UPDATED And The Quad Axel Pursuit ENDS: Malinin!

[A.H.Black]

If history is worth anything - the 4 axel will not be landed until several skaters have tried it. My bet is neither Jin or Hanyu will be the first AND it won't be this year. Mind you, I'm not a gambler.

 

[sk9tingfan]

You could be right. What is concerning is the potential damage that may occur in the process.

 

[Japanfan]

It seems short term glory is far more important than long term health.

For starters, Lipinski could give them a talk about her hip surgery.

The short-term glory of being the first man to land a Quad Axel would last a lifetime and certainly be a mark of distinction.

Many athletes, particularly those we remember, push boundaries. Being an elite athlete comes with the risk of injury.

Lipinksi could give them a talk about her hip surgery - would she say that she would have given up the OGM to have avoided it?

 

[starrynight]

Hanyu is fine.

It’s not correct to try to compare him to the 14/15 year old girls who risk being competitive for a single season. There’s no similarities at all.

I don’t see how any discussion of short term success could be applied to Hanyus long career and back to back Olympic gold medals.

 

[antmanb]

His fans span all age ranges, actually.


I'm pretty sure she'd tell him it was worth it. Hasn't she said things like that in interviews? She's certainly implied it before.

Also people have surgery for all sorts of things all the time. It's hardly like Lipinski is wheelchair bound, or can't walk properly. She got injured, she had surgery, she's no longer injured.

 

[skatesindreams]

It's hardly like Lipinski is wheelchair bound, or can't walk properly. She got injured, she had surgery, she's no longer injured.

We don't really know what the "consequences" were/are.

 

[antmanb]

We don't really know what the "consequences" were/are.

I think we pretty much do by now - she had surgery what 20 years ago? If there were issues from that they'd have shown themselves by now.

 

[Carolla5501]

We don't really know what the "consequences" were/are.

Well I have seen her hiking around Nationals in shoes that would make me fall and break my neck so my bet is her legs work

She's not the only skater to have had hip surgery so I am not sure why she's the "poster child' for "don't do a Quad Axel". Heck look at Nathan..

 

[Audrey177]

i hope hanyu doesnt get injured trying this quad axels. its not worth it. hes still king no matter what

 

[Fairuza]

I think Hanyu's got it this time.

I wouldn’t be so sure by the way his practice is going right now.

 

[Sasha'sSpins]

I wouldn’t be so sure by the way his practice is going right now.

Well I was going by reports that he's landing them well. I haven't seen any of his practices, but I hope he can avoid injury.

 

[tafattsbarn]

I wouldn’t be so sure by the way his practice is going right now.

Well, there you go. New world record in the bag c:

 

[Fairuza]

Well, there you go. New world record in the bag c:

Frankly? I am relieved and happy. But there’s his FP to follow. Which he has been practising for the whole of two weeks so far. Stay with us.

 

[caseyedwards]

Chen unbeatable!!! Hanyu doesn’t want to be a loser. He wants to be a winner. He needs quad axel

 

[Sasha'sSpins]

I wouldn’t be so sure by the way his practice is going right now.

Welp - he won 4CC's, albeit with a flawed FS. But I was right. He got it this time.

 

[Carolla5501]

Welp - he won 4CC's, albeit with a flawed FS. But I was right. He got it this time.

Considering the competition if he hadn't gotten it this time I would have been beyond shocked. But unless he gets "help" from his competition that skate won't win Worlds on it's on.

 

[euterpe]

Nobody knows about the state of Lipinski's hip. IIRC, she missed lot of SOI shows because of hip pain. Because she returned too soon after surgery to SOI, she had developed arthritis in her hip, and the cold, moist environment of the rink exacerbated the pain. Soon she retired from FS and tried for years to make a career as an actress. When that didn't pan out, she became a FS commentator.

A couple of years ago (around the '18 Olympics), she talked on air about getting back on the ice, and there was a flurry of videos showing her skating. Then that abruptly stopped, and she never mentioned her return to skating again. I guess the pain returned when she started training.

 

[attyfan]

IMO, there should be a big difference between setting a value judgment (i.e., the injury was/was not "worth it") and explaining what might be expected (i.e., "you can't do ..... for ..... until you heal ..." or "it will hurt when you ....") so that Hanyu might have additional information before he decides that the risk of injury in pursuing a quad axel is "worth it" or not.

 

[Sasha'sSpins]

Considering the competition if he hadn't gotten it this time I would have been beyond shocked. But unless he gets "help" from his competition that skate won't win Worlds on it's on.

True, especially if Nathan hits.

 

[Carolla5501]

Nobody knows about the state of Lipinski's hip. IIRC, she missed lot of SOI shows because of hip pain. Because she returned too soon after surgery to SOI, she had developed arthritis in her hip, and the cold, moist environment of the rink exacerbated the pain. Soon she retired from FS and tried for years to make a career as an actress. When that didn't pan out, she became a FS commentator.

A couple of years ago (around the '18 Olympics), she talked on air about getting back on the ice, and there was a flurry of videos showing her skating. Then that abruptly stopped, and she never mentioned her return to skating again. I guess the pain returned when she started training.

For all you know she realized she didn’t want to put the time in to get her jumps back, there was pain, there wasn’t pain, She realized she could make more money criticizing others then she could skating? There’s a whole variety of reasons she could have decided not to pursue skating. Maybe you should not assume without any real information

 

[DreamSkates]

How many more points will Hanyu get for doing a 4A? Enough to rival or beat Chen?

 

[DreamSkates]

For all you know she realized she didn’t want to put the time in to get her jumps back, there was pain, there wasn’t pain, She realized she could make more money criticizing others then she could skating? There’s a whole variety of reasons she could have decided not to pursue skating. Maybe you should not assume without any real information

I remember reading on her website at that time, that she had a chronic condition (that mean ongoing and not likely curable). Then it was taken off her website.

 

[Japanfan]

How many more points will Hanyu get for doing a 4A? Enough to rival or beat Chen?

I don't know the math, but think it's fair to surmise that Hanyu is going to need that 4A to beat Chen. Though will he land it on his first attempt to do so in competition (SFAIK)?

 

[acraven]

How many more points will Hanyu get for doing a 4A? Enough to rival or beat Chen?

It won't make that much difference. A 4A is only worth 1 point more than a 4Z at base value. If both jumps get GOEs of 3, the difference is about 1.5 points in total. That difference is totally swamped by the points you can gain with better entries and exits to the jumps or by replacing one triple jump in your program with a quad. There's a big swing on each quad if one skater lands the jump with lovely run out and the other one is just a bit off (though fully rotated). If that happens on three jumping passes, the difference is huge.

Of course, it's likely that the first 4A landed in competition will get a somewhat better GOE than it actually deserves according to the judging guidelines, and there could be a bit of positive impact on the skater's PCS, but that's still not a lot of extra points.

 

[antmanb]

It won't make that much difference. A 4A is only worth 1 point more than a 4Z at base value. If both jumps get GOEs of 3, the difference is about 1.5 points in total. That difference is totally swamped by the points you can gain with better entries and exits to the jumps or by replacing one triple jump in your program with a quad. There's a big swing on each quad if one skater lands the jump with lovely run out and the other one is just a bit off (though fully rotated). If that happens on three jumping passes, the difference is huge.

Of course, it's likely that the first 4A landed in competition will get a somewhat better GOE than it actually deserves according to the judging guidelines, and there could be a bit of positive impact on the skater's PCS, but that's still not a lot of extra points.

Let's be honest, if it's Hanyu landing that 4A the judges will be pressing +5 unless there is an obvious error.

 

[LarrySK8]

Hanyu taking on the 4 axel seems eerily familiar to Mao Asada taking on the 3 axel. It is to cover weakness in the quads that Chen has, but Hanyu doesn't have (lutz, flip); and Mao did it to cover weaknesses in her triples (flutz, toe-axels; UR 3 loops) that Kim had.

 

[screech]

Let's be honest, if it's Hanyu landing that 4A the judges will be pressing +5 unless there is an obvious error.

And in that case he'll get +3 and +4s instead, whereas Jin would get -3 and -4 for the exact same mistake.

 

[Fairuza]

I love the idea of setting GOE to a jump which hasn’t been tried yet.

 

[Foolhardy Ham Lint]

Sonja Henie had a quadruple axel, but felt she never needed to compete it.

Dazzling audiences with her running toe work was more than enough to win.

 

[bardtoob]

Is this real? I have my doubts

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