Missing ladies at the Olympics since 1984

[VGThuy]

I totally agree. I felt she deservedly won 2003 Worlds with no 3/3 and I think only 6 triples over Sokolova who had two 3/3s. Her skating was that much better. But would I have felt that way at an Olympics? I'm not sure. The Olympics to me is the ultimate achievement. Much much more than Worlds. I guess I want to see people skating their 100% best at the Olympics. To scale down and go cautious for the Olys kind of defeats what I value in the event. It would be similar to if Alyona skates clean without attempting a 3axel while Sasha goes for her quads. I much prefer Alyona to Sasha, and in any event except the Olympics I would be fine with Alyona winning. But if Sasha comes out at the Olympics and hits her program I'd give it to her. Of course with COP the math would do the job and not just depend on the "feelings" of the panel on that day. I really hope Sasha goes to the Olympics over Alyona because she could absolutely demolish the field if she's clean. Of course she never is, but Sarah Hughes never landed two 3/3s in one program until the Olympics either. All it takes is hitting at the right moment. An "Olympic moment". It's just my opinion.

How did you feel about Shizuka slowly and cautiously doing five triples to gold in Torino? Baiul winning with like 3-4 clean triples and no triple combination and making an error on her combo in the SP (her gorgeous SP)? Yamaguchi taking a risk with a 3Lz/3Toe but then falling out of a Triple Sal and doubling a Triple Loop? Witt doing like 3 triples in Carmen? Even Peggy Fleming made major errors in her free skate. Dorothy talked about mistakes in hers. Scott Hamilton doubled nearly all of his jumps in his LP. Speaking of Hamilton, let's look at the mens side and all the mistake-ridden programs that won gold.

 

[ЭPiKUilyam]

How did you feel about Shizuka slowly and cautiously doing five triples to gold in Torino? Baiul winning with like 3-4 clean triples and no triple combination and making an error on her combo in the SP (her gorgeous SP)? Yamaguchi taking a risk with a 3Lz/3Toe but then falling out of a Triple Sal and doubling a Triple Loop? Witt doing like 3 triples in Carmen? Even Peggy Fleming made major errors in her free skate. Dorothy talked about mistakes in hers. Scott Hamilton doubled nearly all of his jumps in his LP. Speaking of Hamilton, let's look at the mens side and all the mistake-ridden programs that won gold.

Interestingly, I really like Cohen's Olympic FS out of most of her skates because she gave it her all. I don't think I've ever rewatched Shizuka's program because it was cautious and blah. But the math worked it out who won thank goodness. If it was the old system, I might have even put Cohen ahead because she gave it 100%. No guts, no glory kind of thing. As for Nancy/Oksana, I admit, I was totally biased against Kerrigan. I didn't like her tacky jazzercise choreography and I just thought she was a very dull and unpleasant person. I can't be impartial, even though it seems obvious Kerrigan was the clear winner. If only she hit that opening 3flip.... So I admit my biases. With Orser/Hamilton, I felt Orser should have won both the SP and the LP, and he might have, but I don't know how perfect Hamilton's figures were and Orser had a reputation of having bad figures. So I don't know if Orser wuz robbed in Sarajevo. The 92 ladies event was really disappointing, everyone made too many mistakes for me to really be invested in the result. But I could see me putting Ito first in the LP for her guts attempting the 3axel near the end. The Olympics is where I like to see guts, I suppose. I'd rather have an Olympic silver than a World gold. I know some people think the Olympics are overblown and it's just another competition that happens every four years. Well, that's WHY I think the Olys are most important, which is probably why this thread was started in the first place. Gaby Seyfert should have stayed in for 72Olys, as well as Bielmann in 84. They would have been legends had they stayed those extra years and capped it off with an Olympic performance.

 

[Yazmeen]

My problem with Lipinski winning the OGM? She pretty much never did a REAL triple lutz in her entire career. You'd see her glide backwards on her outside edge, and then just as she was about to pick in, she switch over to such a deep inside edge that it looked positively painful - I was always surprised she never ended up with an injured ankle. As far as I'm concerned she did multiple triple flips in her programs and should have been penalized for them. But that didn't happen in those days.

As for Cohen? Same thing. I still remember someone on another skating board furiously insisting she didn't flutz, and some smartyboots proceeded to answer the post with at least 9 screen captures clearly showing Cohen on her inside edge in the lutz corner before picking in.

 

[Marco]

Oh I agree that Kwan skated an OGM worthy skate. And yes she did win the SP at Olys. But I really think Kwan lost her aura when she scaled back to only a 3toe in the SP. Her performances at Nationals were otherworldly, even to me. Her SP there had so much build up. First time since Worlds 1995 that she attempted 3flip in the short. ABC already showed us her practicing it in practice and falling so we were nervous that she'd miss it and so I thought when she went for it that it was courageous. And admirable. And then BAM she hits it and the performance took to a whole new level. So when she went to Olys I think people were expecting that MAGIC. She had zero magic in Nagano. I think it was her other-worldly performances in Philly that came back to haunt her. Especially her SP, because we all knew she was coming off an injury and how totally brave she was to go for the 3flip. And we all went crazy when she landed it. But then, come Nagano, she no longer was injured, yet she still watered her SP down. It was a letdown. The opposite of courageous. And admirable. At least it was for me, and I really don't think I am the only person who felt that. Including judges. I'm not slamming Kwan, I much prefer her skating to Lipinski.

I totally get your sentiment but unfortunately given her issues at the time it was the best she could do. At Nationals both Kwan and Lipinski were probably assured that they would be at the Olympics so there was less pressure. At the Olympics though one mistake in the short would take them out of gold contention (as it did for Kwan at 1997 Worlds) whereas a clean short with the toe will land her 2nd at worst, and most probably 1st as it did given her big win over Lipinski at Nationals.

As it turned out Kwan had flip jitters at the Olympics, always. The flub in the LP at Nagano that got her to become tentative, the UR in the SP at SLC, the fall in the LP at SLC, the fall in practice at Torino that forced to withdraw... etc. I wonder if she would land it if she did it in the SP at Nagano.

Her watering down her SP compared to her competitions for so many years was disappointing. I think it helped Bute and Slute and others gain their reputation. If Kwan from 1996 on had been doing 3flip in the SP, she would have cemented her distance from the field, and her competitors would have needed to really work on their second mark. Instead, we saw cautious Kwan winning while being out jumped for years. Eventually it became boring.

Did Kwan cautiously win while being outjumped for years? She came off a huge loss at Nagano while being outjumped, and then lost 99 Worlds while being outjumped, and then started regularly losing to Slutskaya while being outjumped. She managed to win Worlds in 2000 and 2001 only when Slutskaya failed to outjump her / those jumps were flawed. She again lost to Hughes at SLC while being outjumped, and then to Cohen and Arakawa in 2004. And it was downhill from there.

She only really managed to cautiously win while being outjumped in 2003 Worlds but it was freaking Sokolova.

 

[skateboy]

But yet in Nagano she switched back from 3flip in the SP to 3toe...hmmm

That's what I don't get. If Kwan broke the toe on her left foot, then (assuming it was still tender) picking in for the toe loop would have been excruciating. Seems like she would have had better luck -- and comfort -- doing a flip.

Other then her issues at the Olympics, Michelle usually had a very solid 3F. She herself has said that the loop was her worst triple, although she usually did them very well.

 

[ЭPiKUilyam]

Did Kwan cautiously win while being outjumped for years? She came off a huge loss at Nagano while being outjumped, and then lost 99 Worlds while being outjumped, and then started regularly losing to Slutskaya while being outjumped. She managed to win Worlds in 2000 and 2001 only when Slutskaya failed to outjump her / those jumps were flawed. She again lost to Hughes at SLC while being outjumped, and then to Cohen and Arakawa in 2004. And it was downhill from there.

She only really managed to cautiously win while being outjumped in 2003 Worlds but it was freaking Sokolova.

I was mainly thinking just about the short program. For years she stayed with the 3toe while others had either the 3loop or 3flip. And kept winning the SP.

 

[Marco]

I was mainly thinking just about the short program. For years she stayed with the 3toe while others had either the 3loop or 3flip. And kept winning the SP.

She did the toe in the short from 96 to 99 GPF and really didn't quite dominate the short in major comps then.

95 Worlds: flip but only 4th behind others with toe or mistakes
96 Worlds: toe and same for Chen being her only other competition
97 Worlds: toe and mistake left her in 4th
98 Olympics: toe and won, but her closest competition skated much earlier
98 Worlds: toe and won, but the Russians made mistakes and others incurred many deductions
99 Worlds: toe and mistake left her in 4th
00 Worlds and onwards: flip and never won the short again at Worlds until SLC and 03 Worlds

If you count the GPs and Nationals etc the quality difference between her and other competitors might be why.

 

[olympic]

How did you feel about Shizuka slowly and cautiously doing five triples to gold in Torino? Baiul winning with like 3-4 clean triples and no triple combination and making an error on her combo in the SP (her gorgeous SP)? Yamaguchi taking a risk with a 3Lz/3Toe but then falling out of a Triple Sal and doubling a Triple Loop? Witt doing like 3 triples in Carmen? Even Peggy Fleming made major errors in her free skate. Dorothy talked about mistakes in hers. Scott Hamilton doubled nearly all of his jumps in his LP. Speaking of Hamilton, let's look at the mens side and all the mistake-ridden programs that won gold.

Not directed to me, but I wanted to answer:

IMO, Baiul v. Kerrigan was one of the biggest Olympic travesties. I rewatched those programs many times and from different angles (JPN TV) and Kerrigan beat Baiul on way more elements in an obvious way. Interestingly, watching on JPN TV with higher definition, Baiul's skating looked better (fast, high jumps really showcased with better HD), so I don't hate it as much as I thought, but still doesn't change my mind - besides the jumps that were completed which were first rate, everything else including the choreography was slapdash.

1992 was just a disappointment all around - Kristi won by default in having the least error-laden program.

Witt in 1988 was lucky that the judging system still operated on a seniority system and not everyone was at their best.

Peggy said in the 1980s that her husband teased her by humming the opening notes of her Olympic LP, knowing that it would annoy her because she knew it wasn't her best

 

[Foolhardy Ham Lint]

Gaby Seyfert should have stayed in for 72Olys, as well as Bielmann in 84. They would have been legends had they stayed those extra years and capped it off with an Olympic performance.

I believe Denise turned pro because her family ran out of money supporting her eligible career. Her win in 1981 was at least a decade before amateur skaters could make any money out of the sport.

I love that Biellmann considered reinstating for the 1994 Olympic Games, and from memory, her training regimen was insane.

It makes sense, because she literally beat skaters like Baiul, Sato, and Witt in every event the next season in pro competition.

 

[bardtoob]

I love that Biellmann considered reinstating for the 1994 Olympic Games, and from memory, her training regimen was insane.

It's still insane

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[IceJunkie]

Granted a cautious Kwan would still be 6 triples completed in average. Five triples was a bad day for her.

I find it interesting that thing Kwan gets the most praise for, she also gets the most stick for. She was consistent, and rarely deviated from her mean. I remember Frank mentioning in his interview with TSL Michelle had the best body awareness of any student he'd coached, and that wasn't just a praise of her line, positioning, etc, but also the fact she knew how many triples her body could take, how many run throughs she could do. I think she knew she wanted a long career and even as a teenager had an understanding that she had to make sacrifices in her training/programs for that. Did it make her career somewhat less exciting? Arguably, but it also got her a decade-long steady career.

 

[Marco]

I find it interesting that thing Kwan gets the most praise for, she also gets the most stick for. She was consistent, and rarely deviated from her mean. I remember Frank mentioning in his interview with TSL Michelle had the best body awareness of any student he'd coached, and that wasn't just a praise of her line, positioning, etc, but also the fact she knew how many triples her body could take, how many run throughs she could do. I think she knew she wanted a long career and even as a teenager had an understanding that she had to make sacrifices in her training/programs for that. Did it make her career somewhat less exciting? Arguably, but it also got her a decade-long steady career.

Sadly she succumbed to the pressure and criticism of "not upping the ante" and started trying loop combos circa 2001 thereby planting the seed causing her career ending hip injury; and after a few seasons of laying low she started to go for lutz/toe and flip/toe combos again in summer 2005 which unfortunately further aggravated her injury to the point of no return.

 

[skateboy]

I think she knew she wanted a long career

See, I saw it differently. I always thought that Michelle was fixated on the Olympic Gold Medal. (Not that she's the only one, or that there's anything wrong with that, lol.)

In Kwan's case, she went into '98 as the expected gold medalist, she skated great and thought she had it, but didn't. I always felt Michelle would have done a "Tara" and retired immediately, had she won the gold medal. (Just my opinion.)

So she went for '02 and got the bronze. Then... she decided to go for '06, got named to the team (nobody knows how she was skating at the time), went all the way to Torino and had to drop out because of injury.

But... she didn't announce retirement (never did). I'll bet she was looking toward '10, and only opted out when she realized the gold medal wasn't in the cards.

Don't take me too seriously. Just some thoughts. I've always respected Michelle as a first class skater.

 

[Coco]

Yes, there were rumors of training for a comeback in 2009. Who knows how serious the flames were behind that smoke, but I did get overly - excited when I saw her do a reverse entrance into her corkscrew spin. I took that as her looking at ways to get an higher level layback

Michelle Kwan 2009 Ice All Stars - Winter Song

Michelle Kwan "Winter Song" by Sarah Bareilles with Ingrid Michaelson - 2009 Samsung Anycall-Hauzen Ice All Stars (2009-08-14 Seoul, South Korea)

youtu.be

 

[bardtoob]

See, I saw it differently. I always thought that Michelle was fixated on the Olympic Gold Medal.

Even those that get it are fixated on it ... As Carol Heiss's mother said:

"I'm delighted about everything. What would you want me to say? There would never be any champions if people were willing to settle for second, third or fourth."

... I guess unless you're Jason Brown.

 

[Foolhardy Ham Lint]

I stumbled across this interesting interview done six years ago with Jill quite by chance.

World Arena Oral History Project: Jill Trenary

Jill Trenary discusses her time figure skating at the old Broadmoor World Arena.

vimeo.com

 

[VGThuy]

Kwan may or may not have retired after 1998 had she won gold because real life is like that and maybe she would have been motivated by other things, but she did go on record prior to Nagano saying she wanted to be remembered as one of the greats of the sport and said she wanted to continue to 2002 and even 2006. When some reporters pushed back on 2006 saying she would be 25 then, Kwan said why not, Kerrigan was 24 in Lillehammer. Kwan wouldn’t make it to 2006 due to injury before that season started but she was right about a 24-year-old winning gold in 2006, . I do think not winning gold may have motivated her to stay longer when her body seemed to start fighting back. Had she won gold in 1998 she may have skipped a season or so going into 2002 and even if she won both 1998 and 2002, I could see her trying to go for 2006. She loved competing and I think those standing ovations she was receiving became addicting.

 

[briancoogaert]

Kwan may or may not have retired after 1998 had she won gold because real life is like that and maybe she would have been motivated by other things, but she did go on record prior to Nagano saying she wanted to be remembered as one of the greats of the sport and said she wanted to continue to 2002 and even 2006. When some reporters pushed back on 2006 saying she would be 25 then, Kwan said why not, Kerrigan was 24 in Lillehammer. Kwan wouldn’t make it to 2006 due to injury before that season started but she was right about a 24-year-old winning gold in 2006, . I do think not winning gold may have motivated her to stay longer when her body seemed to start fighting back. Had she won gold in 1998 she may have skipped a season or so going into 2002 and even if she won both 1998 and 2002, I could see her trying to go for 2006. She loved competing and I think those standing ovations she was receiving became addicting.

The standing ovations are addicting indeed, you're right. But hard training is not, I guess. That's why I'm not sur she would have continued had she won a Gold (1998 or 2002).

 

[bardtoob]

Regarding Kwan, maybe she stayed on through 2006 because that was her profession, and, like all these athletes that talk about a rough transition after their professional career, Kwan didn't know what else to do if she was not skating.

 

[Fadeevfanboy]

My best guesstimation for Kwan is she does continue at first if she wins in 1998. Maybe doesn't go to worlds 98 with all the endorsements and offers she would have, but good chance she still does anyway (Tara for sure does worlds now, despite whatever cheese excuse she had for skipping which I forget now). I think she competes full time on the amateur circuit rather than doing a bunch of cheese pro ams most of the 98-99 season now too. I think she winds up retiring either sometime before 2000 worlds or right after 2000 worlds now though. Due to UCLA. She was really enjoying her experience there and said so openly, but found competing and school together too much, so felt she had to choose. With the Olympic Gold already in her pocket I think it is pretty unlikely she still chooses competing. We will never know but I lean atleast 80% to that course of events. And if she still wins worlds in 2000, she would be going out on top, all the more perfect. I do think without the positivity of UCLA there is a good chance she competes to 2002 (but not beyond 2002 probably, win or lose) with winning in 98, and it is mainly the UCLA factor why she would retire around that point, if she had the Olympic Gold.

What I am far more curious about, since it is much more of an uncertainty than me, is what happens with Tara if she doesn't win 98. Her hip was already damaged, so it would be interesting to see what ultimately happens. I do think regardless what she claims now, she would have wanted to go for 2002 if she didn't win 98, but whether with her physical condition which nobody knew yet, that would be doable or not.

 

[Fadeevfanboy]

One of my favorite things is skating speculation from past competition, and I wanted to start a thread on prominent ladies missing from each Olympiad due to: (1) retirement within the quad; (2) illness; (3)injury, or (4) even lack of spots from the federation. I start with 1984 because with ordinals in place, that seemed to be the beginning of a dynamic period in skating world:

BTW, if you can think of anyone else, please feel free to add them ...

1984: Denise Biellmann, Claudia Kristofics-Binder, Kristiiina Wegelius, Midori Ito

Biellmann - 1981 World Champ; ahead technically of any other lady w/ a 3Z and improved in figures since Lake Placid (may have been political, but wasn't it always?). She had shown in her career a successful attempt at every triple except the 3F. I believe she landed 4 triples at Lake Placid, which was still ahead of Witt or Sumners in 1984. Does anyone doubt that she would have shaken up the Kat v. Roz show?

Kristofics Binder - 1981/82 World Bronze Medals; 1982 Euro Champ (edging out Witt). A powerhouse in Figures and could get a 3T done for the SP. IIRC, she was usually 1st after Figures when competing. I don't think she would have been a huge medal threat, but she could have screwed with placements of key individuals like Witt or even Sumners in the figures

Wegelius - Retired after 1983 Worlds. Another powerhouse in Figures. Could have messed with the results.

Ito - Failed miserably at 1984 JPN Nationals, but went onto finish 7th at Worlds; was capable of 3L combo in the SP, which was a big deal at the time. However, finished terribly in figures.

1988: Caryn Kadavy, Tracey Wainman

Kadavy - 1987 World Bronze Medalist and US team member in 1986 and 1987. As we all know, she WD after the SP due to influenza. IDK if she could have threatened for a medal because judging by the Figures and SP. It looked like she was getting dumped. She also did not fare well at 1988 Worlds but that could have been lack of motivation after what happened at the Olympics.

Wainman [Canada #2] - What happened to her? She had been around as a young skater post Lake Placid, and even finished top 10 at 1986 Worlds; 5th after Figures. She seemed like a better competitor than Charlene Wong.

1992: Evelin Grossmann, Natalia Lebedeva

Grossmann - Jutta Mueller pupil and GDR star post-Witt, she had some impressive finishes in this Olympic cycle; 7th at 1989 Worlds, 8th at 1990 Worlds; 1990 Euro Champ. Stronger in the LP. Did she simply fall down the rankings in a unified Germany against Westerners like Kiehlmann and Neske?

Lebedeva - Soviet veteran. I realize that her strong suit the figures were gone, but she usually held her own in the SP and LP, but the Unified Team sent Vorobieva and Rachkova. Did she simply retire with the Figures gone?

1994: Olga Markova, Maria Butyrskaya, Michelle Kwan

Butyrskaya's disastrous performance at 1993 Worlds left Russia w/o a competitor in Lillehamer. I assume that Markova and Butyrskaya would have been the probable entries at the Olympics. They were 3rd and 4th at 1994 Euros only behind Bonaly and Baiul, but ahead of Szewczenko. I believe they could have been in the final group. However, I don't think they could have medalled.

Kwan - IF the US had 3 spots, would she have been sent to Lillehamer? Was the penultimate group a reach? She was old enough for Worlds, but was she age-eligible per IOC rules at the time?

1998: Tanja Szewczenko, Krisztina Czako

Szewczenko - I think based on the results at the Olympics and judging by her 1997 CSF finish, she would have been a bronze medal threat at Nagano. Then again, she floundered at 1998 Worlds. Like Chen Lu, her own story was very inspirational. IDK

Czako - IIRC, she broke her leg and couldn't compete. I do think she would have been definite top 10 at Nagano, but how high in this field, IDK

2002: Shizuka Arakawa, Tatiana Malinina

I don't think these ladies at the time would have even influenced the final group, but Arakawa would be top 10 in 2003 and climb to the top of the podium in 2004, which would have made her appearance here interesting. IIRC, JSF had a rule in place that automatically allowed Yoshie Onda to compete at SLC. I think Arakawa would've been a better 2nd choice for JPN behind Fumie.

Didn't Malinina WD after the SP. She was a shadow of her 1999 self, so I don't think her participation would have been impactful to the top 10.

2006: Michelle Kwan, Viktoria Volchkova

BIG one - Kwan. Based on her 2005 Worlds results, she would have finished around 4th w/ Fumie, but would she have been rewarded in PCS skating to Mao's 2010 LP music? She stated in a TSL interview that the music suited her mood at the time. Also, nagging injury since 2002 probably kept her from fulfilling her potential over the previous years. Sasha, Irina and Shiz were pretty much in control at Torino. Could MK have made a difference?

Volchkova - Worth a mention: She was on the comeback trail but reinjured herself prior to Torino (?). Slute and Cupcake were still probably the best from Russia, but Vika was always in the running at Worlds around 2003 and 2004

2010: Yukari Nakano, Ashley Wagner, Sasha Cohen

Nakano - Medal threat in 2008; arguments could be made that team should have been Mao, Akiko and Yukari due to Miki's poor finish at JPN Nationals. Would she have performed better than Akiko or Miki at Vancouver? She had a 3A, but I think URs crept in which were deadly in this olympic cycle.

Wagner - Also worth a mention. Pre-Nicks and Raf, I don't know if she had the goods overall to finish beyond 10th place or so, but she could have been the #3 American behind Flatt and Nagasu.

Cohen - She finished 4th at US Nationals, but if she had made a theoretical US team w/ 3 spots, would the judges have rewarded solid programs? I don't think she could have been a threat to Joannie Rochette and her inspirational skates, though. Also, I don't even know if she would have beaten Nagasu in 4th that night.

2014: Anna Pogorilaya

I don't recall competitors missing from Sochi as such, but Russia only had 2 spots. Pogo as the #3 Russian lady would have been a strong competitor and may have landed in the final group based on 2014 World Championships.

2018: Ashley Wagner

Wagner - SIGH. 2016 World Silver Medalist. The final results for US ladies was abysmal, I do think she could have done at least a little better than 9th, but maybe not

THANKS for reading, and I would enjoy any input.

1984- All those you named already. I guess I would add Vikki De Vries. She was one of the top US skaters of this quad, and a serious contender to make the Olympic Team. With Zayak being very subpar at Nationals there is a very high chance she could have bumped her clean off the team had she competed and skated decently. Although she did miss the 83 World Team when a flawed long program dropped her from 2nd to 4th, so the writing might have been on the wall. Had she made the Olympics she might have a better shot than both Chin and Zayak, as she was better in figures and could place respectably enough in them to stay in contention, and Ivanova won bronze with only a 5th in figures and a bad long program. Although she still would have needed one of her best competitions ever to medal, she could have been another who could have shaken things up in the various placings, maybe even helped Chin win the bronze over Ivanova too.

I would add Tracy Wainmann for both 84 and 88. She was more of a force in the early part of the 80-84 but retired for awhile after a disaesterous 83 Nationals. Although the way she was skating by then it would be unlikely she could bump Kay Thomson or Manley off for 1 of the 2 Olympic spots. In the early part of the quad she was a contender in some events though and won Skate Canada 81 over a strong international field that had Kristofics Binder, Hill, Manley, Sumners, Ivanova.

1988- Tiffany Chin I would add as well. She was already being called the early favorite for the Olympic Gold by some after the 84 Olympics, then she is retired before the 88 Olympic Trials/US Nationals. She wouldn't have been favored for the team anyway though after dropping the 4th at the 87 Nationals. She had been on a gradual decline since 84 but still won the 85 Nationals and bronzes at the 85 and 86 worlds, and 86 Skate America in a weak field. Kadavy, Trenary, Thomas would still have been favored for the 3 spots, and the only question is if Chin could have played spoiler. Even with mistakes at Nationals, Chin would have needed her best outing in years to do that though.

1992- I am not what happened with Grossmann. It was strange she was not sent to the 91 worlds after being 2nd, top German, at the 91 Europeans. Her bio says she was only 5th at the 92 German Nationals, so that is obviously why she wouldn't have been sent to Europeans, Olympics, or worlds that year. She probably just became too inconsistent and headcasey, so there is no reason for her to have been dropping behind Neske and Lang who could do even less jumps than she could.

Lebedeva retired after the 90 Goodwill Games where she had a very bad outing and came 7th, her first post figures event. I think she was on the fence whether to continue at that point, and her very poor and dissapointing performance there might have swung her the other direction. With the weak Soviet Union field she probably atleast considered still going for the Olympics for awhile. I think that she was beaten by Rachkova was also a factor in her stopping then, but I think it might have been a hasty decision as she didn't skate well, but maybe it wasn't just figures being dropped, and maybe she was finding she was getting too old and losing her consistency more even with her two simpler triples she did.

1994- It would have been great to see Markova and Butyrskaya at the Games. I agree they could have made the final flight with a clean short, but also agree neither would have medaled. The 3 medalists all skated too well for either to have broken in, especialy as neither one was that big a name at this point. Either one could have been top 5 or 6 with a decent competition though (both were really inconsistent skaters though) and maybe shaken some things up with ordinals perhaps.

I think Kwan was capable of the penultimate flight for sure, and barely a top 10ish finish possibly. The competition in Lillehammer was not that strong or well skated after the first 4 or 5. Harding and Chouinaurd who came 8th and 9th both did not have a good competition at all, then after that you had Rechnio, Czako, and Kajas who had decent outings in the LP anyway.

You forgot some big ones here though. One is Karen Preston. She was a very regular top 10 world level skater in the whole 91-93 period, even if she missed 91 worlds after a bad Nationals free skate. She was a fluke 6th place ordinal for Josee's bad final skate, and crazy consequential ordinal flip from a 5th place finish at the 93 worlds (that one ordinal dropped her from 5th to 8th overall behind Kerrigan, Kiellmann, Szewcenko, the consequrence of dropping from 6th in the LP over Szewcenko to 7th behind her). She had a fairly strong performance at Nationals with one fall and a couple minor mistakes, but was beaten out for the 2nd spot by Susan Humphries who had the skate of her life. She definitely would not have medalled in Lillehammer, but I think she could have even potentially been competitive with the Germans (Szewcenko and Witt) who came 6th and 7th. Although she wasn't having a great season, and Josee was firmly Canadian #1 now (and she came only 9th after a bad outing) so maybe she would have struggled to make top 10 at all.

Another is Marina Kiellmann. After being 6th at the 93 worlds, and a regular international competitor for Germany and Europeans medalists before this year. She lost out in the 3 women fight for 2 spots with Witt and Szewcenko. She wound up coming 4th at the post Olympic worlds. She also for sure wouldn't have medaled, but could have shaken things up in the top 10, and possibly the top 6 or 7.

A last one I would add is Yunko Yagiyuma. She competed at every worlds for Japan between 88 and 95, except 94, but somehow only the 88 Olympics, missing out on both the 92 and 94 Olympic teams.

1998- I would say Markova again. She was a regular international competitor for Russia from 94-97, and was close to a medal at the 95 worlds where she was 2nd after the short and 5th overall. Her jump consistency which was never great, had gone downhill since the 95 worlds though. She was 9th at the 98 Russian Nationals so was still competiting. If she had a good outing at Nationals she might have made the Team, and bumped someone like Slutskaya (who was 4th at Nationals but named to the Team later as it was) off the team. She never made it to an Olympics.

Another is Yulia Sotnikova. She would win a bronze at the 99 worlds the next year. She was 2nd at Russian Nationals, Sokolova 3rd, and Slutskaya 4th. She won World Juniors that year. The Russians debated which women to send with Butyrskaya, and she missed the cut in the end after Butyrskaya and Slutskaya finished 3rd and 4th at the Grand Prix final. I don't think she could have medalled in Nagano, but if she had a great competition she could have shaken up some of the ordinals, including maybe in the bronze medal battle.

2002- In addition to Arakawa, I would say Nikodinov and Sokolova.

Nikodinov was 5th at the 2001 worlds but bumped off the Olympic team by Kwan, Cohen, and Hughes. If she had made it to the Games she could have been in the final flight, and been an outside shot for a medal. There was virtually no way to make it though with Kwan, Cohen, and Hughes all skating well at Nationals though. There simply wasn't enough spots.

Sokolova skated well at Nationals where Slutskaya, Butyrskaya, Voltchkova all had mistakes, but she was out of favor politically by then, and Voltchkova per usual made it over her. Voltchkova, per usual, bombed at the Games. She wasn't that strong at the time, wasn't doing the triple-triples she would when she won silver at the 2003 worlds, and her Mishin choreography was pretty awful. Still she possibly could have snuck into the final flight.

2006- Like you I think Kwan would have been competing with Suguri for 4th place. And that is even assuming she was reasonably healthy, and didn't try to skate only slightly less injured than she was when she WD.

She was age ineligible per the rules at the time but still the biggest what if is probably Asada, and to a lesser degree Yu Na Kim. I believe with the current ages rules Asada would have been eligible. She beat Shizuka their last 3 meetings, and Shizuka won with only 5 triples, and whenever Shizuka tried to do triple-triples they were called > typically after 2004. I think if she had been there and held her nerve together, Asada wins for sure. Kim beat Asada to win Junior Worlds. She didn't have a big rep yet, but maybe she does more senior events if she was eligible for the Games. I think she could have been a medal contender with the poor competition, although probably not gold contender.

Nakano is another what if. She had a very good season, but politics and Japanese depth kept her off the team, when some thought she should have gone this year over Ando. She had won bronze at this seasons Grand Prix final, and would be 5th at the post Olympics worlds. She was for sure possible final flight material, but I think is quite unlikely she could have medalled, even with all the mistakes that event. It still would have been interesting to see how she might have done.

2010- Nakano again I agree. I think she would have only been a top 10 finisher though. Probably not done any better than Suzuki did, or as well as Ando (5th) did. She was already past her prime.

Cohen? I don't think she would have been a real medal contender at this point. Even her cleanish short program at Nationals was only scored about equal to both Nagasu and Flatt. She was always an inconsistent jumper even in her prime, and she was now likely past it. And she hadn't done a 3-3 of any sort in years. If she had a great outing with near clean (since totally clean would be impossible for her, especialy at this stage) performances she maybe could have finished top 5 or top 6, and with a good short could definitely be in the final flight for the long.

Wagner? I don't think she would have placed as well as either Nagasu or Flatt to be honest. Top 10 capable if she skated well, for sure.

2014- I would say both Anna and Elena Radionova. If Russia had 3 spots and either one made it, they could have finished top 5 or top 6, and been final flight competitors.

I guess also Miraia Nagasu who would have gone if the US had another spot, or she been chosen after how Nationals went down over Edmunds or Wagner (contrary to the false media hype it is almost certainly Edmunds she is taken over, if she is taken at all). I think she could be top 10, but no more than that. She got ordinaly PCS and GOE when she skated well internationaly by then.

2018 and 2022- nobody that interesting honestly. Ooops except Tuktamysheva for 2022. She could have possibly won the bronze (or even possibly silver if she is replacing Anna or Sasha) with great performances and the 3axel.

 

[gkelly]

She was age ineligible per the rules at the time but still the biggest what if is probably Asada, and to a lesser degree Yu Na Kim. I believe with the current ages rules Asada would have been eligible.

No, the age rules for championships were the same as they are now: must be 15 by the previous July 1.

Both Asada and Kim turned 15 in September of 2005, which is why they were not eligible for the 2006 Olympics or Worlds (or Four Continents).

The only difference was that at that time (but not now), skaters were eligible for nonchampionship senior events, Grand Prix and senior B events, a year earlier than for championship events -- if they were 14 as of July 1.

For that reason they were both eligible to skate in the 2005 Grand Prix. Asada took advantage of that opportunity, winning silver or gold at all her GP events including the GP final, whereas Kim chose to stay on the Junior Grand Prix where she won all her events.

 

[coppertop1]

From 2022

Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
Bradie Tennell
Rika Kihira.

Liza would have gone had Kamila's doping test come in sooner. I thought she could have been in the top five, maybe even on the podium.

Bradie and Rika would likely have been in the Team Event. In the Women's Event, I think Bradie would probably be in the top ten. Had Rika had a great performance she likely would have been a medal threat. The fact that they were injured in part trying to add Ultra C elements so they could compete with the Russians, is so tragic and infuriating.

 

[olympic]

^LOL. I was thinking of this thread for 2022 and you posted. But your memory is better because, for some reason, I could only think of Bradie. Tuk completely slipped my mind.

 

[coppertop1]

^LOL. I was thinking of this thread for 2022 and you posted. But your memory is better because, for some reason, I could only think of Bradie. Tuk completely slipped my mind.

Liza was an outside chance but had the test results come sooner, she would have gone. Watching Rika and Bradie make comebacks this season, their absence from the Olympics is fresh on my mind.

 

[bardtoob]

Liza was an outside chance but had the test results come sooner, she would have gone.

I don't think it made a difference how early the results came in ... They would have been suppressed to accommodate who was favored by the federation.

 

[coppertop1]

I don't think it made a difference how early the results came in ... They would have been suppressed to accommodate who was favored by the federation.

You're probably right. Russia's gonna Russia.

 

[Tak]

For 2022, please add Mai Mihara.
Kudos for what she has achieved after the Olympics.

 

[coppertop1]

For 2022, please add Mai Mihara.
Kudos for what she has achieved after the Olympics.

Yes, definitely. I wonder where Mai would have finished it she was there? She's been amazing this year

 

[Marco]

I don't think it made a difference how early the results came in ... They would have been suppressed to accommodate who was favored by the federation.

Really? Anna, Sasha and Liza (reigning World silver medalist) would have made an equally strong team that could sweep the podium in the individuals and Anna being the reigning World Champ would probably have done as well as Kamila did placement-wise to secure that team gold for ROC.

So if Kamila's test result was already known to Russia and inevitably to the world, why would they risk their 2 gold medals being compromised in any way? My guess is they would have dumped Kamila and sent Liza in place, and ask Eteri to produce the next batch in line for next season. But now that they did send Kamila and the team gold is on the line, Russia has no choice but to defend her.