2026 Olympics Team Event - Strategy, Predictions & Discussion

[Karen-W]

So, there've been lots of Team event discussions & conversations in a bunch of threads and it seems like a good idea to have a centralized discussion thread for this event since we're heading into the 4th iteration of this unique, once-every-four-years competition.

Countries qualified for the TE -

Country	Men​	Women​	Pairs​	Ice Dance​	Quota Spots​
USA	3​	3​	2​	3​
JPN	3​	3​	2​	0​	2​
ITA	2​	1​	2​	1​
CAN	1​	1​	2​	3​
GEO	1​	1​	1​	1​
FRA	2​	1​	0​	2​	2​
GBR	0​	1​	1​	2​	1​
CHN	1​	1​	1​	1​
KOR	2​	2​	0​	1​
POL	1​	1​	1​	0​

France is still next in line to pick up a Pairs spot (waiting on confirmation that UZB has relinquished their spot). Once that happens, KOR would be next in line for 2 quota spots, however they don't have a pairs team, so POL would then be able to use the last 2 quote spots to enter a dance team for the TE. That will give every country an entry in each discipline for the TE except KOR in pairs.

The Olympic schedule for figure skating is as follows:
Feb 6th - TE RD, Men's SP, Pairs SP
Feb 7th - TE Women's SP, FD
Feb 8th - TE Pairs FS, Men's FS, Women's FS
Feb 9th - Ice Dance RD
Feb 10th - Men's SP
Feb 11th - Ice Dance FD
Feb 13th - Men's FS
Feb 15th - Pairs SP
Feb 16th - Pairs FS
Feb 17th - Women's SP
Feb 19th - Women's FS

Each country can only split the TE segments for two disciplines, so there are some interesting strategic choices facing top countries contending for the medals and even making the FS/FD portion of the TE.

• If Fournier-Beaudry/Cizeron decide to compete in the TE RD will that push FRA ahead of CAN and into the FS/FD?
• Does ITA split pairs knowing how weak Ghilardi/Ambrosini usually are in the FS?
• Which disciplines will the USA and JPN split?
• Do Fear/Gibson compete in the RD or let Bekker/Hernandez have the responsibility for GBR?
• Same with Cha for KOR's men...
• Does CAN have a realistic shot at the podium or is it purely a battle between ITA & GEO at this point?

Discuss away!

 

[Bulletsdad]

So, there've been lots of Team event discussions & conversations in a bunch of threads and it seems like a good idea to have a centralized discussion thread for this event since we're heading into the 4th iteration of this unique, once-every-four-years competition.

Countries qualified for the TE -

Country	Men​	Women​	Pairs​	Ice Dance​	Quota Spots​
USA	3​	3​	2​	3​
JPN	3​	3​	2​	0​	2​
ITA	2​	1​	2​	1​
CAN	1​	1​	2​	3​
GEO	1​	1​	1​	1​
FRA	2​	1​	0​	2​	2​
GBR	0​	1​	1​	2​	1​
CHN	1​	1​	1​	1​
KOR	2​	2​	0​	1​
POL	1​	1​	1​	0​

France is still next in line to pick up a Pairs spot (waiting on confirmation that UZB has relinquished their spot). Once that happens, KOR would be next in line for 2 quota spots, however they don't have a pairs team, so POL would then be able to use the last 2 quote spots to enter a dance team for the TE. That will give every country an entry in each discipline for the TE except KOR in pairs.

The Olympic schedule for figure skating is as follows:
Feb 6th - TE RD, Men's SP, Pairs SP
Feb 7th - TE Women's SP, FD
Feb 8th - TE Pairs FS, Men's FS, Women's FS
Feb 9th - Ice Dance RD
Feb 10th - Men's SP
Feb 11th - Ice Dance FD
Feb 13th - Men's FS
Feb 15th - Pairs SP
Feb 16th - Pairs FS
Feb 17th - Women's SP
Feb 19th - Women's FS

Each country can only split the TE segments for two disciplines, so there are some interesting strategic choices facing top countries contending for the medals and even making the FS/FD portion of the TE.

• If Fournier-Beaudry/Cizeron decide to compete in the TE RD will that push FRA ahead of CAN and into the FS/FD?
• Does ITA split pairs knowing how weak Ghilardi/Ambrosini usually are in the FS?
• Which disciplines will the USA and JPN split?
• Do Fear/Gibson compete in the RD or let Bekker/Hernandez have the responsibility for GBR?
• Same with Cha for KOR's men...
• Does CAN have a realistic shot at the podium or is it purely a battle between ITA & GEO at this point?

Discuss away!

Based on the scheduling, I would be surprised if the US doesn't split men and ID. Ilia men's short; Jason men's long; C/B RD; C/P or Z/K FD; K/O both pair segments; Liu both women's segments.

 

[skategal]

Bronze is really up in the air.

On paper the Georgians should take it but Italy competing at home could be hard to beat (or they could succumb to pressure.)

Canada is really unpredictable.

Maybe knowing they are underdogs, we will see some great relaxed performances or maybe it will go the same way the GP has gone this season with uneven results.

Also, ice is slippery.

 

[Evgeniafan]

Bronze is really up in the air.

On paper the Georgians should take it but Italy competing at home could be hard to beat (or they could succumb to pressure.)

Canada is really unpredictable.

Maybe knowing they are underdogs, we will see some great relaxed performances or maybe it will go the same way the GP has gone this season with uneven results.

Also, ice is slippery.

I would love either France or Italy to get Bronze.

 

[Winnipeg]

I would love Canada to be on the podium but it is really unpredictable right now. I really can't say.

 

[Belsornia]

• Do Fear/Gibson compete in the RD or let Bekker/Hernandez have the responsibility for GBR?

I'm confident that Fear/Gibson will skate the team event RD. Team GB will absolutely want them (and the union flag dress) out there front and centre in all the Day 0 broadcasts. They're among the more marketable of the (small cohort of) British medal contenders and have been doing plenty of pre-Olympics publicity; Team GB will want that early broadcast moment and to start building hype for the individual event. And they regularly compete back-to-back events so doing two RDs and an FD in a week shouldn't be a concern for them.

Also, I think Lilah and Lewis will want to do it.

 

[BittyBug]

Bronze is really up in the air.

On paper the Georgians should take it but Italy competing at home could be hard to beat (or they could succumb to pressure.)

I'm not sure that GEO has an edge over ITA.

Pairs - ITA just beat GEO at the GPF
Men - Grassl can best Egadze
Dance - G/F should best D/S
Women - Gubanova vs. Laura Naki Gutmann could go either way

I do agree that skating in front of a home crowd could go either way, but just going by odds one would think that for at least some of them it would be a boost.

 

[Karen-W]

I'm not sure that GEO has an edge over ITA.

Pairs - ITA just beat GEO at the GPF
Men - Grassl can best Egadze
Dance - G/F should best D/S
Women - Gubanova vs. Laura Naki Gutmann could go either way

I do agree that skating in front of a home crowd could go either way, but just going by odds one would think that for at least some of them it would be a boost.

Well, yes, if Italy doesn't split either the men or pairs. Egadze will likely beat either Rizzo or Memola in the FS and I'm quite positive that GhiAmbro will finish dead last in the FS whereas MetBeru could win or finish 2nd in the FS. That's a lot of points you're fronting to Georgia right there, especially in pairs.

 

[BittyBug]

But if they prioritize winning a team medal, they won't split. The only team members who have a likely shot at an individual members are Conti and Macii, and the pairs schedule doesn't pose as much of a conflict with the team event.

 

[Evgeniafan]

Well, yes, if Italy doesn't split either the men or pairs. Egadze will likely beat either Rizzo or Memola in the FS and I'm quite positive that GhiAmbro will finish dead last in the FS whereas MetBeru could win or finish 2nd in the FS. That's a lot of points you're fronting to Georgia right there, especially in pairs.

I don't think Italy should split any teams, if they want the Bronze.

 

[Evgeniafan]

What about France? Do they have a shot? And should Kevin do short and Adam the long? What about dance?

 

[Karen-W]

What about France? Do they have a shot? And should Kevin do short and Adam the long? What about dance?

I think France will be too far back due to pairs & women - hard to imagine any French team finishing even ahead of any other team in the FS, and I suspect the same will be true of whichever woman gets the Olympic spot (Schild or Serna). As far as Kevin & Adam... I think it's a crapshoot who would skate cleaner & potentially higher in the SP. They've both had some real stinker SPs this season.

 

[kwanfan1818]

I'm quite positive that GhiAmbro will finish dead last in the FS

If CAN is in the Final instead of FRA, sure, but Ghilardi/Ambrosini were 13th at Worlds (174) last year, and Les Kovs missed the FS. 3 instead of 4 points is still a gap, but I don't think they'll be dead last in the FS. So far this fall they scored 186 at their first GP and 167 at their second, after 193 at Nebelhorn. Les Kovs' PB was 179 in 2022; they also scored 171 at the OQ in Beijing.

 

[Karen-W]

If CAN is in the Final instead of FRA, sure, but Ghilardi/Ambrosini were 13th at Worlds (174) last year, and Les Kovs missed the FS. 3 instead of 4 points is still a gap, but I don't think they'll be dead last in the FS. So far this fall they scored 186 at their first GP and 167 at their second, after 193 at Nebelhorn. Les Kovs' PB was 179 in 2022; they also scored 171 at the OQ in Beijing.

Yeah, I wasn't thinking about who the 5th team in the FS would be when I made the initial comment, but you're right - if it's FRA then I expect GhiAmbro would finish no lower than 4th.

 

[Allskate]

Based on the scheduling, I would be surprised if the US doesn't split men and ID. Ilia men's short; Jason men's long; C/B RD; C/P or Z/K FD; K/O both pair segments; Liu both women's segments.

Yeah, I'd be surprised if Ilia or C&B decided not to split given how early their individual events are. There isn't a reliable guy other than Jason to put in. At this point, I think it would be Z&K for the other dance spot, but we'll see what happens at Nationals. And then it would pretty clearly be Alysa for the one women's spot.

Do we think that K/O are a lock for the pairs spot?

I assume that the Japanese won't split pairs or dance. They probably will split the men, given the timing of the men's event and that they have two strong men. Kagiyama in the short and Sato in the free? The women is an interesting question. I am assuming that Kaori, Mone, and Ami will be at the Olympics. I guess they don't have to split the women, but they probably will. Maybe Mone in the short and Kaori in the free?

 

[Bulletsdad]

Yeah, I'd be surprised if Ilia or C&B decided not to split given how early their individual events are. There isn't a reliable guy other than Jason to put in. At this point, I think it would be Z&K for the other dance spot, but we'll see what happens at Nationals. And then it would pretty clearly be Alysa for the one women's spot.

Do we think that K/O are a lock for the pairs spot?

I assume that the Japanese won't split pairs or dance. They probably will split the men, given the timing of the men's event and that they have two strong men. Kagiyama in the short and Sato in the free? The women is an interesting question. I am assuming that Kaori, Mone, and Ami will be at the Olympics. I guess they don't have to split the women, but they probably will. Maybe Mone in the short and Kaori in the free?

I think K/O are a lock for pairs unless Efimova gets her citizenship. Then it will depend on which team wins Nationals. I agree with your take on Japan, unless Nakai wins Nationals. In that case, Mone could be out of TE.

 

[Allskate]

I agree with your take on Japan, unless Nakai wins Nationals. In that case, Mone could be out of TE.

It's a tough call. If I were the Japanese federation, I'd want to rely on what international judging panels have done over multiple competitions rather than just Nationals. And I might even look at their success in the SP in particular if that's where they would compete in the TE. Plus, Ami's success depends a lot on landing her triple axel, and it isn't consistent. I think people could reasonably make the argument for either one of them.

 

[Karen-W]

Yeah, I'd be surprised if Ilia or C&B decided not to split given how early their individual events are. There isn't a reliable guy other than Jason to put in. At this point, I think it would be Z&K for the other dance spot, but we'll see what happens at Nationals. And then it would pretty clearly be Alysa for the one women's spot.

Do we think that K/O are a lock for the pairs spot?

I think K/O are a lock for pairs unless Efimova gets her citizenship. Then it will depend on which team wins Nationals. I agree with your take on Japan, unless Nakai wins Nationals. In that case, Mone could be out of TE.

The USFS has gone with highest placement from the most recent Worlds/highest WR when deciding who to use in the TE in the past. If that remains the case then a split assignment for ice dance would only go to ZingKol if CarPon don't make the team. CarPon were 5th at Worlds last year & are currently 6th in the WR to ZingKol's 8th. GreenP's WR is 11th, so I suppose it's possible they could get the nod since they've been to Worlds twice while ZingKol have never been, but I tend to think the USFS would probably choose ZingKol over GreenP.

KamO are 6th in the WR, EfiMit are 9th. Given they finished 6th & 7th at Worlds, and KamO have two GP medals, I suspect that KamO would still get the nod over EfiMit should she get her citizenship in time unless EfiMit beat them at Nats again. KamO are a lock over any other US team, for sure.

For the women - Amber's WR is 3rd, Isabeau is 4th and Alysa is 5th. But, Alysa is the reigning WC and just won the GPF, so I find it really hard to think the USFS would put anyone else but her in the TE even if she fails to win Nats.

I assume that the Japanese won't split pairs or dance. They probably will split the men, given the timing of the men's event and that they have two strong men. Kagiyama in the short and Sato in the free? The women is an interesting question. I am assuming that Kaori, Mone, and Ami will be at the Olympics. I guess they don't have to split the women, but they probably will. Maybe Mone in the short and Kaori in the free?

Japan will only have a dance team for the TE, so they definitely won't be splitting dance.

I'm guessing the same for the rest though, with Yuma/Shun for the men and some split between Kaori/Mone for the women.

 

[PRlady]

Up til this past weekend I’d have said Japan had the best steady seconds in singles of anyone, Shun and Mone are very consistent. Then Mone blew her FS. Meaning Nakai might get it instead, despite the treacly music, she skates it well.

 

[Allskate]

The USFS has gone with highest placement from the most recent Worlds/highest WR when deciding who to use in the TE in the past.

Here's the link for the current USFS rules:

2026_FSK_Athlete_Selection_Procedures_FINAL_OLY.pdf - U.S. Figure Skating

2026_FSK_Athlete_Selection_Procedures_FINAL_OLY.pdf

usfigureskating.org

This is what the applicable team event rules say:

"The selection of athletes/teams for the Team Event will be based on the Discretionary Selection Criteria (Section 7) and discussions with the athletes/teams and coaches. The Calculation of Overall Athlete Performance Data (Appendix B) and body of work of the athletes/teams within the twelve month period will be used to determine which athletes/teams will have priority in competing in the Team Event. The selection of the participants in both the short program/rhythm dance and free skate/free dance will be made with the best strategy for podium placement in the Team Event. The selection decisions for the Team Event will be made by the Senior Director of Athlete High Performance and the respective discipline group.

The determination of which two (2) athletes/teams to substitute will be based on which disciplines have the best opportunity to medal and/or provide the strongest field in the individual events. The disciplines with the best opportunity to medal will have the first option of substitution in the Team Event if the U.S. qualifies for the free skate."

And Section 7's Discretionary Selection Criteria (which applies to both the individual and team events) say:

7.1 DISCRETIONARY SELECTION It has been the experience of U.S. Figure Skating that the athletes who have had the most success at the international level are those who have demonstrated consistent performances as opposed to the athletes who only have a single great performance. Therefore, by using discretionary selection criteria, U.S. Figure Skating can nominate the athletes who have the best chance to win the maximum number of medals at the Games.

7.2 DEFINE THE DISCRETIONARY CRITERIA TO BE USED: To field the most competitive Team, the Selection Committee will take into consideration the criteria set forth below, which includes scores and placements in events, difficulty of the field, performance impact, and head-to-head match ups, to determine the athletes/teams who will have the best chance to win the maximum number of medals at the Games.

• Calculation of performance data of athletes/teams in the athlete pool as listed in Appendix B.
o This data will include competition results and other reports/data relating to detailed results sheets of the competitions listed in Section 5.
o The data will provide a body of work within a twelve-month period that demonstrates the athlete’s/team’s consistency and ability to achieve medal potential scores at the Games.
o The technical elements, program components and total score data derived from protocols after the conclusion of each segment of competition specifically looking at consistency, competitiveness, and trending scores, will be a primary focus on discussing the ranking of the athletes/teams and determining the athletes that will have the most performance impact at the Games
o All athletes in the Athlete Pool will be evaluated on the selection criteria outlined above

CarPom did do well at Worlds and that should help them. But, the rules make it clear that one competition alone does not dicate the choice. I think Z&K have done better than C&P this season. Ultimately, I hope that they choose based on who they think would get the higher score in Milan.

 

[Karen-W]

CarPom did do well at Worlds and that should help them. But, the rules make it clear that one competition alone does not dicate the choice. I think Z&K have done better than C&P this season. Ultimately, I hope that they choose based on who they think would get the higher score in Milan.

Yes, and reading the criteria, a reasonable argument could be made that ZingKol had an outlier score at CoC, while CarPon had an outlier score at SkAm. Removing each team's high & low scores, this is what we're looking at for both of them:

ZingKol - 193.51 Kinoshita Group Cup, 202.67 CoC, 196.02 Finlandia, 193.61 GPF = 194.82 average
CarPon - 192.35 Nebelhorn, 191.23 SCI, 186.03 SkAm = 191.23 average

They're pretty close and we have no idea what sort of work CarPon are doing on their programs right now. If they come to Nats with better material, then I think the USFS may go with them, simply because they've seen CarPon deliver consistently good programs in pressure-cooker environments like Worlds; but they may go with ZingKol who did make the GPF this year.

 

[Allskate]

Up til this past weekend I’d have said Japan had the best steady seconds in singles of anyone, Shun and Mone are very consistent. Then Mone blew her FS. Meaning Nakai might get it instead, despite the treacly music, she skates it well.

Yes, but at SCI Ami finished fourth in the SP and third in the LP and third overall - behind Mone and Isabeau. And Ami doesn't have the senior big competition experience that Mone has.

Like I said, I think you could make the argument either way.

 

[kwanfan1818]

And the rules are written so that, aside from Malinin as the only skater who can beat himself, and C/B who are far above the next US team, the Selection Committee can do what they want for everything else.

 

[Karen-W]

Yes, but at SCI Ami finished fourth in the SP and third in the LP and third overall - behind Mone and Isabeau. And Ami doesn't have the senior big competition experience that Mone has.

Like I said, I think you could make the argument either way.

I'd probably go with Mone over Ami too. Mone has proven to be a rather steady competitor, far moreso than Ami, who has had some iffy skates & at least one pretty major meltdown at J-Nats last year when she was coming in as both the reigning World Jr Bronze medalist and newly-minted JGPF Bronze medalist and wound up 15th.

 

[Allskate]

And the rules are written so that, aside from Malinin as the only skater who can beat himself, and C/B who are far above the next US team, the Selection Committee can do what they want for everything else.

So, they could select the Shibs or the Browns? I don't think so.

 

[Karen-W]

So, they could select the Shibs or the Browns? I don't think so.

Well, @kwanfan1818 isn't wrong, though. The USFS has always tried to give themselves as much leeway and freedom to pick whomever they want, especially with this BOW framework for the selection process. They got a little boxed in more than I think they liked in 2022 with the tiered priority groups, so now we've got some pretty loosely written rules that can be applied in a variety of methods to produce the team they want unless the Nats results are pretty definitive.

 

[Allskate]

Well, @kwanfan1818 isn't wrong, though. The USFS has always tried to give themselves as much leeway and freedom to pick whomever they want, especially with this BOW framework for the selection process. They got a little boxed in more than I think they liked in 2022 with the tiered priority groups, so now we've got some pretty loosely written rules that can be applied in a variety of methods to produce the team they want unless the Nats results are pretty definitive.

It is flexible. In theory, that is so that they can pick the skaters they think will get the highest scores in Milan. They very much do not want the judges at Nationals to be the ones picking the team. They don't think that works well when it comes to picking the strongest team. I suppose they could be dishonest with how they apply the criteria if they want to. But, I would be really, really pissed off if the Shibs get named to the team simply based on a podium finish at Nationals. That does not seem consistent with the rules. The Shibs could have made their case with international panels over the past year, as the rules anticipate, but they didn't.

 

[barbk]

It is flexible. In theory, that is so that they can pick the skaters they think will get the highest scores in Milan. They very much do not want the judges at Nationals to be the ones picking the team. They don't think that works well when it comes to picking the strongest team. I suppose they could be dishonest with how they apply the criteria if they want to. But, I would be really, really pissed off if the Shibs get named to the team simply based on a podium finish at Nationals. That does not seem consistent with the rules. The Shibs could have made their case with international panels over the past year, as the rules anticipate, but they didn't.

Is it more the callers at Nationals rather than the judges that are the issue? Strategically, I'd be looking to pick callers for Nationals that most closely match what would be expected of those who will do the role at the Olympics.