Olympic Team Event: Strategies and Subs! (Threads Merged)

[Jarrett]

There is a very good chance Bradie would not be 5th since atleast someone else will make a lot of mistakes and she wont. While Mirai is likely to make a fair number of mistakes herself and is thus likely to indeed finish 5th, despite the high likelihood of 1 or 2 others having a lot of problems too.

Even with mistakes Bradie will still be behind other skaters. She does not have the PCS of the other skaters from Canada, OAR, Italy or Japan fair or not. Yea if they have all meltdowns I guess she could place one of two higher but I am not sure why Mirai is expected to make all these mistakes when she has been pretty consistent this season in the long.

 

[VGThuy]

Well, everyone thought there was no way SK/K could beat Y/Z, M/G, and J/C in the Pairs TE event no matter what they did, so...the Olympics are nutty and we don't know what a clean, fired up Bradie performance can really score compared to other ladies if they are mistake-prone. It's not like we have a lot of competitions to compare. Earlier this season, nobody expected Sakamoto to skate the way she did this season.

 

[volturemean]

I think the Shibs can place second in the SD since P/C won't be there. In my heart I think they can actually place first because their SD is just that good, but my head knows better.

Ooops did not know P/C werent doing the SD. Yeah the same holds though but just move everyone up a spot. B/S will probably be just 1 spot behind, although there is a chance they could be 2 if they are behind C/L.

 

[MRani]

Well, everyone thought there was no way SK/K could beat Y/Z, M/G, and J/C in the Pairs TE event no matter what they did, so...the Olympics are nutty and we don't know what a clean, fired up Bradie performance can really score compared to other ladies if they are mistake-prone. It's not like we have a lot of competitions to compare. Earlier this season, nobody expected Sakamoto to skate the way she did this season.

More cheers for SK/K. Seriously. They deserve it. They were awesome

I never even cared about US pairs and now I’m a fan.

As for Bradie, let’s also remember she’s US national champion now. If she skates clean again, she could get a PCS boost to help her scores. If others are clean she may still end up 4th or 5th, but if others have major mistakes and she doesn’t, the US champion boost could help push her over.

 

[Jarrett]

More cheers for SK/K. Seriously. They deserve it. They were awesome

I never even cared about US pairs and now I’m a fan.

As for Bradie, let’s also remember she’s US national champion now. If she skates clean again, she could get a PCS boost to help her scores. If others are clean she may still end up 4th or 5th, but if others have major mistakes and she doesn’t, the US champion boost could help push her over.

Yea clean Rachael Flatt U.S. National Champion really cleaned up on the PCS when people made mistakes in Vancouver...

 

[VGThuy]

Yea clean Rachael Flatt U.S. National Champion really cleaned up on the PCS when people made mistakes in Vancouver...

Hey man, the U.S. ladies would love to have Flatt-in-2010-like results right now, including Mirai.

 

[MRani]

Yea clean Rachael Flatt U.S. National Champion really cleaned up on the PCS when people made mistakes in Vancouver...

We can at least hope lol. I’m not expecting Bradie to be a medal contender or anything. But expecting at least a modest improvement in her scores now that she’s US champion isn’t that implausible I think. As long as she skates clean of course. She won’t be held up if she makes mistakes.

 

[volturemean]

Yea clean Rachael Flatt U.S. National Champion really cleaned up on the PCS when people made mistakes in Vancouver...

Without her 2 UR calls (which were both questionable at best) she comes 4th over Nagasu, which in fact would have been ridiculous given how well Nagasu skated and when Flatt's short program wasnt clean. So if anything that is a contradiction to your point and shows U.S Champion clout, atleast when you look at the forest around the trees. It took Flatt getting UR calls and Nagasu getting none (how likely a scenario is that, LOL) for Nagasu to come out ahead.

 

[Jarrett]

Hey man, the U.S. ladies would love to have Flatt-in-2010-like results right now, including Mirai.

I agree with that.

 

[Jarrett]

Without her 2 UR calls (which were both questionable at best) she comes 4th over Nagasu, which in fact would have been ridiculous given how well Nagasu skated and when Flatt's short program wasnt clean. So if anything that is a contradiction to your point and shows U.S Champion clout, atleast when you look at the forest around the trees. It took Flatt getting UR calls and Nagasu getting none (how likely a scenario is that, LOL) for Nagasu to come out ahead.

Id argue she wouldn't have gotten the UR calls in the first place if the U.S. Champion had any clout. There were much worse jumps that didn't get called but Rachel did. The U.S. skaters are pretty much going into the Olympics just like 2010, even and afterthoughts as being contenders. Heck I could see Karen beating them both if she is on.

 

[VGThuy]

I can too. Karen is just full of surprises. I have no idea how she's going to do and how the callers will see her haha.

 

[volturemean]

I think Karen is being really underrated actually. I do not think she should be used in the Team Event whether the U.S uses 2 ladies or not, as she is far too big a risk given her season. However it was stupid she was not even included in the "who makes top 6 if all go clean" ladies short program thread and Tennell was. Since if Chen did go completely clean, she could easily be top 6 even in a perfect event, and would certainly beat a clean Tennell IMO.

 

[Vash01]

That makes sense. You know I would love nothing more than to have the Shibs have a redemption FD in the TE and scoring exceedingly well leading into the individual Ice Dance competition, but I was thinking if the U.S. somehow can beat OAR in the LPs depending on Adam beating Kolyada by some way and SK/K beating Z/E in pairs and the Shibs beating B/S in the SD...what the U.S. can do in ladies and ice dance. I guess Bradie and Mirai both have a similar chance of placing 3rd and 4th (depending if Caro doesn't do the LP and thus Italy most likely having a 5th place ladies placement).

Where did you read that Kolyada and Z&E would skate the LP? If they do, Russia won't win even a bronze.

 

[volturemean]

Where did you read that Kolyada and Z&E would skate the LP? If they do, Russia won't win even a bronze.

Russia probably had the plan to have Kolyada skate both programs pre Games, but after his meltdown in the SP they will probably change that plan and have Aliev do the LP.

Z&K could end up doing the LP if Tarasova & Morozov want to rest for the individual, but if they are feeling their situation is desperate enough and T&M feel they can handle it they might have them do both too now. Typically teams with 2 good pairs use both with the pairs event being first up.

 

[MRani]

Where did you read that Kolyada and Z&E would skate the LP? If they do, Russia won't win even a bronze.

I think T/M and Aliev will definitely skate the LP now. It could be dangerous for T/M’s individual medal chances but Russia might not be able to afford to use Z/E now.

 

[VGThuy]

I think Karen is being really underrated actually. I do not think she should be used in the Team Event whether the U.S uses 2 ladies or not, as she is far too big a risk given her season. However it was stupid she was not even included in the "who makes top 6 if all go clean" ladies short program thread and Tennell was. Since if Chen did go completely clean, she could easily be top 6 even in a perfect event, and would certainly beat a clean Tennell IMO.

I think people are afraid of the callers...this is a UR world, and Karen can be a UR girl.

Where did you read that Kolyada and Z&E would skate the LP? If they do, Russia won't win even a bronze.

I read it in the PBP thread because T/M want to rest for the individual and they will split ladies.

 

[volturemean]

I think T&M will be fine to do both. They are young, fit, and workhorses. Also have no minor injuries they are carrying unlike some others. I dont think it will hurt their chances in the individual and they will definitely do the LP now. If they win that too it could really carry their confidence into the individual and if anything be a plus, and I dont even like them.

 

[VGThuy]

@Domshabfan just said in a local news report that T/M will not do the LP.

 

[volturemean]

I think people are afraid of the callers...this is a UR world, and Karen can be a UR girl.

Absolutely but as people mentioned with Miyahara and Nagasu that thread was about a hypothetical totally clean, so no URs. In that scenario Chen would never score lower than Tennell, and unless the triple axel really pushes Mirai including her PCS, probably would be the top American.

I read it in the PBP thread because T/M want to rest for the individual and they will split ladies.

That was probably when they thought Kolyada would do both, which I dont think he will do now, so they will be doing a mens substitution rather than a ladies. Since they for sure will be splitting ladies I think, so if they have Aliev do the LP which seems plainly obvious to do now they cant even do a pairs substitution anyway.

 

[volturemean]

@Domshabfan just said in a local news report that T/M will not do the LP.

Well if that is really true I guess they are having Kolyada do both programs as there is no way they are not giving Zagitova and Medvedeva both a go in the ladies IMO. U.S really has a good shot at silver now.

 

[Vash01]

I think people are afraid of the callers...this is a UR world, and Karen can be a UR girl.



I read it in the PBP thread because T/M want to rest for the individual and they will split ladies.

So they are writing off the team gold it seems. In any case it would be an uphill climb, unlike in Sochi. Z&E would be around 4th in the LP, behind Canada, USA, Italy, and Kolyada could be 5th, based on how he has skated this whole season, and particularly tonight.

I can understand them saving T&M's energy though. It would be brutal for them to skate 4 times in such a short time frame.

Do points (based on placement, not the score)from SP carry over into the next segment?

 

[volturemean]

So they are writing off the team gold it seems. In any case it would be an uphill climb, unlike in Sochi. Z&E would be around 4th in the LP, behind Canada, USA, Italy, and Kolyada could be 5th, based on how he has skated this whole season, and particularly tonight.

I can understand them saving T&M's energy though. It would be brutal for them to skate 4 times in such a short time frame.

Z&E would probably beat Italy and quite likely the U.S. I think they would be 2nd in the LP, and could even be 1st if Duhamel & Radford (who are inconsistent LP skaters these days) have enough issues. Kolyada could be 5th but he could come out super determined to prove himself again after his nightmare tonight, and if he does that he could easily win the LP given who will be skating. In fact if he skates well he absolutely will win the LP against Rippon, Rizzo, Chan (who almost certainly wont skate even close to clean), and Tanaka. The question is which Kolyada will show up this time.

 

[coppertop1]

This really muddies the water for OAR. If they do switch pairs, could we have S/B sub I for D/R? Patrick wasn’t great but tonight he did enough. We have the advantage in Ice Dance. OAR has the advantage in women but Kaetlyn should keep it close.

 

[volturemean]

This really muddies the water for OAR. If they do switch pairs, could we have S/B sub I for D/R? Patrick wasn’t great but tonight he did enough. We have the advantage in Ice Dance. OAR has the advantage in women but Kaetlyn should keep it close.

I think they can easily afford to sub any event they want. They can afford to have Weaver & Poje do the FD now and be in no danger, and I hope they do. Especialy as Weaver & Poje will be 1st or 2nd in the FD if they skate well, they would only be 4th behind Bobrova & Soloviev and Capellini & Lanotte if they skate a really bad FD with a big stumble or something. And even being 4th wouldnt hurt Canada at this point. I think they make more sense than Sequin & Bilodeau personally, but neither could hurt Canada at this point anyway.

 

[MRani]

I think they can easily afford to sub any event they want. They can afford to have Weaver & Poje do the FD now and be in no danger, and I hope they do. Especialy as Weaver & Poje will be 1st or 2nd in the FD if they skate well, they would only be 4th behind Bobrova & Soloviev and Capellini & Lanotte if they skate a really bad FD with a big stumble or something. And even being 4th wouldnt hurt Canada at this point. I think they make more sense than Sequin & Bilodeau personally, but neither could hurt Canada at this point anyway.

I don’t think they’ll make D/R do both programs when they have a chance at an individual medal. It makes more sense to have V/M do both and get a guaranteed first place finish in ice dance.

 

[MR-FAN]

If D/R skate the LP, and Canada builds enough of an advantage going into the last day, Weaver/Poje can safely do the LP and get themselves a medal

 

[volturemean]

I don’t think they’ll make D/R do both programs when they have a chance at an individual medal. It makes more sense to have V/M do both and get a guaranteed first place finish in ice dance.

D/R dont have much chance at an individual medal really. Unless one of T/M, S/H, or S/M bomb both programs they will not medal. All 3 of those teams with 1 fairly bad program like S/M had today, but the other one good would still likely beat D/R with 2 good skates, and that is even without the unlikelyhood of D/R having a good skate in both programs given their season. Their big focus is probably the Team Gold and team event. Sequin & Bilodeau would probably give up more likely placements (D&R would almost certainly win the LP given who will be skating) than W&P (who would probably be 1st or 2nd in the FD assuming P&C arent skating and France isnt likely making Team Finals anyway) would.

 

[VGThuy]

I can see D/R being afraid that if they don't do the TE LP then Canada might somehow lose its advantage and might lose gold. They don't want to take any chances on a real gold medal shot.

 

[MRani]

D/R dont have much chance at an individual medal really. Unless one of T/M, S/H, or S/M bomb both programs they will not medal.

I think they have more of a chance than W/P though. And I think they think they have a chance, even if unlikely, and so they’ll want to give themselves their best shot by not doing both programs. Also, W/P could lose the FD to the US pair and B/S. Why give up an easy win in dance?

I think a lot will depend on how the rest of the SPs go. If Canada ends up with a huge lead, they won’t make D/R do both programs. If it’s close, D/R may do both.

 

[volturemean]

I think they have more of a chance than W/P though. And I think they think they have a chance, even if unlikely, and so they’ll want to give themselves their best shot by not doing both programs. Also, W/P could lose the FD to the US pair and B/S. Why give up an easy win in dance?

Yeah W/P could be 3rd or 4th in the FD if they skate bad, but if they skate well as expected they would be either 1st or 2nd, but Sequin & Bilodeau could easily be 4th (behind Russia, Italy, U.S) in the LP even if they skate fairly well and unlike W&P almost certainly would not be 1st or 2nd. D/R and V/M are both a certain 1st given the teams who will be skating, so no difference there. So I dont see that point at all.

And I agree D/R probably have more shot at an individual medal than W/P (although really not much difference, probably about 20-25% for both to get a bronze), but I dont see how that even relates to the topic in anyway as the discussion isnt saving D/R vs saving W/P, LOL! If anything it is about saving D/R vs saving V/M, and we know V/M have way more shot at both gold and a medal than D/R, with the only counterpoint being pairs is first up and dance is not.