Olympic Team Event: Strategies and Subs! (Threads Merged)

[Frida80]

But Rizzo is far closer to Nathan than Italy could have anticipated. (Rizzo is ahead of Han Yan & Kolyada while Nathan finished behind Patrick & Bychenko). I'd say Italy is ahead of where most people would have predicted them at this stage relative to the U.S.

Japan is probably at least a spot higher than anticipated, though, with the pairs team besting the Israelis.

Kolyada is perfectly capable of doing well in the FS after a crummy SP. He started off this season with a 12th place SP at Nepela and won the event there.

I'm not sure why people are still insisting there are certainties.

The problem is the US pair over performed. I wasn’t expecting them to place so high. So any advantage that they gained because of Nathan, they also lost because of the pairs.

 

[Dobre]

The problem is the US pair over performed. I wasn’t expecting them to place so high. So any advantage that they gained because of Nathan, they also lost because of the pairs.

I only expected the Italians to be one place above the U.S. pair. They lost by 3 spots. So a net loss/gain of 4 places from my expectations. I expected--i.e. hoped--Nathan would be at least 2nd and expected Rizzo to be @7th (and wouldn't have been shocked if he'd finished behind Cha and/or Besseghier as well though Matteo has been very solid this season except at his first JGP). A difference of at least 5 spots. Instead, Rizzo is only behind the U.S. by one place. A tie between my predictions and the real results.

 

[sylvestercat]

It is such a shame the Italian pair did not have a stronger skate in the short or they would really be in the hunt for a medal. Matteo Guarise deserves an Olympic medal for how hard he worked to convert from his old sport to this, plus he is the hottest thing on ice.

 

[fracturedleg]

Have the entries for the final day after tonights competition been announced yet?

 

[sylvestercat]

The problem is the US pair over performed. I wasn’t expecting them to place so high. So any advantage that they gained because of Nathan, they also lost because of the pairs.

I didn't see the pairs. Did the Italians underperform or the Americans just kill it.

 

[VGThuy]

I didn't see the pairs. Did the Italians underperform or the Americans just kill it.

M/G made a mistake on their throw. Usually they would have placed ahead of the SK/K anyway, but SK/K brought it.

 

[sylvestercat]

M/G made a mistake on their throw. Usually they would have placed ahead of the SK/K anyway, but SK/K brought it.

Oh what a shame. I guess if Italy uses the bronze to the US by a small margin they will be the shamed ones in Italy.

 

[skatingguy]

Have the entries for the final day after tonights competition been announced yet?

No, they'll be announced Sunday afternoon.

 

[clairecloutier]

M/G made a mistake on their throw. Usually they would have placed ahead of the SK/K anyway, but SK/K brought it.

Not necessarily. Remember that SK/K beat DM/G by 3 spots at Worlds last year. They have beaten DM/G every year at Worlds that both teams competed.

DM/G spent the fall season building cred with the judges, while the Knierims lost some due to inconsistent skating.

But Thursday showed the continued potential of the Knierims to score high when they hit. Their ceiling is higher than DM/G's, even if DM/G are generally the more consistent team.

 

[VGThuy]

Not necessarily. Remember that SK/K beat DM/G by 3 spots at Worlds last year. They have beaten DM/G every year at Worlds that both teams competed.

DM/G spent the fall season building cred with the judges, while the Knierims lost some due to inconsistent skating.

But Thursday showed the continued potential of the Knierims to score high when they hit. Their ceiling is higher than DM/G's, even if DM/G are generally the more consistent team.

Thanks for the correction. I fell for the hype of the FSU fans who made it sound like SK/K would have been lucky to place in the top 7 in the TE SP and that every other team was just so superior to them.

It's sort of funny. I haven't paid too close attention to the pairs competition as I have with the others, but it seems like mistakes are not uncommon with the field but it seems the U.S. pairs get hammered more online about it.

 

[Seerek]

Val/Ondrej probably could have been 4th in the short program.

Kostner could perhaps finish 4 spots ahead of Bradie, who knows?

 

[sylvestercat]

Medvedeva would have to make a mistake for even a clean Kostner to win the ladies short. It is possible a clean Osmond finishes over a clean Kostner too. Tennell could easily be as low as 5th or 6th if all the countries entries skate their best though.

 

[Frida80]

Medvedeva would have to make a mistake for even a clean Kostner to win the ladies short. It is possible a clean Osmond finishes over a clean Kostner too. Tennell could easily be as low as 5th or 6th if all the countries entries skate their best though.

As I recall, a clean Kostner couldn't beat Zhenia even with a mistake. Zhenia is back to doing 3+3+3 combos in practice. She'll be a peak performances and scoring in the 80's.

 

[sylvestercat]

As I recall, a clean Kostner couldn't beat Zhenia even with a mistake. Zhenia is back to doing 3+3+3 combos in practice. She'll be a peak performances and scoring in the 80's.

Medvedeva's mistake was a semi fall on a double axel which if it was graded as a full fall would have had her behind. If Medvedeva say falls on the combation jump she is for sure behind a clean Kostner, but would still beat a clean Tennell, putting an additional spot between them.

 

[screech]

Confirmation from Skate Canada that D/R are doing the FP tonight

 

[Anyasnake]

Confirmation from Skate Canada that D/R are doing the FP tonight

Would have loved to see S/B gorgeous LP, but Canada is in a 'Gold or Bust' mode for the Team event, and rightfully so.

 

[coppertop1]

Would have loved to see S/B gorgeous LP, but Canada is in a 'Gold or Bust' mode for the Team event, and rightfully so.

And it’s working. We’re not leaving anything to chance, sending all our top names out. We can afford to sub for the women because Kaetlyn and Gabrielle are pretty equal. The Italians were outstanding in pairs! Wow! Could that combined with Carolina’s performance move Italy closer to the bronze?

With the Canadian Team, we aren’t letting in much distance in the events that the OAR beat us in.

 

[Vash01]

Medvedeva's mistake was a semi fall on a double axel which if it was graded as a full fall would have had her behind. If Medvedeva say falls on the combation jump she is for sure behind a clean Kostner, but would still beat a clean Tennell, putting an additional spot between them.

It was only a step out, not a semifall- whatever you mean by that. There is no way it could be called a fall. No part if her hand or knee touched the ice. She scored higher than Kostner because of the bonus points on her other jumps.

 

[screech]

Scott Moir says they want to win the team gold for Patrick, and that they're proud of the SP Patrick put out.

It sure would be extra nice for Patrick Chan, one of the most accomplished figure skaters in history, the three-time world champion who is missing only Olympic gold from his extensive hardware collection, after winning silver in Sochi. In his short program in this team event, Chan fell twice, but still managed to finish third overall. He’ll skate his long program in Monday’s finale. “In a big way,” Moir says, “we wanna do this for Chiddy.” (That’s Chan’s nickname.)

“I think that’s what makes it so special,” Moir adds. “I mean, Patrick Chan, you could make the argument he’s the best skater that ever was … He was disappointed in his skate yesterday. We were actually quite proud. We loved the way he battled to the end. I know that’s not a Patrick Chan skate, but what I did see was him battle and it was a veteran move. It got us in the position that we needed to be in.”

In any case, for the long programs today, no real surprises for who's competing
Canada is sending V/M, Patrick, and Gabby
Italy has kept all the same people
Japan is putting in Keiji and Kaori, and of course M/R
Russia is giving Kolyada another chance (and I want him to kill it), B/S still in the FD, and Alina (smart choice).
And USA has chosen Adam and Mirai for the long, keeping the ShibSibs.

 

[coppertop1]

Canada looks secure for gold. It will be a close battle for the bronze. USA has the egde in Men’s, Italy has the edge in Women’s. Ice Dance is pretty even. Men’s is the wild card.

 

[Erin]

Scott Moir says they want to win the team gold for Patrick, and that they're proud of the SP Patrick put out.

Interesting and kind of puts into perspective the quote from Patrick that he was feeling bad about his SP but that his teammates helped make him feel better. I thought it was kind of a typical clueless Patrick quote, but the whole team really does seem very supportive.

 

[judgejudy27]

It is super nice how supportive Patrick's teammates are of him and how they want a great champion like him to have Olympic Gold, especialy as it is highly unlikely to happen in the individual this time around. Awesome! I hope they get it.

Italy vs U.S will be interesting. I think the only way Italy passes the U.S is if the Shibutanis have a problem in their FD like U.S Nationals which could lead to the Italians besting them if they skate well. Kostner will likely beat Nagasu, but it could be by just 1 place or it could be by 3 places, it depends how well Kostner skates, and how well Nagasu skates. Rippon will beat Rizzo, but again it could be as little as 1 place or as much as 3, although this one depends almost entirely on Rippon and Rippon's competitors not named Rizzo as what Rizzo can do is pretty obvious.

 

[Frida80]

I have to say, that was more fun that in Sochi. I guess it’s because it felt a bit more like a competition. Or maybe because I started to crunch these numbers waaaaaay back in November even before the last teams were know and I was dying to know just what would happen.

I got the placements right in the end. However, going into today I didn’t know what to expect. Italy over performed in pairs, making USA’s gap only one point. But the competitors made this a race in the end. Congratulations to Canada, especially Patrick who finally got his gold medal.

I hope they consider putting it at the end of the competition instead of the beginning in Beijing. I can’t wait to see China really work on assembling Gold medal level team by then.

 

[Anyasnake]

Congrats to Canada What a STRONG team, they really put their best assets, they really wanted this !

Hoping China can put an amazing team in 4 years on home soil

 

[MAXSwagg]

Love how EVERYONE was complaining about how stupid the team event was but it seems the majority really got into it. I agree that it was probably due to the more close competition. Kolyada really lost it for Russia, poor thing.

 

[Marco]

Interesting that OAR lost the gold by 7 points. If Kolyada had gone cleanish and placed 2nd in the short (god knows why the judges kept showering him with high PCS), they would have gotten 9 points instead of 3 and pushed Canada down 1 spot and tied them overall. I don't know how tie-break works in the team event. Obviously, if they were in closer contention, perhaps OAR would also use T&M for the free as well.

Also, PATRICK CHAN IS OLYMPIC FREAKING CHAMPION. Skating basics still matter.

Also also, major congrats to Mirai and Adam! Making the Olympics and skating like that is just incredible. Way to presevere.

 

[coppertop1]

Love how EVERYONE was complaining about how stupid the team event was but it seems the majority really got into it. I agree that it was probably due to the more close competition. Kolyada really lost it for Russia, poor thing.

Most people here predicted it would come down to Men’s. If Patrick beat Kolyada, Canada would win. We called it. Kolyada put Russia into a big hole after the SP. The Canadians did their job. They didn’t let Russia gain too many points over them

This was definitely better than Sochi. In Sochi, Russia didn’t make a mistake and dominated except for Ice Dance. Here, No Team was perfect so it kept it interesting. Canada got the early lead and held it. It was a close battle for bronze.

 

[Vash01]

So many people,e complained about the teams ent, in different ways, but there were many discussions and predictions here about it. So the interest was definitely there. The event had enough suspense to keep us guessing till almost the last group. I say this was a success.

 

[Elkmaria]

Wow, I guess this all basically boiled down to Kolyada bombing so badly in the SP and Canada's determination to bring their A game in all events. I was sure that they would let W/P do the FD, but it seems that Team Canada did not want to lose a single point.
Anyway, I'm especially happy for those skaters who may have only marginal chances to medal individually, but were able to win a medal as part of the team. Rippon, Nagasu, Tennell, B/S and Daleman are the first who come to mind, mostly because they did so well and contributed to the success of their respective teams. And I think Z/E also did their absolute best minus that freak fall.

 

[tony]

I’m all about the numbers games and strategizing and all of that, so I’ll always get some enjoyment out of this event. But I still think a lot of things need to be fixed for next time. The scoring of the LP, possibly allowing all teams to skate the LP to add even more suspense, considering putting it after the individual events because some skaters are forced to compete every single portion while other counties decide to sit their top athletes out and not even bother with the event/give back points to other top teams, etc. It could basically turn into politics or deals if certain countries made the Final but knew they were out of the medal running (ie. sending a weak skater to compete to A) rest their top athletes and B) allow other countries to bunch up more closely). I’m not sure how thrilling that is.

But my worry for 2022 is that even if China has a top team, they will once again have their best skaters sit out if it means possibly hindering their chances at individual gold. A team of Sui/Han and Boyang Jin (especially seeing how all the other men skated in the SP) could have really challenged for a medal IMO.