U.S. Ladies [#19]: Do You Know the Way to San Jose?

[leafygreens]

Medvedeva struggled in an early comp, but she and Zagitova, who is trying to strike while the iron is hot, and like the Japanese Ladies, have at least five competitors in their own countries simply to get spots, and their Federations are watching closely. Tutberidze's women are also trained more intensely, and they have the teenaged knees to withstand that training, so that even when they aren't spot on, they have a lot in the tank.

Their struggles are enough to beat Wagner, who's content has not really been upped in a few seasons.

For fun I had a look at the personal best rankings. Just in 2017, Five skaters have already beat Wagner's highest ever combined score (2016) and a sixth was within one point of this score. Judging by Wagner's most recent outings - WTT, Worlds, and the club comp with almost the same program- and considering the number of those on the rise already by this summer, I can't see her getting close to the Olympic podium.

Looking at the line up for Rostelecom, I think Nagasu or Bell have as much of a chance of bronzing behind Medvedeva and Higuchi; as Wagner has of bronzing behind Osmond and Chen. For Nagasu and Bell, NHK seems less competitive behind Medvedeva and Miyahara, than Skate America for Wagner with Daleman, Chen and Miyahara competing. Of course there will be some surprises along the way. These are just my first thoughts from looking at the rosters.

As for her third use of ML music- There is something to be said about creating excitement among the audience and playing with that energy. It can help to lift a competitor to a great performance, in turn giving great marks. With such a stale program, I think the only way she can top her world silver performance is to strongly increase her technical merit. She has about maxed out with the artistry. She could do that with spins and was supposed to be working on them, but that did not come through at all in this week's competition.

 

[VGThuy]

I know it doesn't matter if skating fans are bored with the program because it will be a lot of people's first time seeing that program at the Olympics (assuming she's on the team), and the judges may not care that much. What really matters is that Ashley herself isn't bored by MR this season and if she skates it every time with the same eager excitement that she's showing us something new and amazing, then I think that can spread to the audiences who've seen her do it like 10 times already. I am a bit disappointed that she isn't upping the ante, but I think we all need to maybe temper our expectations and maybe realize they're still a work in progress or accept that yes this is what she's capable of and she just needs to do what she plans to do as best as she possibly ban and let the chips fall where it may.

 

[kwanfan1818]

e, in turn giving great marks. With such a stale program, I think the only way she can top her world silver performance is to strongly increase her technical merit. She has about maxed out with the artistry. She could do that with spins and was supposed to be working on them, but that did not come through at all in this week's competition.

And this pertains to periodization how?

Medvedeva and Zagitova don't have a choice, through a combination of their coach, their Federation, their ages, and their internal competition. Only Japanese skaters are in the same boat with regards to internal competition.

Wagner has a choice, through a combination of her coach, her Federation, her age, and her internal competition.

ETA: The Japanese criteria, posted by @RoseRed, are:

the first spot goes to the skater who wins Nationals and the second spot will be between the skaters who place 2nd and 3rd at Nationals based on:
a) the skater who had the best finish in the GPF
b) if neither competes there, the world ranking, season ranking and season best score at the time of Nationals

So the incentives there are:

1. To win/peak for Nationals
2. To do extremely well in GP and qualify for GPF



3. To get WS points from CS events and senior B's or to, retroactively to receive a highly inflated SB at Lombardia and hope that the National Champion is the only Japanese Lady at GPF.

So, yes, there is an incentive towards periodization there.

 

[Tesla]

I wonder if Ashley is reusing MR because of her difficulty learning choreography. I just want her to do what’s best for her.

 

[ZilphaK]

Medvedeva and Zagitova must not do periodization because they are on fire right out of the gate.

They are also both 11 years old...or something like that.

they have the teenaged knees to withstand

NEVER EVER underestimate the handicap that not having teenaged knees can be. Also? Teenaged Knees is a great name for a garage band.

I know it doesn't matter if skating fans are bored with the program because it will be a lot of people's first time seeing that program at the Olympics

This. Exactly. I'd wager that 99% of the people watching the Olympics ladies skating are going to be 4-year fans, and they are going to go berserk when she hits those diva poses/faces. Whoever is commentating is going to have to do some awfully convincing, fancy-pants "Let me explain IJS to you!" talking to explain why back-loading a program and landing fully-rotated whoop-dee-loops wins over Satine's Oscar Moment on ice. (I actually LOVE MR and am thrilled if it causes even half thee hooplah I think it's going to cause on the Interwebs.)

 

[DimaToe]

I find your assessment of the skating skills rather intriguing. I would never have thought Wagner and Chen are on the same level. In fact I always thought Wagner is one of the weaker US ladies in the ss dept.

Yeah Wagner does have the tendency to skate on 2 feet more than the other top women and she uses her flats more often, but she also skates her programs smoothly between elements and choreo, while Chen doesn’t have that same tendency because her jumps have a “harder” landing, and while she does hit some beautiful positions and has more in between skating than Wagner, it kind of does level their skating skills for me, maybe I’m thinking of skating skills as a different thing than what they actually are, but then again that’s why I’m not a judge

 

[VGThuy]

To me, Wagner is missing that ease and flow I often associate with skaters who are known to have excellent skating skills. I find that Chen is closer to those skaters than Wagner is.

 

[AxelAnnie]

I wonder if Ashley is reusing MR because of her difficulty learning choreography. I just want her to do what’s best for her.

Does she have a problem learning new choreo? Or is that an assertion on your part?

 

[toddlj]

Does she have a problem learning new choreo? Or is that an assertion on your part?

ETA: I found a quote... but yes, she has said she has trouble with choreo and she has theorized that it might be exacerbated by her multiple past concussions.

“The concussions definitely rewired my brain in the way that I process information,” Wagner said. “My short-term memory is not that incredible; talking to me is a little bit like talking to Dory from “Finding Nemo” [laughing]. It’s really affected me in the way that I learn programs because you have to memorize this choreography and the choreography is very intricate. So for me, retraining my brain to be able to learn choreography and be able to remember it, that’s probably my biggest challenge.”

http://www.excellesports.com/news/ashley-wagner-concussions-body-espn/

 

[VGThuy]

I figure this belongs here since she’s a U.S. lady, Michelle Kwan has her double axel back:

https://instagram.com/p/BZ2NdmhBmVz/

And a double Sal:

https://www.instagram.com/p/BZmX3czhqKz/

And her doing a hydro blade move:

https://www.instagram.com/p/BZUanoIBBMV/

 

[Dobre]

I'm finding the conversation about Ashley a bit odd.

1. Ashley is ready early. She is consistently ready early. She is the most consistently ready early female skater I can think of besides Medvedeva. Almost always has one of her best skates at either Skate America or Skate Canada, when most athletes are not yet ready.

2. I never bet against Ashley on the GP. I never bet on Ashley at Worlds. It has nothing to do with who medaled at Worlds for me. It has to do with Ashley usually being ready before the field and at her best on North American soil. She may not medal on the GP this season. The ladies fields are all strong, and looking at the lineups, they will be tough. But I'll be predicting her on the podium at SC. I made the mistake of not doing it three years ago. She medaled. I predicted her on the podium the following year. She won. Her finishes at Worlds the years before had zilch to do with how ready she was at SC.

 

[DimaToe]

I figure this belongs here since she’s a U.S. lady, Michelle Kwan has her double axel back:

https://instagram.com/p/BZ2NdmhBmVz/

And a double Sal:

https://www.instagram.com/p/BZmX3czhqKz/

And her doing a hydro blade move:

https://www.instagram.com/p/BZUanoIBBMV/

Michelle Kwan for the 3rd Olympic spot?

 

[ChiquitaBanana]

Medvedeva and Zagitova must not do periodization because they are on fire right out of the gate. Honestly Mirai seems to already be as well. It seems to be becoming a more dated theory that you must save your best only for the big show.

They were less than perfect at their test skate neither. Periodization is not about having one (or two if the plan is based on two peaks) perfect skate you must save for these times. It's about getting your mind and body ready for a certain time frame. Too much will induce injuties, too little, underperformance. That is said, by October, the performances should be skated with more confidence. If not, then you could blame their respective teams for not having well planned the season.

The Russians periodize much more than the USA athletes as science in sports is a long tradition there.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

I figure this belongs here since she’s a U.S. lady, Michelle Kwan has her double axel back:

https://instagram.com/p/BZ2NdmhBmVz/

And a double Sal:

https://www.instagram.com/p/BZmX3czhqKz/

And her doing a hydro blade move:

https://www.instagram.com/p/BZUanoIBBMV/

Wow.. her 2 axel is better than ever!!!!! She almost seems faster than when she was competing.

Never thought Id live to see a day where The Kween calls herself "Grandma." LOL

I used to drive up Lake Arrowhead to see if I could spy on her..... sighhhhhhhh

 

[mrinalini]

I figure this belongs here since she’s a U.S. lady, Michelle Kwan has her double axel back:

https://instagram.com/p/BZ2NdmhBmVz/

And a double Sal:

https://www.instagram.com/p/BZmX3czhqKz/

And her doing a hydro blade move:

https://www.instagram.com/p/BZUanoIBBMV/

Ahh...that double axel is as gorgeous as ever! And even though the sal wasn't a triple, it reminded me of how easy and buttery Michelle's were at her peak.

Truly one of the most well-rounded ladies' skaters of any era or country, EVER.

 

[toddlj]

Last I checked this is not a "US ladies all suck" thread. The relentless negativity in this thread is very off-putting. If past is prologue, there is plenty of evidence that October is not equal to February. I reiterate... I refuse to write off the US ladies.

 

[Coco]

It's really hard to compare perceptions of skaters now vs perceptions of 6.0 skaters. It's also quite difficult to discuss this without insulting 6.0 skaters.

Scads of UR'd jumps went unnoticed, even by fans, and were counted as clean. Doubling a jump wasn't a huge deal if it only happened once. You could get by without even a real combination sometimes. Steps and spins were WAY easier...

Programs have fundamentally changed as a result of IJS, and US skaters haven't caught up yet.

So keep in mind that whatever Ashley is doing, it is way more than her 6.0 US Lady predecessors were doing in October, even in their prime.

 

[Wyliefan]

I never bet against Ashley on the GP. I never bet on Ashley at Worlds.

This reminded me of one of my favorite skating memories, that SP of hers at Worlds 2016. I had talked myself out of any hope for her to medal, I refused to get excited, I watched her with half a jaded eye -- and then she nailed it, and she went crazy with joy, and I went crazy with joy. That was the best. However she does this year or any other year (if she stays in), I'll always treasure that memory.

 

[Bellanca]

Last I checked this is not a "US ladies all suck" thread. The relentless negativity in this thread is very off-putting. If past is prologue, there is plenty of evidence that October is not equal to February. I reiterate... I refuse to write off the US ladies.

I agree. I, too, refuse to write them off. Also, I don't believe the U.S. ladies are in such complete dire straits as to warrant this over-the-top, doomsday, hand-wringing, pearl-clutching reaction. The U.S. does have depth and talent - they do. They are capable. It's just that (and this has been said a million times, but worth repeating and to remind) the rest of the world is a whole lot better, much more competitive with their own impressive talents and depth which has made their programs and athletes the one to beat and emulate. Think of Karen, Mariah, Bradie and the young ladies coming up for the U.S.A. Look at what Mirai has been doing, etc. These days may not be the heydays, true, but this is not the time to fret or panic - far from it. The sport is very competitive right now which is cause for celebration. The U.S. ladies' discipline is functional, not dysfunctional. They're going to be alright. Have a little faith!

 

[Jammers]

I agree. I, too, refuse to write them off. Also, I don't believe the U.S. ladies are in such complete dire straits as to warrant this over-the-top, doomsday, hand-wringing, pearl-clutching reaction. The U.S. does have depth and talent - they do. They are capable. It's just that (and this has been said a million times, but worth repeating and to remind) the rest of the world is a whole lot better, much more competitive with their own impressive talents and depth which has made their programs and athletes the one to beat and emulate. Think of Karen, Mariah, Bradie and the young ladies coming up for the U.S.A. Look at what Mirai has been doing, etc. These days may not be the heydays, true, but this is not the time to fret or panic - far from it. The sport is very competitive right now which is cause for celebration. The U.S. ladies' discipline is functional, not dysfunctional. They're going to be alright. Have a little faith!

The US does not have depth right now with the Ladies. With the exception of Karen there is no other US lady at the age of 15-20 who is a big threat internationally. Most of the contenders are 21 or older who will most likely not even be around for 2022. I want to finally see some of the talent in Juniors take hold and start not just winning medals again on the JGP but winning events because the future looks bleak. I mean the fact that girls who were on the US podium way back in 2008 are still top contenders for the Olympic team despite rather lackluster results over the last few years tells you about the lack of qualitly depth because in a country with depth those girls would be in the same boat as someone like Alena Leonova as in they were passed up years ago.

 

[Bellanca]

The US does not have depth right now with the Ladies. With the exception of Karen there is no other US lady at the age of 15-20 who is a big threat internationally. Most of the contenders are 21 or older who will most likely not even be around for 2022. I want to finally see some of the talent in Juniors take hold and start not just winning medals again on the JGP but winning events because the future looks bleak. I mean the fact that girls who were on the US podium way back in 2008 are still top contenders for the Olympic team despite rather lackluster results over the last few years tells you about the lack of qualitly depth because in a country with depth those girls would be in the same boat as someone like Alena Leonova as in they were passed up years ago.

To be fair, I can meet you halfway (and see your point) re the 2008 ladies carrying the water for the program. One of the more cringe-worthy bad habits USFS has had is looking to the past for future success. Always a ‘don’t do.’ Now, personally, I think it is great that Mirai has chosen to stay competitive through another quad, but I think, IMHO, it has a bit more to do than just her the love for the sport, same goes for Ashley. It’s certainly a large part of it, to be sure, but being ‘selected’ for the team, in AW’s case, and at least in the U.S.A. is not the ideal situation. Most athletes would still choose to have been on that podium, initially. Again, the joy and love for the sport is a large part of it, without a doubt. I don’t want that sentiment to get lost in my comment, but I think it is safe to assume that there is apparently a lot of Sochi spillover for these two ladies. I believe this alone is mostly responsible for propelling them forward, to go out and prove something, if only for themselves, and to settle some unfinished business and possibly bury a demon or two.

I’ve said it myself at least a million times, that the program needs to continuously move forward and not rely on the more ‘seasoned’ talents. One could argue that Ashley and Mirai are the shiniest stars and so it is the wise call or decision to make, and I can see that up to a point, but eventually, common sense about a program’s viability needs to take root.

If you are suggesting that there is no depth internationally to challenge the Russian, Canadian and Japanese federations… well, ok, maybe not this quad as far as winning Oly gold goes, but, you never know, things happen. I still contend that the U.S. has depth. It is youthful, but it is there. USFS needs to have the confidence to tap into it and move it along.

Sports have an ebb and flow, a cyclical nature to them, it is rare that any country dominates a sport until the end-times.

 

[B.Cooper]

ETA: I found a quote... but yes, she has said she has trouble with choreo and she has theorized that it might be exacerbated by her multiple past concussions.

“The concussions definitely rewired my brain in the way that I process information,” Wagner said. “My short-term memory is not that incredible; talking to me is a little bit like talking to Dory from “Finding Nemo” [laughing]. It’s really affected me in the way that I learn programs because you have to memorize this choreography and the choreography is very intricate. So for me, retraining my brain to be able to learn choreography and be able to remember it, that’s probably my biggest challenge.”

http://www.excellesports.com/news/ashley-wagner-concussions-body-espn/

It's only recently that Wagner has talked about her concussions (and her short term memory problems), a timely topic discussion IMO, as she chose to not contribute to the series of 2016 articles on IceNetwork, and I do know that the authors of these articles reached out to a large pool of elite USFS skaters for comment:

http://web.icenetwork.com/news/2016/02/02/163386260/concussions-in-figure-skating-how-they-happen

http://web.icenetwork.com/news/2016/02/08/163741802/concussions-in-figure-skating-how-to-treat-them

http://web.icenetwork.com/news/2016...ussions-in-figure-skating-how-to-prevent-them

and lastly the article on Josh Farris:
http://web.icenetwork.com/news/2016/07/01/187300788/long-battle-with-concussions-ends-farris-career

Not that Wagner has really discussed or mentioned any of this before, but personally, I think the reason Wagner is going back to Moulin Rouge has much less to do with perceived short term memory issues, but rather it is easier to go back to a well received program, that had success with international judges, rather than to expose herself to criticism to new music/program, La La Land, that my guess, was not well received at the Champs Camp event.

Wagner, like most elite skaters, have late spring and early summer commitments (i.e. SOI, sponsors,etc) and many of the elite skaters get new programs in June and July once much of those commitments are met. Many elite skaters not really begin training their programs i.e. periodization , until mid-August, giving them about 2 months before the SGP events start (many ISP skaters for USFS now choose to do the Sr B events as well, to get early feedback before the SGP events begin...Wagner has rarely done Sr B events, and for that matter, in the last few years, I would guess going back to the 2010 season, rarely does summer club competitions...she used to do those with Shirley Hughes and Priscilla Hill).

She did not seem to struggle over the years with getting the choreography into the programs....in fact, I disagree with Wagner's statement....it is much less about the choreo, as she does not leave choreo out of her programs .... but rather about having the confidence to complete the jumps successfully in the programs (i.e. no two footing, no UR, completing the combinations). She rarely would "miss a beat" when it comes to the performance side of a program...her weakness over the years has been when she misses a jump, that she tends to let go of the technical program...she gets rattled. That weakness has been less apparent as she has gotten older.

And, honestly, Raf does not train his athletes in much the same way many other coaches do...many coaches focus on full complete run throughs of programs...Raf emphasizes sections of programs...he does have skaters run full programs, but less often than someone like Carroll or Zakrajsek.

So, I think the return to Moulin Rouge has very little to do with memory issues, and more to do with going back to something that is familiar, sort of like a comfy tennis shoe, and has previous traction with judges.

 

[AxelAnnie]

I agree. I, too, refuse to write them off. Also, I don't believe the U.S. ladies are in such complete dire straits as to warrant this over-the-top, doomsday, hand-wringing, pearl-clutching reaction. The U.S. does have depth and talent - they do. They are capable. It's just that (and this has been said a million times, but worth repeating and to remind) the rest of the world is a whole lot better, much more competitive with their own impressive talents and depth which has made their programs and athletes the one to beat and emulate. Think of Karen, Mariah, Bradie and the young ladies coming up for the U.S.A. Look at what Mirai has been doing, etc. These days may not be the heydays, true, but this is not the time to fret or panic - far from it. The sport is very competitive right now which is cause for celebration. The U.S. ladies' discipline is functional, not dysfunctional. They're going to be alright. Have a little faith!

I don't see the US Ladies catching up any time soon. That is just my opinion. The Russians have found a winning formula........And then you throw the very competent Japanese ladies in....the US is pretty low on the totem pole. And to top it off............the Canadian Ladies came out of left field and squished the competition at Worlds.

On any given day, Ashley and Karen can be competitive. But over the long run, they aren't consistent enough. That leaves Marai.........who good for her, will land a Triple Axel in a competition or two, but has not cured her other problems (or so it seems).

Just for the record........I love Ashley and Karen. But they are going to have to up their ante a lot, and their consistency even more, to be competitive IMO.

 

[Tinami Amori]

I reiterate... I refuse to write off the US ladies.

I also don't agree that Wagner will not medal at the 2 upcoming GP Events. Both are held in North America. For the last 3 years (2014 - 2016) she medals in North American events, @ 2 GP and 1 Worlds. Strangely she did not medal (4th, 5th, 7th) at International Events during same years.. I don't understand why it is so.. she is proud to be an "army brat", which is a positive term and means well adjusted to new surroundings, travel-savvy, quick on the move, etc..

 

[Bellanca]

I don't see the US Ladies catching up any time soon. That is just my opinion. The Russians have found a winning formula........And then you throw the very competent Japanese ladies in....the US is pretty low on the totem pole. And to top it off............the Canadian Ladies came out of left field and squished the competition at Worlds.

On any given day, Ashley and Karen can be competitive. But over the long run, they aren't consistent enough. That leaves Marai.........who good for her, will land a Triple Axel in a competition or two, but has not cured her other problems (or so it seems).

Just for the record........I love Ashley and Karen. But they are going to have to up their ante a lot, and their consistency even more, to be competitive IMO.

Good points.

For this quad, it is better to see the glass half full, encourage USFS to look forward, not back.

 

[RoseRed]

Not that Wagner has really discussed or mentioned any of this before, but personally, I think the reason Wagner is going back to Moulin Rouge has much less to do with perceived short term memory issues, but rather it is easier to go back to a well received program, that had success with international judges, rather than to expose herself to criticism to new music/program, La La Land, that my guess, was not well received at the Champs Camp event.

She didn't skate La La Land at Champs camp. She said she'd basically already decided to go back to Moulin Rouge and offered to show them La La Land in case they disagreed, but they didn't. She said something about starting to feel like the La La Land program was good, but not great and she wanted a character with more depth and so she asked Raf about it and he told her to put on the Moulin Rouge music. Apparently as soon as she started the program, they both knew it should be Moulin Rouge.

 

[Sylvia]

It's only recently that Wagner has talked about her concussions (and her short term memory problems), a timely topic discussion IMO, as she chose to not contribute to the series of 2016 articles on IceNetwork ...

I believe Ashley first spoke to Bonnie Ford for an article about concussions that was published in late March 2016 -- this is the link that was posted in a GSD thread back then: http://www.espn.com/olympics/story/...are-concussion-concerns-roundtable-discussion

Re. the Southern California Interclub Association Invitational Series Final club competition in Paramount, CA this past weekend: I'm informed that Wagner scored 133.47 (64.94 TES/68.53 PCS) in her FS and was credited with landing 6 triples cleanly (3Lz got an ! edge warning); first spin was called level 3 and she received level 4s on her other 2 spins and footwork.

 

[snoopyskater]

I figure this belongs here since she’s a U.S. lady, Michelle Kwan has her double axel back:

https://instagram.com/p/BZ2NdmhBmVz/

And a double Sal:

https://www.instagram.com/p/BZmX3czhqKz/

And her doing a hydro blade move:

https://www.instagram.com/p/BZUanoIBBMV/

I think she needs to pull a Deanna Stellato, return as a pair skater, and get that Olympic gold medal we all want for her.

 

[Tinami Amori]

She didn't skate La La Land at Champs camp. She said she'd basically already decided to go back to Moulin Rouge and offered to show them La La Land in case they disagreed, but they didn't. She said something about starting to feel like the La La Land program was good, but not great and she wanted a character with more depth and so she asked Raf about it and he told her to put on the Moulin Rouge music.

Not questioning her right to feel what she wants to feel, but imho the girl in La-La-Land is more complex intellectually and the issues in front of her (in the 21st century) than a cabaret actress (in the late 19th century), who has to make a choice between a rich but unwanted lover and a poor but desired lover.

 

[AxelAnnie]

She didn't skate La La Land at Champs camp. She said she'd basically already decided to go back to Moulin Rouge and offered to show them La La Land in case they disagreed, but they didn't. She said something about starting to feel like the La La Land program was good, but not great and she wanted a character with more depth and so she asked Raf about it and he told her to put on the Moulin Rouge music. Apparently as soon as she started the program, they both knew it should be Moulin Rouge.

Great information. From whence did it come?