One of my favorite things is skating speculation from past competition, and I wanted to start a thread on prominent ladies missing from each Olympiad due to: (1) retirement within the quad; (2) illness; (3)injury, or (4) even lack of spots from the federation. I start with 1984 because with ordinals in place, that seemed to be the beginning of a dynamic period in skating world:
BTW, if you can think of anyone else, please feel free to add them ...
1984: Denise Biellmann, Claudia Kristofics-Binder, Kristiiina Wegelius, Midori Ito
Biellmann - 1981 World Champ; ahead technically of any other lady w/ a 3Z and improved in figures since Lake Placid (may have been political, but wasn't it always?). She had shown in her career a successful attempt at every triple except the 3F. I believe she landed 4 triples at Lake Placid, which was still ahead of Witt or Sumners in 1984. Does anyone doubt that she would have shaken up the Kat v. Roz show?
Kristofics Binder - 1981/82 World Bronze Medals; 1982 Euro Champ (edging out Witt). A powerhouse in Figures and could get a 3T done for the SP. IIRC, she was usually 1st after Figures when competing. I don't think she would have been a huge medal threat, but she could have screwed with placements of key individuals like Witt or even Sumners in the figures
Wegelius - Retired after 1983 Worlds. Another powerhouse in Figures. Could have messed with the results.
Ito - Failed miserably at 1984 JPN Nationals, but went onto finish 7th at Worlds; was capable of 3L combo in the SP, which was a big deal at the time. However, finished terribly in figures.
1988: Caryn Kadavy, Tracey Wainman
Kadavy - 1987 World Bronze Medalist and US team member in 1986 and 1987. As we all know, she WD after the SP due to influenza. IDK if she could have threatened for a medal because judging by the Figures and SP. It looked like she was getting dumped. She also did not fare well at 1988 Worlds but that could have been lack of motivation after what happened at the Olympics.
Wainman [Canada #2] - What happened to her? She had been around as a young skater post Lake Placid, and even finished top 10 at 1986 Worlds; 5th after Figures. She seemed like a better competitor than Charlene Wong.
1992: Evelin Grossmann, Natalia Lebedeva
Grossmann - Jutta Mueller pupil and GDR star post-Witt, she had some impressive finishes in this Olympic cycle; 7th at 1989 Worlds, 8th at 1990 Worlds; 1990 Euro Champ. Stronger in the LP. Did she simply fall down the rankings in a unified Germany against Westerners like Kiehlmann and Neske?
Lebedeva - Soviet veteran. I realize that her strong suit the figures were gone, but she usually held her own in the SP and LP, but the Unified Team sent Vorobieva and Rachkova. Did she simply retire with the Figures gone?
1994: Olga Markova, Maria Butyrskaya, Michelle Kwan
Butyrskaya's disastrous performance at 1993 Worlds left Russia w/o a competitor in Lillehamer. I assume that Markova and Butyrskaya would have been the probable entries at the Olympics. They were 3rd and 4th at 1994 Euros only behind Bonaly and Baiul, but ahead of Szewczenko. I believe they could have been in the final group. However, I don't think they could have medalled.
Kwan - IF the US had 3 spots, would she have been sent to Lillehamer? Was the penultimate group a reach? She was old enough for Worlds, but was she age-eligible per IOC rules at the time?
1998: Tanja Szewczenko, Krisztina Czako
Szewczenko - I think based on the results at the Olympics and judging by her 1997 CSF finish, she would have been a bronze medal threat at Nagano. Then again, she floundered at 1998 Worlds. Like Chen Lu, her own story was very inspirational. IDK
Czako - IIRC, she broke her leg and couldn't compete. I do think she would have been definite top 10 at Nagano, but how high in this field, IDK
2002: Shizuka Arakawa, Tatiana Malinina
I don't think these ladies at the time would have even influenced the final group, but Arakawa would be top 10 in 2003 and climb to the top of the podium in 2004, which would have made her appearance here interesting. IIRC, JSF had a rule in place that automatically allowed Yoshie Onda to compete at SLC. I think Arakawa would've been a better 2nd choice for JPN behind Fumie.
Didn't Malinina WD after the SP. She was a shadow of her 1999 self, so I don't think her participation would have been impactful to the top 10.
2006: Michelle Kwan, Viktoria Volchkova
BIG one - Kwan. Based on her 2005 Worlds results, she would have finished around 4th w/ Fumie, but would she have been rewarded in PCS skating to Mao's 2010 LP music? She stated in a TSL interview that the music suited her mood at the time. Also, nagging injury since 2002 probably kept her from fulfilling her potential over the previous years. Sasha, Irina and Shiz were pretty much in control at Torino. Could MK have made a difference?
Volchkova - Worth a mention: She was on the comeback trail but reinjured herself prior to Torino (?). Slute and Cupcake were still probably the best from Russia, but Vika was always in the running at Worlds around 2003 and 2004
2010: Yukari Nakano, Ashley Wagner, Sasha Cohen
Nakano - Medal threat in 2008; arguments could be made that team should have been Mao, Akiko and Yukari due to Miki's poor finish at JPN Nationals. Would she have performed better than Akiko or Miki at Vancouver? She had a 3A, but I think URs crept in which were deadly in this olympic cycle.
Wagner - Also worth a mention. Pre-Nicks and Raf, I don't know if she had the goods overall to finish beyond 10th place or so, but she could have been the #3 American behind Flatt and Nagasu.
Cohen - She finished 4th at US Nationals, but if she had made a theoretical US team w/ 3 spots, would the judges have rewarded solid programs? I don't think she could have been a threat to Joannie Rochette and her inspirational skates, though. Also, I don't even know if she would have beaten Nagasu in 4th that night.
2014: Anna Pogorilaya
I don't recall competitors missing from Sochi as such, but Russia only had 2 spots. Pogo as the #3 Russian lady would have been a strong competitor and may have landed in the final group based on 2014 World Championships.
2018: Ashley Wagner
Wagner - SIGH. 2016 World Silver Medalist. The final results for US ladies was abysmal, I do think she could have done at least a little better than 9th, but maybe not
THANKS for reading, and I would enjoy any input.
1984- All those you named already. I guess I would add Vikki De Vries. She was one of the top US skaters of this quad, and a serious contender to make the Olympic Team. With Zayak being very subpar at Nationals there is a very high chance she could have bumped her clean off the team had she competed and skated decently. Although she did miss the 83 World Team when a flawed long program dropped her from 2nd to 4th, so the writing might have been on the wall. Had she made the Olympics she might have a better shot than both Chin and Zayak, as she was better in figures and could place respectably enough in them to stay in contention, and Ivanova won bronze with only a 5th in figures and a bad long program. Although she still would have needed one of her best competitions ever to medal, she could have been another who could have shaken things up in the various placings, maybe even helped Chin win the bronze over Ivanova too.
I would add Tracy Wainmann for both 84 and 88. She was more of a force in the early part of the 80-84 but retired for awhile after a disaesterous 83 Nationals. Although the way she was skating by then it would be unlikely she could bump Kay Thomson or Manley off for 1 of the 2 Olympic spots. In the early part of the quad she was a contender in some events though and won Skate Canada 81 over a strong international field that had Kristofics Binder, Hill, Manley, Sumners, Ivanova.
1988- Tiffany Chin I would add as well. She was already being called the early favorite for the Olympic Gold by some after the 84 Olympics, then she is retired before the 88 Olympic Trials/US Nationals. She wouldn't have been favored for the team anyway though after dropping the 4th at the 87 Nationals. She had been on a gradual decline since 84 but still won the 85 Nationals and bronzes at the 85 and 86 worlds, and 86 Skate America in a weak field. Kadavy, Trenary, Thomas would still have been favored for the 3 spots, and the only question is if Chin could have played spoiler. Even with mistakes at Nationals, Chin would have needed her best outing in years to do that though.
1992- I am not what happened with Grossmann. It was strange she was not sent to the 91 worlds after being 2nd, top German, at the 91 Europeans. Her bio says she was only 5th at the 92 German Nationals, so that is obviously why she wouldn't have been sent to Europeans, Olympics, or worlds that year. She probably just became too inconsistent and headcasey, so there is no reason for her to have been dropping behind Neske and Lang who could do even less jumps than she could.
Lebedeva retired after the 90 Goodwill Games where she had a very bad outing and came 7th, her first post figures event. I think she was on the fence whether to continue at that point, and her very poor and dissapointing performance there might have swung her the other direction. With the weak Soviet Union field she probably atleast considered still going for the Olympics for awhile. I think that she was beaten by Rachkova was also a factor in her stopping then, but I think it might have been a hasty decision as she didn't skate well, but maybe it wasn't just figures being dropped, and maybe she was finding she was getting too old and losing her consistency more even with her two simpler triples she did.
1994- It would have been great to see Markova and Butyrskaya at the Games. I agree they could have made the final flight with a clean short, but also agree neither would have medaled. The 3 medalists all skated too well for either to have broken in, especialy as neither one was that big a name at this point. Either one could have been top 5 or 6 with a decent competition though (both were really inconsistent skaters though) and maybe shaken some things up with ordinals perhaps.
I think Kwan was capable of the penultimate flight for sure, and barely a top 10ish finish possibly. The competition in Lillehammer was not that strong or well skated after the first 4 or 5. Harding and Chouinaurd who came 8th and 9th both did not have a good competition at all, then after that you had Rechnio, Czako, and Kajas who had decent outings in the LP anyway.
You forgot some big ones here though. One is Karen Preston. She was a very regular top 10 world level skater in the whole 91-93 period, even if she missed 91 worlds after a bad Nationals free skate. She was a fluke 6th place ordinal for Josee's bad final skate, and crazy consequential ordinal flip from a 5th place finish at the 93 worlds (that one ordinal dropped her from 5th to 8th overall behind Kerrigan, Kiellmann, Szewcenko, the consequrence of dropping from 6th in the LP over Szewcenko to 7th behind her). She had a fairly strong performance at Nationals with one fall and a couple minor mistakes, but was beaten out for the 2nd spot by Susan Humphries who had the skate of her life. She definitely would not have medalled in Lillehammer, but I think she could have even potentially been competitive with the Germans (Szewcenko and Witt) who came 6th and 7th. Although she wasn't having a great season, and Josee was firmly Canadian #1 now (and she came only 9th after a bad outing) so maybe she would have struggled to make top 10 at all.
Another is Marina Kiellmann. After being 6th at the 93 worlds, and a regular international competitor for Germany and Europeans medalists before this year. She lost out in the 3 women fight for 2 spots with Witt and Szewcenko. She wound up coming 4th at the post Olympic worlds. She also for sure wouldn't have medaled, but could have shaken things up in the top 10, and possibly the top 6 or 7.
A last one I would add is Yunko Yagiyuma. She competed at every worlds for Japan between 88 and 95, except 94, but somehow only the 88 Olympics, missing out on both the 92 and 94 Olympic teams.
1998- I would say Markova again. She was a regular international competitor for Russia from 94-97, and was close to a medal at the 95 worlds where she was 2nd after the short and 5th overall. Her jump consistency which was never great, had gone downhill since the 95 worlds though. She was 9th at the 98 Russian Nationals so was still competiting. If she had a good outing at Nationals she might have made the Team, and bumped someone like Slutskaya (who was 4th at Nationals but named to the Team later as it was) off the team. She never made it to an Olympics.
Another is Yulia Sotnikova. She would win a bronze at the 99 worlds the next year. She was 2nd at Russian Nationals, Sokolova 3rd, and Slutskaya 4th. She won World Juniors that year. The Russians debated which women to send with Butyrskaya, and she missed the cut in the end after Butyrskaya and Slutskaya finished 3rd and 4th at the Grand Prix final. I don't think she could have medalled in Nagano, but if she had a great competition she could have shaken up some of the ordinals, including maybe in the bronze medal battle.
2002- In addition to Arakawa, I would say Nikodinov and Sokolova.
Nikodinov was 5th at the 2001 worlds but bumped off the Olympic team by Kwan, Cohen, and Hughes. If she had made it to the Games she could have been in the final flight, and been an outside shot for a medal. There was virtually no way to make it though with Kwan, Cohen, and Hughes all skating well at Nationals though. There simply wasn't enough spots.
Sokolova skated well at Nationals where Slutskaya, Butyrskaya, Voltchkova all had mistakes, but she was out of favor politically by then, and Voltchkova per usual made it over her. Voltchkova, per usual, bombed at the Games. She wasn't that strong at the time, wasn't doing the triple-triples she would when she won silver at the 2003 worlds, and her Mishin choreography was pretty awful. Still she possibly could have snuck into the final flight.
2006- Like you I think Kwan would have been competing with Suguri for 4th place. And that is even assuming she was reasonably healthy, and didn't try to skate only slightly less injured than she was when she WD.
She was age ineligible per the rules at the time but still the biggest what if is probably Asada, and to a lesser degree Yu Na Kim. I believe with the current ages rules Asada would have been eligible. She beat Shizuka their last 3 meetings, and Shizuka won with only 5 triples, and whenever Shizuka tried to do triple-triples they were called > typically after 2004. I think if she had been there and held her nerve together, Asada wins for sure. Kim beat Asada to win Junior Worlds. She didn't have a big rep yet, but maybe she does more senior events if she was eligible for the Games. I think she could have been a medal contender with the poor competition, although probably not gold contender.
Nakano is another what if. She had a very good season, but politics and Japanese depth kept her off the team, when some thought she should have gone this year over Ando. She had won bronze at this seasons Grand Prix final, and would be 5th at the post Olympics worlds. She was for sure possible final flight material, but I think is quite unlikely she could have medalled, even with all the mistakes that event. It still would have been interesting to see how she might have done.
2010- Nakano again I agree. I think she would have only been a top 10 finisher though. Probably not done any better than Suzuki did, or as well as Ando (5th) did. She was already past her prime.
Cohen? I don't think she would have been a real medal contender at this point. Even her cleanish short program at Nationals was only scored about equal to both Nagasu and Flatt. She was always an inconsistent jumper even in her prime, and she was now likely past it. And she hadn't done a 3-3 of any sort in years. If she had a great outing with near clean (since totally clean would be impossible for her, especialy at this stage) performances she maybe could have finished top 5 or top 6, and with a good short could definitely be in the final flight for the long.
Wagner? I don't think she would have placed as well as either Nagasu or Flatt to be honest. Top 10 capable if she skated well, for sure.
2014- I would say both Anna and Elena Radionova. If Russia had 3 spots and either one made it, they could have finished top 5 or top 6, and been final flight competitors.
I guess also Miraia Nagasu who would have gone if the US had another spot, or she been chosen after how Nationals went down over Edmunds or Wagner (contrary to the false media hype it is almost certainly Edmunds she is taken over, if she is taken at all). I think she could be top 10, but no more than that. She got ordinaly PCS and GOE when she skated well internationaly by then.
2018 and 2022- nobody that interesting honestly. Ooops except Tuktamysheva for 2022. She could have possibly won the bronze (or even possibly silver if she is replacing Anna or Sasha) with great performances and the 3axel.
. I do think not winning gold may have motivated her to stay longer when her body seemed to start fighting back. Had she won gold in 1998 she may have skipped a season or so going into 2002 and even if she won both 1998 and 2002, I could see her trying to go for 2006. She loved competing and I think those standing ovations she was receiving became addicting.
