Not to beat a dead horse but...
I think the selection for the 2016 Olympics was a lot more clear cut than people made it out to be. They took the top 3 all arounders, who were excellent on vault, beam, and floor. That left them with a clear weakness on bars, however a) they needed a 4th person to go on vault, beam, and floor in qualifications and b) in a 5-4-3 format, they didn't want to take gymnasts who couldn't be used on other events in an emergency.
If you just cared about bars, you would have taken Madison Kocian and Ashton Locklear. Madison was a capable all arounder who finished 8th in the all around and was a reasonable competitor on beam and floor. Her main weakness was on vault, which was a strength for the rest of the team. She was also the reigning bars world champion. Taking her was a bit of a no brainer.
Again, if you need someone to really bring something on bars, your remaining choices were Gabby or Ashton, but Ashton was not usable on any other event. She only competed beam and bars at trials and finished second to last on beam.
This was the first year of 5-4-3, and I'm sure that the US were not willing to risk a one event gymnast in that format, so Ashton is out. Gabby was the only remaining bar worker who was actually better than Simone and Laurie. Additionally, looking at a team of Laurie, Simone, Aly, and Madison, aside from needing a 3rd top bar score, you'd want a 4th good vault score, which is Madison's weakness. Gabby scored over 15 on both of her vaults at trials as well. Honestly, I think she was the only reasonable choice.
MyKayla Skinner, Ragan Smith, and Maggie Nichols could not have improved the U.S.'s biggest weakness, which was bars.
- MyKayla could have improved the U.S. vault score, but the U.S. already won vault by over a point by taking 3 of our top 4 vaulters.
- Ragan and Maggie could have been the 4th gymnast on beam, but they were not scoring much higher than Madison and lower than Lori, Aly, and Simone, so they just didn't add anything. And the U.S. won beam and the teams closest to them weren't even Russia.
- Same thing on floor. Maggie, Ragan, and MyKayla were scoring below Aly, Simone, and Laurie. They were slightly above Madison, but only by about 0.1.
There was definitely no reason to take Ragan or Maggie, because they would not have been used in team finals at all if the rest of the team was Laurie, Madison, Simone, and Aly.
Athlete A presents Maggie as having been robbed, but unfortunately, I don't think there was any real reason to take her or Ragan. Even for alternate status, Ragan and MyKayla beat Maggie in the all around.
Ashton, as I've mentioned, was the only one who could have added on bars, but that is the only event that she would do in quals or finals. I don't think that was a risk the U.S. was willing to take for an increase of about 0.6 over Gabby or even 0.8 over Simone. If you look at how things actually went, Ashton probably had the biggest argument for being included over Gabby, because Gabby did only do bars in finals, but, as we saw in 2008 and 2020, an injury could easily have changed that. That being said, Gabby's Olympic score was 15.766 (qualified 3rd for finals), a massive improvement over her trials score, which would likely have made it so that Ashton actually did not increase the score at all.
The only other person who would have gone in team finals was MyKayla Skinner. MyKayla would have given us 0.3 over Laurie on vault, and could have gone on beam and floor and scored about the same as Gabby in qualifications. However, we would have had to use Laurie on bars in team finals. Based on trials, that would have cost us about 0.3, which would have wiped out the advantage of having MyKayla on vault. Laurie never competed bars at the Olympics, but based on how well Gabby did on bars, the actual cost would have been more like 0.8.
Not only that, but Gabby was a
much more experienced competitor than any of the other 3. If it's a wash between someone who had the poise to become a double Olympic gold medalist last time and had won a world all around silver just the year before and someone who had never faced Olympic pressure before, tie has to go to the person who has shown they can handle it.
Hindsight is 20/20, but Gabby finished 3rd in the AA in qualifications. Having seen the Olympics, it's impossible to argue against choosing her. It was a tighter decision at the time, but honestly, I think not a very difficult decision in the end. And certainly, my guess is that the final discussion was Gabby vs. Ashton (and maybe MyKayla) and that Maggie Nichols and Ragan Smith really weren't in the conversation.