U.S. Pairs 2019-20 season - News & Updates, Part X

[olympic]

Heading into Nationals this week, here are the average mean scores internationally for top US pairs. I put in parentheses their trends:

1. CG/L - 194.58 [up; SA catastrophe, but recovered]
2. SK/K - 191.77 [down; best at Nebelhorn / worst at NHK / WD from GS]
3. D/F - 191.27 [even; 2 bronze medals on the GP w/ equivalent scoring]
4. K/O - 181.46 [up; strongest at GS w/ highest score]
5. C/J - 180.00 [up; won Warsaw Cup w/ highest score]
6. S/T - 161.14
7. L/M - 161.06

 

[PairSkater12345]

How much does this matter? Can you correlate from previous nationals?

 

[olympic]

How much does this matter? Can you correlate from previous nationals?

National judges are certainly going to sit up and take note of how the US pairs were judged internationally when they assess them this week, and it is an obvious concrete indicator of where they are. I didn’t correlate from past competitions but you can’t deny it’s a great indicator. I personally feel that how international judges assess a skater(s) trumps national judges

 

[PairSkater12345]

While Judges normally take note of how they did during the season, they shouldn't judge today by what they did in the past. Where they stand should be accessed after they finish their program. If what you say is true, that's a real problem. The competition should be judged on what you do that day not what you did yesterday or during the Grand Prix season.

 

[Sylvia]

Denney/Frazier article by Jean-Christophe Berlot (seems like they were interviewed at the GP in Grenoble and this was saved for publication before Nationals):

Haven Denney and Brandon Frazier: You Don’t Need to be Perfect to Believe in Yourself - U.S. Figure Skating Fan Zone

Don't think that believing in oneself can be taken for granted for athletes, even when they reach the level Denney and Frazier have reached this season. Believing

usfigureskatingfanzone.com

 

[olympic]

While Judges normally take note of how they did during the season, they shouldn't judge today by what they did in the past. Where they stand should be accessed after they finish their program. If what you say is true, that's a real problem. The competition should be judged on what you do that day not what you did yesterday or during the Grand Prix season.

Certainly any pair should be judged on what they show on the ice this week. However, it is less defining for purposes of being selected for Worlds now that the USFSA is looking at BOW, which goes to my point about their international scores

 

[chachacha]

Heading into Nationals this week, here are the average mean scores internationally for top US pairs. I put in parentheses their trends:

1. CG/L - 194.58 [up; SA catastrophe, but recovered]
2. SK/K - 191.77 [down; best at Nebelhorn / worst at NHK / WD from GS]
3. D/F - 191.27 [even; 2 bronze medals on the GP]]
4. K/O - 181.46 [up; strongest at GS]
5. C/J - 180.00 [up; won Warsaw Cup]
6. S/T - 161.14
7. L/M - 161.06

 

[PairSkater12345]

National judges are certainly going to sit up and take note of how the US pairs were judged internationally when they assess them this week, and it is an obvious concrete indicator of where they are. I didn’t correlate from past competitions but you can’t deny it’s a great indicator. I personally feel that how international judges assess a skater(s) trumps national judges

So their BOW is what matters for Worlds. If that's true D/F should automatically go based on the fact that they earned Two Bronze medals this year. Right? And C/L should go because they earned the highest average score for the year. So if the BOW is what matters why are all the other skaters competing at nationals?

 

[PairSkater12345]

So their BOW is what matters for Worlds. If that's true D/F should automatically go based on the fact that they earned Two Bronze medals this year. Right? And C/L should go because they earned the highest average score for the year. So if the BOW is what matters why are all the other skaters competing at nationals?

What does less defining mean?

 

[Dobre]

So their BOW is what matters for Worlds. If that's true D/F should automatically go based on the fact that they earned Two Bronze medals this year. Right? And C/L should go because they earned the highest average score for the year. So if the BOW is what matters why are all the other skaters competing at nationals?

Historically speaking, I'd say the U.S. pairs discipline is one of the most difficult to predict. We've sent all kinds of less-decorated teams to major events. Especially when there are two berths--and it isn't that uncommon for the less decorated of the two to outplace the U.S. Champion in major international competition. (It's not like there are a bunch of athletes with World medals or GPF medals in the mix here). After U.S. Nationals, the average scores will be different. After U.S. Nationals, everyone will have different placements to figure into the equation than they have right now. This is why--so often--the athletes who are selected for Worlds are not the ones everyone predicted the week before.

 

[aftershocks]

This is why--so often--the athletes who are selected for Worlds are not the ones everyone predicted the week before.

This can be said about most skaters in any discipline in any country. Figure skating can never be exactly pinned down, because ice is slippery. That's part of the excitement and the speculation, and the anticipation.

We can't know any of the outcomes for sure. So personally, that's one reason why I can't wait to watch.

 

[olympic]

So their BOW is what matters for Worlds. If that's true D/F should automatically go based on the fact that they earned Two Bronze medals this year. Right? And C/L should go because they earned the highest average score for the year. So if the BOW is what matters why are all the other skaters competing at nationals?

I should clarify. Nationals results are a key factor in determining the team, but not the only factor. Their BOW comes into play and offers a significant amount of criteria to the USFSA in determining who goes to Worlds. For the sake of argument, let's say that K/O and C/J [whom I love] have skates of their lives and go 1-2 at Nationals. I am sure that they would not automatically be named to the team because their BOW lags the other 3 pairs. The USFSA would probably look at where CG/L, SK/K and D/F placed or how close they were score-wise to 1-2, and make a further determination. The USFSA may pull a Russian Fed or Skate Canada and use 4CCs (Russia uses Euros) as a skate-off or further determinant. But, if CG/L, SK/K and D/F place 1-2-3 in any order at Nationals, I am certain that the USFSA would use the Nationals results to decide the World / 4CC teams because Nationals mirrors what was happening during the season anyway.

 

[maureenfarone]

It looks interesting, but it's a very short clip, so not easy to fully assess. The moves shown are of the currently popular innovative variety adopted from an ice dance aesthetic chiefly popularized by J/C's choreo in recent years, and by some of S/M's choreo (in both cases programs choreographed by former ice dancers).

I wonder if Charlie White choreographed the new short program? I believe he did the original one.

 

[PairSkater12345]

This can be said about most skaters in any discipline in any country. Figure skating can never be exactly pinned down, because ice is slippery. That's part of the excitement and the speculation, and the anticipation.

We can't know any of the outcomes for sure. So personally, that's one reason why I can't wait to watch.

The Operative word is Automatically. I think it's out of bounds to think K/O or C/J wouldn't go.

 

[Dobre]

The Operative word is Automatically. I think it's out of bounds to think K/O or C/J wouldn't go.

There are two berths. They may have more to prove than the other top teams, but if one of those teams won Nationals I think said team would have a good chance.

 

[PairSkater12345]

There are two berths. They may have more to prove than the other top teams, but if one of those teams won Nationals I think said team would have a good chance.

Agree two births. Historically the US pair teams that finish in line with the births go to worlds and the olympics. When Denny and Caughlin lost at nationals by a very thin margin to Zang and Bartholomy the latter went to the Olympics despite the significantly lower BOW. As a precedent (not to say it couldn't happen) it's very difficult to award Worlds to any team that does not finished 1 or 2.

There are no shoe in's for number 3 or 4 based on performances this year. No US Pairs team was dominant enough.

 

[Carolla5501]

Agree two births. Historically the US pair teams that finish in line with the births go to worlds and the olympics. When Denny and Caughlin lost at nationals by a very thin margin to Zang and Bartholomy the latter went to the Olympics despite the significantly lower BOW. As a precedent (not to say it couldn't happen) it's very difficult to award Worlds to any team that does not finished 1 or 2.

There are no shoe in's for number 3 or 4 based on performances this year. No US Pairs team was dominant enough.

And the logic escapes me... After all if we send the team in 4th with the great body of work we are guaranteed what.... NOTHING. Sorry but none of our pairs teams are standing on the podium so just send 1 and 2 and move on LOL! If your "BOW' included "Current World Champion" and you finish 4th, sure you get to go. (Heck if your name is Nathan Chen and you don't skate this week you get to go IMHO),but for our pairs??? No, it's just a chance to "send the teams we like" (They proved that by putting an injured team who had a HORRID Nationals and poor international season last year on the alternate list LOL!)

 

[AliasJohnDoe]

I like and appreciate the skills of the top 4 Pairs teams being talked about (C-G/L, S-K/K, D/F and K/O). But C/J have made some real improvements. I'm hoping they possibly make the podium this year. Love this team!

 

[PairSkater12345]

And the logic escapes me... After all if we send the team in 4th with the great body of work we are guaranteed what.... NOTHING. Sorry but none of our pairs teams are standing on the podium so just send 1 and 2 and move on LOL! If your "BOW' included "Current World Champion" and you finish 4th, sure you get to go. (Heck if your name is Nathan Chen and you don't skate this week you get to go IMHO),but for our pairs??? No, it's just a chance to "send the teams we like" (They proved that by putting an injured team who had a HORRID Nationals and poor international season last year on the alternate list LOL!)

Thank YOU! ITA!

 

[olympic]

There are two berths. They may have more to prove than the other top teams, but if one of those teams won Nationals I think said team would have a good chance.

Chance is the operative word, though. I don't think it would be 100%. Didn't the USFSA remove winning Nationals as an automatic berth to the Worlds? I think I read that in an explanatory post.

Agree two births. Historically the US pair teams that finish in line with the births go to worlds and the olympics. When Denny and Caughlin lost at nationals by a very thin margin to Zang and Bartholomy the latter went to the Olympics despite the significantly lower BOW. As a precedent (not to say it couldn't happen) it's very difficult to award Worlds to any team that does not finished 1 or 2.

There are no shoe in's for number 3 or 4 based on performances this year. No US Pairs team was dominant enough.

I don't think the USFSA put BOW into practice in 2014, at least not to the extent that they are now.

 

[PairSkater12345]

Chance is the operative word, though. I don't think it would be 100%. Didn't the USFSA remove winning Nationals as an automatic berth to the Worlds? I think I read that in an explanatory post.



I don't think the USFSA put BOW into practice in 2014, at least not to the extent that they are now.

Can you give me an example of a case where the US National pairs champions did not go to Worlds?

 

[olympic]

Can you give me an example of a case where the US National pairs champions did not go to Worlds?

I don't have an example of an age-eligible national champion not being sent Worlds, and I don't have to give you one to prove my point, but what did happen (I believe) was the USFSA no longer has committed to sending the National Champ to Worlds. That shows that there is some movement away from the be all and end all of Nationals determining the team.

 

[PairSkater12345]

I don't have an example of an age-eligible national champion not being sent Worlds, and I don't have to give you one to prove my point, but what did happen (I believe) was the USFSA no longer has committed to sending the National Champ to Worlds. That shows that there is some movement away from the be all and end all of Nationals determining the team.

Fair enough, The selection committee does have the option. My point is that there would be a big problem with not choosing the National Champions and you seem to indicate that it would be difficult for say K/O and C/J to get to worlds if they finished 1&2. While the BOW is an option and consideration the selection committee has only used it twice (Single skaters Ashley and Adam) Never in pairs. I don't think anyone killed it this year. No team qualified for the GPF. Should be interesting if the selection committee has to address the option.

 

[natsulian]

My ideal Top 6 would be:
1. Cain-Gribble / Leduc
2. Denney / Frazier
3. Calalang / Johnson
4. Kayne / O'Shea
5. Scimeca-Knierim / Knierim
6. Lu / Mitrofanov

Our US pairs have developed depth, character, consistency, and have improved dramatically leading up to 2022 Beijing. I cannot wait to see the talent develop and flourish. Best of luck to all.

 

[her grace]

While the BOW is an option and consideration the selection committee has only used it twice (Single skaters Ashley and Adam) Never in pairs.

They did use it in pairs in 2017 to take Scimeca/Knierim (W/D from nationals with injury) to Worlds instead of Castelli/Tran, the national silver medalists. Worse, they also ditched C/T that year for 4CC, where they sent the bronze medalists instead. They also used BOW last year in pairs for 4CC to skip Stellato/Bartholomay for the pewter medalists. Committee decisions instead of strict national placement is alive and well in pairs selections.

 

[PairSkater12345]

They did use it in pairs in 2017 to take Scimeca/Knierim (W/D from nationals with injury) to Worlds instead of Castelli/Tran, the national silver medalists. Worse, they also ditched C/T that year for 4CC, where they sent the bronze medalists instead. They also used BOW last year in pairs for 4CC to skip Stellato/Bartholomay for the pewter medalists. Committee decisions instead of strict national placement is alive and well in pairs selections.

Thanks for the info.

 

[Joubabe]

My ideal Top 6 would be:
1. Cain-Gribble / Leduc
2. Denney / Frazier
3. Calalang / Johnson
4. Kayne / O'Shea
5. Scimeca-Knierim / Knierim
6. Lu / Mitrofanov

Our US pairs have developed depth, character, consistency, and have improved dramatically leading up to 2022 Beijing. I cannot wait to see the talent develop and flourish. Best of luck to all.

My ideal top six would be:

1. Scimeca-Knierim/Knierim
2. Cain-Gribble/LeDuc
3. Denny/Frazier
4. Calalang/Johnson
5. Lu/Mitrofanov
6. Pfund/Santillan

 

[pairskatingfan]

My ideal top six would be:

1. Scimeca-Knierim/Knierim
2. Cain-Gribble/LeDuc
3. Denny/Frazier
4. Calalang/Johnson
5. Lu/Mitrofanov
6. Pfund/Santillan

Not a lot of love for Serifini/ Tran here I guess? I like them better than Lu/Mitrofanov, but I see them as heck and neck with Pfund/ Santillan. Still, Lu/ Mitrofanov tend to be pretty consistent

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

My ideal top six would be:

1. Scimeca-Knierim/Knierim
2. Cain-Gribble/LeDuc
3. Denny/Frazier
4. Calalang/Johnson
5. Lu/Mitrofanov
6. Pfund/Santillan

Me toooooo

Although the past few months I’d be happy with one and two being flip-flopped. I’m fine with either one getting the gold

Oh wait I see you have no mention of Tarah and Danny. Well I’m the same way with the previous programs. So generic... but I’m willing to give them the benefit of the doubt with whatever they’ve created since December…

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Omg check out Ashley’s Insta stories....

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She’s got Nina Mozer in the background while Timothy is hamming it up. I’m so curious about Nina. I think she would be a heck of a lot of fun. I would love to shoot some whiskey with her