U.S. Ladies [#19]: Do You Know the Way to San Jose?

[RD]

I hate to say it, but Ashley Wagner's personal best scores are really aging. It looks like she peaked at 2016 Worlds.

As of now, my guess is that the Olympic Team will be:

Bradie Tennell - Skate America 2017 - 204.10 S
Mirai Nagasu - Four Continents 2017
Karen Chen - World Championships 2017

because their personal best total scores have been within the last 12 months.

However, I do think there is still something to say for Ashley's consistency in comparison to Karen.

I think they still must be top 3 at nationals...say that is indeed the result and Wagner competes and is 4th...Wagner could be out of luck here.

 

[flyushka]

Really? Osteomyelitis and joint capsule/soft tissue infections? (Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong) I know stronger UTIs/Pneumonia/Sepsis/TB are a problem..

The reason it's not seen in otherwise healthy individuals is route of infection. In diabetes or PVD, there are more wounds and more severe wounds/ulcers on the foot leading to more opportunities for infection (not to mention immunosuppression with diabetes. Ashley, as far as I know, does not have diabetes or peripheral vascular disease, and is not at risk for severe enough ankle wounds for a deep infection (maybe an infected cut, but nothing down into the ankle joint). In trauma the route is related to, there are again deep wounds or more commonly a compound fracture (where the bone sticks through the skin). Sepsis can lead to this, but if Ashley had sepsis or trauma that severe there's no way would she would try to compete. IV Drug use is the other common route for infections like this, but that makes no sense in Ashley's case.

I agree - I've seen a few infected joints in relatively young/healthy people back in my med school/intern days and they were generally a ticket to a week in the ICU with some heavy antibiotics and maybe a PICC line for 6 weeks. They were also incredibly painful with even the lightest touch, despite strong opioid pain management. They were usually due to trauma with bleeding into the joint if some other underlying disease wasn't present. Corticosteroid injections into a joint could be a risk factor that I could see maybe affecting a skater but that would be really rare too. It's not my area so perhaps it's possible to have a milder case that would allow skating, but I haven't seen it. I wonder if she's just talking about a skin infection? If she was breaking in new boots recently it'd be normal to have wounds around the ankle that have trouble healing that could possibly get infected, and would certainly be painful enough to cause a lot of problems for a skater. It'd be a more common scenario, at least?

 

[bardtoob]

I think they still must be top 3 at nationals...say that is indeed the result and Wagner competes and is 4th...Wagner could be out of luck here.

That is still far different than the last Olympics, when Wagner did not have to be top 3.

 

[VGThuy]

I really don't think they should deviate from the top 3 at Nationals considering everyone's record going into Nationals this season.

 

[bardtoob]

I really don't think they should deviate from the top 3 at Nationals considering everyone's record going into Nationals this season.

I think they should . . . IF IT IS A SPLAT FEST.

 

[MRani]

Like I've said before, Ashley's greatest asset is her consistency, and USFSA knows that. That's why they want her on the team. Sure, she didn't skate her best here, but the reason for low scores here an at SC were URs, not anything disastrous like a fall or popping several jumps in a program. And the fact that she could skate a SP where the only problem was URs and made it through two jumping passes and two spins in a FP with an ankle in such bad condition only solidifies that. If she can skate that well when in excruciating pain, I think USFSA can trust her not to have a meltdown at the Olympics, and that's why I think she's a lock.

As for Mirai's fans... Man, that's a chip on their shoulder. I think she has a great shot at making it this year. I don't know why they're so upset about Ashley - don't they realize there's two other spots? I'm sure plenty of Mirai fans (like me) know she has a good shot at the team and aren't worrying about Ashley "stealing" her spot. The loud ones are the ones saying that are, unfortunately, the ones most likely to comment on a FB post.

@MRani I don't think it's Osteomyelitis, since she'd certainly be in the hospital still. She did word it as an ankle infection, so I'm thinking cellulitis or a more mild infection of the joint capsule. Either way, I don't think she should be competing on it.

I agree with a lot of what you said but I don’t think Ashley’s a lock for the team if she’s not top 3 at Nationals. I think the judges might try to help her be in the top 3 for the reasons you described, but she still has to deliver 2 technically sound programs. The top 3 at Nationals will probably be on the team.

I agree that she probably has a cellulitis that can be treated with oral antibiotics. I’m hoping she can take enough time off ice for it to heal properly and still have enough time to train for Nationals.

 

[bardtoob]

I agree that she probably has a cellulitis that can be treated with oral antibiotics. I’m hoping she can take enough time off ice for it to heal properly and still have enough time to train for Nationals.

I hope she has already received IV Antibiotics if it is cellulitis!

 

[Willin]

Yeah - all the patients I've seen with cellulitis had IV antibiotics for at least a few days. Then again, all the cases of cellulitis I've ever seen were caused by IV drug use, so who knows what the deal is if it's caused by something else... It seems any sort of infection in that area except for a tiny infected cut would've needed IV antibiotics and rest, usually along with immobilization. I wonder if this was a lax doctor or Ashley being too determined to compete...

 

[MRani]

I hope she has already received IV Antibiotics if it is cellulitis!

Cellulitis can usually be treated with oral antibiotics. IV antibiotics are usually only required if the infection doesn’t respond to oral treatment, if there is a sign of systemic infection like a fever, or it’s just a really severe and widespread case. I’m hoping none of these are true for Ashley.

At least that’s how we approach it in the ER. There may be more nuanced factors to the treatment that experts in ID or derm would know of.

Edit: I’m coming from a Peds ED standpoint, so I suppose we approach it somewhat differently in healthy kids vs IV drug users lol

 

[bardtoob]

As of now, my guess is that the Olympic Team will be:

Bradie Tennell - Skate America 2017 - 204.10
Mirai Nagasu - Four Continents 2017 -199.29
Karen Chen - World Championships 2017 - 194.95
...
Ashley Wagner - Skate Canada International 2017 - 183.94
Ashley Wagner - World Championships 2017 - 193.54
Ashley Wagner - Cup of China 2016 - 181.38
Ashley Wagner - Skate America 2017 - 196.44

The big if with Ashley is "if the international judges dump her on PCS". The other three are getting their personal bests with PCS in the 7-8 range.

 

[bardtoob]

Cellulitis can usually be treated with oral antibiotics. IV antibiotics are usually only required if the infection doesn’t respond to oral treatment, if there is a sign of systemic infection like a fever, or it’s just a really severe and widespread case. I’m hoping none of these are true for Ashley.

At least that’s how we approach it in the ER. There may be more nuanced factors to the treatment that experts in ID or derm would know of.

Edit: I’m coming from a Peds ED standpoint, so I suppose we approach it somewhat differently in healthy kids vs IV drug users lol

Another nuance is how a Sports Medicine MD would treat a professional athlete that is pounding on that ankle and any justification for more aggressive treatment precisely because she needs that ankle to compete.

 

[MRani]

Another nuance is how a Sports Medicine MD would treat a professional athlete that is pounding on that ankle and any justification for more aggressive treatment precisely because she needs that ankle to compete.

That’s a very good point. I hope she’s getting the appropriate treatment. Not just for her skating career but for her overall health and quality of life after skating.

 

[Spun Silver]

Whole post

How weird and wonderful that Sasha is still in the mix in all three categories after all that’s happened since her prime years.

 

[Willin]

@MRani @bardtoob She said that she discussed it with the doctor and did everything she could to make sure it was a "quick fix," even if it didn't work as a quick fix. Maybe she didn't realize that infections are, by their nature, not something that can be fixed in a week?

 

[MRani]

@MRani @bardtoob She said that she discussed it with the doctor and did everything she could to make sure it was a "quick fix," even if it didn't work as a quick fix. Maybe she didn't realize that infections are, by their nature, not something that can be fixed in a week?

That doesn’t sound good to me. An infection also won’t heal properly if the area is continually traumatized, as I’d imagine her ankle would be while training jumping elements in skating boots. I hope she goes back to her doctors and they reevaluate what’s necessary for a full recovery, even if it has to be a longer and slower road. It just really really sucks that this happens a month from Nationals in an Olympic year

 

[bardtoob]

An infection also won’t heal properly if the area continually traumatized, as I’d imagine her ankle would be while training jumping elements in skating boots.

My fingers will not let me type the potential complication that I could see developing from this.

I hope it is treated aggressively and she stays off of it for a couple of weeks.

 

[Coco]

If Wagner had withdrawn prior to the competition starting, what US Lady would have taken her spot?

Hicks? Andrews?

ETA: To those who think Ashley withdrew because of Bradie's score, she skated after Mariah Bell last year (Mariah went 8th, Ashley 10th) when Bell had scored a 130.

http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1617/gpusa2016/SEG004.HTM

 

[Vagabond]

Andrews skated on the Junior Grand Prix this season and was therefore ineligible for consideration. Hicks was the obvious choice.

 

[bardtoob]

To those who think Ashley withdrew because of Bradie's score, she skated after Mariah Bell last year (Mariah went 8th, Ashley 10th) when Bell had scored a 130.

http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1617/gpusa2016/SEG004.HTM

I do not think that.

I think Ashley wanted to perform well by the brute force of her will, but her body would not go along with it . . . which could be reframed as denial.

 

[vesperholly]

Body of Work Update

Tier 1
- 2018 U.S. Figure Skating Championships: TBD
- 2017 ISU Grand Prix Final: N/A
- 2017 ISU World Figure Skating Championships: Chen 4th, Wagner 7th, Bell 12th

Tier 2
- 2017 Grand Prix Series Competitions: RC: Bell 6th, Nagasu 7th; SC: Wagner 3rd, Hicks 4th, Chen 7th; COC: Glenn 10th; NHK: Nagasu 4th, Bell 9th; IDF: Edmunds 10th; SA: Tennell 3rd, Chen 8th, Wagner DNF
- 2017 Four Continents Figure Skating Championships: Nagasu 3rd, Bell 6th, Chen 12th

Tier 3
- 2017 Challenger Series Events and other senior international competitions: [only listing top 5 finishes] USIC: Nagasu 2nd, Chen 3rd, Bell 5th; Lombardia: Tennell 4th; Autumn Classic: Hicks 4th; Finlandia: Wang 4th; Warsaw Cup: Hicks 3rd; Tallinn Trophy: Zhang 4th, Wang 5th
- 2017 U.S. Figure Skating Championships: Chen 1st, Wagner 2nd, Bell 3rd, Nagasu 4th, Zhang 5th, etc.
- 2017 World Junior Figure Skating Championships: Tennell 7th, Andrews 12th
- 2017 ISU Junior Grand Prix Final: N/A

You forgot Bell's Worlds result.

 

[Eeyora1]

I hope my girl Ashley heals in time for Nationals. I do think her injury impacted her short program because she seemed not like herself.

Right now my Olympic team picks are Bradie, Mirai and Ashley
Karen is definitely still in the mix as is Mariah

It’s more wide open than ever

 

[vesperholly]

ETA: To those who think Ashley withdrew because of Bradie's score, she skated after Mariah Bell last year (Mariah went 8th, Ashley 10th) when Bell had scored a 130.

http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1617/gpusa2016/SEG004.HTM

Yeah, but Ashley had won the SP and was ahead by 2 points going into the FS. Here she was 6th and basically had to be both perfect and lucky.

I don't think that's why she withdrew, though. She was in a similar hole at Skate Canada and still did the FS. I can just see how it looks a tiny, tiny bit suspect.

 

[Eeyora1]

Yeah, it’s funny how Johnny and Tara, ESPECIALLY sister Weir sat their asses up there insinuating that Ashley was being more theatrical than injured. You would think that the girl with the bionic hip and the guy who couldn’t complete a free skate because he caught his blade on the board would STFU and roll with her being injured. Also, Ashley doesn’t have to be in pieces for her to determine completing the program isn’t worth it. Nationals and olympics is the goal. Not Skate America or the Grand Prix Final.

Maybe he was speaking from his own experience

I thought they were both overly critical. Especially after Tara calling her “the best technician”
Ashley has mentioned in the past that Tara’s comments have hurt her in the past.

I for hope if she doesn’t make the Team Ashley joins the NBC team as a commentator.

 

[Wyliefan]

Ashley has mentioned in the past that Tara’s comments have hurt her in the past.

That's a shame, since Ashley has always said she looked up to Tara. And didn't Tara mentor her at one point?

 

[NAOTMAA]

The big if with Ashley is "if the international judges dump her on PCS". The other three are getting their personal bests with PCS in the 7-8 range.

but EVERYBODY seems to be getting their personal bests this season

its an Olympic season and the judges are going mad crazy with the marks in all disciplines

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

I hope my girl Ashley heals in time for Nationals. I do think her injury impacted her short program because she seemed not like herself.

Right now my Olympic team picks are Bradie, Mirai and Ashley
Karen is definitely still in the mix as is Mariah

It’s more wide open than ever

Isn't it a shame Gracie aint here? She wouldn't have to be perfect to be on the Oly team. That would take some pressure off...knowing there are no favorites (well, except Bradie, tee-hee). Hope she's doing well.

 

[Seerek]

Bradie's technique is very good and is not the issue. Her artistry and choreography is. She could be so much better in that department. Brown seems to be the king of flinging and flailing arms. I disliked his choreography intensely on Gracie and again on Bradie.

Benoit Richaud is credited with the long program for Bradie Tennell - that footwork sequence has Richaud's stamp all over it (even if it seems out of place with the overall composition).

 

[Eeyora1]

That's a shame, since Ashley has always said she looked up to Tara. And didn't Tara mentor her at one point?

Yes, leading up to the 2010 Olympics. Tara was assigned as her mentor!

 

[mtnskater]

Benoit Richaud is credited with the long program for Bradie Tennell - that footwork sequence has Richaud's stamp all over it (even if it seems out of place with the overall composition).

Actually my post that you quoted was made in response to the short program. That program was choreographed by Brown. But I must admit the long program looked like Brown's work to me...and he was sitting next to Bradie in the K&C. What other programs/skaters has Benoit R. choreographed? Anyway, I hope Bradie moves on from him next year too.

 

[NAOTMAA]

Moving on from the Ashley saga for a second but Karen.........

I know the constant changing of programs is clearly not helpful but at this point I feel like its being used as a scapegoat excuse for the urs and wrong edges that she keeps getting dinged for. At least that's the vibe I got when watching the SA broadcasts. They were acting like if she had one SP/LP program and stuck with them the urs and wrong edges would magically disappear. Never mind the fact that outside of her national title and fourth place finish at worlds her competitive record is wildly inconsistent