Which 4 men will make the 2019 GPF in addition to Chen & Hanyu?

[Sylvia]

Standings after the first 3 events: http://www.isuresults.com/events/gp2019/gpsmen.htm

Feel free to use this thread for GP discussion of the men as well.

 

[tony]

It’s wide open this year. Exciting!

Messing and Tanaka have a huge opportunity this week to both get themselves in to the Final. Tanaka with a silver would be looking pretty good, while Messing most likely needs the gold- but it’s not out of the question with this field.

Samarin, Nguyen (both 13) and Aliev (11) are in Russia, but Uno and/or Brezina can rebound and play big spoilers. Aliev needs 1st or second but Nguyen/Samarin finishing in the other two positions might be enough for all three to get in.

Brown and Aymoz will be likely to be battling for silver in Japan behind Hanyu, and by that point I have a feeling Jason will need another silver or his 2+3 won’t be enough to make it. Aymoz would probably need a lot of help from China and Russia spoilers to get in even with a silver.

I’m going to guess Tanaka, Samarin, Aliev, and Brown. But seriously, it could be any of the 7.

 

[Erin]

Tanaka with a silver would be looking pretty good,


Brown and Aymoz will be likely to be battling for silver in Japan behind Hanyu, and by that point I have a feeling Jason will need another silver or his 2+3 won’t be enough to make it. Aymoz would probably need a lot of help from China and Russia spoilers to get in even with a silver.

Aymoz has a higher score from IdF than Tanaka from Skate Canada, so I would say that his chances with a silver are at least as good as Tanaka's with a silver. Also, if Aymoz comes second with Brown third at NHK, Aymoz only needs to beat Brown by about half a point to get the tiebreaker.

None of these guys seem to be terribly consistent though, so I agree that it's wide open. Uno and Jin could certainly play spoiler.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

2 Russians, a frenchman and Jason .

 

[love_skate2011]

Brown skating in Japan never works out. check out his Japan outings through out the years

 

[tony]

Aymoz has a higher score from IdF than Tanaka from Skate Canada, so I would say that his chances with a silver are at least as good as Tanaka's with a silver. Also, if Aymoz comes second with Brown third at NHK, Aymoz only needs to beat Brown by about half a point to get the tiebreaker.

None of these guys seem to be terribly consistent though, so I agree that it's wide open. Uno and Jin could certainly play spoiler.

If either Messing or Tanaka wins this week, that person is in for sure. So we likely have three spots filled. Jin could be the total spoiler but there’s not a ton of other options in this field.

If the results of Russia are Aliev in first or second, Samarin/Nguyen first through a solid third, all three could get in. Aliev probably needs top 2 for sure though. All three are wildly inconsistent and there are others that can push them off the podium with decent outings so this for me is the big ??? event.

It will really complicate things if Aymoz is 2nd and Brown 3rd in Japan. A bunch of possible 2+3 results. But yes, since Aymoz is so close to Brown in his point total, a silver for Kevin would most likely mean he’d beat Jason in a tie-break. Comes down to who wins this week and if the order of finish in Russia benefits all three of the aforementioned men.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Brown skating in Japan never works out. check out his Japan outings through out the years

Yep, but he is dieing to showcase this free of his so I say he gets silver. (After Hanyu).

 

[Jonas]

With a win this week, I think Camden Pulkinen can also play the role of big spoiler for some of the other guys, if not sneak into the Final himself! I think he's got as good a chance of winning in China than Messing does.

Add In Matteo Rizzo as another who could play spoiler. I actually had him as one of the guys who could qualify for the Final (in his home country!) this year.

Your thoughts...

 

[rfisher]

I'm amused that Samarin, who everybody but @Jeschke claims to dislike, is favored over Aliev to make the final. Personally, I think it could go either way, but the difference is making me laugh. There must be a bunch of closet Samarin fans.

 

[Sylvia]

Or it could just be because Samarin has a silver and will compete at Rostelecom.

 

[Jeschke]

I'm amused that Samarin, who everybody but @Jeschke claims to dislike, is favored over Aliev to make the final. Personally, I think it could go either way, but the difference is making me laugh. There must be a bunch of closet Samarin fans.

Well, to be fair it's not a popularity poll!
I guess the posters in here are just aware of the potential of our boy!

 

[pollyanna]

I picked Samarin and I'm definitely not a fan. Title of the thread is who will make the GPF, not who are you a fan of.

 

[Sylvia]

@Jeschke, who's your 'Other' vote for?

I'm happy to see every option now has at least one vote!

 

[Jeschke]

@Jeschke, who's your 'Other' vote for?

Well, I had no one in mind. That vote only came up as I took a look on the -armada in the poll

 

[rfisher]

I think both Samarin and Aliev can make it or both can bomb in epic fashion. Or one or the other. Aliev can be brilliant if he stays on his feet and Samarin has an uncanny ability to do so when others are falling all around him. If those others are skating well, he can also go down in flames. Men are really totally unpredictable this year. Hanyu has to stay healthy and that's always a risk for him.

 

[Sylvia]

With a win this week, I think Camden Pulkinen can also play the role of big spoiler for some of the other guys, if not sneak into the Final himself! I think he's got as good a chance of winning in China than Messing does.

Bold opinions!

Add In Matteo Rizzo as another who could play spoiler. I actually had him as one of the guys who could qualify for the Final (in his home country!) this year.

You were not alone in that thought.

Good to see you posting again, @Jonas!

 

[Dobre]

I look at this list & I just think, "Go Jin!" this weekend.


I also think Aliev looks pretty good right now though.

 

[Vash01]

I don't think Samarin is that consistent but we will see. I still picked him because of his silver.

 

[AxelAnnie]

Actually, I think it will be me. Now.....I am a female and don't skate (although my grandchildren think it is rather amazing that I can skate backward).....but I think it might be outstanding................something new and innovative!

 

[Sylvia]

Standings are updated after Rostelcom Cup: http://www.isuresults.com/events/gp2019/gpsmen.htm

 

[Sylvia]

1 Nathan CHEN USA 15 (299.09) + 15 (297.16) = 30 (596.25)
2 Alexander SAMARIN RUS 13 (265.10) + 15 (264.45) = 28 (529.55)
3 Dmitri ALIEV RUS 11 (253.55) + 13 (259.88) = 24 (513.43)

Boyang JIN CHN 5 (224.98) + 15 (261.53) = 20 (486.51)
Nam NGUYEN CAN 13 (262.77) + 7 (246.20) = 20 (508.97)

At NHK:
Yuzuru HANYU JPN 15 (322.59)
Jason BROWN USA 13 (255.09)
Kevin AYMOZ FRA 11 (254.64)
Makar IGNATOV RUS 11 (252.87)

Potential spoiler?
Sota YAMAMOTO (his only GP)

 

[Sylvia]

Jason is less than 5 points from 4th place after the SP so he still has a good shot at qualifying (with Hanyu and Aymoz) as long as he can pull up to at least 4th overall.

 

[SkateFanBerlin]

^^Ignatov who I knew nothing about until a week ago could get in there. When done his jumping elements are lovely. A 3A or two and a couple 4's and his tech score could really climb. Meanwhile I'm hoping for Jason who had, I think, the roughest skate since moving to seniors.

 

[nimi]

Meanwhile I'm hoping for Jason who had, I think, the roughest skate since moving to seniors.

Yeah, Hersh tweeted that this was Jason's lowest score since 2013 jr worlds

 

[Sylvia]

^^Ignatov who I knew nothing about until a week ago could get in there.

Assuming Hanyu & Aymoz finish 1-2 as expected, Ignatov can get in if he pulls up to 3rd (22 points) and Jason is 5th (20 points). Then Boyang Jin would be 1st alternate (wins 20 point tiebreaker with a gold).

 

[Dobre]

And the final slot goes to . . . Jin! Never count out a guy with a chance at a win. Nine times out of ten they seem to get in.

 

[nimi]

And the final slot goes to . . . Jin! Never count out a guy with a chance at a win. Nine times out of ten they seem to get in.

It seems like Boyang himself wasn't quite expecting this turn of events...

BoyangJinfanpage on Twitter

“#BoyangJin 191123 *The weibo is updated before we have the entry list of GPF "This week’s practice was a bit exhausted. Maybe I will make a vlog later, do u like it?" *After we got the list😂 Boyang: "OK I won’t do that." COC official: "Go get your visa!" #ボーヤン #金博洋”

twitter.com

Also, I've lost count how many times I've watched this 2 second clip of Kevin realizing he made it. He's too darn cute!

CBC Olympics on Twitter

“Check out the (very brief) moment France's @kevin_aym realized he finished on the podium at #NHKTrophy AND made the #GPFinal 😲 https://t.co/mXkJVltIWg https://t.co/8w4ey0HaPX”

twitter.com

 

[Sylvia]

After NHK Trophy: http://www.isuresults.com/events/gp2019/gpsmen.htm

1	Yuzuru HANYU	JPN		15				15	30	1	627.64	2	408.70	212.99	218.94	24	Q
2	Nathan CHEN	USA	15		15				30	1	596.25	2	391.06	196.38	205.19	23	Q
3	Alexander SAMARIN	RUS			13		15		28	1	529.55	2	338.26	171.64	191.29	22	Q
4	Dmitri ALIEV	RUS	11				13		24	2	513.43	2	326.22	169.24	187.21	23	Q
5	Kevin AYMOZ	FRA			11			13	24	2	504.66	2	330.69	172.14	173.97	23	Q
6	Boyang JIN	CHN	5			15			20	1	486.51	2	326.52	176.10	159.99	24	Q
7	Nam NGUYEN	CAN		13			7		20	2	508.97	2	337.88	178.69	171.09	23	S
8	Jason BROWN	USA	13					7	20	2	486.36	2	329.18	171.64	157.18	24	S
9	Keiji TANAKA	JPN		11		7			18	3	483.64	2	328.89	169.91	154.75	24	S