Grand Prix Series of Seasons 2022/23 & 2023/24

maatTheViking

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I think another event in Asia would make sense, and for that Korea seem the obvious choice if interested.

For Europe I'm not sure. Have host spots is an advantage but it would also be good if you can fill them. I assume it's expensive for the host? If not Estonia or Italy, I'm wondering about Finland, Spain or Germany.
 

Karen-W

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19,517
I think another event in Asia would make sense, and for that Korea seem the obvious choice if interested.

For Europe I'm not sure. Have host spots is an advantage but it would also be good if you can fill them. I assume it's expensive for the host? If not Estonia or Italy, I'm wondering about Finland, Spain or Germany.
Eh, maybe? Spain doesn't have any senior women, though Estonia lacks any pairs teams at any level. Hungary, Great Britain, Poland, Switzerland, Netherlands and the Czech Republic are usually able to field at least one entrant in three or four disciplines (and Ukraine, but they're clearly not an option right now).

Australia is hosting 4CCs next year, otherwise they could be an eastern Pacific option as well, or perhaps rotate hosting duties with Korea every other year if it's permanently taken away from China. Taiwan also likes to host 4CCs, so they might have an interest too. And, of course, Kazakhstan did have a Challenger Series event last season. :)

It will be exciting to see who emerges as hosts for both GPs.
 

Vagabond

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Take this list and cross out the Russians and Belarusians.
Cross out the Pairs that have already broken up or announced their retirement.
Then cross out the Pair facing a ban for doping. (You can pencil them in later.)
Cross out the Juniors and any teams lacking the TES minimums.

Then there are the Pairs who will break up or retire.
And Pairs with a Russian who may not have a non-Russian passport in time to compete.

:eek:
 

Taso

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7,324

Take this list and cross out the Russians and Belarusians.
Cross out the Pairs that have already broken up or announced their retirement.
Then cross out the Pair facing a ban for doping. (You can pencil them in later.)
Cross out the Juniors and any teams lacking the TES minimums.

Then there are the Pairs who will break up or retire.
And Pairs with a Russian who may not have a non-Russian passport in time to compete.

:eek:
Makes me wonder if it is time to do 4 events with pairs instead of 6 a la the JGP
 

clairecloutier

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13,606

Take this list and cross out the Russians and Belarusians.
Cross out the Pairs that have already broken up or announced their retirement.

:eek:


I look at this and just find myself hoping that Alisa Efimova can finally be released from Russia soon. With pairs potentially so depleted next season—and based on what we saw from them at German Nationals—Efimova/Blommaert could add some much-needed quality/class to the international pairs scene next year. (They would have been a welcome addition to this year’s Euros/Worlds comps as well.) If they don’t get that release by April, I would definitely bring the case to the int’l governing bodies, if I were them. Efimova last competed internationally for Russia, AFAIK, in November 2019.
 

Karen-W

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19,517
We really don't know which teams will continue on for another season and which ones will retire, apart from a few who have already made announcements (Moore-Towers/Marinaro, Della Monica/Guarise, Ziegler/Kiefer).

There are 8 spots per GP. I think there will be at least 24 pairs teams competing internationally at the senior level next season.

Miura/Kihara
Safina/Berulava
Walsh/Michaud
Kovalev/Kovalev
Danilova/Tsiba
Broda/Betegon Martin
Calalang/Johnson
Chan/Howe
McBeath/Bartholomay
Smirnova/Siianytsia
Stellato-Dudek/Deschamps
Matte/Ferland
McIntosh/Mimar*
Ghilardi/Ambrosini
Conti/Macii
Caldara/Maglio
Hocke/Kunkle
Roscher/Schuster
Crafoord/Crafoord
Holichenko/Darenskiy
Metelkina/Parkman
Zukova/Bidar

That's 22 right there and doesn't include teams that have one skater with a Russian passport -
Golubeva/Giotopoulos-Moore
Chernyshova/Windsor
Vaananen/Akulov
Pavlova/Nagy

And then there are new teams that have formed (or will form) or aren't currently ranked, some of whom could get a host assignment -
Keriven/Bouvart
Piegad/Strekalin
Collier/Mitrofanov
Plazas/Fernandez

And the teams who have not made a decision about competing next season as far as we are aware -
Knierim/Frazier
James/Radford
Hase/Seegert
Cain-Gribble/LeDuc
Liu/O'Shea

*Jr world medalists without the senior TES mins can be assigned to the senior GPs - if McIntosh/Mimar don't medal then they'll drop down to the host eligible group and surely be assigned to Skate Canada.
 
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Karen-W

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I look at this and just find myself hoping that Alisa Efimova can finally be released from Russia soon. With pairs potentially so depleted next season—and based on what we saw from them at German Nationals—Efimova/Blommaert could add some much-needed quality/class to the international pairs scene next year. (They would have been a welcome addition to this year’s Euros/Worlds comps as well.) If they don’t get that release by April, I would definitely bring the case to the int’l governing bodies, if I were them. Efimova last competed internationally for Russia, AFAIK, in November 2019.
Teams who don't have the TES mins, aren't on the SB 75 or don't meet the total score min (3/5 of the World Champion's score - 132.5-ish) aren't eligible except as host picks, which is why I left a few teams, like Osipova/Epstein, Efimova/Blommaert, Vaipan-Law/Digby, and the Polish team off my list. Regardless, I think there will be full fields at each GP, or close to it, though there are going to be a lot of teams that would never have gotten one GP in years past who suddenly get 2, lol.
 

AxelAnnie

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Karen-W

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Cross-posting from the Pairs 2021-22 thread in the Trash Can, now that Jr Worlds is over:
Looking ahead to next season (but not starting a new thread because we still have Jr Worlds), here are the seeded teams for the GP next season:

Assuming the same criteria for GP seeding is applied to next season... This is going to be REALLY interesting:

Seeded 1-6 (guaranteed 2) if any of these teams retire then the teams in the Seeded 7-10 group move up in order to Seeded 1-6 status
1 - Knierim/Frazier USA
2 - Miura/Kihara JPN
3 - James/Radford CAN
4 - Safina/Berulava GEO
5 - Hase/Seegert GER
6 - Walsh/Michaud CAN

Seeded 7-10 (guaranteed 2) - if any of these teams retire then the teams ranked 11 & lower move up in order to Seeded 7-10 status
7 - Ziegler/Kiefer* AUT
7 - Kovalev/Kovalev FRA
8 - Danilova/Tsiba NED
10 - Jones/Boyadji* GBR
11 - Broda/Betegon Martin ESP
12 - Kops/Krasnopolski* ISR

Teams crossed out have announced their retirements

World Standings and Season's Best were updated after the Jr Worlds FS.

WS Top 24 (guaranteed 1 GP assignment) - I've extended the list since it seems pretty certain the 6 Russian teams in the top 24 won't be on the GP next season (and there's a 7th team that is ranked 29th), and crossed out the teams who have already split or announced their retirement.

* = 2 assignments guaranteed based on Worlds placement

1 Mishina/Galliamov RUS
2 Tarasova/Morozov RUS

3 Sui/Han CHN
4 Boikova/Kozlovskii RUS
5 Cain-Gribble/LeDuc USA
6 Knierim/Frazier USA*
7 Peng/Jin CHN
8 Miura/Kihara JPN*
9 Hase/Seegert GER*
10 Moore-Towers/Marinaro CAN
11 Ghilardi/Ambrosini ITA
12 Lu/Mitrofanov USA
13 Della Monica/Guarise ITA

14 James/Radford CAN*
15 Ziegler/Kiefer AUT
16 Walsh/Michaud CAN*
17 Pavliuchenko/Khodykin RUS
18 Calalang/Johnson USA

19 Chtchetinina/Magyar HUN
20 Artemeva/Nazarychev RUS
21 Safina/Berulava GEO*
22 Pepleva/Pleshkov RUS
23 Hocke/Kunkel GER
24 Jones/Boyadji GBR
25 Conti/Macii ITA
26 Chan/Howe USA
27 Smirnova/Siianytsia USA
28 Barquero/Zandron ESP - status unknown due to her drug suspension
29 Akhanteva/Kolesov RUS
30 Danilova/Tsiba NED*
31 Stellato-Dudek/Deschamps CAN

The following teams are on the SB Top 75 and had a total score of 132.65+ (60% of Knierim/Frazier's World Championship-winning total score), so they are eligible for GP assignments:

** = likely staying junior

19 Metelkina/Parkman GEO
29 Liu/O'Shea USA
32 Golubeva/Giotopoulos Moore AUS
34 Matte/Ferland CAN
35 McBeath/Bartholomay USA
38 Kops/Krasnopolski ISR
40 Petranovic/Souza Kordeiru CRO

41 Wang/Huang CHN
44 Pavlova/Nagy HUN
46 Zukova/Bidar CZE
47 McIntosh/Mimar CAN
48 Kovalev/Kovalev FRA*
51 Roscher/Schuster GER
52 Sierova/Khobta UKR**
53 Keriven/Pierre FRA
55 Holichenko/Darenskyi UKR
56 Caldara/Maglio ITA
57 Pfund/Santillan SUI
59 Martins/Bedard USA

60 Chernyshova/Windsor AUS
61 Vaananen/Akulov FIN
62 Broda/Betegon/Martin ESP*

63 Crafoord/Crafoord SWE

Hosts aren't bound by the total score minimum, so I fully expect that France will assign Keriven/Bouvart and Piegad/Strekalin to IdF, and I won't be surprised if both the USA and CAN keep at least 1 if not 2 host spots open for newly formed or unranked teams (Plazas/Fernandez, Collier/Mitrofanov, Proft/Nadeau, etc).

So, all told, right now, there are 30 eligible teams from 14 countries for the 48 GP spots in pairs (really, probably closer to 42-44 since some of those host spots are going to be held back). It's going to be an interesting season, for sure.
ETA - I forgot that 2021-22 Season's Best Top 24 are also guaranteed 1 GP assignment, so Metelkina/Parkman GEO will get one (assuming they're still together).
 
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Karen-W

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19,517
Seeded 1-6 (guaranteed 2) if any of these skaters retire then the teams in the Seeded 7-12 group move up in order to Seeded 1-6 status
1 - Uno JPN
2 - Kagiyama JPN
3 - Zhou USA
4 - Kvitelashvili GEO
5 - Pulkinen USA
6 - Tomono JPN

Seeded 7-12 (guaranteed 2) - if any of these skaters retire then the skaters ranked 13 & lower move up in order to Seeded 7-12 status
6 - Grassl ITA
7 - Siao Him Fa FRA
9 - Malinin USA
10 - Rizzo ITA
11 - Aymoz FRA
12 - Sadovsky CAN

World Standings Top 24 (updated 4/16) (guaranteed 1 GP assignment) - I've extended the list since it seems pretty certain the 6 Russian men in the top 24 won't be on the GP next season (and there's a 7th that is ranked 26th), and crossed out the skaters who have already announced their retirement.

* = 2 assignments guaranteed based on Worlds placement
1 - Chen USA not competing next fall
2 - Kagiyama JPN*
3 - Uno JPN*
4 - Kvitelashvili GEO*
5 - Grassl ITA*
6 - Brown USA
7 - Hanyu JPN
8 - Messing CAN
9 - Rizzo ITA*
10 - Vasiljevs LAT
11 - Zhou USA*
12 - J. Cha KOR
13 - Tomono JPN*
14 - Aliev RUS
15 - Mozalev RUS

16 - Jin CHN
17 - Semenenko RUS
18 - Aymoz FRA*
19 - Siao Him Fa FRA*
20 - Pulkinen USA*
21 - Kondratiuk RUS
22 - Samarin RUS

23 - Malinin USA*
24 - Kolyada RUS
25 - Sato JPN
26 - Gumennik RUS
27 - M. Selevko EST
28 - Kerry AUS
29 - Yamamoto JPN
30 - A. Selevko EST
31 - Litvintsev AZE

ETA - 2021-22 Season's Best Top 24 are guaranteed 1 GP assignment
21 - Sato JPN (if the Russians aren't removed from the WS Top 24 list he gets one this way)
23 - Ignatov RUS

The following skaters are on the Season's Best Top 75 (updated 4/16), so they are eligible for GP assignments:

** = likely staying junior

29 - Miura JPN
30 - Ma USA
34 - Miyake JPN
35 - Frangipani ITA
37 - Brezina CZE
39 - Shaidorov KAZ (also eligible for consideration due to his Jr Worlds silver)
40 - Tsuboi JPN (also eligible for consideration due to his Jr Worlds bronze)
41 - Chiu CAN
42 - Yablokov RUS
43 - Lutfullin RUS

44 - Tanaka JPN

45 - S. Lee KOR
46 - Shimada JPN
47 - Zandron AUT
48 - Egadze GEO
49 - Honda JPN
50 - Gogolev CAN
51 - Reshtenko CZE
52 - Bychenko ISR
53 - Rukhin RUS

54 - Orzel CAN
55 - Levandi EST **
56 - Hiwatashi USA
57 - Milyukov BLR
58 - Kovalev RUS

59 - Danielian RUS
60 - Phan CAN
61 - Majorov SWE
62 - Nguyen CAN
63 - Britschgi SUI
64 - Carrillo MEX
65 - Sarnovskiy RUS
66 - Shmuratko UKR
67 - Starostin GER
68 - Circelli CAN
69 - Memola ITA
70 - Sjoberg USA
71 - Erokhov RUS
72 - Ponsart FRA

73 - Kapeikis USA
74 - Newberry GBR
75 - Guarino Sabate ESP
 
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miffy

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10,980
Teams who don't have the TES mins, aren't on the SB 75 or don't meet the total score min (3/5 of the World Champion's score - 132.5-ish) aren't eligible except as host picks, which is why I left a few teams, like Osipova/Epstein, Efimova/Blommaert, Vaipan-Law/Digby, and the Polish team off my list. Regardless, I think there will be full fields at each GP, or close to it, though there are going to be a lot of teams that would never have gotten one GP in years past who suddenly get 2, lol.
This makes me even more cross that the British fed robbed their national champions and this season’s highest international scorers Vaipan-Law and Digby of going to Worlds with ridiculous criteria relating to a season they weren’t even competing. It’s just embarrassing when it messes up their chances like this :(

I adored Efimova with her old partner (a rare occasion I liked both skaters equally) so I would love to see her again. I hope they do secure the release. Did Korovin get a release to skate for the Philippines or is he waiting too?
 

Karen-W

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19,517
This makes me even more cross that the British fed robbed their national champions and this season’s highest international scorers Vaipan-Law and Digby of going to Worlds with ridiculous criteria relating to a season they weren’t even competing. It’s just embarrassing when it messes up their chances like this :(

I adored Efimova with her old partner (a rare occasion I liked both skaters equally) so I would love to see her again. I hope they do secure the release. Did Korovin get a release to skate for the Philippines or is he waiting too?
Agreed about Vaipan-Law/Digby. It's a real shame since their SB from all the way back at Finlandia is just .21 short of the total score minimum needed to be on the SB Top 75 list. I guess the other thing that irks me is that Jones/Boyadji knew this was their final season and they could have bowed out graciously to give Vaipan-Law/Digby a better shot at improving their SB and potentially receiving a GP assignment.

The Philippines Skating Fed announced them as a new team, ready to compete next season, so I presume that Korovin has his release. He and Isabella have been in the Philippines for a couple weeks now - they did a skating class in Manila and are now enjoying a vacation on the coast - they've both been posting pics on their IGs. I expect we will see them at the Challenger events next season and, hopefully, 4CCs/Worlds.
 

RoseRed

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2,060
Seeded 1-6 (guaranteed 2) if any of these skaters retire then the teams in the Seeded 7-12 group move up in order to Seeded 1-6 status
1 - Uno JPN
2 - Kagiyama JPN
3 - Zhou USA
4 - Kvitelashvili GEO retirement announced
4 - Pulkinen USA
5 - Tomono JPN
6 - Grassl ITA
What's the source for Moris retiring? I haven't seen that anywhere else, but I might have missed it.
 

Karen-W

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19,517
What's the source for Moris retiring? I haven't seen that anywhere else, but I might have missed it.
I don't have a source, but there were several people saying that he'd said this was his last season in the Worlds pbp threads. He is, also, they pointed out, 27, so I took those folks' word for it.
 

airgelaal

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I don't have a source, but there were several people saying that he'd said this was his last season in the Worlds pbp threads. He is, also, they pointed out, 27, so I took those folks' word for it.
Yes, he said this. But after the WC, he changed his mind and said that he had not decided. yet. I think his decision will depend on the situation with Russian skaters.
 

Karen-W

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19,517
Yes, he said this. But after the WC, he said that he had not decided yet. I think his decision will depend on the situation with Russian skaters.
Makes sense! I'll edit my original post then to show he hasn't officially retired then!
 

kwanfan1818

RIP D-10
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35,539
Hopefully, the teams left off the !ist will be able to get the GP minimums at an early enough Challenger Series event and be eligible to be added in time, especially since there seems to be nominal interest in actually following the alternates list, even in the time periods where it's supposed to be. And all the Feds have to do is wait until they have total discretion anyway.
 

Karen-W

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Okay, I think I have this right, based on the updated World Standings & Season's Best for the Women.

Seeded 1-6 (guaranteed 2) if any of these skaters retire then the teams in the Seeded 7-12 group move up in order to Seeded 1-6 status
1 - Sakamoto JPN
2 - Hendrickx BEL
3 - Liu USA
3 - Bell USA
4 - You KOR
5 - Gubanova GEO
6 - Lee KOR

Seeded 7-12 (guaranteed 2) - if any of these skaters retire then the skaters ranked 13 & lower move up in order to Seeded 7-12 status
7 - Chen USA
8 - Ryabova AZE
9 - Schott GER
10 - Higuchi JPN
11 - Schizas CAN
12 - Kurakova POL

World Standings Top 24 (updated 4/17) (guaranteed 1 GP assignment) - I've extended the list since it seems pretty certain the 6 Russian & 1 Belarusian women in the top 24 won't be on the GP next season, and crossed out the skaters who have already announced their retirement.

* = 2 assignments guaranteed based on Worlds placement
1 - Shcherbakova RUS
2 - Trusova RUS

3 - Sakamoto JPN*
4 - You KOR*
5 - Tuktamysheva RUS
6 - Liu USA
7 - Valieva RUS

8 - Hendrickx BEL*
9 - Kostornaia RUS
10 - Chen USA*
11 - Higuchi JPN*
12 - Kihira JPN
13 - Bell USA*
14 - Ryabova AZE*
15 - Y. Kim KOR
16 - H. Lee KOR*
17 - Kurakova POL*
18 - Tennell USA
19 - Schott GER*
20 - Khromykh RUS
21 - Mihara JPN
22 - Safonova BLR
23 - Andrews USA
24 - Miyahara JPN
25 - Paganini SUI
26 - Glenn USA
27 - Schizas CAN*
28 - E. Lim KOR
29 - Petrokina EST
30 - Matsuike JPN
31 - Thorngren USA

2021-22 Season's Best Top 24 are guaranteed 1 GP assignment
6 - Akateva RUS
12 - Usacheva RUS
14 - Zhilina RUS
17 - Muravieva RUS
18 - Petrosian RUS

22 - Levito USA
23 - Zinina RUS
24 - J. Shin KOR - age-ineligible
25 - Sinitsyna RUS
26 - Samodelkina RUS

27 - Kawabe JPN
30 - A. Shin USA
33 - Kiibus EST
The following skaters are on the Season's Best Top 75 (updated 4/16), so they are eligible for GP assignments:

** = likely staying junior

36 - Kulikova RUS
38 - Berestovskaia RUS

39 - Yun KOR
40 - M. Kim KOR
42 - C. Kim KOR
43 - Zakharova RUS
47 - Wi KOR
49 - Park KOR
50 - Pinzarrone BEL **
51 - Yokoi JPN
52 - Mikutina AUT
53 - Seo USA **
54 - Kitromilis CYP
55 - Samodurova RUS
57 - Izzo USA
58 - Ruiter CAN
59 - Shabotova UKR
61 - Repond SUI **
62 - Daleman CAN
63 - Ziegler USA **
64 - Kisel BLR
65 - van Zundert NED
66 - Brezinova CZE
67 - Sumiyoshi JPN
68 - Ji KOR
69 - Zhu CHN
70 - Serna FRA
71 - Wang USA
72 - Sauter ROU
73 - Peltonen FIN
74 - Saarinen FIN
75 - Schumacher CAN (feel free to refresh my memory if she hasn't retired - I might be confusing her with Bausback)
 

Karen-W

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And now, Dance, based on the updated World Standings & Season's Best updated this afternoon.

Seeded 1-6 (guaranteed 2) if any of these teams retire then the teams in the Seeded 7-10 group move up in order to Seeded 1-6 status
1 - Papadakis/Cizeron FRA
2 - Hubbell/Donohue USA
2 - Chock/Bates USA
3 - Guignard/Fabbri ITA
4 - Gilles/Poirier CAN
4 - Fear/Gibson GBR
5 - Smart/Diaz ESP
6 - Hawayek/Baker USA

Seeded 7-10 (guaranteed 2) - if any of these teams retire then the teamss ranked 13 & lower move up in order to Seeded 7-12 status
7 - Fournier Beaudry/Sorensen CAN
8 - Reed/Ambrulevicius LTU
9 - Lajoie/Lagha CAN
10 - Turkkila/Versluis FIN

World Standings Top 24 (updated 4/17) (guaranteed 1 GP assignment) - I've extended the list since it seems pretty certain the 3 Russian teams in the top 24 won't be on the GP next season, and crossed out the teams who have already announced their retirement.

* = 2 assignments guaranteed based on Worlds placement
1 - Chock/Bates USA*
2 - Hubbell/Donohue USA
3 - Sinitsina/Katsalapov RUS

4 - Guignard/Fabbri ITA*
5 - Gilles/Poirier CAN
6 - Papadakis/Cizeron FRA*
7 - Fear/Gibson GBR*
8 - Fournier Beaudry/Sorensen CAN*
9 - Stepanova/Bukin RUS
10 - Smart/Diaz ESP*
11 - Hurtado/Khaliavin ESP
12 - Green/Parsons USA
13 - Hawayek/Baker USA*
14 - Soucisse/Firus CAN
15 - Reed/Ambrulevicius LTU*
16 - Carreira/Ponomarenko USA
17 - Lajoie/Lagha CAN*
18 - Wang/Liu CHN
19 - Kazakova/Reviya GEO
20 - Davis/Smolkin RUS
21 - Lopareva/Brissaud FRA
22 - Nazarova/Nikitin UKR
23 - Kaliszek/Spodyriev POL
24 - Mueller/Dieck GER
25 - Brown/Brown USA
26 - Turkkila/Versluis FIN*
27 - D'Alessandro/Waddell CAN

2021-22 Season's Best Top 24 are guaranteed 1 GP assignment
12 - Skoptcova/Aleshin RUS
16 - Muramoto/Takahashi JPN
19 - Khudaiberdieva/Bazin RUS
22 - Shanaeva/Naryzhnyy RUS

26 - Orihara/Pirinen FIN
27 - Taschlerova/Taschler CZE
28 - Morozov/Bagin RUS
29 - Garabedian/Proulx Senecal ARM

The following skaters are on the Season's Best Top 75 (updated 4/16), so they are eligible for GP assignments:

** = likely staying junior

33 - Bratti/Somerville USA
34 - Komatsubara/Koleto JPN
35 - Fabbri/Ayer CAN
36 - Pate/Bye USA
38 - Lanaghan/Razgulajevs CAN
39 - Khavronina/Cirisano RUS
40 - Holubtsova/Bielobrov UKR
41 - Janse van Rensburg/Steffan GER
43 - Kaganovskaya/Angelopol RUS
44 - Lauriault/LeGac CAN
45 - Cesanek/Yehorov USA
46 - Leonteva/Gorelkin RUS
47 - Wolfkostin/Chen USA
48 - Harris/Chan AUS
49 - Fear/Waddell GBR
51 - Demougeot/Le Mercier FRA
52 - Tyutyunina/Shustitskiy RUS
53 - Lagouge/Caffa FRA
54 - Sales/Wamsteeker CAN
55 - Yanovskaya/Lukacs HUN
56 - Ling/Wein USA
57 - Shevchenko/Eremenko RUS
58 - Nosovitskaya/Nosovitskiy ISR
59 - McNamara/Spiridonov USA
60 - Min/Eaton KOR
61 - Chen/Sun CHN
62 - Portesi Peroni/Chrastecky ITA
63 - Bashynska/Beaumont (also eligible for consideration due to their Jr Worlds bronze)
64 - Semenjuk/Yukhimuk BLR
65 - Mamchenkova/Volkov RUS

66 - Polibina/Golovishnikov POL
67 - Tessari/Walker SUI
68 - Ichilov/Abecassis ISR
69 - Grimm/Savitskiy GER **
70 - Kerry/Dodds AUS
71 - Lim/Quan KOR **
72 - Flores/Tsarevski USA
73 - Kudryavtseva/Karankevich CYP **
74 - Rybakova/Makhnonosov RUS
75 - Ignateva/Szemko HUN
 

Sylvia

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Thanks for compiling these preliminary lists/projections, @Karen-W!

Just a note that the ISU usually updates their World Standings rankings before the start of the new season - if done like before, all the WS points from the 2019/2020 season will be removed and the 2020/2021 points will be reduced to 70%.
 

Karen-W

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19,517
Thanks for compiling these preliminary lists/projections, @Karen-W!

Just a note that the ISU usually updates their World Standings rankings before the start of the new season - if done like before, all the WS points from the 2019/2020 season will be removed and the 2020/2021 points will be reduced to 70%
I was wondering if we knew how they were going to treat the mostly non-existent 2020/2021 season's points. It seems kind of crazy to carry over the 2019/2020 points at 70% since that's three seasons ago, but there was only one event in 2020/2021 that counted toward World Standings.
 

kwanfan1818

RIP D-10
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35,539
If they go back to standard way of ranking, using 70% of 2020-21, then the skaters/teams who would get a spot they wouldn't from Worlds or Top 24 SB, with caveats* are:

1. Dance: Carriero/Ponomarkenko, Soucisse/Firus, Mueller/Dieck, and the Browns, if they choose to go senior.
2. Pairs: Ghilardi/Ambrossini, Chtchetinina/Magyar, Stellato-Dukek/Deschamps, and Conti/Macii
3. Women: Thorngren, Petrokina, Matsuike, and Kurakova
4. Men: Levandi, Ma, Chiu, and M. Selevko

*Caveats: that my math/sorting, I never track all of splits and retirements, and I have no idea who among juniors are planning to skate seniors next year.

I'm also distinguishing between the juniors who are guaranteed a GP spot, if they go senior, and those Jr. Worlds medal winners who are given consideration, blah, blah, but not guaranteed anything more.

If the Federations ask that skaters who've retired or split be removed from the WS list, then, theoretically, the WS lists would be updated before the GP selections are made, and there would be some extra spots. For example, if USFS were to request that Liu be removed due to her announced retirement, then Audrey Shin would be next in line for a guaranteed GP spot as #24 on the WS list. I don't expect Feds to do anything where the skaters haven't officially retired and are leaving their options open, whether for after GP season or after this season.

I don't see anyone on the Men's side in the recalculated Top 30 WS who are retiring officially. Brezina and Bychenko, for example, are too low for it to matter for guaranteed spots.

On the Pairs side, just in the Top 24, Barton confirmed that Ziegler/Kiefer are retiring, I believe Della Monica Guarise announced retirement, and Lu/Mitrofanov have split. 25, 26, and 27 will be the Kovalevs (8th at Worlds), Golobeva/Giotopoulus -- not sure if they're planning to skate seniors -- and Kadyrova/Balchenko from RUS. I don't expect the ISU to remove Russian skaters from the lists: they earned those scores when they were allowed to skate, but I also don't expect them to expand the Top SB and Top WS guaranteeing a spot, because skaters got more points by moving up the standings at Worlds/Jr. Worlds this year.

In Dance, Hubbell/Donohue and Smart/Diaz have announced retirement, with Hubbell and Diaz announcing plans for their skating school. 25 and 26 should be Wang/Liu, who are SB 21, and D'Alessandro/Waddell (consideration from Jr. Worlds podium), who may or may not skate at least some seniors.

Of course, any of this would be moot if the ISU decides to continue to count 2019-20 seasons points in some way, either the full 70% or a lower factor.
 

Karen-W

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If they go back to standard way of ranking, using 70% of 2020-21, then the skaters/teams who would get a spot they wouldn't from Worlds or Top 24 SB, with caveats* are:

1. Dance: Carriero/Ponomarkenko, Soucisse/Firus, Mueller/Dieck, and the Browns, if they choose to go senior.
2. Pairs: Ghilardi/Ambrossini, Chtchetinina/Magyar, Stellato-Dukek/Deschamps, and Conti/Macii
3. Women: Thorngren, Petrokina, Matsuike, and Kurakova
4. Men: Levandi, Ma, Chiu, and M. Selevko

*Caveats: that my math/sorting, I never track all of splits and retirements, and I have no idea who among juniors are planning to skate seniors next year.

I'm also distinguishing between the juniors who are guaranteed a GP spot, if they go senior, and those Jr. Worlds medal winners who are given consideration, blah, blah, but not guaranteed anything more.

If the Federations ask that skaters who've retired or split be removed from the WS list, then, theoretically, the WS lists would be updated before the GP selections are made, and there would be some extra spots. For example, if USFS were to request that Liu be removed due to her announced retirement, then Audrey Shin would be next in line for a guaranteed GP spot as #24 on the WS list. I don't expect Feds to do anything where the skaters haven't officially retired and are leaving their options open, whether for after GP season or after this season.

I don't see anyone on the Men's side in the recalculated Top 30 WS who are retiring officially. Brezina and Bychenko, for example, are too low for it to matter for guaranteed spots.

On the Pairs side, just in the Top 24, Barton confirmed that Ziegler/Kiefer are retiring, I believe Della Monica Guarise announced retirement, and Lu/Mitrofanov have split. 25, 26, and 27 will be the Kovalevs (8th at Worlds), Golobeva/Giotopoulus -- not sure if they're planning to skate seniors -- and Kadyrova/Balchenko from RUS.
Chtchetinina/Magyar have split - she announced it on her IG. Golubeva/Giotopoulos Moore I think were quoted after the FS on Friday saying they planned on skating both junior & senior next season. My guess is that if they're offered GP spots, they'll move up to senior for the fall and possibly plan on competing at Jr Worlds next year. I believe Moore-Towers/Marinaro have said they will not be competing next season (not sure if it's an official retirement). Barquero/Zandron are a question mark due to her pending WADA violation.
I don't expect the ISU to remove Russian skaters from the lists: they earned those scores when they were allowed to skate, but I also don't expect them to expand the Top SB and Top WS guaranteeing a spot, because skaters got more points by moving up the standings at Worlds/Jr. Worlds this year.
You could be correct. There will be enough skaters in all of the disciplines to more than fill the GP spots, even dropping down into the SB Top 75 for initial selections (which always happens anyway), plus we know the GP federations like to maximize assignments for their own skaters, so the smaller the Top 24 SB and Top 24 WS pools are, the easier it is to get more of their own skaters into unguaranteed open spots.
In Dance, Hubbell/Donohue and Smart/Diaz have announced retirement, with Hubbell and Diaz announcing plans for their skating school. 25 and 26 should be Wang/Liu, who are SB 21, and D'Alessandro/Waddell (consideration from Jr. Worlds podium), who may or may not skate at least some seniors.
Do you have a source for Smart/Diaz? The last information in The Dance Hall thread was that they were going to discuss after the season was over. Gilles/Poirier are taking next season off.
Of course, any of this would be moot if the ISU decides to continue to count 2019-20 seasons points in some way, either the full 70% or a lower factor.
No kidding. I suppose the possibility exists that they'll take the 2020-21 points and reduce to 70% while keeping the 2019-20 season points at 70% which would give them, essentially, two full seasons since Worlds 2020 was the only cancelled event in 2019-20 and it was the only 2020-21 event that counted toward WS points.
 

kwanfan1818

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Do you have a source for Smart/Diaz? The last information in The Dance Hall thread was that they were going to discuss after the season was over.
I can't remember in which thread but I remember reading that Hubbell and Diaz were planning to stop together and had plans to start their school. Maybe that was an assumption, or maybe Smart/Diaz have reconsidered.

ETA: If the ISU gets rid of the prescribed pattern, and even if they require a pattern and juniors can choose from the senior list, it would be an opportunity for dance couples to rack up some points in two JGPJGPF events and then skate seniors in CS events, skipping senior GP, especially if they only get one GP. The JGP season ends early enough, and it's unlikely for them to pick up many WS points. For Pairs and singles, they can mostly adapt their programs.
 
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Karen-W

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I can't remember in which thread but I remember reading that Hubbell and Diaz were planning to stop together and had plans to start their school. Maybe that was an assumption, or maybe Smart/Diaz have reconsidered.
I think the last official information we had from either was Olivia's post-Olympics TSL interview where she said they hadn't made a firm decision, only to discuss after the season was over.

Madison & Adrian's wedding is, per Madi in one of the On Edge episodes, set for summer 2023, so it is possible that Smart/Diaz could decide to go one more season. Or not.

I feel like we won't get any firm idea about official retirements or next season plans from many skaters until everyone has a clear idea of what the ISU plans to do with the GP and Russian/Belarusian skaters next season.
 

kwanfan1818

RIP D-10
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35,539
we also need to remember about the limit of skaters from one country
It looked like in one or two seasons, it was possible for RUS Women and maybe Pairs for there to be fewer than the number of guaranteed spots, for Pairs because there are only 48 spots. For next season, no country that I see will come close to maxxing them out with guaranteed spots.

Looking at US Ice Dance, for example, where there is the most dominance without RUS Women and Pairs, there are 15 spots not including three at Skate America. (USFS could give those three spots to teams that wouldn't get another spot, although they won't.) US teams could get six guaranteed spots through 2022 Worlds, lets say if Hubbell/Donohue reconsidered retirement. Add in one guaranteed spot for Green/Parsons (SB 8) and one each for Carreira/Ponomorenko and the Browns -- both will be Top 24 WS -- if the Browns decide to skate senior. Even if Davis/White and the Shibs decided to come back as returning couples based on their results in the last decade and got two apiece -- although one is supposed to be a host spot, but let's say they get two non-SA spots -- we're still only at 13 of 15 non-SA spots. Split couples placing 1-6 with their previous partners within some number of seasons aren't guaranteed two -- in fact, there isn't even a paragraph for them in the GP Announcement -- so if Hubbell/Donahue, Chock/Bates, and Hawayek/Baker all split and got new partners, it would be six spots from Worlds back in the pot and one each for the new couples, and anything above that would be gravy.

Looking at the spots across all events, there are 60 Ice Dance spots:
  • 3 host spots
  • 20 for Top 10 at Worlds, or Top 10 after retirements/skipping GP, but lets say P/C and H/D and G/P stay in for GP
  • 9 spots for Top 24 SB, not Top 10 at Worlds
  • 4 spots for Top 24 WS, but not Top 24 SB or Top 10 at Worlds
A max of 36 guaranteed spots out of 60 available. Plus a few extra for returning and split couples.


I think the last official information we had from either was Olivia's post-Olympics TSL interview where she said they hadn't made a firm decision, only to discuss after the season was over.
Which was certainly later than talk about the Hubbell/Diaz post-wedding school.
 

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