OK, I'm going with that.
In all seriousness, I appreciate you sharing your knowledge here. Your posts have been very informative.
You're welcome!
IIRC, they had an H1N1 vaccine fairly quickly, within a few months, I think? Was that process easier b/c it was so close to the flu?
RoseRed already answered--H1N1 is just a particular strain of the flu. Evea pn though they have to change the strains that go into the flu vaccine every year, the process of making the vaccine doesn't change. That makes it a lot easier to shift gears if a new strain pops up to cause problems like that.
Personally, I think one year to 18 months for a vaccine is plausible. The sense of urgency, the funding available, the number of different groups working on it around the world, etc. will all serve to make it happen faster than it would in other circumstances. It will be fast-tracked as much as possible. But once an effective and safe vaccine has be found, it will still need to be produced and distributed, which also takes time.
It's within the realm of possibility, but I still think even with essentially unlimited resources and having regulatory fast-tracked (it's a lot easier when the regulatory agency is interested in helping get a product to market and telling you what they want and need to see instead of making you literally guess what they want at times in terms of testing and data), it may take a little longer than that time frame--but not 10-16 years longer. It will take some time to produce enough vaccine for everyone to be vaccinated. Distribution channels are already in place for pharmaceuticals, so it's not like that infrastructure will need to be developed from scratch. I imagine healthcare workers and those more vulnerable to die will be given priority and then the rest of us will follow.
Thank you. I was about throw my vodka bottle though the screen when I read the article.
I was about to throw things too, but not out of panic and despair.
Now I can't decide if I must find that article and read it or whether to avoid it like the plague.
Don't waste your time. The article is an opinion piece full of a lot of bad hot takes.
There's the chart of random vaccines for which development started in the 70's (varicella) and 80's, which is many eons ago when you look at the advances in just the technology used in molecular biology. FluMist was also on the chart, and that's an entirely different ballgame because it is inhaled, not injected. They bring up that there is no vaccine against HIV, which is a comparing apples to horned melons, maybe. In general, it's much harder to make a vaccine that works against a chronic disease (like HIV/AIDS) than those that cause acute infections (like the crud). There's also a timeline that has this 5-7 year block of time between the hypothetical end of phase 3 trials before any manufacturing begins. Then they're going to manufacture vaccine in the factories it took so long to build for a couple of years before we go through the regulatory process..... That is not how things get done.... Especially with something like this..... It does not take 5-7 years to build a factory and get it signed off on as fit for operation. You can build out and get signed off in under a year. New factories will have to be built to meet manufacturing demand in total, but manufacturing will be able to begin in existing facilities. The company I work for has multiple products: We do not have an individual factory for each one of them. Different aspects of getting a vaccine to market are going to run in parallel, not linearly, one thing at a time, on a bizarre extended timeline. It's not how things work for even low priority products. It's especially not how things are going to work for this.
I work in healthcare and get a lot of industry reading articles. And this is not realistic. Just to give you an example untill now the longest time to the to develop has been about six years. So this article wants me to believe that this vaccine will take 10 years. No. I don’t think I’ll bother to read it. I also think that we are probably going to have a vaccine the first part of next year, now it may be a two-part vaccine which tends to be less effective because people will get part one and never go back for part two. but you know can only do so much sometimes, you can’t fix stupid
I posted this elsewhere, but I think it'll be 2-3 doses as an initial series, and then a booster every 5 years. Getting people in for doses beyond the first will not be 100%.
J&J Is spending several millions to ready to plants to produce a vaccine next year. Do you really think they spend that money if they thought I was going to take 10 years? They claim to be able to produce 1 billion vaccines within the first six months. And they have a vaccine already moving down the road toward clinical trials.
This.
To bring things back to skating, still think we'll be lucky if the skaters get to have domestic competitions without an audience next season. At best, I think some places will get to have their nationals. The dream might be a couple of bigger regional competitions next spring (March/April/May 2021). Maybe Euros, a North American competition (primarily US/Canada, maybe a couple of skaters from Mexico, like Donovan Carillo), a competition for the Asian countries, etc. The worst case is things drag out and Beijing gets cancelled in 2022.
From a curiosity standpoint, albeit everyone is going to be rusty when things can start up again, I'm curious to see how competitions might play out where there is no audience reaction factor. Audience reaction isn't supposed to factor into how a performance gets scored, but in reality, judges probably are influenced by hearing the crowd go wild, etc. Without a crowd to go wild, might that influence PCS? Likewise, if we end up with a situation where there is no worlds for the second year in a row and no real international season but things can resume for 21-22 and Beijing goes on as planned, are we in a situation where momentum or lack there of has been wiped out and everyone is on equal footing because it's been so long since anyone has competed in big events?
I also have a suspicion that when skating does resume and if Beijing does go on as planned, it's going to open the door back up for older ladies skaters who don't have quads and who had gone through puberty before the break. Adjusting to a body that has gone through puberty is one thing. Having an extended break from the ice is one thing. Having to contend with those issues together is going to be something else. Technique-wise, it's appeared to me that for the young ladies doing the quads, it's been dependent on having a pre-pubescent body. I'm thinking that puberty+long break from the ice could be a quad jump killer with those skills unlikely to return quickly if at all. If those girls can't do quads anymore going into Beijing, then that changes who has a chance to make Olympic teams and podiums.
To clarify, the Chesapeake Open was canceled b/c clubs were advised by USFS to cancel events through the end of June, and there is no way the comp could have been held regardless....our cases here are still rising, rinks on the east coast are still closed, so who would be ready to compete, etc. About a month ago, it was reported that the state was considering leasing some ice rinks to use if they needed the space but we haven't heard anything until now so I assumed/hoped they didn't need them. The only thing I know about The Gardens is that they did ice maintenance for the first few weeks of closure, hence keeping some employees working. But as the article said, the county where the rink is located has been hard-hit. I guess I shouldn't be surprised. 
from those who were on the 2020 Worlds team. As to how it will be handled, too many unknown factors at the moment, but a great question posed for how they will ultimately resolve it.
At least the loudmouth ones, which is who many organizations tend to listen to. In our area, people are expecting travel hockey to start up late August and I can see some of that crew standing at rinks with their ammo and flags, demanding full-contact hockey with fans in the stands.
