ISU to evaluate feasibility of 2020-21 skating season

Rock2

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Nobody should be factoring herd immunity until it's proven that:
1. Previously Infected people are immune
2. Said immunity will last for at least a few years.

Temperature checks can help pinpoint people who are symptomatic, but asymptomatic people can spread the ***** and people who become very ill later are asymptomatic anywhere for 2 days to two weeks (or longer for outliers). So far studies show that the severity of one's symptoms don't correlate to how infectious they are and what kind of viral load they can expel. So checking temperatures can help uncover cases and bar infectious people from entering facilities but will not do jack sh!t to stop the majority of new transmissions. The only thing that will help is massive (and regular) testing of asymptomatic people coupled with contact tracing to know where the hot spots are, and enforced waves of new lockdowns every time any small cluster arises.
Agree.
Because pan***ics last around 2 years typically I see our indefinite new normal being something like turning the economy back on but with social distancing protocols in public, measures to protect the most vulnerable, and no live events or major gatherings. The infections and deaths will sadly continue but at a contained rate that will amount to a heavy trickle until this is over.

The bulk of our leisure activities, including sports, travel and entertainment are likely to take the hardest hit through all of this.

Just can't realistically see how this plays out otherwise.
 

Dobre

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7,255
I think the way sports happen will have to change for a while, perhaps will change permanently in some ways.

But I also think sports are a perennial. They are one of those things people engage in and support even in difficult times.

We are going to need those nutty hockey parents to keep rinks open. The nuttier the better, maybe? ;)
 

aka_gerbil

Rooting for the Underdogs
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1,912
OK, I'm going with that. :) In all seriousness, I appreciate you sharing your knowledge here. Your posts have been very informative.
You're welcome! :)


IIRC, they had an H1N1 vaccine fairly quickly, within a few months, I think? Was that process easier b/c it was so close to the flu?
RoseRed already answered--H1N1 is just a particular strain of the flu. Evea pn though they have to change the strains that go into the flu vaccine every year, the process of making the vaccine doesn't change. That makes it a lot easier to shift gears if a new strain pops up to cause problems like that.

Personally, I think one year to 18 months for a vaccine is plausible. The sense of urgency, the funding available, the number of different groups working on it around the world, etc. will all serve to make it happen faster than it would in other circumstances. It will be fast-tracked as much as possible. But once an effective and safe vaccine has be found, it will still need to be produced and distributed, which also takes time.
It's within the realm of possibility, but I still think even with essentially unlimited resources and having regulatory fast-tracked (it's a lot easier when the regulatory agency is interested in helping get a product to market and telling you what they want and need to see instead of making you literally guess what they want at times in terms of testing and data), it may take a little longer than that time frame--but not 10-16 years longer. It will take some time to produce enough vaccine for everyone to be vaccinated. Distribution channels are already in place for pharmaceuticals, so it's not like that infrastructure will need to be developed from scratch. I imagine healthcare workers and those more vulnerable to die will be given priority and then the rest of us will follow.

Thank you. I was about throw my vodka bottle though the screen when I read the article.
I was about to throw things too, but not out of panic and despair.

Now I can't decide if I must find that article and read it or whether to avoid it like the plague.
Don't waste your time. The article is an opinion piece full of a lot of bad hot takes. :scream:

There's the chart of random vaccines for which development started in the 70's (varicella) and 80's, which is many eons ago when you look at the advances in just the technology used in molecular biology. FluMist was also on the chart, and that's an entirely different ballgame because it is inhaled, not injected. They bring up that there is no vaccine against HIV, which is a comparing apples to horned melons, maybe. In general, it's much harder to make a vaccine that works against a chronic disease (like HIV/AIDS) than those that cause acute infections (like the crud). There's also a timeline that has this 5-7 year block of time between the hypothetical end of phase 3 trials before any manufacturing begins. Then they're going to manufacture vaccine in the factories it took so long to build for a couple of years before we go through the regulatory process..... That is not how things get done.... Especially with something like this..... It does not take 5-7 years to build a factory and get it signed off on as fit for operation. You can build out and get signed off in under a year. New factories will have to be built to meet manufacturing demand in total, but manufacturing will be able to begin in existing facilities. The company I work for has multiple products: We do not have an individual factory for each one of them. Different aspects of getting a vaccine to market are going to run in parallel, not linearly, one thing at a time, on a bizarre extended timeline. It's not how things work for even low priority products. It's especially not how things are going to work for this.

I work in healthcare and get a lot of industry reading articles. And this is not realistic. Just to give you an example untill now the longest time to the to develop has been about six years. So this article wants me to believe that this vaccine will take 10 years. No. I don’t think I’ll bother to read it. I also think that we are probably going to have a vaccine the first part of next year, now it may be a two-part vaccine which tends to be less effective because people will get part one and never go back for part two. but you know can only do so much sometimes, you can’t fix stupid
I posted this elsewhere, but I think it'll be 2-3 doses as an initial series, and then a booster every 5 years. Getting people in for doses beyond the first will not be 100%.

J&J Is spending several millions to ready to plants to produce a vaccine next year. Do you really think they spend that money if they thought I was going to take 10 years? They claim to be able to produce 1 billion vaccines within the first six months. And they have a vaccine already moving down the road toward clinical trials.
This.


To bring things back to skating, still think we'll be lucky if the skaters get to have domestic competitions without an audience next season. At best, I think some places will get to have their nationals. The dream might be a couple of bigger regional competitions next spring (March/April/May 2021). Maybe Euros, a North American competition (primarily US/Canada, maybe a couple of skaters from Mexico, like Donovan Carillo), a competition for the Asian countries, etc. The worst case is things drag out and Beijing gets cancelled in 2022.

From a curiosity standpoint, albeit everyone is going to be rusty when things can start up again, I'm curious to see how competitions might play out where there is no audience reaction factor. Audience reaction isn't supposed to factor into how a performance gets scored, but in reality, judges probably are influenced by hearing the crowd go wild, etc. Without a crowd to go wild, might that influence PCS? Likewise, if we end up with a situation where there is no worlds for the second year in a row and no real international season but things can resume for 21-22 and Beijing goes on as planned, are we in a situation where momentum or lack there of has been wiped out and everyone is on equal footing because it's been so long since anyone has competed in big events?

I also have a suspicion that when skating does resume and if Beijing does go on as planned, it's going to open the door back up for older ladies skaters who don't have quads and who had gone through puberty before the break. Adjusting to a body that has gone through puberty is one thing. Having an extended break from the ice is one thing. Having to contend with those issues together is going to be something else. Technique-wise, it's appeared to me that for the young ladies doing the quads, it's been dependent on having a pre-pubescent body. I'm thinking that puberty+long break from the ice could be a quad jump killer with those skills unlikely to return quickly if at all. If those girls can't do quads anymore going into Beijing, then that changes who has a chance to make Olympic teams and podiums.
 

misskarne

Handy Emergency Backup Mode
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19,628
Given it is Four Continents and the track record that event has in terms of in-house viewership, at least we can be assured that there will only be about 200 spectators in a 20,000 seat arena.
We're not holding it at a 20,000 seat arena. Quaycentre holds 4000.

If Hanyu comes...we are near enough to Japan that I think it could sell out. Depending, of course, on the situation.
 

greenapple

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835
If Hanyu goes to Four Continents the arena will sell out in minutes. From what I have seen on different forums there are many, many more than 200 people planning on attending - with or without Hanyu.
 

MacMadame

Staying at home
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I also have a suspicion that when skating does resume and if Beijing does go on as planned, it's going to open the door back up for older ladies skaters who don't have quads and who had gone through puberty before the break. Adjusting to a body that has gone through puberty is one thing. Having an extended break from the ice is one thing. Having to contend with those issues together is going to be something else. Technique-wise, it's appeared to me that for the young ladies doing the quads, it's been dependent on having a pre-pubescent body. I'm thinking that puberty+long break from the ice could be a quad jump killer with those skills unlikely to return quickly if at all. If those girls can't do quads anymore going into Beijing, then that changes who has a chance to make Olympic teams and podiums.
I think individuals, especially in resource-rich countries, will be starting back to skating even possibly this year. We know Med was able to do some training in Japan, which means at least some of the Japanese skaters are training even now. So I don't think the 3 As will be shut out. I think they will be shipped to countries that have rinks ope or somehow their rinks will be allowed to continue with modifications. A few other skaters from other countries will also have arrangements made for them.

Also, I do think events will be hard to plan for a while as traveling will be limited and large gatherings won't be happening but I'd be surprised if the ISU the entire season. Plus if there are more localized competitions, international judges will still be at them (ones who live in that country or very nearby), so there will still be a sense of who is doing what. They'll probably be streamed too so that judges and technical specialists can see them.

Of course, we don't know the course this pan-dem-ic will take so who knows. But I think people will make do.
 

Weve3

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2,996
if Beijing does go on as planned, it's going to open the door back up for older ladies skaters who don't have quads and who had gone through puberty before the break. Adjusting to a body that has gone through puberty is one thing. Having an extended break from the ice is one thing. Having to contend with those issues together is going to be something else. Technique-wise, it's appeared to me that for the young ladies doing the quads, it's been dependent on having a pre-pubescent body. I'm thinking that puberty+long break from the ice could be a quad jump killer with those skills unlikely to return quickly if at all. If those girls can't do quads anymore going into Beijing, then that changes who has a chance to make Olympic teams and podiums.
Considering there will be minors (currently juniors) waiting in the wings poised to pickup where the 3A’s left off (and especially in Russia) I’m skeptical.

Raising the age limit is (realistically) the only way to guarantee young phenoms don’t win because they are no longer eligible to compete which, imo, is not the answer and really not advisable or even fair. I am not suggesting you’re implying this, but when posters comment about quads, etc., re younger skaters, quite often, their true intention, motivation and underlying desire — even if subliminal, is to shut down a younger skater(s) participating by simply changing the current age limit - making them too young to compete.

Eta: also, to assume what you’ve suggested, the well (of youthful talent) would have to eventually run dry. I don’t think ..... .. will eliminate future talent from becoming a factor.
 
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Debbie S

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12,120
This is where the Chesapeake Open is held each June before it was cancelled this year.
:eek: To clarify, the Chesapeake Open was canceled b/c clubs were advised by USFS to cancel events through the end of June, and there is no way the comp could have been held regardless....our cases here are still rising, rinks on the east coast are still closed, so who would be ready to compete, etc. About a month ago, it was reported that the state was considering leasing some ice rinks to use if they needed the space but we haven't heard anything until now so I assumed/hoped they didn't need them. The only thing I know about The Gardens is that they did ice maintenance for the first few weeks of closure, hence keeping some employees working. But as the article said, the county where the rink is located has been hard-hit. I guess I shouldn't be surprised. :(
 

Colonel Green

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5,788
NB has no active cases and no new cases for 14 days. Maybe we could hold all the skating events. ;)
New Brunswick and PEI can become the new hotbed for skating training in North America.

Since it's the summer, we promise not to try to trap all the athletes here with winter storms like happened at the last Canadian nationals!
 

Marco

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If a significant part of / the entire 2020-1 competitive season is suspended, the more important question is qualification for the bigger events as we head into the Olympic season.

I am guessing most if not all local comps in the summer and fall would be cancelled. [I am not optimistic about challengers and GPs either] So if Nationals is to be held in December / January, I wonder if the Feds will only be able to use this season's qualifier list again for next season. Similarly, if Euros, 4CCs and Worlds can be held next season but not Nationals, I wonder how the Feds will determine their team - esp. since the world team will determine Olympic spots. Do they use the same team that they were going to send to 2020 Worlds? 12 months can make a big difference.
 

Weve3

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Do they use the same team that they were going to send to 2020 Worlds?
I’m guessing that would get a big 👍 from those who were on the 2020 Worlds team. As to how it will be handled, too many unknown factors at the moment, but a great question posed for how they will ultimately resolve it.
 

Colonel Green

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Similarly, if Euros, 4CCs and Worlds can be held next season but not Nationals, I wonder how the Feds will determine their team - esp. since the world team will determine Olympic spots. Do they use the same team that they were going to send to 2020 Worlds? 12 months can make a big difference.
It's hard to imagine them being able to hold the ISU championships (which require major international travel) but not national-level competitions shortly before that. It's far more likely that the big feds would be able to hold nationals but not major internationals than the reverse.

However, in such a scenario, I can't imagine the feds would just copy-paste the old assignment list. They'd have to take a look at how people were actually doing in whatever training, domestic comps, etc. that had managed to take place. Of course, in many instances countries' big guns would be the same season-to-season.
 

gkelly

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For the US, I think a big question is whether it will be possible to hold regionals and sectionals in October and November, in addition to/aside from fall internationals.

If the answer to that is no, then even if it is possible to hold a competition in January, I don't think there could be a normal Nationals.

If there will be international competitions in February and March, then there might have to be some sort of invitational domestic event in January to choose the teams, but it wouldn't be a national championship in the usual sense.

The same might be true of other federations that usually rely on fall events to determine who qualifies to compete at their nationals.
 
Z

ZilphaK

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Speaking of crazy hockey parents, I'm finding that's where a lot of the "hoaxers" and "it's just old people dying, let us have our hockey" outliers are congregating. :rolleyes: At least the loudmouth ones, which is who many organizations tend to listen to. In our area, people are expecting travel hockey to start up late August and I can see some of that crew standing at rinks with their ammo and flags, demanding full-contact hockey with fans in the stands.

Just so they're clear: travel hockey isn't happening. Not this season.

Unfortunately, these are the folks who pay for many ice rinks to even think about opening. If they can't rein in their crazy and convince The Powers That Be that they can dial it back, not push for multi-state tournaments every weekend -- or games at all -- rinks may stay shuttered and cut their losses in trying to police them, making sure they are following rules and Team A isn't bringing in players from Red Zones B, C, D, and E into a Green Zone and shutting down entire teams and rinks.

Again, my hope for the Regular Joes -- anyone not NHL or an Olympic hopeful (the real kind, not the Basic Skills kid from Bergen County in the $700 costume) -- is just to skate. Maybe skate and push a puck around on the ice. I'd love that right now. If rinks can put as many people as is safe to on every session round the clock, not have to spend man hours on cleaning lockerrooms and picking up snotty tissues, only running the Zam as needed, turning off the heat and dimming the lights, maybe that's a slim possibility?

Would the majority of skaters who keep rinks open be happy just to skate, even if no competitions in the foreseeable future?
 

missing

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The NFL was scheduled to play one game in Mexico City and four games in London in 2020.

All five games have been cancelled.

The NFL is a financial and sports/entertainment giant. If it can't make the logistics of international sports work, I can't see how the ISU possibly could.
 

mjb52

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The NFL involves hugely close contact though. Skating doesn't, other than dance and pairs partners, who in order to perform at all will have been training together anyway.
 

missing

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The issue doesn't seem to be the nature of the sport, since as of the moment the NFL hasn't cancelled its regular season. It's just the international games that are no longer on the schedule.
 

Debbie S

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These games were likely early fall? Given the logistics that go into them, the NFL likely had to make the decision now. Aside from packing stadiums with a lot more people than would ever fit in a skating arena, you also have lots of U.S. fans traveling to watch. When the Ravens played in London a few years ago, they had a traveling pep rally of sorts through central London the day before the game, plus other promotions. The NFL is doing this to promote itself and the game to a wide audience and with things as they are now, there's no way they could bring thousands of people from different countries together.

It wouldn't surprise me if the NFL season was delayed. Training camp doesn't start until July, but right now there are usually spring camps going on, for rookies and sometimes others. Obviously, nothing is happening.

I don't expect there to be a fall int'l season, but skating comps don't involve quite the same logistics, and not the same amount of lead time.

Given the timeline the ISU posted for decisions on GPs (Aug 1), I wonder if they'll go ahead with GP assignments at the end of June as planned. Or move up their decision-making process.
 

overedge

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The NFL involves hugely close contact though. Skating doesn't, other than dance and pairs partners, who in order to perform at all will have been training together anyway.
Synchro involves close contact too. Although the members of a synchro teams are usually very good friends, I'm not sure they would want to be isolated together for an entire competitive season. Isolation wouldn't even be possible for the synchro skaters who also go to school or have families or have full-time or part-time jobs.
 

Debbie S

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Tom Z has skaters back on the ice at the World Arena in Colorado already.
Did the rink open today? The website still says it's closed, but I know rink websites aren't always updated in a timely manner. The Broadmoor Open is still listed as happening. Even if all rinks in the U.S. opened today, and of course most haven't, that's not a lot of time to prepare for comp, so I'm surprised it hasn't been canceled.

Several synchro programs in my area are holding "virtual" tryouts. Not sure how that's working, but I'm not optimistic about a synchro season this year. I would think rinks and USFS wouldn't want the liability of having so many people in close contact (and that parents and skaters wouldn't want to take the risk). Then again, hard not to allow one discipline of skating if you're allowing others.
 

vesperholly

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Did the rink open today? The website still says it's closed, but I know rink websites aren't always updated in a timely manner. The Broadmoor Open is still listed as happening. Even if all rinks in the U.S. opened today, and of course most haven't, that's not a lot of time to prepare for comp, so I'm surprised it hasn't been canceled.
No idea - it's on his Instagram. Looks like maybe 4-5 kids on the ice, all wearing masks. I guess this will be the new cardio training 😷
 

Zemgirl

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The NFL is a financial and sports/entertainment giant. If it can't make the logistics of international sports work, I can't see how the ISU possibly could.
NASCAR is coming back soon, and some countries are already allowing limited sports training, with an eye towards resuming organized sports as early as June.

A key issue is that some things can more easily adapt to a no audience, broadcast-only model. As others have noted, the logistics of holding NFL games abroad are complicated, and with uncertainty about whether anyone would be able to attend, there's no benefit in scheduling anything outside the US.

The ISU is not counting on paid attendance at Challengers to bring in money, and could easily hold events with just competitors and judging panels. It wouldn't be that different from the typical situation at some competitions :shuffle:
 

Coco

Rotating while Russian!
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I hope there is a committee working on qualification procedures for 2022 should competitions not result until sometime in 2021, with rinks staying closed through early 2021.

The Olympics prides itself on numerous countries participating. Several smaller countries can't afford to 'open up and hope for the best.' So it's quite likely that they either won't open up before a vaccine or will open up only to have to shutter again if the number of cases spikes.
 

insideedgeua

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No idea - it's on his Instagram. Looks like maybe 4-5 kids on the ice, all wearing masks. I guess this will be the new cardio training 😷
10 people per session, including coaches. Locker rooms closed, no hanging around between sessions. Come in, skate your session and leave. No parents inside at all. Payments and bookings all by phone or website. Skaters must be resident skaters, so nobody flying in because they are open.
 

Rock2

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3,666
Tom Z has skaters back on the ice at the World Arena in Colorado already.
We definitely won't see everything come back online at the same time but I do expect we'll see more examples of this in the short term. Depends on how the rink earns its revenue to operate overall, the situation in that region, and the ability of the rink to convince authorities it can manage the exposure.

Seeing this in tennis right now too as some athletes are able to get back on court to train but any resumption is play is a long ways away because you have to wait for virtually everyone being back so you can plan the international calendar.

We're probably still looking at fall for all major rinks to be back online...as long as there's no major relapse. I'm not hopeful for any non-local events this calendar year but I do think there's a legit shot at the season being salvaged under the most slimmed-down conditions.
 
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