Can anyone challenge Papadakis & Cizeron and Chen at any point this quad?

VGThuy

Well-Known Member
Messages
34,942
I think whether Chock/Bates can pass up Hubbell/Donohue will depend on how much their glide and basic skating will improve to close the gap on H/D. I do think C/B have other qualities over H/D to make it reasonable to see that they can pass H/D or at least be more competitive with them. It was not that long ago that C/B were judges' favorites and it can happen again, especially in this scoring system. No hierarchy is static these days unless you're like Papadakis/Cizeron and just have it over most of the competitors. I do see a lot of "excitement" in some circles to have Sinitsina/Katsalapov close the gap with P/C, and they may be fast tracked there, especially by those who are now bored with P/C's aesthetic and dominance. We've seen lesser teams rise up just based on favor and perception.
 

CaliSteve

Well-Known Member
Messages
1,030
I think whether Chock/Bates can pass up Hubbell/Donohue will depend on how much their glide and basic skating will improve to close the gap on H/D. I do think C/B have other qualities over H/D to make it reasonable to see that they can pass H/D or at least be more competitive with them. It was not that long ago that C/B were judges' favorites and it can happen again, especially in this scoring system. No hierarchy is static these days unless you're like Papadakis/Cizeron and just have it over most of the competitors. I do see a lot of "excitement" in some circles to have Sinitsina/Katsalapov close the gap with P/C, and they may be fast tracked there, especially by those who are now bored with P/C's aesthetic and dominance. We've seen lesser teams rise up just based on favor and perception.

But there is something that bores me with S&K.
 

Peepsquick

Well-Known Member
Messages
456
You and me both, but I do recognize their objective qualities. Plus, they are giving that old school frantic ice dance energy that is a clear stylistic difference from the Gadbois school, and I think that's worth a lot.

I disagree with this statement: There quite a few dance couples from Gadbois who have/favor high energy skating. Just to name a few: Fournier-Beaudry/Sorensen, Chock/Bates, Fear/Gibson, Lajoie/Lagha, Lauriault/Le Gac, Soucisse-Firus etc...
For some reason people decided that everyone at Gadbois had the same style. It's complete nonsense.
 

VGThuy

Well-Known Member
Messages
34,942
I disagree with this statement: There quite a few dance couples from Gadbois who have/favor high energy skating. Just to name a few: Fournier-Beaudry/Sorensen, Chock/Bates, Fear/Gibson, Lajoie/Lagha, Lauriault/Le Gac, Soucisse-Firus etc...
For some reason people decided that everyone at Gadbois had the same style. It's complete nonsense.

I never said the Gadbois school produced the same ice dancers, but a skating school always has a certain style to them no matter what genres of dance they're trying. I still see similarities to a lot of the teams you listed above where when I watch them dance I can tell what school they come from. That is not a bad thing so I don't think you need to be overly defensive about it. The best choreographers in the dance world instill a style or look or basics to the dancers in their company. Sinitsina/Katsalapov clearly do not look like they come from Gadbois and their aesthetic is wildly different even from the most energetic Gadbois dancers..
 

Peepsquick

Well-Known Member
Messages
456
I never said the Gadbois school produced the same ice dancers, but a skating school always has a certain style to them no matter what genres of dance they're trying. I still see similarities to a lot of the teams you listed above where when I watch them dance I can tell what school they come from. That is not a bad thing so I don't think you need to be overly defensive about it. The best choreographers in the dance world instill a style or look or basics to the dancers in their company. Sinitsina/Katsalapov clearly do not look like they come from Gadbois and their aesthetic is wildly different even from the most energetic Gadbois dancers..


Sorry if I came across as overly defensive ... I do appreciate the quality of skating shared by the Gadbois teams but I find them in general each very true to their own style. It is one of the goal of the school: helping them to find their style. Some fans dislike this idea, preferring a more "versatile" approach. Just my take on it.
 

VGThuy

Well-Known Member
Messages
34,942
Sorry if I came across as overly defensive ... I do appreciate the quality of skating shared by the Gadbois teams but I find them in general each very true to their own style. It is one of the goal of the school: helping them to find their style. Some fans dislike this idea, preferring a more "versatile" approach. Just my take on it.

I’m sorry for being crabby too. That was obviously not about your post haha. I do think out of all the schools, Gadbois provides the most variety and attempts to allow their teams to find their voice. IMO, they have done a lot for ice dancing to make it rise a few levels in promoting actual dance and emotion in the sport.
 

vanillashake

Banned Member
Messages
270
I think whether Chock/Bates can pass up Hubbell/Donohue will depend on how much their glide and basic skating will improve to close the gap on H/D. I do think C/B have other qualities over H/D to make it reasonable to see that they can pass H/D or at least be more competitive with them. It was not that long ago that C/B were judges' favorites and it can happen again, especially in this scoring system. No hierarchy is static these days unless you're like Papadakis/Cizeron and just have it over most of the competitors. I do see a lot of "excitement" in some circles to have Sinitsina/Katsalapov close the gap with P/C, and they may be fast tracked there, especially by those who are now bored with P/C's aesthetic and dominance. We've seen lesser teams rise up just based on favor and perception.

I sense when the downfall of Chock & Bates began was when they lost their National title to the Shibutanis in 2016. Up to that point their momentum was very positive and they were even legit contenders for the World title. Once they lost U.S #1 status, their international status has been on continual decline too. They managed to medal at worlds so it didnt totally happen right away, but even that was mostly only since Weaver & Poje had a poor competition, Bobrova & Soloviev had to withdraw, and Virtue & Moir werent back yet. They did not get close to regaining U.S #1 status and even slipped back to U.S #3. Disaesterous outing at the 2017 worlds and 2018 Olympics where a bad fall both times led to a very low finish crippled their already sagging momentum further.

Last season was a great comeback for them and their programs were by far the most I ever enjoyed them. Maybe the first time I ever enjoyed them in fact. If I were judging they would have won Nationals and atleast placed atleast over Weaver & Poje at worlds if not possibly even as high as 3rd or 4th, even though I knew the judges would not do either of those things, especialy the Nationals win. They have a long way to go to ever get back where they once were. They have lost a lot of ground politically and otherwise, and they arent young at this point and have been around forever now, basically the American Weaver & Poje in that sense. They will have to be really great and continue their great improvements of last season to even have a shot of doing that.
 

VGThuy

Well-Known Member
Messages
34,942
That's true, but I still think it's possible for them if many things go into their favor and they continue to work to improve. I always look at the Shibs being 2011 medalists and then having five years of stagnating on the bottom half of the Worlds top ten where after Davis/White's retirement, they had to stave off a politically-favored Chock/Bates and people expecting teams fresh from Junior Worlds, including a Junior World Championship winning team, to overtake them by 2018. There was also Hubbell/Donohue who were always knocking on their door, who people were waiting to hit their stride, and almost received a berth on the 2014 Sochi team over them. Many predicted they would call it quits after the 2014 Olympics and move on to do other things with their lives, or break up, etc.

The 2015-2016 season was not a season anybody predicted would happen for them before it started, or even after with their Nepala outing where they lost to both Gilles/Poirier and Coomes/Buckland before 2015 Skate Canada turned it around for them. It took a whole season of consistent performances, incredible audience goodwill (especially at the 2015-16 GPF where they were crowd favorites but came in 4th), and a surprise win at Nationals and 4CC (over Weaver/Poje) for things to happen at Worlds, where they held on to their spot despite consistent incredible competition domestically from C/B and H/D that never let up since all three U.S. teams made the GPF three years in a row leading up to the 2018 Olympics. I think nothing is impossible for any more for skilled team, but a lot of things have to come into play and the team itself has to work to improve.
 

puglover

Well-Known Member
Messages
2,257
If I was a betting person I would suspect that S/K will close the gap gradually over the next few years so that it will be a showdown for the Olympics. I am not saying that is what I think should happen - I just think is not unlikely.
 

vanillashake

Banned Member
Messages
270
That's true, but I still think it's possible for them if many things go into their favor and they continue to work to improve. I always look at the Shibs being 2011 medalists and then having five years of stagnating on the bottom half of the Worlds top ten where after Davis/White's retirement, they had to stave off a politically-favored Chock/Bates and people expecting teams fresh from Junior Worlds, including a Junior World Championship winning team, to overtake them by 2018. There was also Hubbell/Donohue who were always knocking on their door, who people were waiting to hit their stride, and almost received a berth on the 2014 Sochi team over them. Many predicted they would call it quits after the 2014 Olympics and move on to do other things with their lives, or break up, etc.

The 2015-2016 season was not a season anybody predicted would happen for them before it started, or even after with their Nepala outing where they lost to both Gilles/Poirier and Coomes/Buckland before 2015 Skate Canada turned it around for them. It took a whole season of consistent performances, incredible audience goodwill (especially at the 2015-16 GPF where they were crowd favorites but came in 4th), and a surprise win at Nationals and 4CC (over Weaver/Poje) for things to happen at Worlds, where they held on to their spot despite consistent incredible competition domestically from C/B and H/D that never let up since all three U.S. teams made the GPF three years in a row leading up to the 2018 Olympics. I think nothing is impossible for any more for skilled team, but a lot of things have to come into play and the team itself has to work to improve.

I agree. The Shibutanis resurgance was a pretty rare thing in dance though, and aided by that they won a world medal so extremely young, so were still quite young even in 2016 even after years of stagnant results. And they needed to display huge improvements 2 seasons in a row, first 2014-2015 relative to the seasons prior (which they werent really rewarded for), then another big jump in their skating and material in the 2015-2016 season. And for all we know if C&B did not deliver a subpar FD at Nationals 2016 and then W&P a pretty poor 4CCs and worlds being shaken by the news of V&M's return, the Shibutanis still may not have climbed back up; which goes to your point of how a lot of things have to come into play, and you yourself need to keep doing everything right for awhile. Chock & Bates are quite different from the Shibutanis in 2016 only in that they are reaching the point now they are not young, and are one of the oldest and most experienced teams and that makes it harder. 2022 would be Evan Bates's 4th Olympics. Judges are biased and prejudiced at the best of times, there are probably many judges who would much rather they retire already than climb back up to 2nd or 3rd in the world again.

It still isnt impossible, but they really will need to overearn their position to get back up there as a real contender on the world stage, and possibly fight to regain U.S #1. The same way Guignard & Fabbri are not liked by judges and have to overearn any of their medals or placements. They will also probably need Hubbell & Donohue to have a 2nd straight lackluster season with like last season more poor program choices and continue to dissapoint people and the USFSA. Which isnt impossible as H&D seem to be wandering a bit to me at the moment, and lacking the fire they had to break through a couple years ago.
 
Last edited:

sap5

Well-Known Member
Messages
9,857
I predict that the judges will give someone other than P/C gold at Worlds 2021 so that ice dance will be more “exciting” during the Olympic year, where P/C will 100% win Olympic gold.
 

vanillashake

Banned Member
Messages
270
Only Chen can beat Chen.

I don't remember the last time a singles skater so deeply controlled their own destiny. Maybe Yu Na Kim, but even she that would only be 2 seasons- the 2008/2009 and the 2009/2010 one she was 100% unbeatable if she was even 90% clean. The rest of the time she was challengable. For Chen only about 2 as well, but probably with many more to come. Chan, Kwan, Hanyu, Medvedeva, Zagitova, Asada, Plushenko never went through a period they were completely unbeatable even going clean, let alone with such a big mistake margin over the field as Chen has. Maybe Plushenko in 2003-2006 was similar in that sense.
 

starrynight

Well-Known Member
Messages
2,971
I must confess a touch of confusion about when it was that Chen ascended to this god like invincible status. Which is certainly a claim indeed in singles.

Sure he's had a great past season, but Yagudin also had a grand slam season and still had rough times. This is also the same Chen whose Olympics didn't work out.

Again this isn't ice dance where if the judges want you to win, you'll win no matter what. In singles you actually have to execute the programs each time to win. I don't understand how, considering how difficult and high risk those elements are, along with injury concerns etc, that it could seriously be said that a males singles skater is fundamentally unbeatable.

I say this as someone who doesn't have an uber agenda here. I don't have a horse in the race in mens, I actually really enjoy the current 'may the best man on the day win' flavour the discipline has. Incredibly more interesting than pre-determined disciplines.

I would just hate for mens to turn into something like ice dance. I know that fans of particular skaters really want them to keep winning permanently, but do we really want mens singles to be like that?
 

vanillashake

Banned Member
Messages
270
I love Nathan, but Yuzu can beat him if he skates clean.

No he can't. Nathan has the same base value, or slightly higher, way higher GOE, and equal or slightly higher PCS. He beats Hanyu in all areas.

Now if Hanyu adds the quad axel, goes up to 6 quads, and Chen stays at 4 quads, Hanyu's base value rises to atleast 5 points higher, he might be able to make it close clean to clean. Although Chen probably wins even then.
 

Japanfan

Well-Known Member
Messages
24,581
Besides, I am not a fan of the Team event... should it even exist? It's all a bit unfair.

Why is it unfair? Because some countries have an advantage in that they have strong competitors in all fields?

I like the team event simply because it means I get to see more skating. But I don't find it as exciting as the individual events.
 

starrynight

Well-Known Member
Messages
2,971
The thing I like about the team event is that it may encourage a skating power house like to Japan to concentrate more on dance and pairs than it would otherwise.

I know it's not practical, but I think it would be more interesting if different programs were shown in the team event. All my family completely confused it with the actual individual event last Olympics.
 

CaliSteve

Well-Known Member
Messages
1,030
No he can't. Nathan has the same base value, or slightly higher, way higher GOE, and equal or slightly higher PCS. He beats Hanyu in all areas.

Now if Hanyu adds the quad axel, goes up to 6 quads, and Chen stays at 4 quads, Hanyu's base value rises to atleast 5 points higher, he might be able to make it close clean to clean. Although Chen probably wins even then.

If Hanyu skated clean at Worlds I believe he would have had the edge. At his last two GP he got 14 points for the 4S in the short and about 13.86 for the 4S in the free. The difference between those points and the points he earned at Worlds would have made up for the gap between him and Nathan.

He doesnt need a 4A, or even a 4Lz. The thing he needs is to replace his 4T/3A seq to a 3A/4T combo.

Both Nathan and Yuzu are hungry and skate smart. It will go back and forth and will eventually come down to style preference.
 

giselle23

Well-Known Member
Messages
1,601
I love Nathan, but Yuzu can beat him if he skates clean.

That’s what people told me last year when I said Nathan was unbeatable. And then Nathan beat Hanyu by over 20 points at Worlds. He won the long program decisively over a cleanish Hanyu. A clean Hanyu can beat Chen, but only if Chen makes mistakes.
 

starrynight

Well-Known Member
Messages
2,971
A clean Hanyu can beat Chen, but only if Chen makes mistakes.

Maybe a better question is to ask instead, what is the chances of various skaters making mistakes?

If every skater always skated flawlessly, the vast majority of competitions would have different results.

To me, this feels like the same conversation as those who believe the new Russian girls will win indefinitely. Sure, they have quads right now, but the more relevant question is whether they can continue to compete indefinitely without mistakes.

There's been so many enormous meltdowns in the mens competitions in the past that it seems quite preposterous that people would presume a certain skater will never make mistakes and be beaten. For sure, some skaters have great periods of competition, but there are always weak spots.
 
Last edited:

starrynight

Well-Known Member
Messages
2,971
In terms of Chen being challenged, does this mean just at big peak competitions? Like Worlds? Or is the proposition that he will always win every competition he ever enters from here on?
 

vanillashake

Banned Member
Messages
270
I do agree there is far more chance of Chen being challenged by Papadakis & Cizeron since Chen can make enormous mistakes that allow a perfect Hanyu if he masters the quad axel, or a much improved Zhou, to challenge. Whereas Papdakis & Cizeron are unlikely to make even 1 fall, and even that is probably not enough for them to be seriously challenged anytime soon.

Still though it is very hard to challenge even Chen, even if more doable than P&C. Yes mistakes are far more prevelant in singles but Chen is not even like Medvedeva, Zagitova, Asada, Kwan, Chan, Hanyu, or most recent dominant singles skaters who were all possibly beatable even when they are clean. He is unbeatable clean, and maybe unbeatable with as much as 2 mistakes. The only thing comparable is Kim and Plushenko at one point, and that is only 2 seasons for Kim and 3 seasons amongst super weak non existing competition for Plushenko.
 

VGThuy

Well-Known Member
Messages
34,942
I think this is just a numbers game right now, so it's like Zagitova in 2018 (which I think people who did the math saw the writing on the wall on that one even as far back as 2017 Junior Worlds) or Rika Kihira last year. Both skaters did lose major competitions they were expected to win though because as everyone recognized, Chen can make major mistakes or open the door enough to allow another competitor to win (if that competitor does his job and hit). Of course, because it's a numbers game, like with Zagitova and Kihira (eventually) someone else may come along with better numbers by 2022 to be put in the position some are seeing that he is in now.
 

vanillashake

Banned Member
Messages
270
I personally never thought Zagitova was winning the 2018 Olympics anytime before maybe Europeans that year. Definitely not around the time of 2017 Junior Worlds. Her TES was already competitive with Medvedeva but her PCS were miles behind and I did not see that changing in just a year. And I still believe Zagitova is super lucky since if Medvedeva is not injured and misses the Grand Prix final (where Zagitova in no way skated well enough to win over a halfway decent Medvedeva), Zagitova's PCS and even GOE never climb to the same level they did. Not starting a debate who should have won the Olympics which is another topic altogether, but politically it never would have happened. Zagitova got so lucky and Medvedeva was so unlucky to be injured and miss the Grand Prix final and a period of time, and Zagitova's Olympic win never happens otherwise. Medvedeva probably even wins Europeans even falling on the double axel in the short now for that matter.

I agree it is all about numbers and momentum though.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top
Do Not Sell My Personal Information