U.S. Ladies [#19]: Do You Know the Way to San Jose?

[RoseRed]

...
I wonder though, is it confirmed that the infection is in the bone or joint and not the soft tissue? I honestly can’t imagine any doctor allowing her to skate with a bone/joint infection. I find even the thought kind of terrifying. Considering the fact that she’s not currently in the hospital getting IV antibiotics, I’m hoping it’s more likely it’s a really bad cellulitis of the foot/ankle.

... I wonder if she's just talking about a skin infection? If she was breaking in new boots recently it'd be normal to have wounds around the ankle that have trouble healing that could possibly get infected, and would certainly be painful enough to cause a lot of problems for a skater. It'd be a more common scenario, at least?

I believe before the event she said it was a skin thing that kept her from wearing the boot. I can't find the article where I read that.

 

[arakwafan2006]

I hope that dave is the next one crying in the bathroom at a skating event. This forum is too sterile for me to write what i really think about him and what TSL said about Ashley.

It’s likely she was injured in tandem with being under prepared. So what? I’ve already forgotten placements of some Grand Prix events because they’re not significant ( unless you’re Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir).

Unrelated but follow me:One day, i woke up and had car trouble. It was out of the blue as my car was relatively new and had done nothing to lead me to believe this was coming. It was great one day, stalling and having engine issues the next. I woke up, got dressed and was anxious about what would happen when i got in. it started and i drove it to work though it was clear something was wrong. Halfway through the day, i just left and tended to my car because i had a feeling that it was a big problem and , i couldn’t concentrate at work. I had to replace my car, roll my outstanding loan amount into the new car... a mess

Why did i even go into work? I don’t know. I’m not an hourly employee . I had weeks of sick time. Even a floating holiday. So, why did i go? No projects looming. Nothing. I don’t know why!!! I truly don’t. Maybe i wanted to just give myself more time? My point is, maybe Ashley should not have went to SA. Maybe her injury which could have possibly been pushed through ended up distracting her during the performance as well as the fact she wasn’t well trained all hit her at once and she just stopped. Either way, she is not a villain. She’s catching heat everywhere and by people who have larger platforms than just a keyboard on a forum. I’m cutting her some slack and wishing her well! Dave Lease on the other hand, i hope to hear of his tears soon.

 

[RD]

Moving on from the Ashley saga for a second but Karen.........

I know the constant changing of programs is clearly not helpful but at this point I feel like its being used as a scapegoat excuse for the urs and wrong edges that she keeps getting dinged for. At least that's the vibe I got when watching the SA broadcasts. They were acting like if she had one SP/LP program and stuck with them the urs and wrong edges would magically disappear. Never mind the fact that outside of her national title and fourth place finish at worlds her competitive record is wildly inconsistent

That's true. But....it certainly doesn't HELP the situation that she keeps bouncing around from program to program, messing with her muscle memory.

 

[coppertop1]

Ashley’s injury reminds me a bit of Susan Humphreys at the 1996-97 Worlds, when she had that abscess on her ankle and had to withdraw after the SP. People accused her of whimping out. People need to stop being so judgmental.

 

[NAOTMAA]

That's true. But....it certainly doesn't HELP the situation that she keeps bouncing around from program to program, messing with her muscle memory.

Absolutely but just look at her record last year when she had only 1 SP and 1 LP:

3rd US Classic
7th Golden Spin
6th NHK
7th Cup of China
1st US nationals
12th 4CC
4th Worlds
9th World Team Trophy

I just think it was a little deceiving to audiences for Tara and Johnny to put the majority of blame on the program hopping and pretty much downplaying the rest

 

[Bellanca]

Congratulations to Bradie!! Awesome job!! We are smiling from ear to ear!! Enjoy!!

 

[Willin]

@arakwafan2006 What did Dave say? I'm morbidly curious... Though I wonder how upset he'll be to burn more bridges. Does he even realize he's burning bridges?

It's sick to see all the people who think Ashley pulled out to save face. They did realize she'd skated well up to that point in the program, right? And that she's finished much worse skates in Olympic years? (For instance, how would they explain her finishing that program at Nationals 2014?) Or how awful she looked in that interview? Some people are calling that her acting to stir up drama! If they really don't believe her, maybe she should post an instagram of her inflamed and infected ankled? (Which the same people accusing her of dropping out for save face would then be angry about because it looks gross)

 

[RD]

It's one thing to be genuinely suspicious, but a whole 'nother thing to make up outlandish scenarios for the sake of gossip and "drama". Just stop already...

 

[Eeyora1]

Couldn’t bear to watch TSL. I turned it off. I want to say something on their Facebook but don’t want to start a fight....

 

[Vagabond]

I just think it was a little deceiving to audiences for Tara and Johnny to put the majority of blame on the program hopping and pretty much downplaying the rest

Are you sure you were listening to Tara and Johnny? That isn't at all what they said, at least not about her Free Skate.

https://youtu.be/rmaQqDS8FC0?t=39
Tara reports that Chen said she was battling nerves in the SP and that's always been a problem for her.

https://youtu.be/rmaQqDS8FC0?t=116
Tara mentions than Chen has been changing her programs throughout the season and suggests that she what she is doing is like changing the paint color of her house when the problem is the foundation.

https://youtu.be/rmaQqDS8FC0?t=296
Johnny says that it's a good sign that she has that fighting spirit despite all the changes in the program and despite the edges on the jumps. He says that she needs to train hard to be ready for Nationals.

 

[NAOTMAA]

Are you sure you were listening to Tara and Johnny? That isn't at all what they said, at least not about her Free Skate.

https://youtu.be/rmaQqDS8FC0?t=39
Tara reports that Chen said she was battling nerves in the SP and that's always been a problem for her.

https://youtu.be/rmaQqDS8FC0?t=116
Tara mentions than Chen has been changing her programs throughout the season and suggests that she what she is doing is like changing the paint color of her house when the problem is the foundation.

https://youtu.be/rmaQqDS8FC0?t=296
Johnny says that it's a good sign that she has that fighting spirit despite all the changes in the program and despite the edges on the jumps. He says that she needs to train hard to be ready for Nationals.

To be honest I think I'm just confusing all the remarks I read in articles and on boards to the remarks made during competition because a lot of times they are similar. Its becoming all a blur unless the comment stands out for being so outrageous like some of the ones they made about Ashley

 

[AxelAnnie]

@arakwafan2006 What did Dave say? I'm morbidly curious... Though I wonder how upset he'll be to burn more bridges. Does he even realize he's burning bridges?

It's sick to see all the people who think Ashley pulled out to save face. They did realize she'd skated well up to that point in the program, right? And that she's finished much worse skates in Olympic years? (For instance, how would they explain her finishing that program at Nationals 2014?) Or how awful she looked in that interview? Some people are calling that her acting to stir up drama! If they really don't believe her, maybe she should post an instagram of her inflamed and infected ankled? (Which the same people accusing her of dropping out for save face would then be angry about because it looks gross)

You can say a lot of things about Ashley...but Quitter is not one of them. The girl is a fighter.

 

[coppertop1]

You can say a lot of things about Ashley...but Quitter is not one of them. The girl is a fighter.

Exactly. When was the last time she pulled out from a competition? She never gives up. I hope she can heal for the Olympics

 

[Sasha'sSpins]

All I have to say at this point is...wow.

Those 3 spots should be open to whoever can grab them at Nationals in January

Imo, what with the scores she's put up this season - best of the Americans - Bradie is assured a spot on the Olympic team. She still has to do Nationals but they'd be insane to leave a 200+ scorer who can rotate her jumps off the team. Not only that - I believe she's earned a spot in the Olympic Team event. Again, for the same reasons I just stated, they'd be nuts to leave Bradie out of the team event.

 

[Sasha'sSpins]

Excuse the pessimism, but when US ladies were considered to be at its nadir late last decade, weren't Kimmie Meissner, Alissa Czisny and Rachael Flatt still at least able to medal on the GP circuit? That scares me in the present day.

Well, Bradie and Ashley both medalled - and Mirai was 4th in her last GP which is not bad.

I just hope Ashley will be okay and that all the U.S. ladies are in top form at Nationals!

 

[bardtoob]

As of now, my guess is that the Olympic Team will be:

Bradie Tennell - Skate America 2017 - 204.10
Mirai Nagasu - Four Continents 2017 -199.29
Karen Chen - World Championships 2017 - 194.95

because their personal best total scores have been within less than the last 12 months . . .

It is important to note:

Ashley Wagner - Skate Canada International 2017 - 183.94
Ashley Wagner - World Championships 2017 - 193.54
Ashley Wagner - Cup of China 2016 - 181.38
Ashley Wagner - Skate America 2016 - 196.44

The big if with Ashley is "if the international judges dump her on PCS". The other three are getting their personal bests with PCS in the 7-8 range.

but EVERYBODY seems to be getting their personal bests this season

its an Olympic season and the judges are going mad crazy with the marks in all disciplines

Let's reexamine this in terms of Total TES:

Skater - Event - SP TES + LP TES = Total TES

Bradie Tennell - Skate America 2017 - 37.63 + 72.68 = 110.31
Mirai Nagasu - Four Continents 2017 - 32.43 + 69.81 = 102.24
Karen Chen - World Championships 2017 - 38.35 + 65.98 = 104.33

Ashley Wagner - Skate Canada International 2017 - 28.10 + 54.87 = 82.97
Ashley Wagner - World Team Trophy 2017 - 35.47 + 62.40 = 97.87
Ashley Wagner - World Championships 2017 - 35.27 + 56.33 = 91.6
Ashley Wagner - Cup of China 2016 - 31.10 + 48.46 = 79.56
Ashley Wagner - Skate America 2016 - 34.78 + 56.88 = 91.66

Maybe I shouldn't have

--------------------------------------------------
ETA:

2017-18 Season's Best:

Skater - Event - SP TES + LP TES = Total TES

Bradie Tennell - Skate America 2017 - 37.63 + 72.68 = 110.31
Mirai Nagasu - NHK Trophy 2017 - 34.45 + 66.20 = 100.65
Courtney Hicks - Skate Canada International 2017 - 35.38 + 57.78 = 93.16
Karen Chen - Skate America 2017 - 29.60 + 61.38 = 90.98
Ashley Wagner - Skate Canada International 2017 - 28.10 + 54.87 = 82.97
Mariah Bell - NHK Trophy 2017 - 26.94 + 52.84 = 79.78

--------------------------------------------------

. . . Ashley had much more of a case about a year and a half ago . .

Ashley Wagner - World Championships 2016 - 38.43 + 68.45 = 106.88

 

[aftershocks]

I caught up a bit late. Boy, this season has not been very good. Lots of spotty performances and the usual spotty judging has been even more questionable. For my money, Bradie Tennell and Kaori Sakamoto skated the best overall at SA in the ladies division. Turskaya was also good aside from the slight mistakes in the sp. Both Turskaya and Satoko are the best artists, but Satoko's jumps are not great quality. Don't we know good and well that Mirai and Karen are never given breaks on URs, so why should Satoko be given breaks at SA?

And why was Gabby Daleman in 3rd place after the sp with her mistakes? So Gabby gets the nod over a clean and lovely Bradie in the sp due to having more rep! It was not a surprise to me that Gabby messed up even more in the fp. She's lost out there with that fp. Gabby does not have good programs this season, and it has been evident at all her competitions. Polina Turskaya got a bit of a raw deal, but skating early in the sp and making a couple of mistakes is what mostly undermined her. Still, Turskaya is a much better skater overall than even Satoko and Sakamoto. It looks to me like a lot of sympathy for Satoko by the judges. Satoko's jumps need to be examined for pre-rotations and URs. I don't think Satoko deserved in the 9s for Performance Execution either, not with her subpar jumps. But I hand it to Satoko for her hunger and drive. She fought hard for this win, but still her jumps are a disaster IMO.

Sakamoto was not 3 points better than Bradie artistically. Bradie should have received better scores on PCS, especially in the sp. Unsurprisingly, Ashley, Satoko and Gabby received the highest scores on PCS in the sp, simply because as Tara expressed in reference to PCS scores: "Judges give good PCS when you have more experience and have paid your dues." That's horrible IMO, and it doesn't make sense. Paid dues? It should always be based on how well a skater performs. Bradie was consistent, technically precise and a breath of fresh air. She deserved to be on that podium too in both programs!

Also, Polina T was low-balled on PCS in both programs. Serafima Sakhanovich was overscored on PCS in both programs, especially the sp. It must have been the presence of Plushenko as Serafima's coach that gave her those extra points on PCS. Serafima's weaknesses showed up in the longer fp. As well, Gabby was unable to live up to the gift scores she got in the sp. Sorry for Gabby, but she really needs to rethink those programs, but seemingly it's too late. Gabby supposedly is contemplating landing quad toe at Canadian Nationals, but I don't think that will be enough to beat Kaetlyn. Gabby skated better than Kaetlyn last year at Cdn Nats, but didn't get the win. And this year, Gabby's programs are not strong enough to match Kaetlyn's.

Karen and Ashley just didn't really show up at SA. It's too bad for Ashley's injury. Hopefully, she'll be able to regroup for U.S. Nationals. What a shame that so many U.S. ladies haven't been able to put it together this season. I don't know about anyone else, but I'm ready for Bradie Tennell and Starr Andrews to take over. And I wish Amber Glenn could get it together, but she just doesn't seem to be in the right headspace. Courtney Hicks is also extremely talented, but she just can't seem to take full advantage of opportunities to impress to the top tier level. And unfortunately that scenario is the same for Mariah Bell: good, but not good enough to overcome weaknesses and capitalize on opportunities.

While Polina Edmunds has the emotional strength, her physical skills and fitness are not back to peak level. It's a question whether Polina E will be able to get back to where she was competitively, especially with having to adjust to her growth spurt. Mirai also hasn't yet fully put it together. I think Tom Z has had Mirai overly concentrated on the technical and landing 3-axels, when she needs to improve her interpretive skills and skate more expressively, as well as fix those URs and stuff it to the tech panels!

 

[Marco]

In the second half of last season and the first half this season:

SCORES: Bradie has the highest SB total score (SA 2017, 204.1), closely followed by Ashley (WTT 2017, 204.01) and Karen (Worlds 2017, 199.29). Mirai has a 194 from both NHK 2017 and 4CCs 2017.

PLACEMENTS: Karen has a 1st from 2017 Nats and a 4th from 2017 Worlds. Ashley has a 2nd from 2017 Nationals and a 7th from 2017 Worlds. Mirai has a 4th from 2017 Nationals and a 3rd from 2017 4CCs. Bradie has a 9th from 2017 Nationals and a 7th from 2017 Jr Worlds.

MEDALS: Bradie and Ashley both have one GP medal each. Karen and Mirai both have one fall international medal each.

I would say the 4 of them are quite evenly matched that Nationals should start with a clean slate. I love Ashley but I don't think she gets a body of work advantage this time. If she wants to be named, she better be solid at Nationals.

Gut feeling for the O team: Mirai, Bradie, Ashley, in that order.

 

[bardtoob]

Bradie has the highest SB total score (SA 2017, 204.1), closely followed by Ashley (WTT 2017, 204.01) and Karen (Worlds 2017, 199.29). Mirai has a 194 from both NHK 2017 and 4CCs 2017.

The WTT 2017 is definitely a bright spot for Ashley.

Her TES at the WTT 2017 was also promising, given her advantage in PCS.

Bradie Tennell - Skate America 2017 - 37.63 + 72.68 = 110.31
Karen Chen - World Championships 2017 - 38.35 + 65.98 = 104.33
Mirai Nagasu - Four Continents 2017 - 32.43 + 69.81 = 102.24
Mirai Nagasu - NHK Trophy 2017 - 34.45 + 66.20 = 100.65
Ashley Wagner - World Team Trophy 2017 - 35.47 + 62.40 = 97.87

Gut feeling for the O team: Mirai, Bradie, Ashley, in that order.

This does seem like a reasonable team.

 

[bardtoob]

Body of Work Update

Tier 1
- 2018 U.S. Figure Skating Championships: TBD
- 2017 ISU Grand Prix Final: N/A
- 2017 ISU World Figure Skating Championships: Chen 4th, Wagner 7th

Tier 2
- 2017 Grand Prix Series Competitions: RC: Bell 6th, Nagasu 7th; SC: Wagner 3rd, Hicks 4th, Chen 7th; COC: Glenn 10th; NHK: Nagasu 4th, Bell 9th; IDF: Edmunds 10th; SA: Tennell 3rd, Chen 8th, Wagner DNF
- 2017 Four Continents Figure Skating Championships: Nagasu 3rd, Bell 6th, Chen 12th

Tier 3
- 2017 Challenger Series Events and other senior international competitions: [only listing top 5 finishes] USIC: Nagasu 2nd, Chen 3rd, Bell 5th; Lombardia: Tennell 4th; Autumn Classic: Hicks 4th; Finlandia: Wang 4th; Warsaw Cup: Hicks 3rd; Tallinn Trophy: Zhang 4th, Wang 5th
- 2017 U.S. Figure Skating Championships: Chen 1st, Wagner 2nd, Bell 3rd, Nagasu 4th, Zhang 5th, etc.
- 2017 World Junior Figure Skating Championships: Tennell 7th, Andrews 12th
- 2017 ISU Junior Grand Prix Final: N/A

Does the World Team Trophy 2017 (WTT) factor into the selection critieria?

 

[Marco]

It is a pity that Ashley withdrew from the free here at Skate America. From reports, she had been practicing the 3loop-3sal a lot with success and I want her to land a clean one which she hasn't done in some time.

 

[Marco]

Does the World Team Trophy 2017 (WTT) factor into the selection critieria?

Probably in Tier 3 under "Challenger Series Events and other senior international competitions" - although I don't know how much impact there is due to the team format (i.e. she earned SB there and helped Team USA with getting bronze, but she received no individual placement)

 

[haribobo]

Low as Satoko's jumps were, I did not catch any underrotations either live or on instant replay. I was speaking with a former skater there who also saw no major issue with her jump technique. Thus, I cannot disput her win, even though Bradie and Kaori were also fantastic this week. Any of those 3 could've won and I wouldn't have batted an eye.

Polina T., Leonova, and Serafima were all quite impressive but didn't deserve the podium over those 3 this time around. I find Polina's music choices a bit lacking in joy, but there's a lot of talent to work with there. Serafima needs more speed but her jumping already seems significantly cleaned up and her 2axel is definitely less crazy/horrible. Leonova overcomes her shortcomings and did great in both programs. IMO Karen handled herself well all things considered. Her programs were a delight and that SP fall was sort of a fluke, she hit a beauty of a 3loop in warmup. Her current programs are excellent vehicles and ultimately were probably the right choice. I could see her easily rocking these at Nationals and am still optomistic about her chances going forward, feels like some people are being way too harsh on her.

Gabby was coming off being sick so I wasn't expecting the moon here but that LP isn't doing it for me and I'd dump it. She's still a high quality skater as evidenced by her SP. Spins are a weak point as they were for Ashley. Rajicova and X Li both did well for themselves and landed a lot. They were slowish and generally lacking in gusto but would have finished much higher were the field not so impressive.

All in all, the ladies field was quite excellent and dramatic viewing, best discipline of the comp. As a frozen snapshot in time, forgetting about the rest of the season for a minute, a lot of skaters achieved success and positive steps here. It was great to see!

 

[SmallFairy]

I saw the interview with Ashley and my heart is breaking for her. Hope she'll be back in shape and fit for Nationals. I want a kick-ass competition!

 

[olympic]

Congratulations to Bradie! Her scores at least put her in the ballpark w/ Ashley and Gracie, when they were peaking a couple of seasons ago and it saves face for US ladies.

 

[Tavi]

Probably in Tier 3 under "Challenger Series Events and other senior international competitions" - although I don't know how much impact there is due to the team format (i.e. she earned SB there and helped Team USA with getting bronze, but she received no individual placement)

Someone on Golden Skate published the criteria, which she got from the members-only section of the USFS website. I don’t think WTT is included. If I recall correctly, Tier 3 = 2017 Challenger Series, 2017 JWC, 2017 JGPF, and 2017 Nats. Tier 2 = 2017 GP events and 4CC. Tier 1 = 2018 Nats, 2017 GPF, 2017 Worlds. All events in a single tier are supposed to be equally weighted. They’re also supposed to take scoring trends into account - ie, increasing scores over time = positive; decreasing scores = negative.

 

[Coco]

Could some kind soul take all the scores earned by US ladies this year in senior international competition and average them?

 

[Carolla5501]

Folks if you just quit feeding the gossip monster he will die. Don't follow TSL on facebook, don't watch his trash and let him wither away!

 

[morqet]

Average International Scores from this season (GPs/Challengers/Senior Bs including Philadelphia International):

Bradie Tennell 195.26
Mirai Nagasu 185.42
Ashley Wagner 183.94
Karen Chen 178.51
Angela Wang 175.81
Courtney Hicks 174.51
Mariah Bell 174.42
Caroline Zhang 169.39
Amber Glenn 150.65
Polina Edmunds 149.99
Starr Andrews 149.91
Tessa Hong 149.07
Olivia Shilling 134.78
Paige Rydberg 119.71

And with 4CCs & Worlds from last season added:

Bradie Tennell 195.26
Ashley Wagner 188.74
Mirai Nagasu 187.80
Karen Chen 180.33
Mariah Bell 177.52
Courtney Hicks 174.51
Angela Wang 175.81
Caroline Zhang 169.39
Amber Glenn 150.65
Polina Edmunds 149.99
Starr Andrews 149.91
Tessa Hong 149.07
Olivia Shilling 134.78
Paige Rydberg 119.71

 

[aftershocks]

I just saw Karen on the Today Show, skating at Rockefeller Center.