Olympic Team Event: Strategies and Subs! (Threads Merged)

[manhn]

I am sorry, no way should S&B win a medal and not W&P. I am not over the fact Kevin Reynolds has one and W&P don't.

 

[Frida80]

I would think subbing in C/B or H/D for the Shibs is a much safer choice than subbing in Mirai for Bradie...depending if Bradie hits the SP and is hitting it in practice.

Not really. Women’s is very competitive. Bradie and Mirai will both be in fourth behind Russia, Canada, and Japan. It doesn’t matter which one you use. You’d be praying for others to fail. With the dance teams, it would be the opposite.

Now I have to recalculate to see if USA can beat Russia for silver....

 

[Bellanca]

A few nervous skates from anyone else and who knows what might happen. However, I still think the U.S.A. is okay to split the ladies (Bradie & Mirai) and go with the Shibs for the SD/FD. Adam will need to skate as cleanly as possible especially w/ the jump content he will be doing. All of this is very doable.

 

[VGThuy]

Not really. Women’s is very competitive. Bradie and Mirai will both be in fourth behind Russia, Canada, and Japan. It doesn’t matter which one you use. You’d be praying for others to fail. With the dance teams, it would be the opposite.

Now I have to recalculate to see if USA can beat Russia for silver....

Check out my follow-up posts where I ended up with the same conclusion. It's basically about who the USFS wants to give a medal to, Mirai or one of the ice dance teams.

 

[Frida80]

It doesn't matter. In the LP there are only 5 skaters the worst either Bradie and Mirai can do is 5th. Yes it somehow Mirai is clean her base score is much higher then Bradie. If Bradie is clean she is still most likely 5th if Carolina is skating. Overall scores have nothing to do with the final outcome.

Fourth. Carolina will not do the LP. Italy has no chance for a bronze medal. No point of wearing her out. But Russia, Canada, and Japan are formidable. It will hard to surpass fourth. Third will be a stretch.

 

[VGThuy]

A few nervous skates from anyone else and who knows what might happen. However, I still think the U.S.A. is okay to split the ladies (Bradie & Mirai) and go with the Shibs for the SD/FD. Adam will need to skate as cleanly as possible especially w/ the jump content he will be doing. All of this is very doable.

Luckily, Adam made his brain fart mistakes at Nationals and will not allow that to happen again.

 

[MRani]

If USA has a real shot at the silver after the SPs are over, I wonder if there’ll be any strategy change for the LPs. Things are interesting now.

 

[volturemean]

I am sorry, no way should S&B win a medal and not W&P. I am not over the fact Kevin Reynolds has one and W&P don't.

Exactly. If Canada is in a safe position and they use Sequin & Bilodeau and not Weaver & Poje I will literally barf and hope Skate Canada goes up in flames sometime in the next year. And I dont get this talk they will be giving up a lot of points using Weaver & Poje, like i said if Weaver & Poje skate well they will DEFINITELY beat both Bobrova & Soloviev and Capellini & Lanotte (who probably wont even skate the FD anyway), do no worse than 2nd, and could easily be 1st as they are very capable of beating any U.S entry if they skate well. Although by that point even a 4th place which would only happen if W&P have a bad skate wouldnt hurt them, but 4th is where Sequin & Bilodeau would almost certainly finish in the pairs LP anyway vs the 1st D&R would certainly get if T&M dont skate, far likely to be giving up points than W&P ever would be so that pointless argument applies far more to S&B than W&P.

 

[Frida80]

Check out my follow-up posts where I ended up with the same conclusion. It's basically about who the USFS wants to give a medal to, Mirai or one of the ice dance teams.

I wish things weren’t so political here. If this were the case I would’ve chosen C/B for team. Shibs could get their own individual medal and H/D could play spoiler for bronze. Plus they could try for another Olympics.

But it’s not about that. It’s about making certain the pLay their cards just right. No need to over play their hand.

Russia probably had the plan to have Kolyada skate both programs pre Games, but after his meltdown in the SP they will probably change that plan and have Aliev do the LP.

Z&K could end up doing the LP if Tarasova & Morozov want to rest for the individual, but if they are feeling their situation is desperate enough and T&M feel they can handle it they might have them do both too now. Typically teams with 2 good pairs use both with the pairs event being first up.

They can’t. Ladies and pairs will switch because they’re medal favorites. Mikhail must Skate the FS.

 

[volturemean]

They can’t. Ladies and pairs will switch because they’re medal favorites. Mikhail must Skate the FS.

Mikhail skating the LP might not be that bad in the end. If he skates well he will win the LP. Only Chan can beat a well skating Kolyada of the guys who will skate the LP and that is only if he skated clean or very close to clean which yeah right that is ever going to happen right now. He is due for a good skate, he hasnt had one in a very long time now, even his GPF LP and Nationals LP were both pretty bad, his Europeans SP and LP were both really bad. And he should be determined to redeem himself as he must be embarassed now.

 

[VGThuy]

I wish things weren’t so political here. If this were the case I would’ve chosen C/B for team. Shibs could get their own individual medal and H/D could play spoiler for bronze. Plus they could try for another Olympics.

But it’s not about that. It’s about making certain the pLay their cards just right. No need to over play their hand

I'm sorry I'm not following.

 

[volturemean]

I'm sorry I'm not following.

Basically that Chock & Bates have no real shot at an individual medal while Shibutanis and Hubbell & Donohue both do (which I agree with, will be mildy stunned if C&B medal as they are clearly now only U.S #3, I think even Weaver & Poje are more likely than them, while not surprised with either S&S or H&B getting atleast a bronze) and C&B are very unlikely to make 2022 with the rising depth in U.S dance even if they try for it, while S&S could if they decide to stick it out, and H&D are likely for 2022 and to be even stronger contenders by then. So give C&B this one shot, which is probably their one and only one. I wouldnt put in C&B for that thinking alone, but I can get the thinking.

 

[Frida80]

USA has a scant chance at silver. But only if the Japanese under perform in women’s, Patrick and Adam go 1 and 2, and the USA pair somehow beats the Russian substitute pair. But it relies on two many things outside of control. Not worth it.

 

[Frida80]

Basically that Chock & Bates have no real shot at an individual medal while Shibutanis and Hubbell & Donohue both do (which I agree with, will be mildy stunned if C&B medal as they are clearly now only U.S #3, I think even Weaver & Poje are more likely than them, while not surprised with either S&S or H&B getting atleast a bronze) and C&B are very unlikely to make 2022 with the rising depth in U.S dance even if they try for it, while S&S could if they decide to stick it out, and H&D are likely for 2022 and to be even stronger contenders by then. So give C&B this one shot, which is probably their one and only one. I wouldnt put in C&B for that thinking alone, but I can get the thinking.

Yeah... this is exactly what I was trying to say. But all of that just sounds wrong for some reason.

 

[volturemean]

It would also nice to see Chock & Bates rewarded for their commitment to the World Team Trophy which is probably the highest of any U.S skater. Unfortunately the buzz is the decision is between either having the Shibs do both, or H&D do the FD, so it seems unlikely based on the buzz C&B will be appearing even if they choose to split dance, but it would be nice if they got a shot.

 

[coppertop1]

Doings the math, Canada will be leading heading into the FS. We will win Ice Dance and should be second or third in Ladies. OAR should win Ladies, especially if Med skates.

 

[WildRose]

Canada takes the Team event very seriously, has planned for it all season, and is in it to win a gold medal for the Canadian Team. It’s not about individuals. They will go with their best as planned.

 

[rvi5]

Canada takes the Team event very seriously, has planned for it all season, and is in it to win a gold medal for the Canadian Team. It’s not about individuals. They will go with their best as planned.

Agree.

When Meagan and Eric were being interviewed at the onset of the competition yesterday, she was asked about Canada’s strategy/game plan for the team event. Her comment was:

“...whatever it takes, whoever needs to skate in order for Canada to win that gold medal, is what’s going to happen”.

With all the retirements after this Olympics, this could be the best chance for Canada to claim team gold for awhile. It didn’t sound as if there were plans to take risks using second best skaters.

 

[princeton123]

Weaver/Poje fans need to stop whining about them not getting to participate in the team event. It's not a reward for a long career - it's something they have to earn by proving their value to the team.

 

[Erin]

I would love to see Weaver & Poje with an Olympic medal as much as anyone. But I'm not sure I see Canada willing to risk the gold to let them skate. Entries for the men/dance/ladies free are due at 3:30 pm on Sunday (Korean time), which I assume is pretty much immediately after the pairs free is over. Unless Canada has a contingency plan in order that says "if we are ahead by x points, Weaver & Poje skate, if not, Virtue & Moir skate", then I can't see the substitution happening.

I am glad to hear that Duhamel & Radford are prepared to skate the free program. I had assumed they wouldn't, which was one reason I was pegging Canada for silver. That plus no Tarasova & Morozov in the free (I had assumed they would do the free once Stolbova & Klimov were out) helps swing things in Canada's favour. Outside of Kolyada's disaster last night, which is really the biggest break Canada could have got.

I went into last night hoping for just good skating. Apparently that was not the thing to wish for...

 

[Anyasnake]

I thought D/R weren't doing the FS either, but given the event this morning, this, plus the fact that Z/E are skating the FS for Russia, it seriously turned into Canada's favour. Because I thought it was going to be close with T/M doing both and Julianne/Charlie doing the FS but this changes things.

 

[tony]

The only hurdle really left in Canada's path to gold is the ladies short program. If Osmond can finish even in the top 4, the team should be fine. And with relatively weaker countries in the field, she's going to get it unless there's a disaster on Kolyada levels. I'm going to put Osmond 4th in this scenario.

In the SD and FD, it's pretty likely to Virtue/Moir finish at least two positions ahead of the Russians (with USA being in between). There's a chance that even Cappellini/Lanotte could sneak in past Bobrova/Soloviev in either portion as well -- so Canada gains at least 4 more points there, potentially 6. We will use 4 points for this example.

In the pairs LP, Zabiiako/Enbert being subbed in means Duhamel/Radford should also win the portion there. Even though it may be close between RUS, ITA, and a solid USA there, we will give Russia the benefit and say they finish 2nd in the portion. 1 more point gained for Canada, but potentially more.

The mens LP field is Rippon, Chan, Tanaka, Rizzo, and then either Kolyada or Aliev. Again, if we give Russia the benefit and say they will win this portion and say Canada finishes even 3rd, Russia will earn 2 points back. But this is highly unpredictable with said field.

Ladies LP is probably Zagitova, Sakamoto, Kostner, one of Nagasu/Tennell, and one of Daleman/Osmond. We will again say Russia wins here (safer bet), and I'll put Canada 3rd just for the sake of giving Russia another benefit.

So going into the LP with these examples, Canada would have 33 points. Russia has 31 points.

Canada gets 36 points in the long programs, and Russia gets 37. Canada wins by one point (69 to 68). And remember, this is a scenario in which pretty much everything goes right for Russia and some things go wrong, particularly with the ladies, for Canada.

 

[volturemean]

I think if Duhamel & Radford are doing both programs, Weaver & Poje will actually end up doing the LP or if not Messing the LP even. It is very rare a top team doesn't use 2 subs, so I would be surprised if this is an exception.

 

[Rukia]

I think if Duhamel & Radford are doing both programs, Weaver & Poje will actually end up doing the LP or if not Messing the LP even. It is very rare a top team doesn't use 2 subs, so I would be surprised if this is an exception.

If it's remotely close (and maybe even if not), V/M are doing the FD no matter the substitutions. It's almost a guaranteed 10 points.

 

[tony]

I think if Duhamel & Radford are doing both programs, Weaver & Poje will actually end up doing the LP or if not Messing the LP even. It is very rare a top team doesn't use 2 subs, so I would be surprised if this is an exception.

D/R definitely are doing both programs and Chan is as well. Canada knows it's not quite over yet, but they still need to do their best. The only switch I see potentially occurring is Osmond to Daleman in the LP because Gabrielle is the the National Champion.

Subbing in W/P means that Canada is risking losing to the USA in that portion, and potentially even Russia. They can't yet afford that breathing room.

 

[Erin]

The mens LP field is Rippon, Chan, Tanaka, Rizzo, and then either Kolyada or Aliev. Again, if we give Russia the benefit and say they will win this portion and say Canada finishes even 3rd, Russia will earn 2 points back. But this is highly unpredictable with said field.

Assuming the reports are correct that Russia is using Zabiiako & Enbert for the free and that the universal assumption about splitting ladies is also correct, then it would have to be Kolyada in the free.

I agree that the men's field is unpredictable. About the only thing I would have said was certain before the event was Rizzo finishing 5th but he beat Kolyada in the SP and his Season's Best in the free is 6 points higher than Chan, who still isn't looking in form, so this event really is anyone's game.

Kolyada has the highest SB so if he is on, he could win, but as we saw last night, if he's off, well...

Chan has the highest PB, but it is from two years ago.

 

[volturemean]

D/R definitely are doing both programs and Chan is as well. Canada knows it's not quite over yet, but they still need to do their best. The only switch I see potentially occurring is Osmond to Daleman in the LP because Gabrielle is the the National Champion.

Subbing in W/P means that Canada is risking losing to the USA in that portion, and potentially even Russia. They can't yet afford that breathing room.

We will see but I am just going by the Team competitions thus far, top teams always seem to use 2 subs so I expect they will again.

And W/P would never lose to B/S in the FD unless they skate really bad.

 

[VGThuy]

B/S have beaten W/P in the FD at their last head-to-head at Worlds 2017.

 

[coppertop1]

With the Men, I do wonder why do a jump in competition that you don’t land very much? Is it worth it? Kolyada just dug the OAR into a big hole.

I think V/M will do the FD. I don’t see them being subbed and Daleman will sub in for Osmond in the LP. If Messier subs in for Chan, what would that mean?

 

[Spun Silver]

If Messier subbed for Chan that would mean somebody is very very confused. Or desperate.