanyu's or Fernandez's top short program scores, even with the judges trying to pump up his PCS. Chen has never beaten Hanyu's top total score even though he has this technical ability that is apparently so much greater (certainly not in quality).

Also people forget Hanyu was injured in 2018 Olympics. Chen won the free but the scores add together; his event was a disaster when Hanyu was basically giving him the gold on a silver platter (aka his busted up ankle).

PapCiz won't be challenged - and they shouldn't be - until the judges decide to let someone challenge them.

2018 was then. This is now.
 

vanillashake

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2018 was then. This is now.

Chen's biggest weapon is his GOE. Now that he has reduced to 4 quads and Hanyu has upped his difficulty they have almost the same base value. They have almost the same PCS. Chen destroys Hanyu so badly in GOE though, way higher GOE for his clean elements, espeicaly the jumps, than Hanyu for his. That is why Hanyu needs the quad axel to even make it close.
 

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