U.S. Women [#6]: The More the Merrier!

[jlai]

The only problem with your "if" scenario is that we have some pretty solid evidence of how well Sarah, Elyce, Alysa will score when they DO stay upright through their FS at a GP. Alysa didn't pop any of her jumps at SCI - we know what the tech panel did to her TES. Same with Elyce at SCI - we know what the tech panel did.

I know a lot of us have our personal opinions on where Sarah's PCS should be but it seems pretty clear, through 3 different Challengers and GPs that international panels do NOT agree with your assessments. Could a different panel see things differently and suddenly drop her PCS to the level you think she should be at? Sure. Is that likely? Not as long as she stays upright, IMO.

Her scores are CRAZY consistent - and it's not as if she's had a home field advantage at any of these events except Cranberry. She has no built-in advantage of competing at a home GP (Isabeau, Bradie, Elyce), she has no advantage of being a World Medalist (Isabeau, Alysa), she has no advantage of being a former US champ (Amber, Isabeau, Bradie, Alysa). And yet, her we are, halfway through the GP, with Sarah having the 2nd highest score of all the US women (with Lindsay still to debut). We'll see where things stand in another three weeks, but if things remain the same, then I'm betting that if she's in the Top 3 at Nats, she's getting named to the Worlds team whether any of you like it or her lack of personality on the ice or not.

I do like how she can overcome warmup issues. I am not a fan of the skating but man, we need skaters like her

 

[Karen-W]

Okay, per notes from @ice coverage in the US Ice Dance thread, I've updated the tables for both jr & sr.

Senior -

Skater

Level

Age Eligible

ISU Min Score

2024 U.S. Nats

GPF

GP/ JGP 1

GP/ JGP 2

GP/ JPG Highest

GP/ JGP Avg

CS/ Sr B/ Jr Int 1

CS/ Sr B/ Jr Int 2

CS/ Sr B/ Jr Int Highest

CS/ Sr B/ Jr Int Avg

Sect Final (Top 2 in each Section JR/SR)

NQS Score (Top 2 in each Section JR/SR)

Non-USFS Funded Event

Prev Yr Final Number

Total

Andrews, Starr

S

Y

Y

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

164.89​

151.65​

164.89​

158.27​

196.77​

0.00​

0

332.79​

Bonillo, Alina

S/J

Y

N/N

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

119.03​

89.27​

119.03​

104.15​

0.00​

0.00​

0

197.14​

Cui, Ting

S

Y

N

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0

0.00​

Evans, Alex

S

Y

N

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

162.11​

148.91​

0

114.98​

Everhardt, Sarah

S/J

Y

Y/Y

196.94​

157.55​

196.94​

177.25​

196.42​

201.90​

201.90​

199.16​

0.00​

0.00​

0

819.00​

Gewalt, Brooke

S

Y

4CCs

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

153.39​

0

76.70​

Glenn, Amber

S

Y

Y

210.44​

168.35​

210.44​

189.40​

212.89​

159.67​

212.89​

186.28​

0.00​

0.00​

4

912.39​

Heiner, Jill

S

Y

N

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0

0.00​

Hilmer, Sonja

S

Y

4CCs

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

151.43​

113.57​

151.43​

132.50​

0.00​

0.00​

0

250.81​

Lee, Michelle

S

Y

4CCs

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

154.59​

115.94​

154.59​

135.27​

0.00​

0.00​

0

256.04​

Levito, Isabeau

S/J

Y

Y/N

194.83​

155.86​

194.83​

175.35​

193.81​

198.13​

198.13​

195.97​

0.00​

0.00​

12

987.83​

Lin-Gracey, Elyce

S/J

Y

Y/Y

0.00​

183.94​

182.37​

183.94​

183.16​

193.99​

213.33​

213.33​

203.66​

0.00​

0.00​

0

824.94​

Liu, Alysa

S/J

Y

Y/N

187.69​

150.15​

187.69​

168.92​

192.77​

144.58​

192.77​

168.67​

0.00​

0.00​

0

765.04​

Seo, Clare

S/J

Y

PEND/4CCs/N

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

147.66​

110.75​

147.66​

129.20​

0.00​

0.00​

0

244.56​

Tennell, Bradie

S

Y

Y

192.04​

153.63​

192.04​

172.84​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

196.61​

0.00​

0

505.25​

Thorngren, Lindsay

S/J

Y

Y/N

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

179.45​

134.59​

179.45​

157.02​

191.55​

0.00​

0

345.10​

Wang, Lindsay

S

Y

N

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0

0.00​

Warne-Jacobsen, Wren

S

Y

N

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

141.63​

106.22​

141.63​

123.93​

0.00​

0.00​

0

234.57​

Ziegler, Ava

S/J

Y

Y/N

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

3

45.00​

Junior -

Skater

Level

Age Eligible

ISU Min Score

2024 U.S. Nats

GPF

GP/ JGP 1

GP/ JGP 2

GP/ JPG Highest

GP/ JGP Avg

CS/ Sr B/ Jr Int 1

CS/ Sr B/ Jr Int 2

CS/ Sr B/ Jr Int Highest

CS/ Sr B/ Jr Int Avg

Sect Final (Top 2 in each Section JR/SR)

NQS Score (Top 2 in each Section JR/SR)

Non-USFS Funded Event

Prev Yr Final Number

Total

Bezkorovainaya, Sofia

J

Y

Y

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

158.52​

118.89​

158.52​

138.71​

0.00​

170.17​

0

347.63​

Bonillo, Alina

S/J

Y

N/N

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

119.03​

89.27​

119.03​

104.15​

0.00​

0.00​

0

197.14​

Chao, Annika

J

Y

Y

0.00​

157.66​

126.13​

157.66​

141.89​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

173.12​

0.00​

0

417.72​

Coats, Alayna

J

Y

N

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0

0.00​

Everhardt, Sarah

S/J

Y

Y/Y

196.94​

157.55​

196.94​

177.25​

196.42​

201.90​

201.90​

199.16​

0.00​

0.00​

0

819.00​

Higase-Chen, Logan

S (J)

Y

Y

0.00​

161.98​

129.58​

161.98​

145.78​

169.45​

127.09​

169.45​

148.27​

191.63​

0.00​

0

713.26​

Hilbelink, Keira

S (J)

Y

N

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0

0.00​

Jurka, Jessica

J

Y

Y

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

151.86​

113.90​

151.86​

132.88​

172.49​

0.00​

0

294.64​

Kalin, Mia

S (J)

Y

Y

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

168.35​

126.26​

168.35​

147.31​

193.35​

0.00​

0

327.17​

Lautowa-Peguero, Skyler

J

N

N

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

178.59​

0.00​

0

44.65​

Lee, Josephine

S (J)

Y

Y

0.00​

166.54​

133.23​

166.54​

149.89​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

2

425.53​

Levito, Isabeau

S/J

Y

Y/N

194.83​

155.86​

194.83​

175.35​

193.81​

198.13​

198.13​

195.97​

0.00​

0.00​

12

987.83​

Lin-Gracey, Elyce

S/J

Y

Y/Y

0.00​

183.94​

182.37​

183.94​

183.16​

193.99​

213.33​

213.33​

203.66​

0.00​

0.00​

0

824.94​

Liu, Alysa

S/J

Y

Y/N

187.69​

150.15​

187.69​

168.92​

192.77​

144.58​

192.77​

168.67​

0.00​

0.00​

0

765.04​

Nemirovsky, Emilia

J

Y

Y

0.00​

147.05​

117.64​

147.05​

132.35​

180.37​

135.28​

180.37​

157.82​

167.50​

0.00​

0

689.86​

Park, Cleo

J

Y

Y

0.00​

149.88​

119.90​

149.88​

134.89​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

187.33​

0.00​

0

402.80​

Seo, Clare

S/J

Y

PEND/4CCs/N

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

147.66​

110.75​

147.66​

129.20​

0.00​

0.00​

0

244.56​

Shen, Katie

S (J)

Y

Y

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

179.10​

0.00​

0

44.78​

Thorngren, Lindsay

S/J

Y

Y/N

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

179.45​

134.59​

179.45​

157.02​

191.55​

0.00​

0

345.10​

von Felten, Sophie Joline

J

Y

Y

0.00​

197.41​

150.25​

197.41​

173.83​

152.72​

114.54​

152.72​

133.63​

176.44​

0.00​

0

761.10​

Zhang, Sherry

S (J)

Y

Y

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0

0.00​

Ziegler, Ava

S/J

Y

Y/N

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

3

45.00​

 

[Theatregirl1122]

I mean, fans can want what they want but there is a literal 0% that USFSA leaves Amber or Isabeau home if they finish in the top 3 at nationals. It's not even worth talking about.

 

[Private Citizen]

She may not qualify for what? The Worlds free skate?

Yeah. If Everhardt has a pop in the short program, I could see her outside of the top 24. She doesn’t have the base value or the PCS.

she either has to get more difficult combos or actually put in the work for presentation and skating skills to put herself in the next tier of skaters. She doesn't have a cushion.

She’s so consistent that I think her programs are probably not challenging enough. I would have liked to see her try harder combos. This is the time for it. Content that does great in the early season often isn’t enough come peak time.

 

[Karen-W]

I mean, fans can want what they want but there is a literal 0% that USFSA leaves Amber or Isabeau home if they finish in the top 3 at nationals. It's not even worth talking about.

I don't think anyone is really arguing that Amber or Isabeau are on the Worlds team if they're Top 3 at Nats. I know I'm not.

Do I think they are both going to be Top 3 at Nats? Who knows? It's absolutely conceivable that we have a scenario where the Nats results are 1-Amber, 2-Sarah, 3-Bradie, 4-Isabeau, 5-Alysa, 6-Elyce. Or 1-Isabeau, 2-Elyce, 3-Alysa, 4-Sarah, 5-Amber, 6-Bradie. Or a bunch of other permutations. But, going with the two permutations I offered up just now - I think it's entirely possible the USFS would just stick with the Top 3 results if we're talking about a team consisting of Amber, Sarah & Bradie OR a team consisting of Isabeau, Elyce & Alysa.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

I didn’t think you were. There are some people in this thread saying Amber should not be sent, though.

 

[Karen-W]

I didn’t think you were. There are some people in this thread saying Amber should not be sent, though.

Definitely. Right now, I think it's sort of breaking down like this:

Group A - Amber/Isabeau
Group B - Bradie/Alysa
Group C - Sarah/Elyce

If the Top 3 at Nats has 1 Group A woman & 2 Group C women, one of those Group C women is staying home in favor of whichever of the 3 remaining Group A/B women finishes 4th. So, Amber-Sarah-Elyce-Bradie-Isabeau-Alysa would give us a Worlds team of Amber-Sarah-Bradie.

If the Top 3 at Nats has 1 Group B woman & 2 Group C women... That's where things could get really interesting and may depend on how close the results are between 2nd through 5th, but the Group B woman will absolutely be on the Worlds Team.

I do think it is 100% certain that if Sarah & Elyce are BOTH in the Top 3 at Nats, only one of them makes the Worlds team; plus there are some scenarios where even if they're both Top 3, they both may be left off the Worlds team.

 

[layman]

I just watched Amber's Long from the NBC broadcast and I was impressed! Amber as recently as last season, would have crumbled after the mistakes, but this Amber (version 2.0) is not giving up without a fight! I was very impressed. It's clear that Amber is still struggling with imposter syndrome (and the self-doubt that causes it) but I think that she is (bit by bit and competition after competition) winning the battle against that. I have no doubt that Amber will do even better at her next competitions.

Sarah Everhardt was her usual consistent self. I could tell she was nervous but she did not allow the nerves to affect her performance (Ilia Malinin's advice to her is paying off). Sarah has made huge, enormous strides artistically from last season to this season. Working with Shae-Lynn Bourne, getting advice from Gracie Gold and getting advice from Carolina Kostner is paying off! Remember, Carolina Kostner was right where Sarah is now at this stage in her career. It took Carolina another Olympic cycle (or two) to really perfect her artistry. I can see all Sarah Everhardt's artistic hard work and thankfully the judges can too!

 

[Private Citizen]

If the Top 3 at Nats has 1 Group A woman & 2 Group C women, one of those Group C women is staying home in favor of whichever of the 3 remaining Group A/B women finishes 4th. So, Amber-Sarah-Elyce-Bradie-Isabeau-Alysa would give us a Worlds team of Amber-Sarah-Bradie.

I totally disagree that Tennell has done anything close enough to bump anyone from the world team. She was out last season with injury and finished 5th in her GP and second in a challenger. I’d put her in your Group C. And I wouldn’t move her out of there even if she freakishly won NHK. There’s no way she should be on a world team over anyone on body of work. Top 3 at Nationals only (and imo she could be bumped if she’s top 3 and Isabeau or Amber are below).

I feel similarly about Liu, though less strongly since she is at least a past world medalist.

 

[Karen-W]

I totally disagree that Tennell has done anything close enough to bump anyone from the world team. She was out last season with injury and finished 5th in her GP and second in a challenger. I’d put her in your Group C. And I wouldn’t move her out of there even if she freakishly won NHK. There’s no way she should be on a world team over anyone on body of work. Top 3 at Nationals only (and imo she could be bumped if she’s top 3 and Isabeau or Amber are below).

I feel similarly about Liu, though less strongly since she is at least a past world medalist.

I can see your POV regarding Tennell and Liu and I don't know that I necessarily disagree with what you're saying regarding BOW or even scoring potential, to be honest. But because they are both past Olympians and National Champions, I think they're going to have a slight edge over Everhardt & Lin-Gracey if the results at Nats are close. A lot of that may depend on how close the scores are and what both of them (as well as Everhardt) do in their remaining GPs.

Mind, based on how Bradie did at Worlds in 2021 and 2023, I wouldn't be averse to bumping her off the Worlds team in favor of Isabeau/Alysa if the Nats results have some combination of Amber/Elyce/Sarah in 1st & 2nd with Bradie in 3rd followed Isabeau/Alysa in 4th, mostly because I do believe that Isabeau & Alysa are much steadier competitors under pressure than Bradie has proven to be when results matter.

Right now, for me, my ideal Worlds team would probably be Amber, Isabeau & Sarah. I think they're the strongest trio with the most consistent scoring and, like I said yesterday, Sarah's scores are solidly in the 6-10 range at Worlds the past couple seasons. Whatever you think of her ceiling right now unless & until she upgrades to a harder triple-triple and/or improves her PCS, that's a scoring consistency that is hard to ignore when you want to send the most reliable team to lock in the spots PLUS give one of the younger women that major ISU Championship experience in the pre-Olympic season. By the same token, I can totally see the argument in favor of sending her to Jr Worlds and putting Elyce on the Worlds team instead. Again, that type of consistency is hard to ignore, especially if you're hoping to maximize JGP spots next season too.

It's a good problem to have, lol. And, also, thank goodness Japan can only send 3 women to Worlds, lol.

 

[honey]

Yeah. If Everhardt has a pop in the short program, I could see her outside of the top 24. She doesn’t have the base value or the PCS.



She’s so consistent that I think her programs are probably not challenging enough. I would have liked to see her try harder combos. This is the time for it. Content that does great in the early season often isn’t enough come peak time.

I would assume if Sarah could do more difficult combos consistently well (ie rotated) then she would be trying them. Her combo technique is not super amazing with a lot of swinging of the back and hammer toeing into the ice. I don’t know if she could get a 3T off the lutz easily tbh.

But her consistency is going to be tough for others to overcome domestically. She’s like a mid 2000s Romanian gymnast. Others might be flashier and doing more, but she will rarely make a mistake and that often wins the day. In her case winning the day might mean the ticket to worlds rather than the title though. One thing going against her at nationals is going to be the long history of the tech panel overlooking under rotations. She is rotating her jumps most of the time. But if everyone else gets away with calls at nationals, this hurts her a little as her tech advantage gets eroded and she should be well behind in PCS vs all of Liu, Levito, Glenn, Tennell and Lin-Gracey as well but to a lesser extent.

I would wait to see how Alysa and Isabeau look at their next events before predicting too much for nationals and who has an advantage or not.

 

[RoseRed]

Okay, per notes from @ice coverage in the US Ice Dance thread, I've updated the tables for both jr & sr.

Senior -

Skater

Level

Age Eligible

ISU Min Score

2024 U.S. Nats

GPF

GP/ JGP 1

GP/ JGP 2

GP/ JPG Highest

GP/ JGP Avg

CS/ Sr B/ Jr Int 1

CS/ Sr B/ Jr Int 2

CS/ Sr B/ Jr Int Highest

CS/ Sr B/ Jr Int Avg

Sect Final (Top 2 in each Section JR/SR)

NQS Score (Top 2 in each Section JR/SR)

Non-USFS Funded Event

Prev Yr Final Number

Total

Andrews, Starr

S

Y

Y

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

164.89​

151.65​

164.89​

158.27​

196.77​

0.00​

0

332.79​

Bonillo, Alina

S/J

Y

N/N

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

119.03​

89.27​

119.03​

104.15​

0.00​

0.00​

0

197.14​

Cui, Ting

S

Y

N

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0

0.00​

Evans, Alex

S

Y

N

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

162.11​

148.91​

0

114.98​

Everhardt, Sarah

S/J

Y

Y/Y

196.94​

157.55​

196.94​

177.25​

196.42​

201.90​

201.90​

199.16​

0.00​

0.00​

0

819.00​

Gewalt, Brooke

S

Y

4CCs

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

153.39​

0

76.70​

Glenn, Amber

S

Y

Y

210.44​

168.35​

210.44​

189.40​

212.89​

159.67​

212.89​

186.28​

0.00​

0.00​

4

912.39​

Heiner, Jill

S

Y

N

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0

0.00​

Hilmer, Sonja

S

Y

4CCs

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

151.43​

113.57​

151.43​

132.50​

0.00​

0.00​

0

250.81​

Lee, Michelle

S

Y

4CCs

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

154.59​

115.94​

154.59​

135.27​

0.00​

0.00​

0

256.04​

Levito, Isabeau

S/J

Y

Y/N

194.83​

155.86​

194.83​

175.35​

193.81​

198.13​

198.13​

195.97​

0.00​

0.00​

12

987.83​

Lin-Gracey, Elyce

S/J

Y

Y/Y

0.00​

183.94​

182.37​

183.94​

183.16​

193.99​

213.33​

213.33​

203.66​

0.00​

0.00​

0

824.94​

Liu, Alysa

S/J

Y

Y/N

187.69​

150.15​

187.69​

168.92​

192.77​

144.58​

192.77​

168.67​

0.00​

0.00​

0

765.04​

Seo, Clare

S/J

Y

PEND/4CCs/N

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

147.66​

110.75​

147.66​

129.20​

0.00​

0.00​

0

244.56​

Tennell, Bradie

S

Y

Y

192.04​

153.63​

192.04​

172.84​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

196.61​

0.00​

0

505.25​

Thorngren, Lindsay

S/J

Y

Y/N

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

179.45​

134.59​

179.45​

157.02​

191.55​

0.00​

0

345.10​

Wang, Lindsay

S

Y

N

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0

0.00​

Warne-Jacobsen, Wren

S

Y

N

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

141.63​

106.22​

141.63​

123.93​

0.00​

0.00​

0

234.57​

Ziegler, Ava

S/J

Y

Y/N

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

3

45.00​

​

I think there is a small error with the 2nd CS scores for skaters who only had 1. It looks like you did 75% (the overall factor) of their 1st CS scores instead of 80%. For example for Sonja Hilmer, I think her 2nd CS should be 121.44 (80% of 151.43), giving an average of 136.29. I took a quick look and I see the same issue with the men's tables (haven't looked at the others). It looks right for the GP 2nd scores, 80% of the 1st score.

 

[Karen-W]

I think there is a small error with the 2nd CS scores for skaters who only had 1. It looks like you did 75% (the overall factor) of their 1st CS scores instead of 80%. For example for Sonja Hilmer, I think her 2nd CS should be 121.44 (80% of 151.43), giving an average of 136.29. I took a quick look and I see the same issue with the men's tables (haven't looked at the others). It looks right for the GP 2nd scores, 80% of the 1st score.

Ahhh, yes, I was operating under the impression that the 2nd CS were supposed to be weighted at .75 rather than .8 - I'll correct it, but I'm going to wait to post updated tables until after NHK this week.

 

[PRlady]

So glad there are people here who did well in math…..

 

[RoseRed]

Ahhh, yes, I was operating under the impression that the 2nd CS were supposed to be weighted at .75 rather than .8 - I'll correct it, but I'm going to wait to post updated tables until after NHK this week.

Fair. I only noticed because I keeping my own tables and I noticed we had different totals.

Also I'm surprised Shanghai Trophy counts under NQS, but I guess it doesn't count as a senior B so it gets stuck there? And do I understand correctly that only the top 2 women per section get to count a NQS score?

 

[Karen-W]

Also I'm surprised Shanghai Trophy counts under NQS, but I guess it doesn't count as a senior B so it gets stuck there? And do I understand correctly that only the top 2 women per section get to count a NQS score?

Argh! I thought I'd switched it over to non-USFS funded int'l for Bradie. I know I made the change on the Pairs & Men's tables, lol.

The header on the sample table says that it's Top 2 from NQS for each section, so that's what I'm going with. Same with the Sectional Finals scores. Last season when they started this, the NQS scores were superseded by the Sectionals scores, then the Sectionals scores were superseded by the Nationals scores, but that does not seem to be the intent this season in reading over either the table or the appendix.

For those curious, here's what the appendix says (and, as noted earlier re: Alysa & Bradie - the headers on the sample table specifically state 2024 for the Previous categories mentioned in the appendix):

Appendix: Calculation of Overall Athlete Performance Data
Current Competition Season

Current U.S. Championships	Athlete/Team score with a factor of 4
Current Season JGP/GP Final	Athlete/Team score with a factor of 3
JGP/GP Highest Score	Highest score with a factor of 1.25
JGP/GP Average Score	Average score with a factor of 1.25 (if athlete/team has only one event in this category 80% of their first event score will be added to the second event column to determine an average)
Challenger Series/Senior B/Junior International Highest	Highest score with a factor of 1
Challenger Series/Senior B/Junior International Average	Average score with a factor of .75 (if athlete/team has only one event in this category 80% of their first event score will be added to the second event column to determine an average)
Sectional Finals (Top 2 in each Section NOV/JR/SR)	Score with a factor of 0.5
NQS Score (NOV/JR/SR)	Score with a factor of 0.25
Previous Olympics/ World Championships	Champion receives 12 points, 2-3 placements receive 10 points, 4-8 placements receive 5 points (better placement of the two)
Previous Four Continents Championships	Top 3 receives 6 points, 4-5 receives 3 points
Previous World Junior Championships	Top 3 receives 8 points
Previous U.S. Championships	Champion receives 4 points, 2-3 receives 2 points
Previous Partner- Pairs/Ice Dance	Most recent partner within the current quad, only the listed competitions above with previous partner receive .25 points of their awarded points
Previous Year Final Calculation Number	Total score combined from Previous Olympics/World Championships, Four Continents, World Junior Championships, U.S. Championships points at a factor of 15

If an athlete/team does not have a score for a JGP/GP/Challenger Series/Senior B/Junior International, 80% of an average score will be added to the column without data.

Example:- If an athlete/team competes at a JGP/GP, but not at a Challenger Series/Senior B/Junior International, 80% of the average score of the JGP/GP will be entered into the highest and average score for the Challenger Series/Senior B/Junior International columns.

If an athlete/team did not compete at a JGP/GP/Challenger Series/Senior B/Junior International, no scores will be added to those columns.

 

[DreamSkates]

I think usfs will and should send one seasoned competitor to worlds even if that skater is prone to rotation/caller issues. Which means one of Brandie Alysa and now perhaps Levito. They are known to do decent shorts for one

Levito earned a world silver medal last year. Alysa has won a bronze, although not recent. The newcomers haven’t had those results yet.

 

[Coco]

LOL at the Romanian gymnast comparison. So true!! But we'll take it!

 

[kwanfan1818]

If USFS is looking at the best odds of choosing three women to make the free skate, and they are trying to mitigate the risk, they'd choose skaters who:

1. Have the PCS to counter a pop or missed jump element
2. Have a high enough starting order to be given the benefit of the doubt. Since they're doing groups at championships based purely on WS, and not having a random draw of the "bottom half" anymore.
3. Be a gamer

I'm assuming that Levito would have to drop like a rock at Nationals, and Glenn would have to falter, without as much leeway as Levito would have.

So far, in PCS, Tennell received all 8's in PCS in both programs at Skate America, while Liu ranged from mid-high 7's in her Skate Canada SP and mid '7's in her FS and in Budapest.

As far as WS go, Levito is #2, and Glenn is #9, with a suspended skater above her, and more comps to go, plus a very good shot at GPF. Lin-Gracey's (18, no open GP or international slots)~350 points ahead of Thorngren (22, one international slot, max incremental points 40 for a win) at the moment, which would be higher after Lee and >three Japanese skaters are removed. Tennell's currently at 40 with one GP to go and two open international slots, and Everhardt's at 49, with one GP open slot.

Yes, to have that ugly discussion again, anyone but Levito and, possibly Glenn, will need to be at 4C's for WS points, since they will drop like rocks after Euros.

 

[Karen-W]

As far as WS go, Levito is #2, and Glenn is #9, with a suspended skater above her, and more comps to go, plus a very good shot at GPF. Lin-Gracey's (18, no open GP or international slots)~350 points ahead of Thorngren (22, one international slot, max incremental points 40 for a win) at the moment, which would be higher after Lee and >three Japanese skaters are removed. Tennell's currently at 40 with one GP to go and two open international slots, and Everhardt's at 49, with one GP open slot.

Yes, to have that ugly discussion again, anyone but Levito and, possibly Glenn, will need to be at 4C's for WS points, since they will drop like rocks after Euros.

or Jr Worlds...

Where are they going to send Tennell to get points to fill the 2 int'l slots? Golden Spin seems likely but anything in January would have to be early enough for her to be able to peak for Nats. And, as you point out, she'll need ISU Championship points from 4CCs, which rules out most of the February comps post-Nats. Liu needs the WS points even more than either Tennell or Everhardt.

 

[kwanfan1818]

Liu needs the WS points even more than either Tennell or Everhardt.

She's down at 113 with 536 points, and only one open spot. She's in a similar boat as Tennell, who has 1232 in 40th. Even with good results at an international and 4C's, Liu would be digging herself out of an early start.

Jr. Worlds maxes out at 500 points, which isn't nothing, but Top 5 at 4C's earns more than that.

 

[Coco]

At least the schedule allows for 4ccs this season. They are in South Korea 2/18 - 2/23. Nationals ends January 26th and Worlds starts March 25th.

 

[Karen-W]

She's down at 113 with 536 points, and only one open spot. She's in a similar boat as Tennell, who has 1232 in 40th. Even with good results at an international and 4C's, Liu would be digging herself out of an early start.

Jr. Worlds maxes out at 500 points, which isn't nothing, but Top 5 at 4C's earns more than that.

Right. None of the 4 are in a great place for a later group start at Worlds.

Honestly, I don't think any of them have much of an edge over the other in the SP. I also don't think there is any major reason we should worry about any of them failing to make the FS unless they have a Vincent/Kevin/Katia-like meltdown. Sarah may be at a slight disadvantage because her 3t+3t has the lowest BV, but she's also not risking an edge or q/< call on it generally.

Looking at the rest of the women, internationally, for the SP... taking into account senior age-eligible women and the country limits for Worlds, right now, a SP score of 55 would safely qualify for the FS. Elyce's very bad SPs at SkAm & SCI were still well above that threshold, and I tend to believe the same would be true for the others.

 

[kwanfan1818]

If I weren't hugely superstitious, I would like your post, @Karen-W, but ice is slippery, and even Oda missed the FS once. I worry about everything, lol.

 

[Karen-W]

If I weren't hugely superstitious, I would like your post, @Karen-W, but ice is slippery, and even Oda missed the FS once. I worry about everything, lol.

Oh, I hear ya! I was cringing as I typed that last post, lol. I will fully accept any and all FSU flagellation if one of the US women prove me wrong in March!

 

[skatfan]

I am going on the record that Sarah’s performances are improving. I thought Firebird was much improved in France. Yes, she has a long way to go, but is not (to me) an awful PCS skater. By Nationals I hope for more and can see her making either the 4CCs or Worlds teams.

 

[Bulletsdad]

NHK is going to be telling for Alysa. If she's still underrotating her 3t and 3s in her fs, I think she should try the 3lz/2a/2a sequence in practice for Nationals. This will allow her to avoid triple/triples in the fs, while maintaining base value. The layout may not be as impressive, but getting on the world team is what matters.

 

[AYS]

I am going on the record that Sarah’s performances are improving. I thought Firebird was much improved in France. Yes, she has a long way to go, but is not (to me) an awful PCS skater. By Nationals I hope for more and can see her making either the 4CCs or Worlds teams.

I'm not particularly sold on her skating, but I'll go on the record saying she's improved a LOT in the past couple of years. I saw her compete junior in a couple of local competitions 2-3 years ago and I absolutely did not peg her as someone who would be competitive the Sr GP in the near future. Expression doesn't come naturally to her, but I do think it's something you can improve.

I kind of thought she was skating with a little less speed and freedom in France vs Cranberry, it seemed like she had nerves, which is understandable at your first Sr GP.

 

[Sylvia]

As posted in the Grand Prix Assignments thread, Isabeau withdrew from GP Finlandia Trophy today - hopefully it's nothing serious and she will be fine for Nationals.

 

[YukiNieve]

Reposting from her fan thread… Amber is the cover story (no jinx please! ) in USFS’ Fall 2024 SKATING magazine: https://online.flippingbook.com/view/791974542/

Has anybody got this issue? I was hoping to see it at Skate America but USFS had no booth there.