U.S. Pairs 2018-19 season - News & Updates, Part IX

[Carolla5501]

I hope that they just send whoever wins Nationals to Worlds. It's going to be incredibly difficult no matter which team we send to get 3 spots. What worries me is that K/O will win, the Knierims will come in 2nd and the "committee" will decide to send the Knierims because "they are the favorites". Honestly, I just don't see where they "earned" this privilege but....15th at Worlds and 3rd at one GP doesn't seem to be an overwhelming Body of Work. Especially if they are inconsistent at Nationals and don't win. Now if they pull it off and win then good for them!

 

[Deleted member 40371]

I hope that they just send whoever wins Nationals to Worlds. It's going to be incredibly difficult no matter which team we send to get 3 spots. What worries me is that K/O will win, the Knierims will come in 2nd and the "committee" will decide to send the Knierims because "they are the favorites". Honestly, I just don't see where they "earned" this privilege but....15th at Worlds and 3rd at one GP doesn't seem to be an overwhelming Body of Work. Especially if they are inconsistent at Nationals and don't win. Now if they pull it off and win then good for them!

With a single entry, US will need to finish in the top 2 to get 3 spots, I think that is a tall order.

 

[chachacha]

I hope that they just send whoever wins Nationals to Worlds. It's going to be incredibly difficult no matter which team we send to get 3 spots. What worries me is that K/O will win, the Knierims will come in 2nd and the "committee" will decide to send the Knierims because "they are the favorites". Honestly, I just don't see where they "earned" this privilege but....15th at Worlds and 3rd at one GP doesn't seem to be an overwhelming Body of Work. Especially if they are inconsistent at Nationals and don't win. Now if they pull it off and win then good for them!

No team has demonstrated consistency. The Grand Prixs were not stacked this season and no team has really shown consistent performances. Chris and Alexa have big pair elements and regardless of their jump issues they will fair better then any other team in my opinion. Hopefully they have had some time to improve and the jumps will show improvement. Good Luck to all the Teams

 

[Spiralgraph]

I hope that they just send whoever wins Nationals to Worlds. It's going to be incredibly difficult no matter which team we send to get 3 spots. What worries me is that K/O will win, the Knierims will come in 2nd and the "committee" will decide to send the Knierims because "they are the favorites". Honestly, I just don't see where they "earned" this privilege but....15th at Worlds and 3rd at one GP doesn't seem to be an overwhelming Body of Work. Especially if they are inconsistent at Nationals and don't win. Now if they pull it off and win then good for them!

The Knierims might be slight favorites going or they might not. Remember, both K/O and C/L also medaled on the Grand Prix, so their body of work is similar this season so far to that of the Knierims.
How I wish everybody skates well. I hate that TPTB might have to select the team with fewest mistakes for the one place at worlds.

 

[Frau Muller]

With a single entry, US will need to finish in the top 2 to get 3 spots, I think that is a tall order.

That won’t happen but placing in the top 10 at 2019 Worlds (to get two spots in 2020) is doable. And it’s not just the Knierims who could achieve this, IMO.

 

[RoseRed]

I think they should just send whoever wins Nationals. I agree that the Knierims have the highest potential scores, but if they can't win Nationals, they shouldn't go this year.

 

[MrMystery]

I think the Knierims and K&O are the only two teams with a highly realistic chance of securing a top 10 placement at Worlds. I very much like C&L, but I think even with two clean skates at Worlds, they would be outside the top 10. Any of these three could win Nationals, though, IMO.

What I would really love to see is the top three from Nationals go to 4CC, and whoever places highest, gets to go to Worlds.

 

[Erin]

ETA - I didn't know that K/O and Knierims had the 9th and 10th best intl. scores this season [There are 4 RUS pairs ahead of them, so that bumps them up a spot, but I think some top pairs like Yu/Zhang and Sui/Han missed the GP season?]:

I'm not sure if Yu & Zhang will be at Worlds this year - they aren't being sent to 4CC, while Sui & Han are, for example. That said, even if they do go, China only has two spots at Worlds this year, so at most, only one additional Chinese team could get into those rankings at Worlds.

It is harder to get two spots than it is to keep two spots. To keep two spots, the point total has to be 28 or less. To go from one spot to two, the one team we send MUST finish in the top 10. With how competitive pairs has gotten, that is not a small feat.

I agree with your first point, but the pairs field this year is a lot weaker than last year due to various splits and retirements. Obviously it will depend on how they skate, but I think whichever American pair is sent should be competitive for a top ten finish in the current field.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

What worries me is that K/O will win,

LOL..or C&L.

 

[LarrySK8]

The US would do best sending a team that is National Champion, showing full support for that team as a representative and with a specific goal.

That would be gaining another spot via a top 10 finish. However, the team that wins Nationals that day may not be the best choice.

The best way to get that top 10 finish is to either, a) send the team with the best TES base marks and hope they get GOE and kinder PCS to go into top 10 or, b) send the team with the highest PCS and pray they land their jumps, throws and twist without major deductions, which is unlikely given past performances from all 3 top American teams.

My guess is the judging may support higher PCS teams, as is common with US teams. High TES base mark teams tank at Worlds if they miss any elements and get low GOE when they make them. Higher PCS teams like the Knierims with some very good elements like the twist would be my choice if they win Nationals.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Ashley Cain has said they drew last for the SP!

 

[LarrySK8]

Ashley Cain has said they drew last for the SP!

At Nationals that means a lot for their PCS bump - if they skate cleanly and with good amplitude and GOE.

 

[sharsk8s]

Honestly I think it is unlikely that USFSA will send someone other then the winners. It would be best for them to avoid any extra drama

 

[toddlj]

Ashley Cain has said they drew last for the SP!

Yep!
https://www.usfigureskating.org/leaderboard/results/2019/27958/CAT019SEG032.html

 

[Mad for Skating]

I hope that they just send whoever wins Nationals to Worlds. It's going to be incredibly difficult no matter which team we send to get 3 spots. What worries me is that K/O will win, the Knierims will come in 2nd and the "committee" will decide to send the Knierims because "they are the favorites". Honestly, I just don't see where they "earned" this privilege but....15th at Worlds and 3rd at one GP doesn't seem to be an overwhelming Body of Work. Especially if they are inconsistent at Nationals and don't win. Now if they pull it off and win then good for them!

I think since the top 3 teams have been very close this year, whoever wins nationals should go. The Knierims have the highest scoring potential but we haven’t seen those big scores in a while so I say it’s fair game.

 

[Jammers]

It is harder to get two spots than it is to keep two spots. To keep two spots, the point total has to be 28 or less. To go from one spot to two, the one team we send MUST finish in the top 10. With how competitive pairs has gotten, that is not a small feat.

The pairs depth is not anywhere near what it was for the last 3 years or so. If S/K can put it together finishing in the top 10 should be a done deal.

 

[haribobo]

Well Sui/Han are back, Boikova/Kozlovskii and Walsh/Michaud are on the upswing, Ziegler/Kiefer are better than ever...

P/J, S/H, T/M, Z/E, B/K, MTM, W/M, J/C, DMG could totally fill the top 9, so USA is capable but will need to skate better than they did at 2018 Worlds to stay ahead of Ryom/Kim and Z/K...

 

[aftershocks]

Well Sui/Han are back, Boikova/Kozlovskii and Walsh/Michaud are on the upswing, Ziegler/Kiefer are better than ever...

P/J, S/H, T/M, Z/E, B/K, MTM, W/M, J/C, DMG could totally fill the top 9, so USA is capable but will need to skate better than they did at 2018 Worlds to stay ahead of Ryom/Kim and Z/K...

Yeah but Walsh/Michaud are new and inexperienced at the senior level. If they go clean as they did at Canadian Nationals, they are very competitive for a top ten Worlds placement, but I don't see them necessarily receiving the same high scores they got domestically on the international level. The current programs W/M are working on are obviously inspired by what they have seen from other top pairs teams, which is fine. But they have yet to actually define their own style as a pair. Even MTM are still in the process of defining themselves and finding a way to stand out and make an impact. But I think MTM are a bit more experienced and more mature in their style definition than W/M, which should show up in PCS marks.

The Knierims beat MTM on the GP so IMHO, both the Knierims and Tara/Danny, and perhaps even Cain/LeDuc are at least competitive with B/K, MTM, Z/K and especially with W/M, a young developing team just out of juniors. Ryom/Kim and Katia/Harley (A/W) are also young, developing teams who are strong and competitive technically, but also beatable on any given day. Even P/J can sometimes be inconsistent and vulnerable. B/K as a young, developing Russian pair will automatically receive great marks for their superb aesthetics, but if they make mistakes, they too are vulnerable. Cain/LeDuc are vulnerable technically, but they are one of the best stylistic teams who really perform the heck out their programs, even though they may not always receive full PCS credit for their talents.

 

[Mad for Skating]

I want to give Ziegler and Kiefer a huge hug right now.

 

[aftershocks]

^^ Yes indeed, perhaps Z/K have a fan thread in that section of FSU where you can reiterate. And I see that the thread mentioning their coach's passing is on the front page of GSD again. That would also be a good place for your sentiments.

 

[Tesla]

Scoring wise, I think the S-K/K are the best but I think they need a rest. I love them but I think another team should shoulder the pressure of getting two spots. They can rest and get a head start on next season.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Holy Crap. Ashley and Tim served me!!!!! Slay for dayssssss!

I have not even checked protocols yet and their PCS better be higher than K&O. (Just checked... they tied. Hmmm, I give advantage to C&L)

That was so damn amazing. I wish I could get into K & O but it's difficult for me.

I guess the Knierims really need to get back to basics because I do feel they are such a strong strong team.

The elements and performance of C&L are just amaze balls.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

ANL chiming back in.... hey, USA pairs is my thing.....

Did y'all see the landing on Ash throw 3 lutz hennneyyyy? Talk about a quick improvement... Holy Moly......

And no one can do those SBS spins... Im just in lurrrrrveee! Slay for days!!!!!

 

[Bonjour Sherry]

A positive note: For all the criticisms the US pairs field receives, it is at the moment the third deepest field in the world (behind Russia and China). Since when was the American pairs field deeper than the Canadian field?

 

[Jammers]

A positive note: For all the criticisms the US pairs field receives, it is at the moment the third deepest field in the world (behind Russia and China). Since when was the American pairs field deeper than the Canadian field?

To be honest Canada for some time now didn't have much for Pairs after about there 2nd or 3rd team. Canada would have better top teams but the US would have a deeper field. Same with the men Canada had Patrick while the US didn't really have a contender 5-6 years ago but Canada didn't have much after Patrick while the US had many good quality men.

 

[aftershocks]

Well, I'm not sure what was going on, but there was no graphic during C/L's skate. What was up with that??? Did the graphics person get so excited watching C/L they forgot to do their job? We don't get to know what if anything was under review for C/L. In fact, I wish the sport would get it together and use the same scoring graphic for all events. It's so discombobulated from event-to-event. In the U.S., we don't get to see the GOE points and they also don't say what the element is, though that's not as bad as not seeing GOE points. Of course, everything can change under review.

They may as well forget about showing the yellow and green lights because half the time they are putting up yellow when it's often clear the elements were clean. So why not just keep it to themselves what they are reviewing, and we can check protocols later for the final judgment calls. Anyway viewers don't even get to see the outcome of all the yellow alerts before they remove the graphic from the screen as skaters leave the ice.

I thought Knierims would be ready, but in retrospect they've had a lot to overcome, and it's also an emotional time right now for everyone, particularly close friends of Coughlin. I didn't think his death would be mentioned but I believe it was Charlie White who referenced the red Kansas City caps were being worn by some skaters (mostly Sappenfield's teams) in Coughlin's memory.

Anyway I teared up a bit watching Alexa & Chris. I had to replay several times their 3-twist. That's their money element! It's sad things have been so difficult for them when they actually have some of the best programs they've ever had and a lot of aspects of their skating have improved. But they just haven't been able to show it with clean programs. I'd hoped they were getting somewhat back on track after winning bronze at NHK, but they've just had too many difficult adjustments to make over the last year (moving around to different locations, coaches and training environments; learning a new way of training and skating; developing a unique style; they just recently moved to a new training facility with the Meno/Sand camp; and then the tragic loss of a friend right before Nationals. Not to mention coming back a couple of years ago from Alexa's serious illness, and then Chris lost a relative too awhile back, so that's a lot). I don't think they've been able to recover emotionally. But I was glad to see they laughed a little and stayed lighthearted, with Chris even cracking a few jokes.

 

[SorrySkater]

Up until this event, I haven’t been on the Cain/LeDuc bandwagon. I’ve found them to be totally meh. Yesterday, though, they won me over. Fabulous skate. I hunted down a video of Serafini/Tran and was disappointed, based on short video clips I’ve seen. Hopefully they will improve with time. I’ve always been more a fan of Stellato/Bartholomay than Denney/Frazier. They, too, can change my minds.

To put this in context. I also did not like early Ashley Wagner. She didn’t win me over until she moved to John Nicks.

 

[aftershocks]

^^ But that's normal @SorrySkater, because figure skating is a difficult sport and things are always changing; skaters are always working on improving. It takes time. Serafini/Tran are so new, I really wouldn't get down on them, or use this outing as a measure of their abilities. Clearly, their jump timing and abilities together in that respect seem good. It's normal to only be able to compete a 2-twist until time, trust and skill allow Olivia to do a 3-twist. In Mervin, Olivia has a good partner with whom she can grow and learn from. She is new to pairs, don't forget, so it will take time for her to get elements like death spiral, throws, lifts and 3-twist together and working on all cylinders. And Mervin, judging by his recent comments, feels his partner is a saint. That bodes well for them, if they remain healthy and stick together and maintain competitive desire.

Practically all U.S. teams on this senior roster look good to me (quite a few look great and/or exceedingly promising). They were certainly all very enjoyable to watch (aside from Alexa/Chris' troubles and Olivia/Mervin's newbie snafus), unless you are a naysayer and a spoilsport, or just not into pairs skating.

ETA: By 'you,' I don't mean I'm singling you out in particular. Sorry. I think in following skaters, it's the measure of a true fan though to be able to stick with them when they are down and out; to help encourage and support them and to root for them. It's easy to get on bandwagons when things are going well. But things don't always go well for athletes every time out. It's a journey, and figure skating is the most difficult athletic journey of all, from what I've seen.

My heart goes out to Ashley and to all who are coping with tragic loss:
https://www.instagram.com/p/Bs3vRiWFDHU/ Thanks to Ashley for sharing her memories

And kudos to all the U.S. pairs teams who performed so well yesterday!

 

[morgan rye]

wow.............the US pair event this year was the best in a long time. maybe there is hope for US pairs in the future !!

 

[aftershocks]

I don't think there's ever been any absence of hope. Top U.S. pairs teams have gone through a rough patch primarily due to injury and illness. Coming back from those misfortunes takes time and devoted effort. Plus, it often takes going through hard times and misfortune in order to reach great heights. So I hope all U.S. pairs teams will continue dreaming and working hard. And I wish them luck!

There are several older teams who will likely retire at the end of this quad, but quite a few teams probably have the desire, stamina, and time on their side to go perhaps an additional quad to 2026, along with the best young teams that are coming up from juniors to follow in the veterans' footsteps. I think Pfund/Santillan who are out injured and weren't able to compete in Detroit, are among the more experienced U.S. teams who may be young enough to continue past 2022. I'm sure a lot will depend on staying healthy, maintaining competitive desire, and continuing to improve, along with having luck and opportunities to gather momentum as a team.