U.S. Women [#2]: The Unbearable Lightness of Beijing

[olympic]

I think in a fantasy scenario, Alysa Liu is in Lombardia shape and scoring around Wakaba for team USA in the SP

 

[olympic]

Also I don't think they have much to gain from shafting them.
Gold is gone at this point.
In the worst scenario (for USA) I would have Chen #4 (surely she can't drop below the Chinese entry) and Japan #2 in Ladies, Knierim/Fraser #5 and Japan #2 (that is without Sui/Han for China) in Pairs, Chock/Bates #2 and Japan #5 in ID....it should still produce a 1 point lead over Japan.
Yes, in theory, they can tie if Chock/Bates end up below Canada but really the Pair scenario above is really worst case in terms of combinations.

I actually came up with the same worst case scenario- a tie between JPN and the US if K/F finish last in pairs, but as @Karen-W pointed out, the US would win a tie break.

As an FYI in Ice Dance, C/B have a higher SB than G/P by like 0.4 so it is right tight. Fans have been saying CAN’s FD is stronger than their RD. Nail biter. Honestly, both NA teams should be beating SinKats like a drum on a regular day, but that is another huge thread.

Ladies are more predictable. It would be nice to see Karen dig deep and get 3rd but I don’t really count on such scenarios with US women. Probably 4th and Sakamoto 2nd.

K/F also surprisingly have the 2nd highest LP this season. But P/J and team JPN are all w/in 2 points and they are likely to hit. K/F will also need to but they will know what they must do depending on C/B

 

[Karen-W]

I actually came up with the same worst case scenario- a tie between JPN and the US if K/F finish last in pairs, but as @Karen-W pointed out, the US would win a tie break.

As an FYI in Ice Dance, C/B have a higher SB than G/P by like 0.4 so it is right tight. Fans have been saying CAN’s FD is stronger than their RD. Nail biter. Honestly, both NA teams should be beating SinKats like a drum on a regular day, but that is another huge thread.

Ladies are more predictable. It would be nice to see Karen dig deep and get 3rd but I don’t really count on such scenarios with US women. Probably 4th and Sakamoto 2nd.

K/F also surprisingly have the 2nd highest LP this season. But P/J and team JPN are all w/in 2 points and they are likely to hit. K/F will also need to but they will know what they must do depending on C/B

Well, also recall that ChoBat nearly beat SinKats at NHK and that was with a fall from Evan in the FD. Nikita has been looking worse and worse in the FD with every outing since then, and they skate last, so I think that they could very easily beat SinKats tonight.

I'm not sure where I think Karen will finish. She had an absolutely horrible FS at ACI in mid-September and a similarly bad one at ACI at the end of October, but her other two FS' during the fall, as well as at Nats, she skated/scored much better than Schizas has all fall. If we get Finlandia/IdF/Nats Karen then she'll easily finish 3rd. If we get ACI/SCI Karen then she'll finish 4th. Also, she's had a tendency to be very hot-cold in competitions - good SP/bad FS or bad SP/good FS. With gold no longer on the line and the USA probably having silver secured, I kind of think we're going to get a decent FS from her that will give us 3rd place points. It also doesn't hurt that she's skating 2nd, so there's really not going to be much pressure on her.

Pairs skates first, ahead of Dance, so KniFraz need to skate well. Honestly, I think Alexa & Brandon are both the type of skaters to go out there and get business done, in order to lift up the rest of the team after yesterday's disappointments.

 

[soogar]

They should have just went with Mariah. I don’t even understand how they can trust Karen when it seems like she only comes out the year before the Olympics. Even with a 3-2, Mariah still would have been a hit with the US audience and at least would have kept the tone positive. It also affects other people on the team to see both Vincent and Karen not do well.

 

[bytheriver]

I just don’t see the point in engaging in fantasy scenarios here. Mariah doesn’t have a 3-3, Schizas overperformed, Wakaba really came through, and Alysa’s status is unknown. All three of the American ladies have underrotation problems, it’s our national landmark at this point.

Yes, if Alysa was in Lombardia condition she could have probably beat Maddie. But why stop there, if we’re making up hypotheticals, Alysa from 3 years ago could have gotten 2nd! Or if Bradie wasn’t injured she could have placed high! Or if Michelle came back for her post-baby comeback in 2002 shape, she could have…

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

But why stop there, if we’re making up hypotheticals, Alysa from 3 years ago could have gotten 2nd! Or if Bradie wasn’t injured she could have placed high! Or if Michelle came back for her post-baby comeback in 2002 shape, she could have…

This would be even more epic if you added the goddess Angela into this quote of yours

 

[Debbie S]

It's been a strange quad for U.S. women. Obviously, the p*ndemic upended everyone's training. But looking back at 2019 Nats where it seemed like we had a great mix of veterans and up-and-comers, and then now.....some were done in by injury (Bradie, Ting, Hanna), some struggled with technique and inconsistency (Karen, Mariah, Amber), and then Alysa with her growth and coaching turmoil (partly due to YKW...remember her initial plan in 2020 was to train in Canada). Of course it's sport, anything can happen, but the U.S. women have had a lot of unexpected setbacks. Hopefully in 4 years, they'll be in a better place, but right now, our Oly team is the best we have. Mariah and Alysa could have easily scored even lower than Karen, it's useless to speculate. We knew going in that whoever got put out was at risk for falls and underrotations.

 

[NAOTMAA]

There was always the distinct possibility (Karen AND Mariah) could lose to Wakaba and Gubanova. It's no surprise she ended below them knowing her ur issues and such. It was a coin toss and the chips there unfortunately didn't fall the U.S.'s way. The only surprise was Schizas but she really rose to the occasion. So really Karen only did one spot worse then expected

 

[baramin]

If Karen had landed her loop, she would almost certainly have ended up 3rd, even with the 3t<, based on her second mark--the judges left room when scoring Schizas. While it's not unheard of for Karen to fall, it's also far from a guarantee, and Mariah's jump landings are hardly more secure. It was basically a toss up for the USFSA. Neither Mariah nor Karen have extensive post-nationals competitive results, neither have turned in fantastic 4CC results, and while Karen was mediocre in 2018, Mariah's worlds' performances haven't been great either. Karen has 2 4th place finishes at worlds, so she was where they placed their bet.

As for Alysa, it's not clear what's going on there. A clean short from her with a 2a and a 3z3t< in the bonus could have been 3rd as well, 2nd if she got lucky with the callers. But she's been on a downward trend & withdrew from nationals, and between COVID and her coaching situation, the powers that be may have felt she was a bigger risk to have skating in both portions of the event than Karen.

Anyway, glad to see Claire Seo on the junior worlds team--if the US isn't developing jumping beans anymore, at least we have someone willing to Perform some Footwork!

 

[NAOTMAA]

Everything changes so fast, it's the nature of sport. Never in a trillion years, even four months ago, did I ever think the USA would be competing in the team event at Beijing without Alysa Liu. Unless she was injured or sick and not there at all it just seemed impossible after the last three years. Yet here we are and the reason for it is perfectly rational. The ladies did what they could do with what they had. In the end the U.S. will win silver which is exactly what everyone predicted they would from the start so no harm done

 

[saturdaysun]

The US was always going to get silver unless a series of much more dramatic events than one skater falling on one jump happened. Thank goodness people here are being level-headed about this. It seems the entire internet is on fire over this ~catastrophic mistake the fed made in choosing Karen~. Apparently Mariah and Alysa are the picture of stability and high scores in this alternate universe where they were chosen instead. I really hope Karen is taking it all in stride and enjoying herself and the experience and her teammates are being supportive. It's really sad to see mainstream media being awful towards her too, not just irrational fans.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

If Karen had landed her loop, she would almost certainly have ended up 3rd, even with the 3t<, based on her second mark--the judges left room when scoring Schizas. While it's not unheard of for Karen to fall, it's also far from a guarantee, and Mariah's jump landings are hardly more secure. It was basically a toss up for the USFSA. Neither Mariah nor Karen have extensive post-nationals competitive results, neither have turned in fantastic 4CC results, and while Karen was mediocre in 2018, Mariah's worlds' performances haven't been great either. Karen has 2 4th place finishes at worlds, so she was where they placed their bet.

As for Alysa, it's not clear what's going on there. A clean short from her with a 2a and a 3z3t< in the bonus could have been 3rd as well, 2nd if she got lucky with the callers. But she's been on a downward trend & withdrew from nationals, and between COVID and her coaching situation, the powers that be may have felt she was a bigger risk to have skating in both portions of the event than Karen.

Anyway, glad to see Claire Seo on the junior worlds team--if the US isn't developing jumping beans anymore, at least we have someone willing to Perform some Footwork!

Was Karen’s triple triple downgraded? I was too depressed to even look at protocols last night but having re-watched everything just now I can see the second jump clearly looks under rotated…

 

[saturdaysun]

Was Karen’s triple triple downgraded? I was too depressed to even look at protocols last night but having re-watched everything just now I can see the second jump clearly looks under rotated…

< on the 3T and q on the 3lo.

 

[Deleted member 221]

After the 3-3, I thought Karen was on her way to a clean performance, UGH!

The 3-3 was visibly underrotated in real-time, and my only question was whether it would be called < or <<. I agree with VGThuy, the look on Karen's face seemed to indicate she realized she made a serious error on the combo.

Mariah doesn’t have a 3-3

She landed one in the short at Nationals, and the practice reports indicate she has been landing 3F+3T and 3Lz+3T (for the first time in a long time) in Beijing. I'm not a huge fan of hers, but with the information I have (GP performances, Nationals performances, practice reports), I really struggle to see why she wasn't considered the better option.

 

[olympic]

The 3-3 was visibly underrotated in real-time, and my only question was whether it would be called < or <<. I agree with VGThuy, the look on Karen's face seemed to indicate she realized she made a serious error on the combo.



She landed one in the short at Nationals, and the practice reports indicate she has been landing 3F+3T and 3Lz+3T (for the first time in a long time) in Beijing. I'm not a huge fan of hers, but with the information I have (GP performances, Nationals performances, practice reports), I really struggle to see why she wasn't considered the better option.

She stood up on 1 foot. I consider that a successful execution of a 3-3 for US ladies these days

 

[NAOTMAA]

She stood up on 1 foot. I consider that a successful execution of a 3-3 for US ladies these days

I remember Ashley Wagner used to do that constantly on her 3-3 attempts (or rotate and two foot) and it drove everyone crazy. Everyone always went after her on it and now it's apparently the gold standard for U.S. women. Poor Ashley

 

[her grace]

I wonder if any American lady will land a fully rotated 3-3 at these Games.

 

[buffyfan02]

Go Karen!! I don’t care about the under rotations and all the chatter. It was a lovely throw back performance and you stayed on your feet!! Very happy for her, and she’ll get her Olympic medal

 

[bytheriver]

I’m glad that Karen got her redemption. I know people are coming to tear her apart over her under rotations and placement, but she stayed on her feet and performed better than she has in a while. I’m proud of her for performing through what was some very harsh criticism from the press and social media.

 

[VGThuy]

I remember Ashley Wagner used to do that constantly on her 3-3 attempts (or rotate and two foot) and it drove everyone crazy. Everyone always went after her on it and now it's apparently the gold standard for U.S. women. Poor Ashley

Some did but Ashley had so many fans that defended her, much more so than the ladies here have. She even won a worlds silver with two carrots, something Karen and Vincent are skewered for now.

 

[Sonata]

I’m glad that Karen got her redemption. I know people are coming to tear her apart over her under rotations and placement, but she stayed on her feet and performed better than she has in a while. I’m proud of her for performing through what was some very harsh criticism from the press and social media.

It was obvious by the tears that she was under tremendous pressure. Never seen her cry that much. I like Schizas but I thought Karen should have been waaay ahead of her in PCS.

 

[Skibean]

I have already posted a link to statistics that support what I said. Neither you nor anyone else has backed up claims to the contrary.

I don’t need statistics. I’m a psychologist.

 

[I Luv Bulldogs]

Mariah beat a clean Schizas with a 3-2 at Rostelecom.

I'm sure name recognition had nothing to do with it

 

[mtnskater]

Just watched Alysa and Mariah practice on Peacock. The practice camera was mostly on Alysa the whole time but did switch over to Mariah a fair amount. Is this Alyssa’s first practice in Beijing?

Impressions of Alysa: Bobby pins holding her bangs back (like them out of her face better). Is she on a new brand of skates? They have a white heel. Her head looks more in the game here by far than Nationals practice. Fidgets with her pony tail a lot. Jumps: 1ax, 2lo, 2ax, 2ax, 3 loop (butter), 3 fl, 3lz/3t, 3lz/3t, 3lz/3t, 3 fl, 3lz/3t, 2ax, 3Lz/eu/3t, 1z, 3lz/3t(q). RT short: 2ax, 3fl, 3lz/3t. Really good practice Yay!

Impressions of Mariah: mostly popping jumps and really stalking and missing,popping her 3 lutz . Struggling. Looking frustrated. Run through free mostly marked the jumps but tried the last two jumping passes… hit the 3 flip combo except the last double and flipped out of the final 3 Lutz. Toward the end she did land the triple lutz a couple of times. Hopefully just an off practice.

 

[Rukia]

Impressions of Alysa: Bobby pins holding her bangs back (like them out of her face better). Is she on a new brand of skates? They have a white heel. Her head looks more in the game here by far than Nationals practice.

Doesn't she wear Edeas? They have some with white heels.

 

[maureenfarone]

I've read several references to Mariah Bell having covid after U. S. Nationals but can't find the source. Did Mariah announce covid on insta or twitter or was there an article or interview? Thanks for any help!
Thanks but I found the tweet from Nick McCarvel.

 

[Sylvia]

I assume this was in in the mixed zone? McCarvel's Feb. 2nd tweet: https://twitter.com/NickMcCarvel/status/1488789431985516544

Mariah Bell confirms that she did have Covid immediately following the US Championships, but that she had few symptoms and stayed home to rest during that time.

She tested negative several times before leaving for #Beijing2022

 

[thvu]

I'm sure name recognition had nothing to do with it

Almost everything Bell does, she does better than Shizas. The only thing Shizas does better is land 3/3s. A 3/3 vs a 3/2 is only about 3 points, which Bell can easily make up in GOE and PCS.

 

[saturdaysun]

Almost everything Bell does, she does better than Shizas. The only thing Shizas does better is land 3/3s. A 3/3 vs a 3/2 is only about 3 points, which Bell can easily make up in GOE and PCS.

But reputation scoring is a thing. After what Schizas put down in the team event, she already closed in on Karen's PCS, and I doubt Bell will beat her again with only a 3-2.

 

[sjs5572]

Just watched Alysa and Mariah practice on Peacock. The practice camera was mostly on Alysa the whole time but did switch over to Mariah a fair amount. Is this Alyssa’s first practice in Beijing?

Impressions of Alysa: Bobby pins holding her bangs back (like them out of her face better). Is she on a new brand of skates? They have a white heel. Her head looks more in the game here by far than Nationals practice. Fidgets with her pony tail a lot. Jumps: 1ax, 2lo, 2ax, 2ax, 3 loop (butter), 3 fl, 3lz/3t, 3lz/3t, 3lz/3t, 3 fl, 3lz/3t, 2ax, 3Lz/eu/3t, 1z, 3lz/3t(q). RT short: 2ax, 3fl, 3lz/3t. Really good practice Yay!

Impressions of Mariah: mostly popping jumps and really stalking and missing,popping her 3 lutz . Struggling. Looking frustrated. Run through free mostly marked the jumps but tried the last two jumping passes… hit the 3 flip combo except the last double and flipped out of the final 3 Lutz. Toward the end she did land the triple lutz a couple of times. Hopefully just an off practice.

USA network, during men's sp coverage, just showed Alysa hitting 3a live in practice.