It took Hawayek/Baker an entire quad of hanging around to get to senior Worlds after winning juniors, and they finally started to break through a little bit, but their results are sliding this season. Carreira/Ponomarenko seemed ready for seniors, but after being successful juniors, were immediately slotted behind H&B and now it looks like they won't get to Worlds for a while either. Then there are McNamara/Carpenter, Parsons, etc.
McNamara & Carpenter, Michael Parsons, and Carreira & Ponomarenko have been fighting it out within international proximity of each other for three years. Hawayek & Baker, McNamara & Carpenter, and Michael Parsons were fighting it out two years before that. I think it's terrific! They are learning to be strong competitors and they should all know that the results can be different depending on the quality of their programs, how they skate, and the need to keep striving & improving. If they do--if they stick it out and continue improving--it is highly likely that they will all go through wins & losses, rough seasons & great ones.
Evan Bates, Madison Hubbell, the Shibs, Madison Chock, Piper Gilles, & Zach Donohue have been fighting it out for a decade. It has made for very competitive athletes. The next generation has to deal with the fact that some of those athletes are still at the top.
But they also have terrific role models. How many times were each of those athletes counted out or told they would be
stuck behind someone else? Hubbell & Donohue went to Worlds their first season together, finished 10th, and didn't get back there for three years, when they again finished 10th. They had a lot of learning to do. They are still learning. And they are competing four years longer than a lot of people anticipated; but this is the beautiful thing about ice dance. You can keep improving & keep competing & keep contending.
Sinitsina & Katsalapov missed the World team 3 out of their first 4 years as a team. Then won a World silver medal.
The young American and young Russian teams and/or athletes with high-quality basics can succeed. They need support, a partner with the same goals, quality coaches who believe in them, funding, fair judging, grit for dealing with the injuries, political setbacks, disappointments, and learning challenges along the way. And time.
Chock & Bates, Hubbell & Donohue, Sinitsina & Katsalapov, and Stepanova & Bukin are not going to go on forever. (I could maybe imagine S&B doing 4 more years after China but I'd be really surprised if any of the others do). So--right now--the young teams fight for the third spot, which is not easy but is also far from sewn up in both countries and the teams learn & improve so that they're ready for opportunities that lie ahead.
(Shoot, we don't even know if S&K and S&B will be allowed to compete at the Olympics. It's also plausible and, despite the press, has always has been plausible that Carreira won't get citizenship until after 2022. Plus we all hope everyone stays healthy, as just in the last two years we've had injuries for various teams in the mix. These are all realities, challenges, and part of the journey).