So it seems that Rinka is the most likely candidate for the third worlds spot (she is in the top 3 of eligible skaters for both season's best score and world standings).
I would be
for Mone Chiba but hopefully she will at least get 4CCs, assuming Shimada and Nakai go to junior worlds (not sure on the exact junior worlds criteria)
Link to the JSF's international selection criteria document in Japanese as of Sept. 1, 2022:
https://www.skatingjapan.or.jp/common/img/info/20220901_fs_senkokijun.pdf
Machine translation (pages 1-3 are re. the 2023 ISU Championships):
1.
World Figure Skating Championships (3 men's and women's singles, 3 pairs, 1 ice dance)
1) Male and female single
(1) Select the winner of the All Japan Championships [Sakamoto; (likely) Uno].
(2) One person will be selected based on a comprehensive judgment from those who satisfy one of the following conditions.
A) All Japan Championship 2nd and 3rd place athletes [Mihara, Shimada & Nakai are too young, Chiba in 5th is next age-eligible with the senior minimums; men TBD]
B) Top 2 ISU Grand Prix Final entrants [Mihara 1st, Watanabe 4th, Sakamoto 6th; Uno 1st, Yamamoto 2nd, Sato 4th, Miura 5th]
C) His/Her top 3 ISU season best scores at the end of the All Japan Championships
③ Comprehensively judging from those who satisfy any of the following, including the players selected in ①② above,
We will select until we reach 3 people.
A) ② is a player who falls under A) B) C) and was not selected for ②.
B) Top 3 ISU World Standings at the end of the All Japan Championships
C) Top 3 ISU Season World Rankings at the end of the All Japan Championships
D) At international competitions dispatched before the All Japan Championships and domestic competitions[*1] designated by the strengthening department
Season Best Total Element Score [*2] Top 3
(2) Pair ice dance
Selection will be made based on comprehensive judgment from groups that meet one of the following conditions.
A) All Japan Championship Winners, 2nd and 3rd Places
B) Their top ISU World Standing group at the end of the All Japan Championships
C) The group with the highest ISU Season Best Score at the end of the All Japan Championships
* Participation in the All Japan Championships, which is the final selection, is mandatory. (The selection of substitutes is not limited to this.)
However, a player who has a track record of finishing in the top 3 of the world championships in the past may not be able to participate due to unavoidable reasons such as injury.
If the athlete cannot participate in the All Japan Championships, the same athlete before the occurrence of the injury or other circumstances that caused the non-participation
The results of the competition will be evaluated according to the above selection criteria, and the selection may be made while looking at the state at the time of the World Championships.
2.
Four Continents Figure Skating Championships (Men's and Women's Singles, Pairs, and Ice Dance: 3 slots each)
(1) Male and female single
At the end of the All Japan Championships, a comprehensive judgment will be made from those who meet one of the following criteria.
A) Top 10 of All Japan Championships
B) His/Her top six ISU World Standings at the end of the All Japan Championships
C) Top 6 ISU Season World Rankings at the end of the All Japan Championships
D) Top 6 ISU Season Best Scores at the end of the All Japan Championships
E) At international competitions dispatched before the All Japan Championships and domestic competitions[*1] designated by the strengthening department
Season Best Total Element Score [*2] Top 6 players
* Participation in the All Japan Championships, which is the final selection, is mandatory. (The selection of substitutes is not limited to this.)
However, a player who has a track record of finishing in the top 3 of the world championships in the past, due to unavoidable reasons such as injury, etc.
If the player cannot participate in the All Japan Championships, the same player before the occurrence of the injury or other circumstances that caused the non-participation
The results of the competition will be evaluated according to the above selection criteria, and the selection may be made while looking at the state at the time of the Four Continents Championships.
(2) Pair ice dance
Selection will be made based on a comprehensive judgment in consideration of international competitiveness.
* Participation in the All Japan Championships, which is the final selection, is mandatory.
3.
World Junior Figure Skating Championships (2 men's and women's singles, 1 pair, 1 ice dance)
* The final selection of athletes will be decided by the selection committee held at the time of the All Japan Championships.
(1) Male and female single
① Select the winner of the All Japan Junior Championships [Mao Shimada and Nozumu Yoshioka].
②Among the athletes of junior age who wish to be dispatched, comprehensively judge from those who meet any of the following,
Including the players selected in ① above, we will select until we reach 2 people.
A) All Japan Junior Championship 2nd and 3rd place players [Mone Chiba, Ami Nakai; Takeru Amine Kataise, Haruya Sasaki]
B) ISU Junior Grand Prix Final Competitors [Shimada 1st, Nakai 4th, Yoshida 6th; Yoshioka 3rd, Nakamura 4th, Kataise 6th]
C) Top 3 of all Japan Championship participants [Shimada 3rd, Nakai 4th, Chiba 5th, Yoshida 6th; men TBD]
D) His/Her top 3 ISU season best scores at the end of the All Japan Championships
E) International competitions dispatched before the All Japan Championships and domestic competitions[*1] designated by the strengthening department
Season best total element score [*2] top 3 players (excluding All Japan Championships)
◉Definition of season best total element score in the selection item
(Consider the higher of the following two)
- Highest total element score in junior competition
・ From the total element score in the senior competition, the step sequence including GOE
Highest score after subtracting points
* Participation in the All Japan Championships, which is the final selection, is mandatory. (The selection of substitutes is not limited to this.)
However, a player who has a track record of finishing in the top 3 of the World Junior Championships in the past has an unavoidable reason such as injury.
If the player was unable to participate in the All Japan Championships due to [injury?]
It is possible to evaluate the results of the above in light of the selection criteria, and to select while looking at the conditions at the time of the World Junior Championships.
* To be a candidate athlete, the athlete must be a member of the Junior Short Program of the current year at any competition of the current year.
It is necessary to demonstrate the ability to perform the jump task and obtain sufficient points.
(2) Pair ice dance
Selection will be based on a comprehensive judgment, taking into account international competitiveness.
* Participation in the All Japan Junior Championships [late November 2022], which is the final selection, is mandatory.
featured.japan-forward.com
- here's an alternate link that works atm: 
: 
