U.S. Men 2020-21 season news & updates

[Vagabond]

I think most of us believe that Chen, Brown and Zhou are the favorites (in that order)

If I were the betting type, I'd bet on Malinin over at least one of Brown and Zhou, if not both. Value for money.

 

[Karen-W]

If I were the betting type, I'd bet on Malinin over at least one of Brown and Zhou, if not both. Value for money.

Same. I've been thinking that since his JGP debut last season (it's still technically last season, since we haven't hit July 1st yet, right? lol), and his Skate America performance last fall was also commendable. My only concern is that he has missed the last 2 Nationals due to injuries. It makes me worry that he'll have a great fall and injure himself in December just enough to keep him from being at his best at Nationals.

 

[Vagabond]

My only concern is that he has missed the last 2 Nationals due to injuries. It makes me worry that he'll have a great fall and injure himself in December just enough to keep him from being at his best at Nationals.

I know how you feel.

 

[Dobre]

If all of the competitive guys are healthy for next season, then I'm good & feel like the U.S. can send a great team.

The men are the men. It might not pan out, no matter how good they are--as was evidenced at Worlds and has been evidenced for many men from many countries at many Worlds over the last 10 years. But overall, I think this is a great national field of guys & I've so much enjoyed them this quadrennium. Took a long time to get here, and I am appreciating this competitive, talented, and enjoyable field while it lasts.

 

[misskarne]

My gut says that, should both Brown and Zhou falter at Nationals next year after having decent fall seasons (no implosions, but neither making the GPF), only one of them is going to get the benefit of BOW and my money would be on Zhou.

But why? That makes no actual sense. Let's break it down.

2021-2022 - we are assuming similar GP seasons.

2020-2021 - Zhou gets silver at the not-really-GP Skate America, Brown doesn't get a GP due to 'rona. At Worlds, Brown finishes top 10, while Zhou doesn't even make the free skate.

So at this point, Brown should be considered ahead of Zhou on BOW. Let's assume you want to add another previous season.

2019-2020 - No GP for Zhou by his own choice, Brown has a silver and 5th. Brown also has a silver from 4CC, which Zhou did not attend, again by his own choice.

Even if you go to three seasons' BOW, it makes no sense on numbers and results to say that Zhou would be considered ahead of Brown on BOW.

 

[Rukia]

That was a wonderful performance. This is my favorite Matt Savoie program.

Matt Savoie 2005 U.S. Nationals Short Program

This program and his performance of it gives me chills. I'm completely furious at how low the judges scored him. He was clearly the best of the competition i...

m.youtube.com

I could come in this thread to snipe about who's going to make a team that's months of skating and injuries and stress away or I could come and say this is my absolute favorite program of all time.

Obviously I chose to cheer for Matt Savoie as he deserves.

 

[Karen-W]

But why? That makes no actual sense. Let's break it down.

2021-2022 - we are assuming similar GP seasons.

2020-2021 - Zhou gets silver at the not-really-GP Skate America, Brown doesn't get a GP due to 'rona. At Worlds, Brown finishes top 10, while Zhou doesn't even make the free skate.

So at this point, Brown should be considered ahead of Zhou on BOW. Let's assume you want to add another previous season.

2019-2020 - No GP for Zhou by his own choice, Brown has a silver and 5th. Brown also has a silver from 4CC, which Zhou did not attend, again by his own choice.

Even if you go to three seasons' BOW, it makes no sense on numbers and results to say that Zhou would be considered ahead of Brown on BOW.

Brown could have traveled to Las Vegas for SkAm, just like H/D and H/B did - it was his choice to not attend, just like it was Zhou's choice to skip the GP in 2019-20 as well as 2020 4CCs. And, when you factor in 2021 Nationals (which you chose to leave off your list) Vincent won silver by nearly 15 points over Jason who finished 3rd.

So, really, I'd call the 2020-21 season dead even between Brown and Zhou.

What the 2019-20 season says to me - for both Brown and Zhou, especially when you also include the 2020 Nationals results where Jason won silver by 8+ points over Tomoki who finished 3rd and by 11+ points over Vincent in 4th, is that they are both pretty inconsistent. A 2nd & 5th on the GP doesn't exactly scream that he's getting the job done every time he goes out there on the ice, not to mention his 2020 4CCs score was about 18 points lower than his 2020 Nationals score - even taking into consideration the usual Nats score inflation, that's a pretty significant drop.

I just don't see either of them having a lock on any BOW argument.

 

[Vagabond]

I could come in this thread to snipe about who's going to make a team that's months of skating and injuries and stress away or I could come and say this is my absolute favorite program of all time.

Obviously I chose to cheer for Matt Savoie as he deserves.

#priorities

 

[rfisher]

It's going to be Torgashev. #Istillbelieve

 

[miffy]

I’ll throw in a cheer for Tomoki making the team, I know it’s unlikely but you never know

 

[Vagabond]

Chen, Brown, Zhou
Chen, Brown, Malinin
Chen, Zhou, Malinin
Chen, Brown, Torgashev
Chen, Zhou, Torgashev
Chen, Brown, Hiwatashi
Chen, Zhou, Hiwatashi
Potential third spot lost at Nebelhorn
Malinin, Torgashev, Hiwatashi

 

[rfisher]

Malinin, Torgashev, Naumov.

Russian-Americans in China.

 

[Debbie S]

Skate Canada was canceled after SA assignments were made. At that point, Jason couldn't have gone to SA unless someone was uninvited, which for obvious reasons wasn't happening. I assume he/USFS initially preferred SC b/c of logistics - he wouldn't have to quarantine upon return and lose 2 weeks of training time.

 

[Karen-W]

Chen, Brown, Zhou
Chen, Brown, Malinin
Chen, Zhou, Malinin
Chen, Brown, Torgashev
Chen, Zhou, Torgashev
Chen, Brown, Hiwatashi
Chen, Zhou, Hiwatashi
Potential third spot lost at Nebelhorn
Malinin, Torgashev, Hiwatashi

Blasphemy leaving Chen off your list!

And, really, if you're going all on us, how dare you leave Pulkinen off any list?

 

[Vagabond]

Blasphemy leaving Chen off your list!

And, really, if you're going all on us, how dare you leave Pulkinen off any list?

Wait till you see my predictions for Four Continents.

 

[Karen-W]

Wait till you see my predictions for Four Continents.

Well, Pulkinen could always skate for Thailand, lol.

 

[maureenfarone]

Me too!! I still get chills every time I re-watch this performance from 2006 Nationals:

Matt Savoie 2006 U.S. Nationals (The Mission)

Matt Savoie 2006 U.S. Nationals (The Mission)The 2006 U.S. Figure Skating Championships took place between January 7 and 15, 2006 at the Savvis Center in St....

www.youtube.com

I would have given Matt all the medals for that performance! Loved it then and now.

 

[clairecloutier]

Most US skaters seem to love the team event, and it's also a great chance to get comfortable in the venue and show you are the one to beat. Plus I cannot see Nathan turning down the opportunity/obligation to bring a medal home for his team mates and country. And himself - I think Mr. Multitasker needs all the medals.

Definitely agree with this. I cannot imagine Nathan skipping the team event, unless he had an injury. I am sure he would want to contribute toward a team medal. And his score could be important to the team.

 

[missing]

Me too!! I still get chills every time I re-watch this performance from 2006 Nationals:

Matt Savoie 2006 U.S. Nationals (The Mission)

Matt Savoie 2006 U.S. Nationals (The Mission)The 2006 U.S. Figure Skating Championships took place between January 7 and 15, 2006 at the Savvis Center in St....

www.youtube.com

Not only was it wonderful to watch that program again, it was great to catch a glimpse of the American Flag folk. We were all so much younger 15 years ago.

 

[Tahuu]

Nathan, Jason and Vincent have a leg up over others on bow, ability and experience. Baring a meltdown at Nationals, I think they are likely to be named to the US Olympic team.

Nathan is again most likely to skate the short program at the team event. Who, Jason or Vincent, would get the other spot? No one is sure. But they can prepare to present their cases.

For Jason, he needs to show he is consistent and he can get his FS score and expected placement.

For Vincent, as l said earlier, he needs to score consistently higher than Jason in the FSs all season. If he’s up and down, the committee will not have confidence in him to score well for the team event.

Vincent may get some sympathy points in that he has not have an Olympic team chance and medal before and he is more likely than Jason to come back for the 2026 Games for the US.

 

[Vagabond]

Yet another thread stolen by Matthew Savoie!

 

[Lacey]

Yet another thread stolen by Matthew Savoie!

LOVED IT!!!

But I am embarrassed to say my pea brain does not remember why Lysacek's program (not shown here) scored higher?

(So sorry if I opened up a can of worms.)

 

[Carolla5501]

Oh, please. I'm a fan of Jason's skating and have been since he burst on the senior national scene. But, I'm also realistic about his chances of making another Olympic team. Unless he gets a reliable quad that he's landing in competition regularly, I don't see any reason why Jason should have a stranglehold on the 2nd or 3rd spot on the US men's Olympic team; and unless he starts being a lot more consistent in competition, neither should Vincent. That being said, if I'm fairly handicapping the field, Vincent does have a technical advantage when he doesn't melt down.

My gut says that, should both Brown and Zhou falter at Nationals next year after having decent fall seasons (no implosions, but neither making the GPF), only one of them is going to get the benefit of BOW and my money would be on Zhou. If the USFS is going to be giving our 2nd/3rd guys a shot at an Olympic team medal, they're not going to give it to a guy who already has one if he doesn't deliver at Nationals. And, I'm pretty certain that one of the newer seniors will also make the team.

Your gut apparently didn’t watch worlds this year and I’m sure the committee making a decision did.
Sorry but I think Jason is in a better spot than Vincent. Jason has recently shown he can deliver Vincent hasn’t. Plus the committee knows that judges love Jason’s style. He may not medal but he will get good scores.

I think it Vincent wants to go over Jason he better be decisively better at Nationals

 

[Willin]

Vincent definitely has more medal potential than Jason, but also a lot more implosion potential at big events as shown at multiple events. Jason's consistently GP medalist and World Top 10 material. He rarely falls except on quad attempts and most mistakes he makes are popping triples to doubles or a UR as at worlds - minor and impacting the score, but not taking him out of the race. Vincent either skates lights out (but with more URs than Jason) or tanks, and given recent events and trajectories (Jason closer to a quad, Vincent struggling to balance school/new coaches/skating) USFS would be right not to trust him as much as Jason.

 

[Tahuu]

I am surprised Jason and Vincent have nearly identical mean FS scores under the new IJS at international competitions. Jason has higher mean SP and mean total scores but they are not statistically significant. I guess whoever gets silver at 2021 Nationals will likely get picked to skate his FS at the Olympic team event.

Jason	SP (n=12)	FS (n=12)	Total (n=12)	Vincent	SP (n=11)	FS (n=10)	Total (n=10)
	88.17+8.20	163.65+9.46	251.83+13.52		84.52+13.91	163.64+20.46	249.72+32.45
P (J vs V)	0.4768	0.9988	0.8583

 

[AxelAnnie]

Yet another thread stolen by Matthew Savoie!

That is a blast from the past. I REALLY enjoyed his skating.

 

[olympic]

I am intrigued by the mention upthread of Malinin as a choice for the 2022 team. It might be a smart strategy but obviously he would have to prove himself internationally from here on out.

I assume Chen, Zhou and Brown will retire after 2022, and US men will desperately need a new leader. Malinin is the youngster with tons of potential. An Olympic experience might prime him for 2026 in the ISU's eyes.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

Has Zhou said he’s planning to retire after this year? He’s only 20. That’s quite young for retirement for a man.

 

[Sylvia]

Besides Krasnozhon's decision to retire and start at Texas Christian University Honors College this fall

On Ice Perspectives' video of his SP (in 2 parts) posted as a farewell tribute 2 days ago: https://www.instagram.com/p/CPdkvR0rtmv/
Also on OIP’s YT channel: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oq7aB0pAF7I

Has Zhou said he’s planning to retire after this year? He’s only 20. That’s quite young for retirement for a man.

He has said he plans to return to Brown University in 2022 (his ice time & training challenges were well-documented during his first and only semester in Providence, RI in the fall of 2019).

ETA (ICYMI, Annis really gets impressive height in this clip):

*William Annis -- clip of him landing a big 4Lo from a February practice: https://www.instagram.com/p/CO0z93KAybf/
...
* = has had previous JGP experience

Vs. Malinin's quick rotation (filmed from farther away):

Ilia Malinin's clip of his 4Lo in practice last week (rink looks like Great Park Ice in Irvine, CA): https://www.instagram.com/p/CO_YhgFH2uI/

 

[olympic]

Has Zhou said he’s planning to retire after this year? He’s only 20. That’s quite young for retirement for a man.

I believe Zhou put off university to prepare for 2022, didn’t he? I can’t imagine him indefinitely postponing university to compete