U.S. Pairs 2019-20 season - News & Updates, Part X

PairSkater12345 said:
I think it's really interesting that Ashley and Tim aren't even on the alternate list for four continents.
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I don't know that it's a mystery. They're likely taking the time to work on the lifts we've referenced earlier .... making changes to make them more comfortable prior to Montreal. A pair can fall on a toe, and not get buried in the standings; missing a lift, as you know, not so much .... As to the rest of the discussion, C-G & L were assigned worlds based on the three-tier criteria set up by USFS; I hardly know what else the selection committee could or would do. As we discussed earlier, all of the top U.S. pairs save C & J have had many seasons to distinguish themselves. Their injuries, coaching changes, various issues with elements opened the door for internal politics or -- and it's the same thing -- perceived internal politics.
 
nylynnr said:
I don't know that it's a mystery. They're likely taking the time to work on the lifts we've referenced earlier .... making changes to make them more comfortable prior to Montreal. A pair can fall on a toe, and not get buried in the standings; missing a lift, as you know, not so much .... As to the rest of the discussion, C-G & L were assigned worlds based on the three-tier criteria set up by USFS; I hardly know what else the selection committee could or would do. As we discussed earlier, all of the top U.S. pairs save C & J have had many seasons to distinguish themselves. Their injuries, coaching changes, various issues with elements opened the door for internal politics or -- and it's the same thing -- perceived internal politics.
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You make some good points.
 
Ummm, I found some intelligent conversation about 2020 U.S. Nationals to add to the more judicious and perceptive offerings here by actual U.S. pairs fans who are regulars in this thread and not trolls:

youtu.be

2020 US Figure Skating Championships Recap: Erin & Justin

A recap of the 2020 US National Figure Skating Championships by Erin & Justin. #USChamps20 The following skaters were discussed: Alysa Liu Mariah Bell Bradie...
youtu.be youtu.be

Justin Laem is a passionate figure skating fan who always offers intelligent dialogue via his Youtube account. At about 31:56 in the above video clip, Justin indicates he ran into Deanna Stellato in Mississauga and she responded to his query about how she ended up skating pairs with Maxime Deschamps in Canada. Take a listen...

I'm not familiar with Justin's guest, Erin, but she discusses the possible ways U.S. fed might go with the selection assignments (they recorded this video prior to assignments being announced). Very perceptive and objective commentary, albeit that Erin doesn't realize Timothy was a pairs skater before he partnered with Ashley nearly 4 years ago.

As we know, Ashley also competed in singles for many years, and Timothy was formerly a singles competitor too. Famously, they both landed on the pairs podium at Nationals as juniors in 2011, with other partners. Timothy had taken about two years off after his split with Dee Dee Leng (who had briefly partnered with Simon Shnapir before retiring). Timothy's tryout with Shnapir's former partner, Marissa Castelli, bore no fruit so he performed on cruise ships and saved a bit of money prior to fortuitously returning to the competitive arena with Ashley Cain.

Erin makes an astute observation that Ash/Timothy have a higher base value on some of their elements, compared to a few other top U.S. pairs teams. Albeit that having a higher base value means you need to successfully complete your elements. I agree with Erin that Ash/Timothy should consider going with a different throw than the one they've been struggling with this season.
 
aftershocks said:
Ummm, I found some intelligent conversation about 2020 U.S. Nationals to add to the more judicious and perceptive offerings here by actual U.S. pairs fans who are regulars in this thread and not trolls:

youtu.be

2020 US Figure Skating Championships Recap: Erin & Justin

A recap of the 2020 US National Figure Skating Championships by Erin & Justin. #USChamps20 The following skaters were discussed: Alysa Liu Mariah Bell Bradie...
youtu.be youtu.be

Justin Laem is a passionate figure skating fan who always offers intelligent dialogue via his Youtube account. At about 31:56 in the above video clip, Justin indicates he ran into Deanna Stellato in Mississauga and she responded to his query about how she ended up skating pairs with Maxime Deschamps in Canada. Take a listen...

I'm not familiar with Justin's guest, Erin, but she discusses the possible ways U.S. fed might go with the selection assignments (they recorded this video prior to assignments being announced). Very perceptive and objective commentary, albeit that Erin doesn't realize Timothy was a pairs skater before he partnered with Ashley nearly 4 years ago.

As we know, Ashley also competed in singles for many years, and Timothy was formerly a singles competitor too. Famously, they both landed on the pairs podium at Nationals as juniors in 2011, with other partners. Timothy had taken about two years off after his split with Dee Dee Leng (who had briefly partnered with Simon Shnapir before retiring). Timothy's tryout with Shnapir's former partner, Marissa Castelli, bore no fruit so he performed on cruise ships and saved a bit of money prior to fortuitously returning to the competitive arena with Ashley Cain.

Erin makes an astute observation that Ash/Timothy have a higher base value on some of their elements, compared to a few other top U.S. pairs teams. Albeit that having a higher base value means you need to successfully complete your elements. I agree with Erin that Ash/Timothy should consider going with a different throw than the one they've been struggling with this season.
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Shocks be nice now like Jayar suggested. remember "My mission in life is not merely to survive, but to thrive; and to do so with passion, compassion, humor and style."
 
PairSkater12345 said:
I totally agree. Makes a big statement when Ashley and Tim aren't even on the alternate list. Ashley and Tim are no where ready. Why didn't the selection committee do the same with the Kinerims?
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Because the knierims earned both assignments and probably wanted to let them decide what to do. They probably wanted to give the other three teams an assignment as well so since there were only three spots available they had to split them.
 
aftershocks said:
...No jokes. I want my Calalang/Johnson U.S. Nats fp uploaded by NBC, AND I WANT IT NOW!! :soapbox:
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:( Still no first place fp by C/J has been uploaded to Youtube by NBC, yet we get Kayne/O'Shea's sp and the free programs of other second place finishers. :duh:
 
pairskatingfan said:
USFS probably wants Ashley and tim to spend time between now and worlds to be more prepared than they were at nationals
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I still think they were offered it -- either outright or as an alternate -- and turned it down. If they didn't turn it down, I think USFS would have made them an alternate.

I am one of the few that has no issue with C&J being passed over for Worlds, btw. The two times I've seen them skate live, they fell on almost everything. I don't think they are consistent at all. So I can see USFS being worried about losing another Pairs slot.

What I have an issue with is sending C-G&L to Worlds over K&O. I don't see either team as having a better BOW of work than the other so therefore there is no reason not to go with Nationals results in picking who should go instead of C&J.

But, really, I never complain when they go by the results at Nationals so I wouldn't be upset if USFS had picked C&J instead. Either C&J or K&O would be okay with me. It's C-G&L who are just a big "WTF were they thinking?" for me.
 
MacMadame said:
What I have an issue with is sending C-G&L to Worlds over K&O. I don't see either team as having a better BOW of work than the other so therefore there is no reason not to go with Nationals results in picking who should go instead of C&J.
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Here is the breakdown of BOW used by selection committee:

Tier 1: Placements at 2020 US Champs -- K & O 3rd; C-G & L 4th. Placements at 2019 Worlds: C-G & L 9th.

Tier 2: 2019/2020 Grand Prix -- C-G & L 4th & 5th placements; K & O two 6th places.

Tier 3: Challengers -- C-G & L two wins; K & O 4th, 2nd placements

Using this criteria, C-G & L have a BOW advantage over K & O. They also have the nod over C & J.

I sound like a broken record, but since USFS assembled this criteria, the choice was plain. That is not to say everyone has to agree with the criteria used -- not sure I do -- or that it can't be changed at some point.

In order to be considered for worlds over C-G & L, K & O could not just point to their 3rd place in Greensboro. They would have had to have had better results this fall on the Grand Prix and Challenger Series.
 
I think I would appreciate a formula with numbers or values or percentages given to the different tiers and how each placement is worth...like two placements higher and a higher GP placement in a head-to-Head which is both tier 1 and tier 2 wasn’t enough so it seems nothing would have been enough going into nationals and that seems weird for a team that isn’t having dominance. Like Tier 1 can be anywhere from 40% or more in terms of weight and there’s a difference between 40% and 50% and so on and so forth. Of course the problem with numbers is that you don’t have flexibility and discretion to adapt to unique circumstances.
 
Yes, K&O's strong results were last season prior to Nationals and also from the season before. I believe we assumed that was why they received the invite to 4CCs last year despite being 4th at U.S. Nationals. (Last year they came into Nationals with a 2nd and a 5th on the GP, a 4CC win, and a 2nd at the previous Nationals).
 
VGThuy said:
Of course the problem with numbers is that you don’t have flexibility and discretion to adapt to unique circumstances.
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I think this sentence says it all.

But under almost any reasonable weighting of tiers and events, C-G & L would get the nod over K & O, or C & J. They would not get the nod if the "old" method of adhering to U.S. Championships results, except in the case of injury petitions, was still in use. That method helped U.S. Championships really crackle with excitement.
 
nylynnr said:
I think this sentence says it all.

But under almost any reasonable weighting of tiers and events, C-G & L would get the nod over K & O, or C & J. They would not get the nod if the "old" method of adhering to U.S. Championships results, except in the case of injury petitions, was still in use. That method helped U.S. Championships really crackle with excitement.
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Would they though? C/J beat C-G/L at two head-to-heads with both of them on the first two tiers and the one on the first tier by two places.
 
VGThuy said:
Would they though? C/J beat C-G/L at two head-to-heads with both of them on the first two tiers and the one on the first tier by two places.
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I think, maybe, yes, although I could be missing something.

An even deeper dive (probably deeper than anyone wants!):

Tier 1: 2020 U.S. Champs, C & J 2nd vs. C-G & L 4th; 2019 worlds, C-G & L 9th

Tier 2: 2019/2020 GP series, C & J 4th & 6th places; C-G & L 4th & 5th -- also, 2019 Four Continents, C & L 4th

Tier 3: 2019/2020 Challenger Series, C & J 6th, 1st places; add in 2019 U.S. Champs 5th place; C-G & L Challenger Series, two 1st's; 2019 U.S. Champs 1st

Here are the criteria:

Tier 1 - 2020 U.S. Figure Skating Championships, 2019/2020 Grand Prix Final, 2019 World Figure Skating Championships.

Tier 2 - 2019/2020 Grand Prix Series competitions, 2019 Four Continents Figure Skating Championships, 2019 World Junior Figure Skating Championships.

Tier 3 - 2019 Challenger Series events and other senior international competitions; 2019 U.S. Figure Skating Championships; 2019 ISU Junior Grand Prix Final.

I think, in order to be named to the world team outright in Greensboro, C & J would have had to have landed their side-by-side salchows in the short. Everything else being equal, that would likely have given them the win.
 
nylynnr said:
Everything else being equal, that would likely have given them the win.
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Would have been close. Very, I think. Not sure if I did the math correctly, but I get a win by 0.01 when using their marks for the 3S from the free in place of their 3S from the short with the deduction.

Not that there is really any point to this revisionism. Calalang & Johnson missed the 3S in the short in every event they competed in this year except the Warsaw Cup where they fell on it in the free instead. Fingers crossed that Nationals will give them more confidence for 4CCs.
 
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nylynnr said:
Tier 1: Placements at 2020 US Champs -- K & O 3rd; C-G & L 4th. Placements at 2019 Worlds: C-G & L 9th.

Tier 2: 2019/2020 Grand Prix -- C-G & L 4th & 5th placements; K & O two 6th places.

Tier 3: Challengers -- C-G & L two wins; K & O 4th, 2nd placements
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But in the IJS world, should we be using placements, which depend on who shows up, or scores? I would certainly look at completed program content and scores and not just placements if I were on the committee.
 
MacMadame said:
I still think they were offered it -- either outright or as an alternate -- and turned it down. If they didn't turn it down, I think USFS would have made them an alternate.

I am one of the few that has no issue with C&J being passed over for Worlds, btw. The two times I've seen them skate live, they fell on almost everything. I don't think they are consistent at all. So I can see USFS being worried about losing another Pairs slot.

What I have an issue with is sending C-G&L to Worlds over K&O. I don't see either team as having a better BOW of work than the other so therefore there is no reason not to go with Nationals results in picking who should go instead of C&J.

But, really, I never complain when they go by the results at Nationals so I wouldn't be upset if USFS had picked C&J instead. Either C&J or K&O would be okay with me. It's C-G&L who are just a big "WTF were they thinking?" for me.
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I don’t think they were offered both 4cc and worlds.
 
Jayar said:
Can we please stop with the infighting?
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Reading some of the posts here, I swear a few of you are almost hoping that C-G/L fall all over their backsides at Worlds just so you can jump up and down and point and squeal "I WAS RIGHT!!!!!!"

I have no issue with the choices or how they were chosen. Good luck to both teams at Worlds.
 
MacMadame said:
But in the IJS world, should we be using placements, which depend on who shows up, or scores? I would certainly look at completed program content and scores and not just placements if I were on the committee.
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Either the members of the committee disagree with you and did not look at program content/scores; or, since each criteria listed in each tier carries equal weight, they did look at them, and they still decided to nominate C-G & L outright.

Maybe some members thought about world rankings. We could ponder it forever .... these are the criteria that USFS pretty much had to use, because they had been published and circulated to coaches and skaters.
 
MacMadame said:
But in the IJS world, should we be using placements, which depend on who shows up, or scores? I would certainly look at completed program content and scores and not just placements if I were on the committee.
Click to expand...

I believe they do look at scores. (That was stated during the Olympic season). The scores fall in Cain & Le Duc's favor.

Cain & Le Duc:
212.36--2019 Nationals
205.58--2019 U.S. Classic
199.43--2019 Golden Spin
197.12--2020 Nationals
196.82--2019 Four Continents
195.78--2019 Internationaux de France
193.81--2019 Worlds
177.54--2019 Skate America

Calalang & Johnson
213.57--2020 Nationals
191.46--2019 Warsaw Cup
183.36--2019 Nationals
181.54--2019 Skate Canada
180.52--2019 Skate America
166.50--2019 U.S. Classic
 
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