Olympic Team Event: Strategies and Subs! (Threads Merged)

[MR-FAN]

Some international data analytics company is projecting Russia wins gold (and Kaetlyn being off the podium):

https://olympics.cbc.ca/news/article/canada-projected-medal-haul-drops-winter-olympics.html

 

[Frida80]

P/C not doing the team is a bit of a boost for OAR.

I'm rooting for Canada, so here's hoping Patrick can't do maths.

Actually. It’s not. I already factored in P/C winning the SD, so they basically break even. It was always on Patrick.

 

[VGThuy]

I hope Patrick doesn't know that.

 

[Parsley Sage]

Some international data analytics company is projecting Russia wins gold (and Kaetlyn being off the podium):

https://olympics.cbc.ca/news/article/canada-projected-medal-haul-drops-winter-olympics.html

They have Japan winning silver in the team event and Canada off the podium

http://sportsdemo1.gracenote.com/documentation/vmt#demo

(click on Japan in the table on the left)

 

[MR-FAN]

They have Japan winning silver in the team event and Canada off the podium

http://sportsdemo1.gracenote.com/documentation/vmt#demo

(click on Japan in the table on the left)

Nevermind then

 

[MR-FAN]

You guys!!!! YOU GUYS!!!!!!

Men’s SP STARTS IN 24 hours!!!

 

[Coco]

You guys!!!! YOU GUYS!!!!!!

Men’s SP STARTS IN 24 hours!!!

I know!!! I know!!! I know!!!

Four years of waiting and it's finally HERE!

 

[coppertop1]

Come on, Patrick!!

 

[screech]

Official confirmation from Skate Canada that D/R and Patrick will be skating tomorrow's short programs.

No word on any of the other events. I'm assuming the roster for the next day will be shared tomorrow.

 

[coppertop1]

Official confirmation from Skate Canada that D/R and Patrick will be skating tomorrow's short programs.

No word on any of the other events. I'm assuming the roster for the next day will be shared tomorrow.

What time?

 

[skatingguy]

Cross Posting from the Olympic thread:

Team Leaders meeting is scheduled for 10 am Thursday Korea time - in about four hours - where they will put forward the entries for the pairs and men's short program entries.
10 am Saturday Korea time - confirmation is due for the ladies & ice dance short program entries.
1:15 pm Sunday Korea time - confirmation for the pairs free skate.
3:30 pm Sunday Korea time - confirmation for the men's, ladies, and ice dance free skates.
http://www.isuresults.com/schedules/OWG2018_ColouredTimeSchedule.pdf

Official confirmation from Skate Canada that D/R and Patrick will be skating tomorrow's short programs.

No word on any of the other events. I'm assuming the roster for the next day will be shared tomorrow.

What time?

 

[coppertop1]

8 PM Eastern time

Are Savchenko/Masson competing?

 

[Spun Silver]

^ They already said they were, as a warmup. Just the SP obviously.

 

[coppertop1]

^ They already said they were, as a warmup. Just the SP obviously.

Ok. Germany is unlikely to move on so they won’t tire themselves out.

 

[screech]

I'm not sure if this has been answered, but how are ties in points broken?

Like right now both Japan and OAR each received 10 points in one event and 3 points in the other, but Japan is listed in 3rd place overall and Russia in 4th. It's not even a case of having the same points total (13), but the exact same placements in the separate events as well.

 

[Vash01]

I'm not sure if this has been answered, but how are ties in points broken?

Like right now both Japan and OAR each received 10 points in one event and 3 points in the other, but Japan is listed in 3rd place overall and Russia in 4th. It's not even a case of having the same points total (13), but the exact same placements in the separate events as well.

Great question. I would like to know too. It could become a big issue if two or more teams are tied for the 5th place, which one moves on to the next round?

 

[volturemean]

Canada has the gold guaranteed already, yipee! Thanks talented no good Kolyada for bombing and ensuring it for us.

 

[VGThuy]

Repost:

If Bradie and the Shibs do well in their TE competitions, and if the US somehow finds itself close to silver medal contention, I can see the USFS rethinking using Mirai for the LP and just going with safe Bradie thus opening the door to replace the Shibs with one of C/B or H/D thinking C/B and H/D have potential like the Shibs to beat B/S in the FD.

 

[nickp]

I think Canada was always gonna win Gold. But I hope USA still has a shot at a team medal We’ll see

 

[volturemean]

Repost:

If Bradie and the Shibs do well in their TE competitions, and if the US somehow finds itself close to silver medal contention, I can see the USFS rethinking using Mirai for the LP and just going with safe Bradie thus opening the door to replace the Shibs with one of C/B or H/D thinking C/B and H/D have potential like the Shibs to beat B/S in the FD.

All 3 of C/B, H/D, S/S would have to skate really bad (probably an outright fall) to lose to B/S in the FD. C/B or H/D are probably safer since they havent had a bad FD skate all season, while S/S had 1 at U.S Nationals even if that was the only one. More likely H/D if they use one. It is a bit different if Canada decides to split V/M and W/P and put W/P in the free dance as they arent certain to beat the U.S entry like V/M are, but also have way more potential to beat the U.S entry than B/S who are a way worse team than W/P do.

I dont see the point of using Mirai at all when Bradie has been more consistent and strong all season though. It seems a sentimental thing more than anything logical. And I love Mirai and hope she uses her triple axel to win the bronze in the individual.

 

[VGThuy]

I would think subbing in C/B or H/D for the Shibs is a much safer choice than subbing in Mirai for Bradie...depending if Bradie hits the SP and is hitting it in practice.

 

[volturemean]

I would think subbing in C/B or H/D for the Shibs is a much safer choice than subbing in Mirai for Bradie...depending if Bradie hits the SP and is hitting it in practice.

I agree, that is why I said IMO it is purely sentimental. Which doesnt bother me I guess as I love Mirai, and if anyone deserves a sentimental sub it is her, but there is no strategic logic to it that I see.

That could change now though if Kolyada's bomb means the U.S is in the chase for silver now, where before I think the belief was they were certainly bronze, no chance of higher or lower, so could just make a sentimental choice for someone like Mirai. I think most likely Russia will still have the silver all but locked up after the next round of skates though, especialy as the pairs has already pretty much righted things for Russia (not vs Canada but vs the U.S) and they can still make the sentimental choice of subbing Mirai to give her a free Oly medal instead of the more logical one of subbing H&D or C&B, without hurting the teams chances.

 

[VGThuy]

That makes sense. You know I would love nothing more than to have the Shibs have a redemption FD in the TE and scoring exceedingly well leading into the individual Ice Dance competition, but I was thinking if the U.S. somehow can beat OAR in the LPs depending on Adam beating Kolyada by some way and SK/K beating Z/E in pairs and the Shibs beating B/S in the SD...what the U.S. can do in ladies and ice dance. I guess Bradie and Mirai both have a similar chance of placing 3rd and 4th (depending if Caro doesn't do the LP and thus Italy most likely having a 5th place ladies placement).

 

[volturemean]

That makes sense. You know I would love nothing more than to have the Shibs have a redemption FD in the TE and scoring exceedingly well leading into the individual Ice Dance competition, but I was thinking if the U.S. somehow can beat OAR in the LPs depending on Adam beating Kolyada by some way and SK/K beating Z/E in pairs and the Shibs beating B/S in the SD...

I think it will depend how much Medvedeva beats Tennell in the ladies short. Which if everyone skates well will probably be quite a lot (something like 1st vs 6th) but Tennell is so consistent that will drop a lot if others make mistakes, since you almost can beat Tennell wont make one. We pretty much know the short dance will have the U.S 3rd and Russia 4th, although I guess Italy could push Russia to 5th.

Of course if Tennell skates well in the ladies short and still places way down the list, that would give the U.S another reason to think maybe it is worth using Mirai in the long phase anyway.

 

[Jarrett]

How is Mirai a worse choice than Bradie in the LP when they will both likely place 5th in the LP if everyone was clean? The ice dance teams are pretty much a wash on points too.

 

[volturemean]

How is Mirai a worse choice than Bradie in the LP when they will both likely place 5th in the LP if everyone was clean? The ice dance teams are pretty much a wash on points too.

Since Mirai probably wont skate clean or close to it. While we almost know Tennell will skate clean or very close to clean, although who knows with Olympic pressure and her inexperience and all but that is the indication from her skating this season. A clean Mirai actually probably has more scoring potential than Tennell, especialy with the triple axel, but she is far less likely to skate clean or even close it, especialy with her < issues.

Tennell is more likely to skate clean than most of her competitors. It is not that anyone thinks she compares well if others do, just look at her votes in the everyone clean short program poll, but she is one of the most likely in the entire field to max her own potential by skating clean. Mirai is closer to the other end in that regard, especialy with her < issues.

 

[VGThuy]

How is Mirai a worse choice than Bradie in the LP when they will both likely place 5th in the LP if everyone was clean? The ice dance teams are pretty much a wash on points too.

That's why I said thinking about it some more, with Caro most likely not doing the LP, both Mirai and Bradie have a similar chance of placing 4th or 3rd even if Daleman melts down and if something unusual happens with Sakamoto. I was just thinking Bradie is a surer bet to take advantage than Mirai.

I think it will depend how much Medvedeva beats Tennell in the ladies short. Which if everyone skates well will probably be quite a lot (something like 1st vs 6th) but Tennell is so consistent that will drop a lot if others make mistakes, since you almost can beat Tennell wont make one. We pretty much know the short dance will have the U.S 3rd and Russia 4th, although I guess Italy could push Russia to 5th.

Of course if Tennell skates well in the ladies short and still places way down the list, that would give the U.S another reason to think maybe it is worth using Mirai in the long phase anyway.

I think the Shibs can place second in the SD since P/C won't be there. In my heart I think they can actually place first because their SD is just that good, but my head knows better.

 

[Jarrett]

Since Mirai probably wont skate clean or close to it. While we almost know Tennell will skate clean or very close to clean, although who knows with Olympic pressure and her inexperience and all but that is the indication from her skating this season. A clean Mirai actually probably has more scoring potential than Tennell, especialy with the triple axel, but she is far less likely to skate clean or even close it, especialy with her < issues.

It doesn't matter. In the LP there are only 5 skaters the worst either Bradie and Mirai can do is 5th. Yes it somehow Mirai is clean her base score is much higher then Bradie. If Bradie is clean she is still most likely 5th if Carolina is skating. Overall scores have nothing to do with the final outcome.

 

[MRani]

I think it will depend how much Medvedeva beats Tennell in the ladies short. Which if everyone skates well will probably be quite a lot (something like 1st vs 6th) but Tennell is so consistent that will drop a lot if others make mistakes, since you almost can beat Tennell wont make one. We pretty much know the short dance will have the U.S 3rd and Russia 4th, although I guess Italy could push Russia to 5th.

Of course if Tennell skates well in the ladies short and still places way down the list, that would give the U.S another reason to think maybe it is worth using Mirai in the long phase anyway.

The SD, if all goes as expected, should have US 2nd and probably Russia 3rd, since P/C aren’t skating.

I thought Nathan was rock solid as far as the SP goes and we saw what happened. Even Bradie isn’t a guarantee of consistency when it comes to Olympic pressure. Fingers crossed she’ll perform like she did at Nationals but it’s not a sure thing (although she’s still the best bet the US has for the SP). Super impressed with how S-K/K handled themselves though. They definitely added a couple of much needed points to the US standings.

 

[volturemean]

It doesn't matter. In the LP there are only 5 skaters the worst either Bradie and Mirai can do is 5th. Yes it somehow Mirai is clean her base score is much higher then Bradie. If Bradie is clean she is till most likely 5th. Scores have nothing to do with the final outcome.

There is a very good chance Bradie would not be 5th since atleast someone else will make a lot of mistakes and she wont. We know Osmond is an inconsistent LP skater (if she does the LP phase), Kostner if Italy makes the final is a total wild card and could easily make enough mistakes for a clean Bradie or clean Mirai to capatilize on, Miyahara if she does the LP can easily be hit with a lot of < calls. Bradie is more likely to skate clean and capatilize on openings from others problems (besides Russia) and possibly place higher, while Mirai who herself is likely to have mistakes, especialy < calls, would not.

Anyway if a team like China or France makes the final the either U.S entry would be favored to beat her.