Can anyone challenge Papadakis & Cizeron and Chen at any point this quad?

vanillashake

Banned Member
Messages
270
While I am a huge fan of Nathan Chen and like Papadakis & Cizeron, I do always like feeling there is atleast an outside competitor to a dominant figure. So that said are we set for a quad where 2 of the 4 disciplines are completely out of reach to the field, and there is a locked in gold medalist the entire quad? Even before Virtue & Moir's return, P&C were not considered ensured to win the events they won in 2011-2012 going in, even those they were favored for. Their total invincability only started at the 2014 worlds, inevitable since their invincability to the field outside of V&M began sometime in fall 2013.

Chen is the best in everything now, base value, GOE, and PCS. GOE is where he destroys people most, since even if say Hanyu matches him in base value if he gets the quad axel and PCS, he will lose still on GOE unless Nathan makes mistakes. Uno loses even more badly on GOE if both go clean, and unlike Hanyu is unlikely to match in either base value or PCS either.
 

thvu

Usova's Apprentice
Messages
5,314
P&C's breakout season was 2014-2015. They won 2015 Worlds. Their favor with the judges was solidified at 2016 Worlds. V&M came back in the 2016-2017 season giving P&C true, more experienced rivals.
 

vanillashake

Banned Member
Messages
270
P&C's breakout season was 2014-2015. They won 2015 Worlds. Their favor with the judges was solidified at 2016 Worlds. V&M came back in the 2016-2017 season giving P&C true, more experienced rivals.

This is all true. My point was Papadakis & Cizeron were not perceived as unbeatable the way they are now almost ever. They werent even the favorites for the 2015 worlds, maybe 3rd favorites behind both Weaver & Poje and Chock & Bates. They were probably favorites for the 2016 worlds, but shaky favorites after missing almost the whole season, and there was a lot of buzz about the Shibutanis rising stock at that point with Worlds being in the U.S. Then of course after that they couldnt be seen that way since Virtue & Moir were there, and they werent even totally unchallengable by the field in 2016-2017 as they were 3rd in the short dance at Europeans and struggled vs the Shibutanis in the short dance sometimes.

Now they are so strong, and Virtue & Moir are gone, they are truly seen as unbeatable, with a huge gap on the field. Prior to the 2018 worlds this was never the case to this extent you gave up hopes of a competitive event. And Nathan Chen is in the same position, so strong and unbeatable, pulling a huge gap on the field to the point you give up any hopes of a competitive event, and there is no even minor speculation to who might win. It is similar to what Kwan looked like after the 98 Olympics when Tara retired until her huge upset loss to Butyrskaya at the 99 worlds, except in 2 events.
 

Peepsquick

Well-Known Member
Messages
461
This is all true. My point was Papadakis & Cizeron were not perceived as unbeatable the way they are now almost ever. They werent even the favorites for the 2015 worlds, maybe 3rd favorites behind both Weaver & Poje and Chock & Bates. They were probably favorites for the 2016 worlds, but shaky favorites after missing almost the whole season, and there was a lot of buzz about the Shibutanis rising stock at that point with Worlds being in the U.S. Then of course after that they couldnt be seen that way since Virtue & Moir were there, and they werent even totally unchallengable by the field in 2016-2017 as they were 3rd in the short dance at Europeans and struggled vs the Shibutanis in the short dance sometimes.

Now they are so strong, and Virtue & Moir are gone, they are truly seen as unbeatable, with a huge gap on the field. Prior to the 2018 worlds this was never the case to this extent you gave up hopes of a competitive event. And Nathan Chen is in the same position, so strong and unbeatable, pulling a huge gap on the field to the point you give up any hopes of a competitive event, and there is no even minor speculation to who might win. It is similar to what Kwan looked like after the 98 Olympics when Tara retired until her huge upset loss to Butyrskaya at the 99 worlds, except in 2 events.

Don't forget that P/C have grown exponentially over the years. They had already something special as Juniors but their "ascension" was triggered by the fact that they started skating full-time when they move to Montreal. That enabled them to really unlock their potential and they have been improving year after year. They also learned to cope with heavy competition when V/M arrived at Gadbois. It took them a year to find their stride. My point is that their career is a mix of different facts and events and it can also happen to others. Nobody is unbeatable. I have to say though that their skating skills and artistry will always give them a very special place in Ice Dance.
 

vanillashake

Banned Member
Messages
270
Don't forget that P/C have grown exponentially over the years. They had already something special as Juniors but their "ascension" was triggered by the fact that they started skating full-time when they move to Montreal. That enabled them to really unlock their potential and they have been improving year after year. They also learned to cope with heavy competition when V/M arrived at Gadbois. It took them a year to find their stride. My point is that their career is a mix of different facts and events and it can also happen to others. Nobody is unbeatable. I have to say though that their skating skills and artistry will always give them a very special place in Ice Dance.

Oh totally true. I am not questioning P&C's incredible talent and that at the point of 2015 it was incredible they were already winning at all given how still relatively young/new they were. And their rise to invincability probably happens much sooner without the V&M return, they were already heading there with 2016 worlds. Just that it would be nice to see someone rise up and challenge them a tiny bit, even if only as an outsider who could possibly win if P&C fall or something.
 

Japanfan

Well-Known Member
Messages
24,679
In my view, both Chen and P/C are set to dominate through the '22 at this point - unbeatable if they skate their best. If course, many things can happen between now and '22. And despite his consistency, Chen could have a bad outing at one of his comps, and that comp might just happen to be at the Olympics. I'd therefore say P/C's lock on the Olympics is stronger, as mistakes are so rare in ice dance.
 

caseyedwards

Well-Known Member
Messages
16,730
If Hanyu can always beat Chen big time then why did Chen win 2019 Worlds, in Japan no less, and why did Chen beat Hanyu in the free skate at the 2018 Olympics?
I said hanyu “can” always beat Chen big time! Not will always or has always.
 

Japanfan

Well-Known Member
Messages
24,679
No one is unbeatable and the minute you think you are, someone will prove you wrong.

Alexei Yagudin said that winning the Olympics was his destiny, and proved that it was. IIRC he won every competition he entered in the 2001/2 season, except maybe the first one? Goodwill Games?
 

blue_idealist

Well-Known Member
Messages
2,611
Oh totally true. I am not questioning P&C's incredible talent and that at the point of 2015 it was incredible they were already winning at all given how still relatively young/new they were. And their rise to invincability probably happens much sooner without the V&M return, they were already heading there with 2016 worlds. Just that it would be nice to see someone rise up and challenge them a tiny bit, even if only as an outsider who could possibly win if P&C fall or something.

If P/C fall or something like that, Sinitsina/Katsalapov or Hubbell/Donahue might, just might be able to challenge them. I think it'll depend on the material those two teams have picked for this season (S/K made a good choice last year, but H/D, not so much).
 

vanillashake

Banned Member
Messages
270
If P/C fall or something like that, Sinitsina/Katsalapov or Hubbell/Donahue might, just might be able to challenge them. I think it'll depend on the material those two teams have picked for this season (S/K made a good choice last year, but H/D, not so much).

I think S&K are on the rise and could improve to the point they have a chance (but not certain) to beat P&C with a fall. H&D I am much less sure of. Last season was pretty bad for them despite winning the GPF and medaling at worlds. They need to rebound in a big way this year. If they have another subpar season either Chock & Bates, the Shibutanis if they return, or even an improved Hawayek & Baker could even challenge their U.S #1 status.
 

Japanfan

Well-Known Member
Messages
24,679
I think S&K are on the rise and could improve to the point they have a chance (but not certain) to beat P&C with a fall.

I think S&K are on the rise and could improve to the point they have a chance (but not certain) to beat P&C with a fall.

But falls are rare in ice dance. So if it were to happen, it would be a freak incident.

Barring such an incident, P/C have the top spot locked through to 2022 IMO.

I also think their taking silver at the Olympics was kind of a freak incident, caused by P/C costume malfunction, which resulted in them earning just shy of their best possible score in the SD. V/M then got to skate last in the FS, and performed so brilliantly the judges pretty much had to give them the win. But I think the judges may have even been surprised themselves, as P/C by far were the gold medal favorites.
 
Last edited:

vanillashake

Banned Member
Messages
270
But falls are rare in ice dance. So if it were to happen, it would be a freak incident.

Barring such an incident, P/C have the top spot locked through to 2022 IMO.

I also think their taking silver at the Olympics was kind of a freak incident, caused by P/C costume malfunction, which resulted in them earning just shy of their best possible score in the SD. V/M then got to skate last in the FS, and performed so brilliantly the judges pretty much had to give them the win. But I think the judges may have even been surprised themselves, as P/C by far were the gold medal favorites.

V&M beat P&C in 4 of their 5 meetings, so I dont think their beating them was a fluke. Granted 3 of those were in 2016-2017 when P&C were badly subpar all season, by far their worst season of the last 5, and were struggling massively in the SD all season. In 2017-2018 it was much more an even match with P&C out of their slump and back in form, but it still wasnt a fluke V&M won.

I dont think P&C messed up in the short dance at the Olympics due to the costume either. They badly executed the early twizzles before the costume came loose, and then he messed up the double twizzle in the last sequence which caused them to drop to a level 3 which looked to have nothing to do with the costume either. However the costume makes the best and easiest story so people went with that.

I agree with you on falls being rare, but they still happen. I agree with you P&C are nearly unbeatable for the quad, so realistically I think someone closing to the gap P&C can be challenged if they have a fall is the best to hope for.
 

Japanfan

Well-Known Member
Messages
24,679
V&M beat P&C in 4 of their 5 meetings, so I dont think their beating them was a fluke. Granted 3 of those were in 2016-2017 when P&C were badly subpar all season, by far their worst season of the last 5, and were struggling massively in the SD all season. In 2017-2018 it was much more an even match with P&C out of their slump and back in form, but it still wasnt a fluke V&M won.

I think it was a fluke, but of course that is just IMHO, and my opinion reflects the fact that ice dance has so often been pre-judged. In my view, 'Moonlight Sonata' was seen as a more Olympic-gold worthy program than 'Moulin Rouge'.

I dont think P&C messed up in the short dance at the Olympics due to the costume either. They badly executed the early twizzles before the costume came loose, and then he messed up the double twizzle in the last sequence which caused them to drop to a level 3 which looked to have nothing to do with the costume either. However the costume makes the best and easiest story so people went with that.

I actually did not know about those mistakes.
 

Aussie Willy

Hates both vegemite and peanut butter
Messages
24,750
V&M beat P&C in 4 of their 5 meetings, so I dont think their beating them was a fluke. Granted 3 of those were in 2016-2017 when P&C were badly subpar all season, by far their worst season of the last 5, and were struggling massively in the SD all season. In 2017-2018 it was much more an even match with P&C out of their slump and back in form, but it still wasnt a fluke V&M won.

I dont think P&C messed up in the short dance at the Olympics due to the costume either. They badly executed the early twizzles before the costume came loose, and then he messed up the double twizzle in the last sequence which caused them to drop to a level 3 which looked to have nothing to do with the costume either. However the costume makes the best and easiest story so people went with that.

I agree with you on falls being rare, but they still happen. I agree with you P&C are nearly unbeatable for the quad, so realistically I think someone closing to the gap P&C can be challenged if they have a fall is the best to hope for.
They didn't badly execute the twizzles. I think we expect a very high standard from them so just not up to their "normal" standard which is pretty damn near perfect.

As much as I would like to say they are unbeatable, with the competition these days and everyone so close, you can never say they won't be beaten.
 

vanillashake

Banned Member
Messages
270
They didn't badly execute the twizzles. I think we expect a very high standard from them so just not up to their "normal" standard which is pretty damn near perfect.

As much as I would like to say they are unbeatable, with the competition these days and everyone so close, you can never say they won't be beaten.

Fair point on the first point. Just in such a tight competition with V&M any below exceptional elements or deliveries will hurt both.

The competition in ice dance post V&M and the Shibutanis retiring, and now Capellini & Lanotte and Weaver & Poje probably retired too, is not that deep or strong. You have 2 very young and still developing Russian teams in the top 4, a plateaued or declining Hubbell & Donohue, a on their way down Chock & Bates, and the never going to be world medalists Gilles & Poirier rounding out the top 6 or so. If the dance field was actually real strong I would agree even with how great P&C are, but it isnt.
 

starrynight

Well-Known Member
Messages
3,001
As for Nathan Chen - it's impossible to compare dance to mens singles. They are completely and totally different things.

For Chen to keep winning he actually has to go out and prove himself every time and land those very difficult jumps every time.

In singles, falls happen, bad days happen, injuries happen. Other skaters can get a better technical arsenal.

Every program is a new program in singles. Fall a couple of times in your free on some quads and you can be beaten. But by the same token, just because you fell last time, doesn't mean you won't win next time if you land everything.

Patrick Chan was considered unbeatable right up until the point Yuzuru Hanyu beat him.

Whereas, it's way more complicated to dethrone a champ in dance. What happens on the ice isn't even half of it.
 
Last edited:

Orm Irian

Well-Known Member
Messages
1,223
I dont think P&C messed up in the short dance at the Olympics due to the costume either. They badly executed the early twizzles before the costume came loose, and then he messed up the double twizzle in the last sequence which caused them to drop to a level 3 which looked to have nothing to do with the costume either. However the costume makes the best and easiest story so people went with that.

kittysk8ts is right; the costume broke in the first seconds of the program, when Gabriella did the throwback move. It was heavy because of the fringing and beaded bands and it was shifting about throughout the entire program, and that visibly affected her balance in the twizzles. Guillaume was aware of it too - from what they've said, it seems that it happened because his hand caught on the fabric and tore out the stitching that was holding it closed - and it seems that the awareness threw him off a bit as well. A shame, but them's the breaks.
 

vanillashake

Banned Member
Messages
270
As for Nathan Chen - it's impossible to compare dance to mens singles. They are completely and totally different things.

For Chen to keep winning he actually has to go out and prove himself every time and land those very difficult jumps every time.

In singles, falls happen, bad days happen, injuries happen. Other skaters can get a better technical arsenal.

Every program is a new program in singles. Fall a couple of times in your free on some quads and you can be beaten. But by the same token, just because you fell last time, doesn't mean you won't win next time if you land everything.

Patrick Chan was considered unbeatable right up until the point Yuzuru Hanyu beat him.

Whereas, it's way more complicated to dethrone a champ in dance. What happens on the ice isn't even half of it.

Very true. Chen has a pretty big mistake margin though with the highest base value, highest GOE, and highest PCS. Hanyu can close the gap if he adds the quad axel and pushes his base value to about 5 points higher than Chen if Chen stays at only 4 quads, and in that case if he goes clean and Chen has 2 falls over the 2 programs (which is FAR more likely than 1 fall in dance) he might have a shot. Nobody else is even close, Uno is miles behind at this point.
 

starrynight

Well-Known Member
Messages
3,001
Very true. Chen has a pretty big mistake margin though with the highest base value, highest GOE, and highest PCS. Hanyu can close the gap if he adds the quad axel and pushes his base value to about 5 points higher than Chen if Chen stays at only 4 quads, and in that case if he goes clean and Chen has 2 falls over the 2 programs (which is FAR more likely than 1 fall in dance) he might have a shot. Nobody else is even close, Uno is miles behind at this point.

Yes, but again, the singles skaters actually have to execute that base value and that GOE. Fall on a quad and it's a -5 GOE right there. It's not a given how things will go.
 

starrynight

Well-Known Member
Messages
3,001
Also it just occurred to me that in singles everyone should remember 2018 Worlds.

Alexei Bychenko almost got on the podium.
 

vanillashake

Banned Member
Messages
270
I think it was a fluke, but of course that is just IMHO, and my opinion reflects the fact that ice dance has so often been pre-judged. In my view, 'Moonlight Sonata' was seen as a more Olympic-gold worthy program than 'Moulin Rouge'.

I liked Moulin Rouge a lot but I think Moonlight Sonata was more pleasing to the traditionalists and also suited P&C and their smoothness, gorgeous skating style, elegance, and emotion perfectly, while V&M were ballsy to do a routine that wasnt neccessarily as easy to show off their best strengths. It makes their win even more impressive IMO.
 

Peepsquick

Well-Known Member
Messages
461
I liked Moulin Rouge a lot but I think Moonlight Sonata was more pleasing to the traditionalists and also suited P&C and their smoothness, gorgeous skating style, elegance, and emotion perfectly, while V&M were ballsy to do a routine that wasnt neccessarily as easy to show off their best strengths. It makes their win even more impressive IMO.

I think the opposite is true: V/M's Moulin Rouge catered to a larger audience with its drama, storyline and music. The people attending the OG are into sports. V/M's routine was athletic and dramatic and a crowd pleaser. I "looked" difficult whereas P/C's was the opposite: it "looked" easier (they make every move feel like it's no big deal) and it was in demi-teintes. Don't get me wrong, it was absolutely gorgeous but it was probably the wrong choice for this public.
 

escaflowne9282

Reformed Manspreader
Messages
3,322
I think it was a fluke, but of course that is just IMHO, and my opinion reflects the fact that ice dance has so often been pre-judged. In my view, 'Moonlight Sonata' was seen as a more Olympic-gold worthy program than 'Moulin Rouge'.
My general feeling concerning V&M vs P&C heading into the Olympics is not only that V&M's initial version of Moulin Rouge completely did them in, but they also had very lackluster outings with it. The pre Canadians version had a cheesy , campy downtrodden ending and the overall effect was that the entire program seemed overwrought (even if the tango section was fantastic).
They also had very weak (for them) performances of it all season long. There were issues with their footwork both at NHK and Skate Canada. Then when they finally faced P&C at GPF, they stumbled yet again. P&C OTOH not only had a well received program ,but they had been skating extremely well all season long. Add that to the fact that V&M's aura of invincibility from the previous season went out the window with Scott's stumble in the FD at Worlds , and it seemed pretty clear to me why the pendulum was swinging in P&C's favor heading into Pyeongchang .
 

VGThuy

Well-Known Member
Messages
35,232
I think the opposite is true: V/M's Moulin Rouge catered to a larger audience with its drama, storyline and music. The people attending the OG are into sports. V/M's routine was athletic and dramatic and a crowd pleaser. I "looked" difficult whereas P/C's was the opposite: it "looked" easier (they make every move feel like it's no big deal) and it was in demi-teintes. Don't get me wrong, it was absolutely gorgeous but it was probably the wrong choice for this public.

That's also a great point. People often forget that the Olympic audiences are not the typical hardcore skating ones, especially these days where figure skating has grown more niche in the West and only hardcore skating fans watch it with any regularity. That said, I do think V/M's FD was way risky. They pushed the envelope with technical difficulty and athleticism with a judging system that doesn't truly reward that. It's all about doing what needs to be done as clearly and cleanly as possible.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top
Do Not Sell My Personal Information