What if Mao Asada and Julia Lipnitskaya had both skated clean in Sochi?

[olympic]

There is a lull of a couple of weeks in FS world, so I thought I'd contribute a trivial thread to the Trash Can

I am curious about people's opinions on how Mao Asada and Julia Lipnitskaya have placed in Sochi had they both skated clean at Sochi?

Considering the monster scores doled out to them at 2014 Worlds in the SP, I think they would have both been on the podium, but who would've joined them? Yu Na Kim? Would Adelina Sotnikova's scores have been as high had Julia scored well? I don't see 2 RUS women medalling. It seems like the RUS Fed was behind Julia after the team event, and if Adelina had been the #2, would the judges have taken her to task on rotations and edge calls?

1. Mao Asada
2. Yu Na Kim
3. Julia Lipnitskaya

I also don't see a scenario with Carolina Kostner on the podium

 

[Coco]

 

[withwings]

Agree, Carolina Costner would have not be on scenario.

 

[Sylvia]

Thread from 2023:

Sochi 2014 Women

Well a discussion's been started because of Sotnikova's interview. What was your podium at the time? Has it changed 9 years down the line?

www.fsuniverse.net

Asada's 3rd place FS in the individual event (142.71, skating #12 of 24) is linked in my post #3.

Lipnitskaya's Team Figure Skating FS, 1st place (141.51): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ke0iusvydl8

 

[jägerbomb]

I actually think Sotnikova's overall skating has aged better than Lipnitskaya's.

Particularly, the elements in Sotnikova's short program were very strong, and Lipnitskaya's basic skating is shockingly weak. I find this to be the case watching most Eteri skaters of the past ten years, to be honest.

Lipnitskaya receiving a bronze medal over a clean Kostner is somehow an even worse result than what the judges (and technical panel) gave us in Sochi.

 

[skateboy]

I don't see a situation where Mao would have beaten Yuna in Sochi. Yuna was at her peak and Mao, while really good, had certain flaws in her technique and general flow across the ice. I think the podium might have been:

Yuna
Mao
Julia

 

[On My Own]

I would assume

1. Mao
2. Yuna
3. Kostner

With the admission that Lipnitskaya was in Russia, but I think these three were considered the best skaters in the world at that point.

 

[On My Own]

Particularly, the elements in Sotnikova's short program were very strong, and Lipnitskaya's basic skating is shockingly weak. I find this to be the case watching most Eteri skaters of the past ten years, to be honest.

Agree actually, although I thought Lipnitskaya was better on basic skating than most Eteri girls. But I'm not too sure if Sotnikova's basic skating itself was any good.

Removing the "reputation/favoritism" component, if we say all skaters went clean, I would say:

1. Mao - Best SP choreography, highest tech content in the LP, the best step sequences of the event.
2. Adelina - Strong technical elements, especially spins, high jumping, turned on the performances for the night - weaker basic skating than much of the actual top 6 can make a case for her to be third.
3. Yuna - best combination of programs for me, the best jump technique and some of the best basic skating of the event, and I actually think she was the most polished performer of the lot, but there's no significant advantage on either tech or artistry, IMO - she should have found ways to make that LP better with the spins and more CoP-friendly jump content, she plainly couldn't do a layback properly anymore yet still included it in her LP (SP was understandable, because it was a requirement back then IIRC).

 

[olympic]

I don't see a situation where Mao would have beaten Yuna in Sochi. Yuna was at her peak and Mao, while really good, had certain flaws in her technique and general flow across the ice. I think the podium might have been:

Yuna
Mao
Julia

Mao skated a blinder SP at 2014 Worlds, scoring a WR. A skate like that, combined with her LP at Sochi might have sealed the deal though

 

[Jarrett]

I don’t see how anyone would qualify Yuna as in peak form in Sochi. Mao definitely 100% could have beat her if she was clean.

 

[On My Own]

I will say that, IMO, Yuna's basic skating looked the best it ever did at those Olympics. Really clean, deep edges on most of her steps, done with sharpness in the LP at that.

 

[skateboy]

Mao skated a blinder SP at 2014 Worlds, scoring a WR. A skate like that, combined with her LP at Sochi might have sealed the deal though

Smacking my head... geez. I was thinking of 2010 Vancouver Yuna, not the Yuna of 2014.

Never mind. I've changed my order to:

1) Mao
2) Yuna
3) Julia

 

[caseyedwards]

Yuna did triple salchow double toe she wasn’t serious

 

[Sylvia]

Yuna did triple salchow double toe she wasn’t serious

Yuna landed 3Lz+3T in both her SP and FS.

https://www.isuresults.com/results/owg2014/owg14_Ladies_SP_Scores.pdf
https://www.isuresults.com/results/owg2014/owg14_Ladies_FS_Scores.pdf

 

[Private Citizen]

Yuna landed 3Lz+3T in both her SP and FS.

Yes, but her lack of a triple loop, plus the rule change limiting double axels to two repetitions, meant she had to take out her 2A+3T and replace it with a 3S+2T. She could no longer double axel her way to gold the way she did in 2010.

CE's point stands with me. Kim was far too conservative in her technical content, and most of the people who think she deserved better choose to ignore that she couldn't do what is a basic jump for most skaters. She also consistently deserved an "e" call on her flip .

 

[On My Own]

Yuna did triple salchow double toe she wasn’t serious

Kostner did 3T+2T in her LP, and yet people think she should have won.

Yuna's LP was spread better composition-wise than almost every other skater in the top 6, apart from Gold she was the only one to do a jump as her second-to-last element, which should definitely be a point in her favour in terms of difficulty. What Sotnikova, Asada, Kostner skated was a very mechanical CoP layout, knock all the jumps out and then perform. Sotnikova especially crammed the remaining two spins of her program AND the ChSq AND the step sequence at the very end.

Yuna should have taken Mao's spin strategy in the LP. She showed a good flying camel, as in the SP. Yet she chose to do a layback instead.

 

[On My Own]

She also consistently deserved an "e" call on her flip .

For someone who doesn't know what an edge is, sure.

Yes, but her lack of a triple loop, plus the rule change limiting double axels to two repetitions, meant she had to take out her 2A+3T and replace it with a 3S+2T. She could no longer double axel her way to gold the way she did in 2010.

She actually could do a 2A+3T+2T combo if she'd chosen.

She didn't need higher tech content to win, btw. Skating skill is still tech. Ice coverage and patterning is still tech. Element distribution is still tech. Posture is still tech. Yuna was better on all those regards compared to Sotnikova.

 

[caseyedwards]

Yuna landed 3Lz+3T in both her SP and FS.

https://www.isuresults.com/results/owg2014/owg14_Ladies_SP_Scores.pdf
https://www.isuresults.com/results/owg2014/owg14_Ladies_FS_Scores.pdf

Other than that She was too conservative

1. Mao
2. Julia
3. Adelina

4 and 5 Yuna and Carolina

 

[On My Own]

3. Adelina

So she's not conservative in the SP with her 3T+3T because?

 

[caseyedwards]

So she's not conservative in the SP with her 3T+3T because?

Her conservativism in sp outweighed by boldness in FS

 

[On My Own]

Anyway, I dug up a post on goldenskate from some guy who used to rant a lot about the "lost artistry" of skating made a long time back. Here's the layout he suggested for Yuna:

3Lz+3T
3F
2A+2T+2Lo
2A+3Tx
3Lzx
3Sx
2Lzx

So if she added level 4 steps, along with FCSp4, FCCoSp4, and CCoSp4, it would give her a BV that was only 2 points lower than Sotnikova's (assuming I got the rules right anyway). And then technical content usually equates to PCS and GOE, so...

 

[Private Citizen]

She actually could do a 2A+3T+2T combo if she'd chosen.

Nope, not unless she wanted to do a double lutz as her seventh jumping pass.

Two lutzes (one with 3T), a lip, two axels, and a salchow. Her oniy legal options for the seventh pass were a second lip, salchow, or toe.

In 2010, she got around this by doing three double axels, but that loophole was closed. Her lack of a 3loop finally (deservedly) bit in her ass, in a big way.

She didn't need higher tech content to win, btw

Not according to the judges or the record books. .

But while we’re expressing opinions, I think she was closer to third or even fourth than first.

 

[On My Own]

Nope, not unless she wanted to do a double lutz as her seventh jumping pass.

So yes?

See post above.

Not according to the judges or the record books. .

Yep, like Kaori Sakamoto's Lutz, that you're so sure is a flutz but would mark as lutz because of what you saw on camera anyway...

I think

Revelation.

 

[Coco]

Yuna's skating was great, but her spins were a bit of a regression from 2010, even a bit from 2013. She had to count an L3 layback twice (2.4 vs 2.7). If she'd been able to do an L4layback in the SP and an L4 flying camel as her spin in one position for the FS, that would have increased her score by 1.1.

This doesn't really close the 5.48 gap but if both step sequences had been L4, that would have added another 1.2, plus I believe it would have doubled her GOE since the GOE factor for L4 steps was a full point, but only .5 for lower levels. If I'm right, that's another 2.28 points, so 4.58...those "simple" changes get her really close.

So if both Mao and Julia had skating clean, I do think Julia would have placed higher than Mao in the SP, but behind her in the FS with Mao having a slight edge overall.

I give a slight edge to Mao overall as her BV in the FS was about 5 points higher.

Julia would have been scored higher than Mao on components and GOE in both programs. And she would have won the SP because Mao's 3a advantage was eaten into by her lack of a 3-3.

Where they would have placed relative to their competitors...hmm. I'm not sure either of them would have medaled.

Given with how both ladies performed in Sochi, it is difficult to defend Julia having components higher than Mao in the FS. Even if they had both been clean, it is unfathomable to me and it just proves components can be used however judges want to use them. In Sochi, Mao skated an apparent blinder, despite two < and one "e" but Julia fell once and fell out of another jump and she was noticeably slower than in the team final. For the FS, Mao had the higher Skating Skills and P/E mark, but not by enough of a margin to overcome Julia's advantage in Transitions, Choreo/Comp & Interpretation.

As for how it played out...If you subscribe to the conspiracy theory that one podium spot was reserved for a Russian lady, Lipnitskaya skating before Sotnikova in the SP was very helpful for Adelina, imo. No one had to save marks for Julia while judging Adelina.

If this was true, though, it hurt Mao in the FS as she ended up behind Julia in PCS for the FS and over all by 2.35.

Lipnitskaya skated first in the final group for the FS, before Adelina. She was in 2nd place when Adelina skated, ahead of all but Kostner. Gold ended up ahead of Lip by 1.56 overall, but she skated after Adelina had effectively clinched a medal with only Gold, Wagner and Kim left to skate. Wagner was behind Sotnikova by ~9 points and had no real hope of passing her.

Gold was really kind of lowballed at this competition.

 

[On My Own]

This doesn't really close the 5.48 gap but if both step sequences had been L4, that would have added another 1.2, plus I believe it would have doubled her GOE since the GOE factor for L4 steps was a full point, but only .5 for lower levels. If I'm right, that's another 2.28 points, so 4.58...those "simple" changes get her really close.

Not just that, Adelina's steps actually weren't clean in comp. She really wasn't capable of doing level 4 steps.

I believe someone had made the point that, compared to Mao/Yuna/Kostner, Sotnikova's steps were actually shorter in the LP. Yet she still, supposedly, managed to knock the requirements out and get the same level 4 as Mao and Kostner, despite having worse skating skills than all three of them. And mind you this is not a conspiracy theory necessarily, even if you don't know steps and turns, you can see hers are laboured many times over.

This already brings her down in competition as it was skated.

And she would have won the SP because Mao's 3a advantage was eaten into by her lack of a 3-3.

She also would have deserved the highest PCS by far IMO.

Simply technically, I thought her layback had better choreography than Sotnikova's, and she certainly did the sideways position better than Sotnikova. Sotnikova really only had the one-handed Biellmann in her layback, in comparison. ETA: Oh, although, I will say on rewatch, I'm not sure Mao deserved that level 4 on her camel in the LP

If [Yuna]'d been able to do an L4layback in the SP and an L4 flying camel as her spin in one position for the FS, that would have increased her score by 1.1.

She would have needed to retrain the acceleration feature, because she could no longer do Biellmann.

Both she and Mao used to have much better finish than Sotnikova on their spins btw. You can see how much better the control on the exits was in their performances, usually. This comes with time.

I really don't get Kostner's... anything at Sochi, but I will definitely say that technically she was inferior to all of Mao/Yuna/Sotnikova. Her 3Lo, 3T+2T, and 3S+2T+2T were all flawed in the LP, and I definitely did not think she had a well-composed LP. Her edge quality was the best in the LP steps, but I didn't necessarily care for the choreography and the rhythmic complexity in those steps. Mao's was much superior overall, and Yuna's tango feel came across much better to me.

 

[LilJen]

Not just that, Adelina's steps actually weren't clean in comp. She really wasn't capable of doing level 4 steps.

I believe someone had made the point that, compared to Mao/Yuna/Kostner, Sotnikova's steps were actually shorter in the LP. Yet she still, supposedly, managed to knock the requirements out and get the same level 4 as Mao and Kostner, despite having worse skating skills than all three of them. And mind you this is not a conspiracy theory necessarily, even if you don't know steps and turns, you can see hers are laboured many times over.

Hey, one tech panel’s “labored” is another tech panel’s “full use of upper body.”

I don’t really have an answer to the original question, but I just love how skate nerdy this thread is.

 

[bardtoob]

Yuna landed 3Lz+3T in both her SP and FS.

https://www.isuresults.com/results/owg2014/owg14_Ladies_SP_Scores.pdf
https://www.isuresults.com/results/owg2014/owg14_Ladies_FS_Scores.pdf

Stunning how well Gracie Gold actually skated, yet is rarely mentioned in these discussions.

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.

youtu.be

found this while trying to find the elusive footage of Gracie's SP from Sochi.

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.

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However, Gracie has always been a class act.

''I competed against Adelina for many years,'' Gold said. ''I loved her. She's still a sweetheart. I've done shows with her. A lot of Russians, I've found them to be kind of lovely people despite the stigma'' of doping that has become associated with them.

https://www.si.com/olympics/2017/01/12/ap-oly-fig-russia-gold

 

[On My Own]

I don’t really have an answer to the original question, but I just love how skate nerdy this thread is.

I really love being "skate nerdy" for competitions between 2006-2014 tbh. It's the ones after that which fill me with feelings that are best described as "stabby stab".

 

[olympic]

BTW. Interesting that RUS had only 2 women at Sochi, competition inside Russia. I assume their fed would’ve sent Pogorilaya if qualifying 3.

Another note to make is that the JPN women all took themselves out of the competition in the SP. Worth mentioning that Akiko may have made the final group if clean. Don’t think she would have beat Gracie here though

 

[Coco]

2013 Worlds SP was a tragic disaster for the Russian ladies. I believe Sotnikova was slightly underscored in the FS, or scored harshly. Not sure it would have made a difference.

Elena Radionova was too young for Sochi, although she did skate in the Gala. So I think you are right, it would have been Anna.