U.S. Ladies [#30]: Cover Girls

[olympic]

^Thank you all for the quick replies. I am going to OCD this until September. LOL.

 

[olympic]

Top ladies at Nebelhorn outside of USA:

AUS - Craine
BLR - Safonova
FRA - ?? (unlikely Meite since she has a serious injury)
HKG - Yi Christy Leung
KAZ - Tursynbayeva
POL - Kurakova
SUI - Paganini

All US ladies have to do its beat out the likes of Craine or the 2nd best French lady.

Thanks for taking time to create a list.

Tursynbaeva is the biggest obstacle (really depends on her form these days). Kurakova and Paganini have scores in the 180 - 190 range. I think someone like Mariah could beat them on an average day at the job.

How many slots are available?

 

[shuilee]

6 slots are available. We'd need 6 from list above to beat out Mariah or Alysa.

 

[Karen-W]

I'd send Alysa. Let her get an early season comp as a senior in front of international judges. Word is she has the 3a back already.

 

[VGThuy]

I'd send Alysa. Let her get an early season comp as a senior in front of international judges. Word is she has the 3a back already.

I’d send her too. Liu needs a Zagitova-like world tour for her international senior debut.

 

[olympic]

6 slots are available. We'd need 6 from list above to beat out Mariah or Alysa.

OK, on a bad day, I could see Mariah in 4th which would be a bad skate, but good enough ... IDK about Amber. Are her Nationals performances a new trend? She did do well at 4CCs prior to the pandemic, but her craptacular skates in the past can be really BAD! If Alysa can rotate, I am OK but that is a wait-and-see.

 

[Coco]

Ideally, they will come up with an effective selection process for this Nebelhorn spot.

Our summer comps going to go ahead despite the crud? That would be the best way to do it. Make one of them the trial for Nebelhorn or just compare results across a few of them.

 

[Karen-W]

Ideally, they will come up with an effective selection process for this Nebelhorn spot.

Our summer comps going to go ahead despite the crud? That would be the best way to do it. Make one of them the trial for Nebelhorn or just compare results across a few of them.

More and more people are being vaccinated every day. I think that by the end of June we'll have enough of the country vaccinated that summer comps, even with limited/no attendance, are going to be manageable in many parts of the country.

 

[Rukia]

Dallas FSC has already held smaller competitions with strict rules/no audience, and Skate Dallas is already being planned for. I imagine many summer comps will be held (maybe even with some audiences if we can keep vaccination rates good).

 

[vesperholly]

I'd send Mariah, she's a much more seasoned competitor. Nebelhorn would be Alysa's senior international debut. Securing an Olympic spot is a lot of pressure.

 

[Firedancer]

Jackie Wong said on his men’s wrap up video (on Instagram) it will be decided at Champs camp.

I would send Mariah. I still think she one of the strongest US ladies and as noted above there will be a lot of pressure to secure the spot.

 

[PRlady]

I'd send Mariah, she's a much more seasoned competitor. Nebelhorn would be Alysa's senior international debut. Securing an Olympic spot is a lot of pressure.

Exactly. Happy for Alysa to go to Lombardia or Finlandia assuming they’re held...I just think she can be spared the Nebelhorn pressure. Mariah was doing well with international judges pre-crud and I can’t remember her having a complete meltdown.

 

[tony]

A lot can happen in 6 months- we’ve seen it countless times. I trust they will be monitored or Moyer now knows the full detail and they will be able to sufficiently determine who is in the best place at that moment.

 

[Jammers]

I still don't trust Glenn. She has been known to have epic meltdowns so i would go with either Mariah who has the experience or Alysa who even without her 3axel or quads is someone who can handle pressure and will land the jumps. A clean Alysa beats just about all of those skaters who will be at Nebelhorn.

 

[Coco]

Lindsay T. is also in the running, I'm guessing. But you'd hate to send someone so young and inexperienced.

 

[Jammers]

I still don't trust Glenn. She has been known to have epic meltdowns so i would go with either Mariah who has the experience or Alysa who even without her 3axel or quads is someone who can handle pressure and will land the jumps.

 

[toddlj]

I think even on a bad day, any of Bell, Liu, Glenn, or Shin would easily end up in the top six, given the competition. Send whoever is the most prepared after monitoring this summer. I suppose Bell and Liu are the most likely to be given generous PCS scores by international judges. Glenn is the least likely to be hit by excessive carrots.

 

[Coco]

OK everyone, six months until Nebelhorn. Let's stop jinxing the US lady, lol.

 

[ЭPiKUilyam]

Do you have to place top 6 or just top 6 of those vying for an extra spot? What I mean is, can Russia send Valieva who would win and take away a potential spot? Same with Wakaba or whoever from Japan? Shabotova from Ukraine, Safonova from Belarus, etc?

 

[Bulletsdad]

Nebelhorn should be a cake walk for the US women. I would worry more about the men, going against Russia, Canada, France and Korea. With seven spots, still shouldn't be a problem, barring disaster!

 

[Bulletsdad]

Do you have to place top 6 or just top 6 of those vying for an extra spot? What I mean is, can Russia send Valieva who would win and take away a potential spot? Same with Wakaba or whoever from Japan? Shabotova from Ukraine, Safonova from Belarus, etc?

Just top six of those vying for spot.

 

[Vagabond]

Do you have to place top 6 or just top 6 of those vying for an extra spot? What I mean is, can Russia send Valieva who would win and take away a potential spot? Same with Wakaba or whoever from Japan? Shabotova from Ukraine, Safonova from Belarus, etc?

The German Fed may not even allow other Feds to send skaters unless they need to qualify for the Olympics. We shall see what happens.

 

[skatingguy]

Do you have to place top 6 or just top 6 of those vying for an extra spot? What I mean is, can Russia send Valieva who would win and take away a potential spot? Same with Wakaba or whoever from Japan? Shabotova from Ukraine, Safonova from Belarus, etc?

No, this is not a concern. Sometimes the ladies event is limited to entries from countries looking to qualify for the Olympics, but even if they're not it's not the top 6 that get the Olympic berth it's the top 6 eligible to earn an Olympic berth, and both Russia & Japan cannot earn additional Olympic spots to the 3 they already have.

 

[olympic]

I think even on a bad day, any of Bell, Liu, Glenn, or Shin would easily end up in the top six, given the competition. Send whoever is the most prepared after monitoring this summer. I suppose Bell and Liu are the most likely to be given generous PCS scores by international judges. Glenn is the least likely to be hit by excessive carrots.

I am not sure how much the USFSA trusts Glenn. Far fewer carrots and granted, she had a good 4CCs just before YKW, and then 2021 Nationals was a revelation, yet she has cracked up miserably in the past.

ETA - Do we know anything about Tursy? She in good shape would be the bet to win the qualification lottery at Nebelhorn. Is she still being tortured trained by Eteri & Co. at Sambo?

 

[UGG]

I think Mariah would be the safest selection. She is a multiple senior GP medalist and has been to worlds twice. Experience is very important, as we have seen in regards to Karen’s selection on the World Team this year.

 

[Frau Muller]

Ideally, they will come up with an effective selection process for this Nebelhorn spot.

Our summer comps going to go ahead despite the crud? That would be the best way to do it. Make one of them the trial for Nebelhorn or just compare results across a few of them.

Let’s not forget Starr Andrews in the mix. Hopefully she’ll show a 3 Lutz in summer competitions.

 

[NAOTMAA]

If Alysa has her 3A back then it should be her. Her reputation took a bit of a hit this season and if she wants to have a chance at the Beijing podium she needs to make a splash and start building a narrative for herself. Nebelhorn would be a good place to jump start it.

Edit: the USFSA have already invested A LOT in her so I don’t why she wouldn’t be their first choice. She’s the only eligible one who stands a chance to go the furthest and they know it

 

[ЭPiKUilyam]

If Alysa has her 3A back then it should be her. Her reputation took a bit of a hit this season and if she wants to have a chance at the Beijing podium she needs to make a splash and start building a narrative for herself. Nebelhorn would be a good place to jump start it.

Edit: the USFSA have already invested A LOT in her so I don’t why she wouldn’t be their first choice. She’s the only eligible one who stands a chance to go the furthest and they know it

My thoughts as well. She's good for two 3/3s and she's consistent. Mariah is as solid as jello. Amber still untried really. I have a feeling USFS will be going all out for the Alysa Tour this next season. She's nabbed some substantial endorsements already.

 

[jlai]

Even without a 3A, Liu can easily place top 6 among countries vying for a spot if she is in good shape (see nationals). The field is at Nebelhorn for ladies is not as competitive as the field for men. There is US, Kazakhstan, France, Hong Kong, plus the girls placing outside top 24 in the short. A short that scores 65+ and a solid long should do it. Basically, someone who can score 180+ is pretty safe.
The girls in the pool that have scored 65+ in the short internationally: Alexia from Switzerland, Kurakova, Tursynbaeva. Quite a few of them have low 60s as their personal best. Of course, some of them could surprise.

 

[olympic]

But didn’t Alysa have big issues with URs at 2021 Nationals? Mariah stands a better chance of rotating