Hmmmmmm... So, I've had a working theory, for a couple weeks now, since the Nebelhorn assignments came out and the Denis Ten Memorial assignments feel like things are leading to the outcome I theorized. I'm going to lay out the basis of my theory here - feel free to argue or debunk it!
1) Lake Placid IDI results - Flores/Desyatov were the clear winners of the teams vying for the SkAm host TBD spot.
2) Challenger assignments - usually the teams with earlier GP assignments or who look ready for competition get either Lombardia or Nebelhorn.
3) We got confirmation around Champs Camp that Parsons has had a pretty significant injury recovery period this spring/summer; and that Emily Bratti is in a walking boot and while she & Ian did show their programs during the monitoring sessions, they didn't skate in the Summer Sizzler.
4) Chock/Bates have been invited to compete at Shanghai Trophy - which is a perfectly good, low pressure warm-up event pre-SkAm should they accept the invitation from the organizers. It's not a Challenger but ChoBat (and GilPoir) have proven you don't necessarily need a pre-GP Challenger to still be very successful in ID if you're already a world medalist.
So, let's take review the GP assignments again and their pre-GP internationals (excluding LPIDI):
SkAm - Chock/Bates (Shanghai Trophy), Neset/Markelov (Lombardia), TBD
SCI - Bratti/Somerville (nothing), Browns (Denis Ten), Zingas/Kolesnik (Nebelhorn)
GPdF - BraSom (nothing), NesMark (Lombardia), Pate/Bye (nothing yet)
NHK - Carreira/Ponomarenko (Nebelhorn), ChoBat (Shanghai), Green/Parsons (nothing yet)
Finlandia - Browns (Denis Ten), PateBye (nothing yet), ZingKol (Nebelhorn)
CoC - CarPon (Nebelhorn), GreenP (nothing yet)
Another way of looking at the list above - teams by order of GP appearance:
ChoBat - week 1 - Shanghai - 2 weeks prior to SkAm
NesMark - week 1 - Lombardia - 5 weeks prior to SkAm
BraSom - week 2 - nothing yet
Browns - week 2 - Denis Ten - 3 weeks prior to SCI
ZingKol - week 2 - Nebelhorn - 5 weeks prior to SCI
PateBye - week 3 - nothing yet - probably Budapest 3 weeks prior to GPdF
CarPon - week 4 - Nebelhorn - 7 weeks prior to SCI (could wind up with a 2nd Challenger closer to NHK)
GreenP - week 4 - nothing yet - either Budapest or Metropole Nice (4 and 3 weeks prior to NHK respectively)
Non-GP teams assigned to Challengers so far:
Morozov/Chen - Lombardia (5 weeks prior to SkAm)
Flores/Desyatov - Denis Ten (2 weeks prior to SkAm)
So, here's the 5th fact/information piece that is fueling my working theory:
5) Flores/Desyatov are sitting in 1st position on the GP Alternates List with ZERO GP assignments - and not likely to get any unless it's a SkAm host TBD spot, CoC (only 2 US teams), or a US team withdraws from their GP assignments.
My working theory at the moment - the USFS is waiting, in part, to decide the SkAm host TBD spot until they know whether or not BraSom are going to be healed in time for SCI & GPdF. With their two GP assignments back-to-back, the likelihood of them WDing from one instead of both is pretty low, IMO. If they do WD from their GPs then FlorDes will get their assignments since they're currently in 1st position on the GP Alternates list.
Now, of course, the GP Alternates list COULD change, certainly, as we've learned this week - Challenger medalists get added to the GP Alternates List or moved up with an improved score. But the chances of that happening are, IMO, also pretty low.
Lombardia is pretty light on top-level teams with two GPs already (GuiFab & NesMark) so, theoretically, a bronze medal there could help a team (Soucisse/Firus, Ignateva/Szemko, Lagouge/Caffa, Dozzi/Papetti & Morozov/Chen seem the most likely contenders) but there's still a pretty big gap between the 23-24 SB of those teams and FlorDes.
Nebelhorn has a half dozen teams with two GPs already (LajLag, FearGib, ZingKol, CarPon, SmaDie, Taschlers) so the chances of some other team getting on the podium and pushing FlorDes out of the 1st GP Alternate position is non-existent.
Denis Ten is another Challenger with a half dozen teams who have two GPs already, plus FlorDes, and then another 3 teams that have 1 GP already and are right behind FlorDes on the GP Alternates list.
I think, had BraSom been assigned to Denis Ten, I'd have dismissed my theory but their absence from the entry lists of the first three Challengers and the fact that their GPs are back-to-back in the first half makes me believe they're probably going to wind up withdrawing and FlorDes will be the beneficiaries of that by virtue of being in the 1st GP Alternate position. And, of course, that leaves the USFS free to assign that SkAm host TBD spot to Morozov/Chen.
Thoughts?
www.instagram.com
